Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyFan32]

"Return to normalcy" is really multi-factorial... and return to normal at Disney includes other layers.

1. What the public health experts say: This is providing the general frame work for government policy, for large companies, etc. It is likely to progress but move slowly. I doubt that they will be saying by July 1st, "ok, everyone go back to normal." But they will gradually update guidance. Many States won't follow it, just as they already don't follow it. My "best guess" -- By summer, "masks are entirely discretionary for vaccinated individuals in small and medium group settings, but masks and social distancing should be continued in large groups that include a significant proportion of unvaccinated individuals" -- That's purely an educated guess. But I'm guessing the CDC continues to recommend masking and social distancing in large gatherings like sports stadiums and theme parks, through the summer.
2. Public attitudes in compliance with public health recommendations: With 50-60% of Americans, 70%+ of American adults, potentially vaccinated by summer... you may simply get to a point where a threshold of people won't go along with many measures. Especially if the case/death numbers are very low. So public health experts may still insist that masks are necessary in large gatherings, but it may become unenforceable if the public doesn't go along.
3. Public attitudes in the opposite direction: There will be members of the public who are reluctant to "go back to normal" until they are even more confident risks are gone. There will be people who still avoid gatherings, mask up.. until vaccines are available to kids... until lots of time passes and we really see Covid in the rear view mirror. Depending the number of people that fall into this category... Disney may need to balance #2 public and #3 public. So far, they have been erring more on the side of #3 -- "abundance of caution" to show the public they are safe.
4. "New Normal" -- tele-commuting is now expanded forever. There is a significant portion of the office-working population that will never go back to the physical office to the degree they did pre-Covid. Certain health precautions may become part of the new normal. Seeing how masking and social distancing has greatly reduced the flu season, some public health experts are already saying that masks should be the norm during flu season. Some degree of social distancing may become more common in the long term.
And getting back to Disney -- Not necessarily having anything to do with Covid -- But the are taking this period to reassess many of their operations. We know EMH is never coming back in its old form. Rumors that the old FP+ system may never return. etc.
5 "Staffing issues" making return difficult. WDW won't have the College Program back for a while. "Enhanced unemployment" through September has made it more difficult to find low wage workers. Even if WDW wants to increase capacity for more normalcy, they may actually run into staffing issues preventing it.

In other words.... "When will WDW return to normal" -- May never return fully to the old normal. And a lot of factors go into the pace at which they will get to the new long-term normal.

I'm scared all of this guys. I'm not ready for new normal. I want old normal soon...I don't want to wear a mask in a flu season...is social distancing will go forever as masks too years noooo...

 

[ToTBellHop]

I love graphs but yours makes Michigan look much better than it is. Michigan is the worst state bith for growth of new cases and cases oer 100,000. You misssed the one key point, population. The truth is Florida is not doing great but still is doing better than the Northeast or Michigan but needs to do better. However, if you remove those bad states, the country is doing well and I still expect a major drop in cases before the end of April, with a national average in the middle single digits. I know that sounds optimistic but it's realistic based on the supply of vaccines and the rates being vaccinated. Spring break, Passover and Easter are over and so cases should b
drop significantly just like they did after New Year's.

If history holds, we can expect increased cases for the next couple weeks (the Easter blip) and then a fall into summer. The trends suggest very low death rates by summer. We will see. Below 400/day is below a typical winter flu level. Below 200/day and you can probably suspend restrictions. Lots of “if”s in that, though.

 

[GoofGoof]

For anyone with any doubts on vaccine progress here‘s the latest snapshot from the Bloomberg tracker:

Key takeaway here is even if the pace of vaccination doesn‘t increase but just stays exactly as is now we will have vaccinated 75% of Americans by the end of June (3 months). Doing a little math 75% of Americans is roughly 250M people or 100% of all adults or about 90% of the 12+ population likely to be eligible by June. We all know that it’s impossible to get 100% of adults and highly unlikely we get 90% of 12+ so we have the capacity to be “done” with vaccinations before the end of June, with everyone who wants one at least started in May. This lines up with prior projections but for the first time we don’t have to count on a ramp up of deliveries or vaccinations in that projection. Now all we are dependent on is vaccine acceptance. We have a real shot at a very nice Summer

 

[havoc315]

To be fair, in any discussion of a return to normal for Disney there are both safety or public health limitations and also financial limitations. So when we talk about a “return to normal” for Disney parks I think it’s important to separate the 2 to some respect. I think most people are referring to the removal or relaxing of Covid safety restrictions as a return to normal. Specifically park capacity limits, mask mandates, temp checks, distancing in lines and at restaurants and bans on large group gatherings for shows. If all of those things were either removed or relaxed to a large extent the parks would feel a lot more like normal. Certain things that are missing today like night shows, meet and greets, FP lines and large stadium style shows could all return if they are deemed safe.

