Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ToTBellHop]

I think the WHO-defined pandemic will last for at least another year, because there are plenty of people outside of the G20 (and even inside!) with no accelerated timeline to be vaccinated. I think the dwindling amount of pandemic safety measures within America, for Americans will wind down between July and September.

I think you are more likely than not to be correct. Mandates come from states. We have states that ignore Covid and have already removed mandates (and surveys suggest lower vaccine interest in those states) while more restrictive states still have mandates (and surveys suggest higher vaccine interest in those states).

The Floridas will keep on Floridaing (with some level of Covid spread slowly increasing immunity) while the Californias vaccinate 85% of their population and can relax restrictions thanks to that protection.

Now, will restrictions return with later surges? No one knows. But summer should be nice.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think you are more likely than not to be correct. Mandates come from states. We have states that ignore Covid and have already removed mandates (and surveys suggest lower vaccine interest in those states) while more restrictive states still have mandates (and surveys suggest higher vaccine interest in those states).

The Floridas will keep on Floridaing (with some level of Covid spread slowly increasing immunity) while the Californias vaccinate 85% of their population and can relax restrictions thanks to that protection.

Now, will restrictions return with later surges? No one knows. But summer should be nice.

God willing. I hope Summer is nice. I’m all in on vaccinations and I do think that will be the case but if we do hit substantial vaccine resistance than it means a potentially less than nice Summer and on to plan B which involves vaccine passports and general unpleasantness. Let’s just hope everyone gets on board and get their shots.

 

[HarperRose]

It's happening here in Ontario. All restaurants are back to takeout only and gyms and hair salons are closed again. All cause hospitalizations are up again as well as cases.

On another note the Vancouver Canucks are currently going through a Covid outbreak. Over 20 players and coaches have it as well as their families. From the symptoms that many of the players have I for sure have no interest in catching it. The symptomsinclude vomiting, cramping and dehydration. I'm amazed at how many are ok with catching it cause they will survive it.

Canucks' positive COVID cases increases to over 20 - TSN.ca

The number of positive COVID-19 cases within the Vancouver Canucks continued to increase on Sunday with TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger reporting more than 20 players and coaches in total have tested positive.

www.tsn.ca

And these are world-class athletes, so there goes the bogus theory of "if you're healthy, you'll be fine." Many of them are reported to be severely ill.

 

[fgmnt]

I think you are more likely than not to be correct. Mandates come from states. We have states that ignore Covid and have already removed mandates (and surveys suggest lower vaccine interest in those states) while more restrictive states still have mandates (and surveys suggest higher vaccine interest in those states).

The Floridas will keep on Floridaing (with some level of Covid spread slowly increasing immunity) while the Californias vaccinate 85% of their population and can relax restrictions thanks to that protection.

Now, will restrictions return with later surges? No one knows. But summer should be nice.

I don't see statewide government oriented mask mandates lasting anywhere beyond the late summer, if you're implying they could last even longer in some areas. This country already gave up in a lot of ways.

If you think they could go away earlier, I would love to see it, but I don't know.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not trying to be overly optimistic, but even our current increase in cases is not yet certain to be a new wave. The curve of the 7 day average has flattened out, but the very end of the curve has turned back down again. Too soon to say it will continue downward, but the point is it’s not a pronounced upward swing like most of Europe has seen. More like it’s confused and not sure which way to go. My hope is that’s a direct result of the vaccines and as the percentages vaccinated keeps going up and especially the younger demographic which is responsible for more of the spread that will make things even better.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Not trying to be overly optimistic, but even our current increase in cases is not yet certain to be a new wave. The curve of the 7 day average has flattened out, but the very end of the curve has turned back down again. Too soon to say it will continue downward, but the point is it’s not a pronounced upward swing like most of Europe has seen. More like it’s confused and not sure which way to go. My hope is that’s a direct result of the vaccines and as the percentages vaccinated keeps going up and especially the younger demographic which is responsible for more of the spread that will make things even better.
View attachment 545421

Yes. And even with that plateau or small bump, it is significant that fatalities keep falling. The plateau began 5-6 weeks ago, so we can presume deaths are falling in spite of that.

Hospitalizations have leveled off, but reportedly with more individuals under age 40, who are less likely to die. It is still a good idea for those individuals to get vaccinated, however. Even if you don’t die, you don’t know about long-term impacts from your hospitalization.

