Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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danlb_2000

danlb_2000

Premium Member
GoofGoof said:
The second dose is really tough. If a vaccine location gets 10,000 doses in and vaccinates 10,000 people over a few days they have to be sure to have 10,000 more doses in 3 weeks, but there are millions more people looking for their first shot. So 3 weeks go by and they are expecting a delivery of 20,000 doses so have 10,000 new people lined up and also the 2nd dose for the original 10,000 people. If for some reason they only get 15,000 doses then they have to use the first 10,000 on the people getting dose 2 and cancel on 5,000 new people. Now what happens to those new people since others have lined up appointments as well. It almost seems like they have flexible scheduling for your first dose dose then firm scheduling for the second. It’s doable but then if for some reason a bunch of people don’t show for dose 2 you need to find replacement patients quickly before the vaccines spoil.
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This also create a scenario that once a specific location starts distributing a specific vaccine, it's hard for them to change to another one.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
We agree more than we disagree. The best thing today is that in a week we will start vaccinations. I know it will take many months before everyone is vaccinated but the spread will start to go down as more people are vaccinated. If we can do 40 million in December and another 40 million in January it will be close to 30% of the public. If we have 15% who had had Covid19, that means 45% of the population is safe and can't spread it. I know the CDC says we need to get to 70% to crush Covid19 but 45% will drastically cut the spread and in February and March we should easily get to 70%, especially if a 3rd and or 4th vaccine is approved.

Now, I know distribution is going to be difficult but speaking with my pharmacist in Staten Island and the one in New Jersey, I am sure they are ready.
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35-40 million doses. First dose and then for 3 weeks later second dose.(3wks Pfizer. 4 wks Moderna)Pfizer I believe will not be able to deliver all of the doses they expected to one the first month. 35-40 million originsl quote for USA may include Moderna. Divide by half for number of people vaccinated, unless you assume Jsnuary priduction is exclusively used for second dose.

Therefore 15-20 million people will likely be through their second dose by end of January
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Disney Experience said:
35-40 million doses. First dose and then for 3 weeks later second dose.(3wks Pfizer. 4 wks Moderna)Pfizer I believe will not be able to deliver all of the doses they expected to one the first month. 35-40 million originsl quote for USA may include Moderna. Divide by half for number of people vaccinated, unless you assume Jsnuary priduction is exclusively used for second dose.

Therefore 15-20 million people will likely be through their second dose by end of January
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The last I read they expect to have 40 million doses by the end of 2020 so enough to vaccinate all 21M healthcare workers and 3M residents of LT care facilities with their first dose and then what’s left combined with the first 8 million doses received in Jan would be enough to give them their second as well. By the end of Jan all healthcare workers and nursing home residents that want a vaccine should be done. From Moderna and Pfizer alone they are expecting to be able to vaccinate an additional 25 - 30 million people a month starting in January 2021 and ramping up. If any or all of the other 3 vaccine candidates gets approval in Q1 that will expedite the process even further.

There are currently 330M people in the US but 25% are kids under 18 so 247M adults. Recent polling showed 60% of adults would take the vaccine when available so that gets us to just under 150M adults in the US. I think that’s where they come up with the statement that all adults who want the vaccine will have it by April. If you start adding in more adults and then kids (who can’t go yet since not part of the trials - Pfizer has 12-17 now but that trial isn’t done) it’s going to take a few more months to get to a level needed for herd immunity. Again, if you add one or 2 additional vaccine candidates into the mix it becomes possible to have all who want it done by as early as Memorial Day. I think that’s the likely best case scenario.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
The last I read they expect to have 40 million doses by the end of 2020 so enough to vaccinate all 21M healthcare workers and 3M residents of LT care facilities with their first dose and then what’s left combined with the first 8 million doses received in Jan would be enough to give them their second as well. By the end of Jan all healthcare workers and nursing home residents that want a vaccine should be done. From Moderna and Pfizer alone they are expecting to be able to vaccinate an additional 25 - 30 million people a month starting in January 2021 and ramping up. If any or all of the other 3 vaccine candidates gets approval in Q1 that will expedite the process even further.