Just because things can return does not mean they all will return and/or will return to the same extent as pre-Covid times. That’s where the economic impact comes in. For example, not every resort needs to be fully open before I’d call it a return to normal. Not every show or every aspect of entertainment needs to be fully back either. Demand will come back over time but it won’t be necessarily be fully restored this Summer or even this year. There could be permanent changes due to this pandemic and there could be temporary ones that last for months still and go well beyond the need from a safety prospective.

I guess what I’m saying is when talking about a “return to normal” at WDW I think most people are more referring to covid restrictions being lifted or relaxed not necessarily a full return to everything that existed pre-Covid.

While I generally agree with all that.... I think it understates the degree to which Disney may simply not be in a rush to go back to the old normal.
For example, if this summer has reduced social distancing, masks purely optional (or optional outdoors), and park capacity increased to 50% (which is almost a normal summer crowd)... but still no fireworks, no Fantasmic, no Indy stunt show and no Beauty and the Beast, no fastpasses --- Is that "normal?" in the eyes of a Disney guest. Whether for financial reasons, health reasons or other reasons, Disney is clearly in no rush to bring back a lot of their former operations.
For example, there is no reason they can't bring back Beauty and the Beast right now -- an outdoor stage show that was generally only half-full anyway? Vaccinate the cast members, distance the audience a little bit... it could come back by Memorial Day... but there is clearly no plan to bring it back so soon. (or ever).

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

For example, there is no reason they can't bring back Beauty and the Beast right now -- an outdoor stage show that was generally only half-full anyway? Vaccinate the cast members, distance the audience a little bit... it could come back by Memorial Day... but there is cle

They could have citizens of Hollywood performing and live musicians performing in the beauty and the beast, Indiana Jones, and little mermaid theaters.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Just to try and visualize what I was trying to say, I compared NYC, NY State, New Jersey and MI where cases are raging to two states where while rising are doing so at a much lower pace (WI, FL) once you adjust for population and look at cumulative totals you can see why some states are having more of a flair. Most states have comparable vaccinations, but places that have been “burned through” have a higher amount of natural immunity. When it comes to the British varient, while it can infect a person who has had “normal Covid” it still infects them at a much lower rate then a naive person. Michigan is unfortunately just regressing to norm.

View attachment 545441
(courtesy of the CDC data tracker site)

Thanks! That encapsulates what I was saying: That the virus burns through populations because... it can.

Got several hundred thousand people in your state that you had protected with good protocols? Well, let's see what happens when a bunch of them drop their guard.

Got several hundred thousand acres of dry brushwood that you kept from catching fire? Well, let's see what happens when a bunch of people stop tending their campfires...

 

[GoofGoof]

While I generally agree with all that.... I think it understates the degree to which Disney may simply not be in a rush to go back to the old normal.
For example, if this summer has reduced social distancing, masks purely optional (or optional outdoors), and park capacity increased to 50% (which is almost a normal summer crowd)... but still no fireworks, no Fantasmic, no Indy stunt show and no Beauty and the Beast, no fastpasses --- Is that "normal?" in the eyes of a Disney guest. Whether for financial reasons, health reasons or other reasons, Disney is clearly in no rush to bring back a lot of their former operations.
For example, there is no reason they can't bring back Beauty and the Beast right now -- an outdoor stage show that was generally only half-full anyway? Vaccinate the cast members, distance the audience a little bit... it could come back by Memorial Day... but there is clearly no plan to bring it back so soon. (or ever).

We don’t know what the plan is for that show or any entertainment. You assume the show isn’t coming back this Summer or ever but we don’t know that. The CMs in the show just became eligible for vaccines this week in FL and it wouldn’t be possible to bring them back until they were vaccinated at a minimum. It’s April 5 so it’s way too early to write off the whole Summer yet. In theory if the CMs for that show got called back on May 1 they could likely start running shows by June 1 or an early June call back for shows starting Juiy 1. The point is they don’t need 3+ months of lead time to bring back a show.

As far as fast pass goes, there is no reason it can’t or won’t come back once distancing in lines is relaxed. The main reason it’s gone is they can’t have the standby and fast pass lanes right next to each other as they are setup in most attractions. If distancing is gone there’s no reason why that is an issue. Park capacity is only limited due to distancing as well. If that’s relaxed there is no need for park capacity limits either. We are also seeing hours increased recently and I think that will continue. Hours are getting closer to ”normal” already and should only increase over the Summer. Increased hours combined with park hopping feel more like normal.