 

[ABQ]

Not trying to be overly optimistic, but even our current increase in cases is not yet certain to be a new wave. The curve of the 7 day average has flattened out, but the very end of the curve has turned back down again. Too soon to say it will continue downward, but the point is it’s not a pronounced upward swing like most of Europe has seen. More like it’s confused and not sure which way to go. My hope is that’s a direct result of the vaccines and as the percentages vaccinated keeps going up and especially the younger demographic which is responsible for more of the spread that will make things even better.
View attachment 545421

Reporting for the next couple of days will be a little suspect due to the holiday. I won't be surprised to see a couple low days then a jump due to lab delays or just few people being tested till later in the week.

 

[havoc315]

"Return to normalcy" is really multi-factorial... and return to normal at Disney includes other layers.

1. What the public health experts say: This is providing the general frame work for government policy, for large companies, etc. It is likely to progress but move slowly. I doubt that they will be saying by July 1st, "ok, everyone go back to normal." But they will gradually update guidance. Many States won't follow it, just as they already don't follow it. My "best guess" -- By summer, "masks are entirely discretionary for vaccinated individuals in small and medium group settings, but masks and social distancing should be continued in large groups that include a significant proportion of unvaccinated individuals" -- That's purely an educated guess. But I'm guessing the CDC continues to recommend masking and social distancing in large gatherings like sports stadiums and theme parks, through the summer.
2. Public attitudes in compliance with public health recommendations: With 50-60% of Americans, 70%+ of American adults, potentially vaccinated by summer... you may simply get to a point where a threshold of people won't go along with many measures. Especially if the case/death numbers are very low. So public health experts may still insist that masks are necessary in large gatherings, but it may become unenforceable if the public doesn't go along.
3. Public attitudes in the opposite direction: There will be members of the public who are reluctant to "go back to normal" until they are even more confident risks are gone. There will be people who still avoid gatherings, mask up.. until vaccines are available to kids... until lots of time passes and we really see Covid in the rear view mirror. Depending the number of people that fall into this category... Disney may need to balance #2 public and #3 public. So far, they have been erring more on the side of #3 -- "abundance of caution" to show the public they are safe.
4. "New Normal" -- tele-commuting is now expanded forever. There is a significant portion of the office-working population that will never go back to the physical office to the degree they did pre-Covid. Certain health precautions may become part of the new normal. Seeing how masking and social distancing has greatly reduced the flu season, some public health experts are already saying that masks should be the norm during flu season. Some degree of social distancing may become more common in the long term.
And getting back to Disney -- Not necessarily having anything to do with Covid -- But the are taking this period to reassess many of their operations. We know EMH is never coming back in its old form. Rumors that the old FP+ system may never return. etc.
5 "Staffing issues" making return difficult. WDW won't have the College Program back for a while. "Enhanced unemployment" through September has made it more difficult to find low wage workers. Even if WDW wants to increase capacity for more normalcy, they may actually run into staffing issues preventing it.

In other words.... "When will WDW return to normal" -- May never return fully to the old normal. And a lot of factors go into the pace at which they will get to the new long-term normal.

 

[Touchdown]

Just to try and visualize what I was trying to say, I compared NYC, NY State, New Jersey and MI where cases are raging to two states where while rising are doing so at a much lower pace (WI, FL) once you adjust for population and look at cumulative totals you can see why some states are having more of a flair. Most states have comparable vaccinations, but places that have been “burned through” have a higher amount of natural immunity. When it comes to the British varient, while it can infect a person who has had “normal Covid” it still infects them at a much lower rate then a naive person. Michigan is unfortunately just regressing to norm.

(courtesy of the CDC data tracker site)

 

[GoofGoof]

Reporting for the next couple of days will be a little suspect due to the holiday. I won't be surprised to see a couple low days then a jump due to lab delays or just few people being tested till later in the week.

Yes, for sure. I also expect the vaccination number to be way down when it’s reported today. I assume many vaccine sites were closed on Easter Sunday. Covid positives may dip for the weekend and jump in the next few days as people get tested and/or labs that were closed Sunday reopen and process tests. On that graph I posted the April 4 positives were under 37K which we haven’t seen in the US since early October but I agree it’s probably a lack of testing vs a true drop off.

 

[Patcheslee]

Hospitalizations have leveled off, but reportedly with more individuals under age 40, who are less likely to die. It is still a good idea for those individuals to get vaccinated, however. Even if you don’t die, you don’t know about long-term impacts from your hospitalization.

This may seem horrible, but to think about it many under 40 may be influenced to get the vaccine if they knew how expensive a hospital stay could be. Just for myself alone my out of pocket maximum with insurance is 12k/year. That's easily 2 years of vacations for us. A semester of college tuition, a decent used car, etc. I wasn't exactly worried about death or getting sick until I had a kid.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Yes. And even with that plateau or small bump, it is significant that fatalities keep falling. The plateau began 5-6 weeks ago, so we can presume deaths are falling in spite of that. View attachment 545422
Hospitalizations have leveled off, but reportedly with more individuals under age 40, who are less likely to die. It is still a good idea for those individuals to get vaccinated, however. Even if you don’t die, you don’t know about long-term impacts from your hospitalization.