There are currently 330M people in the US but 25% are kids under 18 so 247M adults. Recent polling showed 60% of adults would take the vaccine when available so that gets us to just under 150M adults in the US. I think that’s where they come up with the statement that all adults who want the vaccine will have it by April. If you start adding in more adults and then kids (who can’t go yet since not part of the trials - Pfizer has 12-17 now but that trial isn’t done) it’s going to take a few more months to get to a level needed for herd immunity. Again, if you add one or 2 additional vaccine candidates into the mix it becomes possible to have all who want it done by as early as Memorial Day. I think that’s the likely best case scenario.
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I think the story of less than expected output is described in this article. Looks like the number reduction was from a higher earlier number (100 million vs 50 million doses)

www.fiercepharma.com

Pfizer: No, we're not suddenly cutting our COVID-19 vaccine targets for 2020

With the world's first regulatory approval for a COVID-19 vaccine under its belt, Pfizer is gearing up for the global launch of its mRNA-based vaccine—and with the world watching and other competit | With the first regulatory approval for a COVID-19 vaccine under its belt, Pfizer is gearing up...
www.fiercepharma.com www.fiercepharma.com
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
hopemax said:
President-elect Biden is set to select Rochelle Walensky to be the next head of the CDC. She is currently the Chief of Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General.
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I don’t know much about her personally. She seems well received by the medical community. I did find this very encouraging:
In the Biden administration, the CDC will take on a much larger and public role, with plans to revive regular media briefings and give a central role to career officials who have been pushed aside by President Donald Trump. Biden and his advisers have emphasized that they want to prioritize scientists over politics in responding to the pandemic.
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This is a welcome development IMHO.
www.yahoo.com

To rebuild CDC, Biden picks Rochelle Walensky

The chief of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital will take a top role in helping the new administration curtail the coronavirus pandemic.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
This is the first Christmas season in 8 years that we missed going to WDW. So tonight we watched the Christmas Processional repeat with the best narrator, Neal Patrick Harris. My wife and I love him and his shows. We are so happy that he and his entire family recovered from Covid19 earlier this year. We also hope he managed to keep his family tradition of visiting WDW during this wonderful time of year. In any case we thank him for all the pleasure he has given us over the years with his acting career but especially as a narrator at the Processional.
 
Kevin_W

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
This is the first Christmas season in 8 years that we missed going to WDW. So tonight we watched the Christmas Processional repeat with the best narrator, Neal Patrick Harris. My wife and I love him and his shows. We are so happy that he and his entire family recovered from Covid19 earlier this year. We also hope he managed to keep his family tradition of visiting WDW during this wonderful time of year. In any case we thank him for all the pleasure he has given us over the years with his acting career but especially as a narrator at the Processional.
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We went to WDW on Christmas itself for the first time ever last year. Our Christmas Eve service was the Candlelight Processional narrated by Michael W. Smith. It was a neat experience. I've gone 8+ months with church services via Youtube, and there are some benefits along with the negatives. But I'm really going to miss having an in-person Christmas Eve service.
 
TrainsOfDisney

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
seabreezept813 said:
There’s actually a pretty clear point. People wear masks in public to prevent spread of covid. Wearing a mask in a bank could be a potential issue for criminal activity. Pulling your mask down for a few seconds in front of a camera and then replacing it addresses both safety concerns.
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What is the security risk of wearing a mask that covers your face and nose inside a bank?

edit - *mouth and nose
 
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L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
seabreezept813 said:
There’s actually a pretty clear point. People wear masks in public to prevent spread of covid. Wearing a mask in a bank could be a potential issue for criminal activity. Pulling your mask down for a few seconds in front of a camera and then replacing it addresses both safety concerns.
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All this rules are out the window. Now people wear masks going into liquor store, banks and police stations in my area. Even on Halloween in the past where many stores posted signs - No Masks Allowed , are no longer valid.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
seabreezept813 said:
There’s actually a pretty clear point. People wear masks in public to prevent spread of covid. Wearing a mask in a bank could be a potential issue for criminal activity. Pulling your mask down for a few seconds in front of a camera and then replacing it addresses both safety concerns.
Click to expand...

Wait a minute...when did robbing banks like John Dillinger become a “thing” again?

Lilofan said:
All this rules are out the window. Now people wear masks going into liquor store, banks and police stations in my area. Even on Halloween in the past where many stores posted signs - No Masks Allowed , are no longer valid.
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It’s almost like even the fools are wising up??
 
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