If you feel that it’s not a “return to normal” unless everything is back as it was before Covid that’s fine, there’s no formal definition. I was just pointing out that IMHO the benchmark for a return to a version of normal is primarily driven by a relaxing of Covid safety protocols and a return of things directly restricted by Covid safety. I don’t think every show, every aspect of entertainment and every resort has to be fully back before it feels more like “normal”. It may take into 2022 before full crowds and full demand is back, especially with International visitors taking longer to return.

 

[Jrb1979]

They could have citizens of Hollywood performing and live musicians performing in the beauty and the beast, Indiana Jones, and little mermaid theaters.

They could have but choose not to. A lot of these cuts have nothing to do with Covid but we're always planned

 

[Patcheslee]

For anyone with any doubts on vaccine progress here‘s the latest snapshot from the Bloomberg tracker:
View attachment 545461
Key takeaway here is even if the pace of vaccination doesn‘t increase but just stays exactly as is now we will have vaccinated 75% of Americans by the end of June (3 months). Doing a little math 75% of Americans is roughly 250M people or 100% of all adults or about 90% of the 12+ population likely to be eligible by June. We all know that it’s impossible to get 100% of adults and highly unlikely we get 90% of 12+ so we have the capacity to be “done” with vaccinations before the end of June, with everyone who wants one at least started in May. This lines up with prior projections but for the first time we don’t have to count on a ramp up of deliveries or vaccinations in that projection. Now all we are dependent on is vaccine acceptance. We have a real shot at a very nice Summer

I noticed Bloomberg has the option to project path to immunity by individual state. Indiana is sadly tracking at 5 months to 75%. Florida is at 4 months, California 3 month, New York 2 months.
Alabama & Georgia are the worst on track at 6 months.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 36 new reported deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[Figgy1]

They could have but choose not to. A lot of these cuts have nothing to do with Covid but we're always planned

The Bobs have been looking to cut expenses since business school Guest satisfaction be darned

 

[seabreezept813]

Same for me. Through this I have lost a lot of respect for a lot of people who I called friends.

One my siblings legit was telling people how she was lying about what she did so she could still visit family. My father has cancer and I was high risk pregnant. Such a having your cake and eating it too mentality. It cost her meeting her niece, while my brothers got to see her because they took getting vaccinated seriously. It’s so crazy how people can be so selfish..

 

[MaximumEd]

I noticed Bloomberg has the option to project path to immunity by individual state. Indiana is sadly tracking at 5 months to 75%. Florida is at 4 months, California 3 month, New York 2 months.
Alabama & Georgia are the worst on track at 6 months.

Not surprised on the slowest states. I’m an Alabamian. I love my state. We are super friendly, have great food, beautiful beaches in the south, mountains in the north, incredible biodiversity and river systems.....truly an outdoorsmans paradise, but we’re always first (or last depending on how you score it) on all the wrong things. Got my first Moderna shot this morning. Hope more of my fellow Bama folks follow suit.

 

[havoc315]

We don’t know what the plan is for that show or any entertainment. You assume the show isn’t coming back this Summer or ever

Not making any assumptions. Just going based on what's known:

January -- they announced that FOTLK is returning this summer in modified format.
Since then... now April -- nothing else announced to come back. No staff being brought back, no rehearsals beginning.

By this time, we can confidently say the other entertainment is not coming back by early summer.

We also know WDW has been moving very slowly so far. They even announced the Rat is opening October 1st. Might they move it up? Sure, it's possible, but we can only go with the evidence thus far.

Might more come back at some point over the summer? Sure, maybe. But all the evidence thus far points to:
Wilderness Lodge and Beach Club to open for summer, Poly to open for late summer. FOTLK to return sometime this summer in modified format.

There is absolutely no evidence that other closed entertainment will be returning by the start of the summer season.

but we don’t know that. The CMs in the show just became eligible for vaccines this week in FL and it wouldn’t be possible to bring them back until they were vaccinated at a minimum. It’s April 5 so it’s way too early to write off the whole Summer yet. In theory if the CMs for that show got called back on May 1 they could likely start running shows by June 1 or an early June call back for shows starting Juiy 1.

Not sure where you're getting a 4 week lead time from. The "knowledgeable" people on this board have suggested an 8-12 week lead time, at a minimum, to re-launch significant entertainment. (the cast members aren't sitting at home waiting to re-start their shows, many have left the area, taken jobs elsewhere, retired, etc..... so you need several weeks of auditions and hiring, followed by several weeks of rehearsals... 2-3 month lead time to bring back big entertainment pieces)

The point is they don’t need 3+ months of lead time to bring back a show.