The rates should also fall due to the under 40 that have gotten COVID, they should be, at least in the short term, immune from getting it again. Will know in the future how long the immunity lasts, but probably not until next year.

 

[GoofGoof]

"Return to normalcy" is really multi-factorial... and return to normal at Disney includes other layers.

1. What the public health experts say: This is providing the general frame work for government policy, for large companies, etc. It is likely to progress but move slowly. I doubt that they will be saying by July 1st, "ok, everyone go back to normal." But they will gradually update guidance. Many States won't follow it, just as they already don't follow it. My "best guess" -- By summer, "masks are entirely discretionary for vaccinated individuals in small and medium group settings, but masks and social distancing should be continued in large groups that include a significant proportion of unvaccinated individuals" -- That's purely an educated guess. But I'm guessing the CDC continues to recommend masking and social distancing in large gatherings like sports stadiums and theme parks, through the summer.
2. Public attitudes in compliance with public health recommendations: With 50-60% of Americans, 70%+ of American adults, potentially vaccinated by summer... you may simply get to a point where a threshold of people won't go along with many measures. Especially if the case/death numbers are very low. So public health experts may still insist that masks are necessary in large gatherings, but it may become unenforceable if the public doesn't go along.
3. Public attitudes in the opposite direction: There will be members of the public who are reluctant to "go back to normal" until they are even more confident risks are gone. There will be people who still avoid gatherings, mask up.. until vaccines are available to kids... until lots of time passes and we really see Covid in the rear view mirror. Depending the number of people that fall into this category... Disney may need to balance #2 public and #3 public. So far, they have been erring more on the side of #3 -- "abundance of caution" to show the public they are safe.
4. "New Normal" -- tele-commuting is now expanded forever. There is a significant portion of the office-working population that will never go back to the physical office to the degree they did pre-Covid. Certain health precautions may become part of the new normal. Seeing how masking and social distancing has greatly reduced the flu season, some public health experts are already saying that masks should be the norm during flu season. Some degree of social distancing may become more common in the long term.
And getting back to Disney -- Not necessarily having anything to do with Covid -- But the are taking this period to reassess many of their operations. We know EMH is never coming back in its old form. Rumors that the old FP+ system may never return. etc.
5 "Staffing issues" making return difficult. WDW won't have the College Program back for a while. "Enhanced unemployment" through September has made it more difficult to find low wage workers. Even if WDW wants to increase capacity for more normalcy, they may actually run into staffing issues preventing it.

In other words.... "When will WDW return to normal" -- May never return fully to the old normal. And a lot of factors go into the pace at which they will get to the new long-term normal.

To be fair, in any discussion of a return to normal for Disney there are both safety or public health limitations and also financial limitations. So when we talk about a “return to normal” for Disney parks I think it’s important to separate the 2 to some respect. I think most people are referring to the removal or relaxing of Covid safety restrictions as a return to normal. Specifically park capacity limits, mask mandates, temp checks, distancing in lines and at restaurants and bans on large group gatherings for shows. If all of those things were either removed or relaxed to a large extent the parks would feel a lot more like normal. Certain things that are missing today like night shows, meet and greets, FP lines and large stadium style shows could all return if they are deemed safe.

Just because things can return does not mean they all will return and/or will return to the same extent as pre-Covid times. That’s where the economic impact comes in. For example, not every resort needs to be fully open before I’d call it a return to normal. Not every show or every aspect of entertainment needs to be fully back either. Demand will come back over time but it won’t be necessarily be fully restored this Summer or even this year. There could be permanent changes due to this pandemic and there could be temporary ones that last for months still and go well beyond the need from a safety prospective.

I guess what I’m saying is when talking about a “return to normal” at WDW I think most people are more referring to covid restrictions being lifted or relaxed not necessarily a full return to everything that existed pre-Covid.

 

[cm1988]

There's not much Disney can really do to prepare.
Many more people get the flu each year and go into the parks infected whether they know it or not and in turn infect others and the flu is pretty deadly.
Also the key population of who has passed away from the virus is older men who already had pre existing conditions particularly respiratory conditions usually from smoking.
Did you avoid Disney during SARS or H1N1 or Zika or Ebola....? If so then avoid Disney now. If not then don't avoid Disney.
Use common sense and wash your hands etc.

