Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[seascape]

Its hard to say what would be happening without Covid. Disney has the streaming business which is booming now but with everyone home and movie theaters closed would streaming look as good without the pandemic? The parks segment is obviously really down right now, but the stock price is primarily based on future prospects. If analysts expect the parks to get back to profits as usual in a year or 2 then it shouldn’t harm the stock price unless you believe the company doesn’t have the balance sheet to make it through those 2 years. For TWDC they have plenty of cash and access to plenty more at very low cost.

The stock price is based on the stream of future earnings but the market is looking at parks and resorts coming back to profitability but not at prior levels, which I agree with. It will take until 2023 for attendance to reach the 2019 levels but even that will not provide the same profits because it will be more regular tourist and loss businesses. However, Streaming in going to crush the numbers and provide profits in the billions every quarter. The only question is does it get applied to streaming or the studios. The key number to look at is the eliminations because that represents internal transfers. Any further discussions of the stock price should be on the business section.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Hmm...imagine if things had gone the other way and these people were still afraid of losing their job.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 93 new reported deaths, along with 3 Non-Florida resident deaths.

 

[HarperRose]

...and that’s just manufacturing issues. We still have to worry about distribution as well. There are going to be issues. Anyone who thought it was all going to get off without a hitch was kidding themselves. I think that’s why there’s strength in numbers. The more options available the better.

We already know there is no plan from the current administration for vaccine distribution. They've admitted as much.

 

[GoofGoof]

We already know there is no plan from the current administration for vaccine distribution. They've admitted as much.

I’m a little more optimistic on that front. A lot of the heavy lifting happens at the state level for organizing the actual vaccinations with end patients. The delivery of vaccine from the manufacturer to the state for the Pfizer vaccine is being handled directly by them. For Moderna they are using warp speed which has subcontracted out the delivery to McKesson who has a lot of experience in the industry. Warp speed is also handling the distribution of supplies needed in addition to the physical vaccine but that’s the easy part. I think the biggest risk is having an uneven distribution between states. Where one state follows a more efficient plan and another doesn‘t. It would have helped to have a more organized and centralized process but that’s not really how the US is setup. We saw this with H1N1 where some states did better than others. Some people had little to no issues while others waited in line for hours. Everyone has had 9 months to figure this out and will have several more to perfect it as the vaccine distribution gets more widespread.

 

[DisneyCane]

Hmm...imagine if things had gone the other way and these people were still afraid of losing their job.

Fauci never had an issue going out and saying what he felt needed to be said. Birx could have done the same. If you think the person who can fire you is saying things that are killing people, isn't it a moral obligation (especially for a Doctor) to speak out regardless of the potential personal consequences?

 

[JoeCamel]

We already know there is no plan from the current administration for vaccine distribution. They've admitted as much.

The army is coordinating the distribution planning with getting freezers, moving material and working with private companies (CVS, Walgreens, etc) to do the innoculations along with the healthcare infrastructure.
I will be watching to see if it is FUBAR as so many things have been but maybe it all goes smoothly?

 

[JoeCamel]

Fauci never had an issue going out and saying what he felt needed to be said. Birx could have done the same. If you think the person who can fire you is saying things that are killing people, isn't it a moral obligation (especially for a Doctor) to speak out regardless of the potential personal consequences?

Which is why it is so shocking when one of the doctors (Scott Atlas) dispenses the false and misleading info to try saving face.

 

[GoofGoof]

The army is coordinating the distribution planning with getting freezers, moving material and working with private companies (CVS, Walgreens, etc) to do the innoculations along with the healthcare infrastructure.
I will be watching to see if it is FUBAR as so many things have been but maybe it all goes smoothly?

There’s zero chance it all goes smoothly. They could have had 10 years to plan and it wouldn’t all go smoothly. I think our hope needs to be it’s only mildly botched

 

[jaklgreen]

Yeah, a couple who my wife is friends with went to someone's house on Thanksgiving. Couple days later they found out someone there tested positive, and both of them have subsequently tested positive. Not sure how many others were infected at the same gathering.

We usually do Thanksgiving at our house with my family but not this year. My stupid brother and SIL have been going out and about, without masks this whole time. I know because they post it on social media. They "say" that they have tested positive for covid on 2 separate occasions. Not sure if I believe them since my brother is a liar. So that was a big nope for the holidays for us.