I'm not an expert in that area. The people on the board who claim to be the experts suggest that 2-3 months are required.

As far as fast pass goes, there is no reason it can’t or won’t come back once distancing in lines is relaxed.

There is a huge reason -- Disney may be entirely reassessing the fastpass system. As I said, some of the changes may have nothing to do with Covid. If Disney is indeed reassessing the entire FP system, it may not come back in any form for quite a while. I'm not assuming that to be the case -- It's merely a possibility. Much like we now know that EMH isn't coming back, luggage handling Magic Express isn't coming back. Rivers of Light isn't coming back. We already know lots of the old stuff is not coming back. There may be additional things that also don't come back.

The main reason it’s gone is they can’t have the standby and fast pass lanes right next to each other as they are setup in most attractions.

That's the reason they implied. Yet -- the FP lane is still being used for rider swap and other uses. And Universal is using their Express lane. There is a simpler reason they haven't brought back FP -- insufficient capacity.

If distancing is gone there’s no reason why that is an issue. Park capacity is only limited due to distancing as well. If that’s relaxed there is no need for park capacity limits either. We are also seeing hours increased recently and I think that will continue. Hours are getting closer to ”normal” already and should only increase over the Summer. Increased hours combined with park hopping feel more like normal.

Agreed. Absolutely, some things will feel more and more normal. But there are other things that might not return to "normal" for a long time, or possibly never.

If you feel that it’s not a “return to normal” unless everything is back as it was before Covid that’s fine, there’s no formal definition. I was just pointing out that IMHO the benchmark for a return to a version of normal is primarily driven by a relaxing of Covid safety protocols and a return of things directly restricted by Covid safety. I don’t think every show, every aspect of entertainment and every resort has to be fully back before it feels more like “normal”.

Looking around at lots of people, I'd say there is no singular definition of normal. It's very subjective, with a different line. Some would say it already is normal -- most of the rides are operating, most restaurants are open. Others may have a specific subjective requirement -- not normal until there are fireworks. Not normal until there are character meets.

So I'm careful when talking about "normal" because that is going to differ to different people. As Covid becomes less concerning, unquestionably we will see changes -- we will see increasing capacity, relaxed social distancing, maybe relaxed masking at some point.

But how long to get to "normal" -- I don't know that it will ever feel like the old normal again. I just don't know one way or the other.

 

[wdwmagic]

Not making any assumptions. Just going based on what's known:

January -- they announced that FOTLK is returning this summer in modified format.
Since then... now April -- nothing else announced to come back. No staff being brought back, no rehearsals beginning.

By this time, we can confidently say the other entertainment is not coming back by early summer.

This isn't accurate.

 

[havoc315]

This isn't accurate.

Summer season kicks off May 31st... (WDW's calendar)
I'm fairly confident we won't be seeing BATB, Indy, Fantasmic, etc, coming back by then.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I thought the ultimate goal was for ALL people, regardless of age, to receive the vaccination? From the conversations thus far global vaccination for ALL is the eventual objective. I do not see it as a major issue that a young person slipped through a wait your turn crack. It is not news anymore that people have been jumping the line. I am sure the people administering the vaccinations are doing their best to enforce the "wait your turn" rules.

The amounts of vaccine being given to children I the Pfizer and moderna trials for the youngest age group are significantly less than what’s bei by given to adults. Dosage matters.

 

[plawren2]

I think as a society many of the aspects of living and work will return to mostly norm, but jobs were lost, business closed and how work can be conducted has changed and none of those are returning to way it was. BUT people will seek a return to normal in their lives and work and as a result much of that will return. I have no idea (no one really does) what the WDW will look like or when, but likely many aspects will return, yet by returning WDW may also decide to rethink its operation (FP?) in some ways. In terms of timing, there may be this push and expectation for "norm" now or soon, when more likely we are talking about 2-3 months and public gatherings will be slow to return - as they are now starting to - but they will eventually (live theater, concerts, movie theaters, amusement parks, sporting events) to 100% capacity, this summer and by fall.

 

[plawren2]

The amounts of vaccine being given to children I the Pfizer and moderna trials for the youngest age group are significantly less than what’s bei by given to adults. Dosage matters.

it is the ultimate goal to provide opportunity for all to be vaccinated, but under 16 was always going to be last group (fall 2021 or later) and even without that age group it is possible to get to herd immunity in the adult population-still a few months away for that level to be achieved. Keep in mind getting to herd immunity is not the current and most immediate need in terms of getting as may people as vaccinated as fast as possible-its to stop the spread, drive down case numbers especially most serious cases, hospitializations and deaths.