Please keep in mind that SARS, H1N1, Zika, and Ebola did not kill 550,000 Americans last year. If a person is young, they have much better odds and maybe they choose to roll the dice. Unfortunately when they do that they can bring their viral “winnings” back to society.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Please keep in mind that SARS, H1N1, Zika, and Ebola did not kill 550,000 Americans last year. If a person is young, they have much better odds and maybe they choose to roll the dice. Unfortunately when they do that they can bring their viral “winnings” back to society.

Please keep in mind the date when a post was made.

 

[GoofGoof]

This may seem horrible, but to think about it many under 40 may be influenced to get the vaccine if they knew how expensive a hospital stay could be. Just for myself alone my out of pocket maximum with insurance is 12k/year. That's easily 2 years of vacations for us. A semester of college tuition, a decent used car, etc. I wasn't exactly worried about death or getting sick until I had a kid.

This is a really good point. Not only hospital bills but lost wages as well. If you are lucky enough to have generous sick leave or a bank of unused vacation time it may not be an issue but for a lot of hourly workers they aren’t getting paid if they aren’t working. So you lose several weeks of pay and get slapped with tens of thousands in hospital bills. Ugly result financially.

Unfortunately the prevailing narrative that’s pushed heavily on social media and other places is young people are at little actual risk with Covid. While that’s true for the risk of death, I posted a little while back an article that said 1/3 of hospitalizations in parts of FL are now from people under 40. That needs to be publicized a whole lot more as vaccines are opening up to that age group. You most likely won’t die but you could get really sick, miss work and get slapped with a huge hospital bill...or you can go get a free shot and avoid all of that.

 

[seascape]

Just to try and visualize what I was trying to say, I compared NYC, NY State, New Jersey and MI where cases are raging to two states where while rising are doing so at a much lower pace (WI, FL) once you adjust for population and look at cumulative totals you can see why some states are having more of a flair. Most states have comparable vaccinations, but places that have been “burned through” have a higher amount of natural immunity. When it comes to the British varient, while it can infect a person who has had “normal Covid” it still infects them at a much lower rate then a naive person. Michigan is unfortunately just regressing to norm.

View attachment 545441
(courtesy of the CDC data tracker site)

I love graphs but yours makes Michigan look much better than it is. Michigan is the worst state bith for growth of new cases and cases oer 100,000. You misssed the one key point, population. The truth is Florida is not doing great but still is doing better than the Northeast or Michigan but needs to do better. However, if you remove those bad states, the country is doing well and I still expect a major drop in cases before the end of April, with a national average in the middle single digits. I know that sounds optimistic but it's realistic based on the supply of vaccines and the rates being vaccinated. Spring break, Passover and Easter are over and so cases should b
drop significantly just like they did after New Year's.

 

[DCBaker]

UCF begins vaccination pods this week -

 

[GoofGoof]

I love graphs but yours makes Michigan look much better than it is. Michigan is the worst state bith for growth of new cases and cases oer 100,000. You misssed the one key point, population. The truth is Florida is not doing great but still is doing better than the Northeast or Michigan but needs to do better. However, if you remove those bad states, the country is doing well and I still expect a major drop in cases before the end of April, with a national average in the middle single digits. I know that sounds optimistic but it's realistic based on the supply of vaccines and the rates being vaccinated. Spring break, Passover and Easter are over and so cases should b
drop significantly just like they did after New Year's.

His graph is cases per 100,000 so it adjusts for population size. It’s cumulative cases not current cases. I think the point is that Michigan looks really bad with current cases but that’s just a catch up to some of the hardest hit areas overall. The current surge in MI is why their curve is almost straight up.

 

[Touchdown]

I love graphs but yours makes Michigan look much better than it is. Michigan is the worst state bith for growth of new cases and cases oer 100,000. You misssed the one key point, population. The truth is Florida is not doing great but still is doing better than the Northeast or Michigan but needs to do better. However, if you remove those bad states, the country is doing well and I still expect a major drop in cases before the end of April, with a national average in the middle single digits. I know that sounds optimistic but it's realistic based on the supply of vaccines and the rates being vaccinated. Spring break, Passover and Easter are over and so cases should b
drop significantly just like they did after New Year's.

That graph adjusts for population (cases per 100k) this again shows your flaw of focusing on daily numbers, you need to look at trends. Michigan up until a month ago had done very well with Covid cases compared to the national norm, unfortunately, the bells now toll for Michigan. That graph shows why what’s happening in Michigan now isn’t happening everywhere, it’s because it already happened. And why for now I still remain optimistic. So long as we keep chugging with vaccinations this should pass soon.