 

[DisneyCane]

There’s zero chance it all goes smoothly. They could have had 10 years to plan and it wouldn’t all go smoothly. I think our hope needs to be it’s only mildly botched

I don't know. Frozen food has been distributed around the country for many decades. Other vaccines and medications are distributed all the time. Logistically, it shouldn't be that complicated to accomplish. Sure it takes planning but I think it can go smoothly.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't know. Frozen food has been distributed around the country for many decades. Other vaccines and medications are distributed all the time. Logistically, it shouldn't be that complicated to accomplish. Sure it takes planning but I think it can go smoothly.

I’m not worried about the delivery from Pfizer to the end user. I’m more worried about organizing who gets the vaccine and when. With both the current candidates they need 2 doses a certain amount of time apart. That’s makes it really tough to manage. I’m not saying they can’t do it, but I think there will be some issues. We are all eventually going to get a vaccination, but it may take a little patience and I’m not so sure a lot of people have that these days.

 

[DisneyCane]

I’m not worried about the delivery from Pfizer to the end user. I’m more worried about organizing who gets the vaccine and when. With both the current candidates they need 2 doses a certain amount of time apart. That’s makes it really tough to manage. I’m not saying they can’t do it, but I think there will be some issues. We are all eventually going to get a vaccination, but it may take a little patience and I’m not so sure a lot of people have that these days.

Gotcha. I think it is less of a distribution issue and more an issue of getting people to keep their appointment for the second shot. I don't know what the government can do to help that except maybe pay people to take the second shot.

 

[Patcheslee]

Gotcha. I think it is less of a distribution issue and more an issue of getting people to keep their appointment for the second shot. I don't know what the government can do to help that except maybe pay people to take the second shot.

I will fully admit it may come down to how bad the side effects are for me. If it's enough to put me out of work even for a day, they're gonna have to excuse it. Our point system sucks.

 

[danlb_2000]

Gotcha. I think it is less of a distribution issue and more an issue of getting people to keep their appointment for the second shot. I don't know what the government can do to help that except maybe pay people to take the second shot.

I am also wondering what happens if you miss your scheduled second dose? Is there a certain window within which you can get the second dose and it still be effective? Do you get to a point where you need to start over with two doses?

 

[GoofGoof]

Gotcha. I think it is less of a distribution issue and more an issue of getting people to keep their appointment for the second shot. I don't know what the government can do to help that except maybe pay people to take the second shot.

I would not be opposed to linking a stimulus check to the vaccine. After your second shot you leave with a sore arm and a check for $1,200

I will fully admit it may come down to how bad the side effects are for me. If it's enough to put me out of work even for a day, they're gonna have to excuse it. Our point system sucks.

I think that should be the case. The incoming administration is pushing for paid sick leave exemptions for people sick with Covid to ensure nobody has to go to work sick. It would be easy enough to extend that to adverse reactions to the vaccine. Not sure if Congress has the appetite to approve that but maybe it could be done with executive order. Who knows.

 

[danlb_2000]

I would not be opposed to linking a stimulus check to the vaccine. After your second shot you leave with a sore arm and a check for $1,200

I think that should be the case. The incoming administration is pushing for paid sick leave exemptions for people sick with Covid to ensure nobody has to go to work sick. It would be easy enough to extend that to adverse reactions to the vaccine. Not sure if Congress has the appetite to approve that but maybe it could be done with executive order. Who knows.

this is one of the great things my company is doing, if you get the virus you get paid sick leave that doesn't come out of you normal paid time off pool.

 

[GoofGoof]

this is one of the great things my company is doing, if you get the virus you get paid sick leave that doesn't come out of you normal paid time off pool.

Mine does it too. i think the issue is some businesses said they couldn’t afford to do that given other financial issues with Covid. The plan is to require it, but have the government pay the business back for those wages paid.

 

[networkpro]

The Governors of the tri-state area NJ/NY/CT put out the travel advisory about other states when they got their positivity rate to hover around 1%, but other states were spiking. They set a minimal threshold that when passed, put another state on the 'red list.' At first, it was only about a dozen states on the list, Then 20, Then 30. Then at 40, NJ itself qualified for the red list, then just about all other states.

Yet they failed at the initial outbreak this spring not making quarantine of thier own populations as they spread it.across the East Coast.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yet they failed at the initial outbreak this spring not making quarantine of thier own populations as they spread it.across the East Coast.

I would hope any good leader would learn from mistakes and adjust their decisions going forward. Are you saying because they made some mistakes in the spring when this first started that any future action is automatically wrong? In the world of political gotcha that might be how the game is played, but I would prefer to see decisions made on the best possible information available even if it contradicts some past decisions.