Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[_caleb]

I agree with the bold sentence 100%. I think WDW is a great example of the way to do things right. I think as time has gone on we have found what’s problematic and what isn’t as high risk. As another example, in Apr/May I have a friend who owns an asphalt and paving business. His guys couldn’t work during the original stay at home orders. Now we’ve determined that outdoor is much less of an issue than indoor and as long as they implement distancing and/or masks when needed for the work crew it’s pretty safe to keep job sites open. IMHO same goes for retail, even non-essential retail. We shut all non-essential stores down in the spring but I don’t think there’s a higher risk going to Dicks Sporting Goods vs Walmart, both should be fine with masks and distancing.

Where the problem comes is stuff like indoor dining or bars or gyms. You can still have them open with proper restrictions but the restrictions are impractical in a lot of cases and the businesses can’t turn a profit. Many gyms aren’t large enough to have proper spacing. Most restaurants can’t stay afloat at 25% capacity or even 50%. Smaller bars can’t stay in business if you eliminate bar seating and required spaced tables. Those are the circumstances where the government needs to step in and make businesses and workers whole.

We recently discussed the research that shows how 4 places (gyms, cafes, restaurants, and hotels) are responsible for a disproportionately large amount of exposure to the virus. This makes it seem that closing/restricting those 4 places should have the largest impact in slowing the spread.

But the issue is more complex than just "close the places that pose the highest risk." There's also the aspect of limiting the total number of opportunities for close contact. This is why restaurants are now being allowed to open (following the protocols) but required to close early, and why alcohol sales are being limited after certain hours. Shortened hours are another way to limit capacity and reduce the number of interactions that may spread the virus.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think bars should be closed down and replacement income offered from the government, since they are being closed through no fault of their own. If other places can't space things out, then probably the same for them. But they need to be approaching this with a scalpel rather than a chainsaw. Any business that can show a plan for distancing, and enforces a mask policy on their premises should be allowed to remain open.

I think that’s what we are seeing most places now. States and other areas that are starting to implement restrictions aren’t going straight to stay at home orders like we had in the spring. Start with indoor dining and gyms and other problem areas. The one thing the government really can’t enforce is private gatherings. I wish more leaders would be unified in telling people not to gather and not to get together in large groups for the holidays. That’s a very big problem we are about to face.

 

[_caleb]

Some in this thread are saying things like stay home except for essential activities. That's pretty much the same as a lockdown. Also, at least one member of the incoming task force for the incoming administration has suggested a 4-6 week shutdown (which is synonymous with lockdown). Many on this thread have been open about the fact that they voted for the incoming administration since they will follow the science. Therefore, it isn't crazy to assume that some percentage of those people support what the incoming administration wants to do.

Ok. Thanks. I thought you might have been responding to something I had said.

I think people should willingly stay home as much as possible.

 

[DisneyTransport]

Unfortunately I think a lot of the infections are happening in homes. There was still a large number of infections happening during the lockdowns back in the spring. I'm not sure we're going to solve that.

I know at a local high school, all cases of groups of students getting covid (again, groups, not individuals) was a result of birthday parties!

 

[drizgirl]

I know at a local high school, all cases of groups of students getting covid (again, groups, not individuals) was a result of birthday parties!

And they knew it was a bad idea already. If they are under the max group numbers, what are you going to do? Force everyone to see absolutely nobody outside of those they reside with for the next 6 months?

 

[Think Tink]

And they knew it was a bad idea already. If they are under the max group numbers, what are you going to do? Force everyone to see absolutely nobody outside of those they reside with for the next 6 months?

It's so hard, especially for children. I have been way more locked down than just about anyone I know but I also know that I am so fortunate that I and my husband can work from home, order groceries online, and have been able to visit with people outside exclusively. It has been hard though, my grandma passed away and we couldn't be there due to the pandemic and we all decided on just a couple family members to surround her. I'd love to say everyone should completely lock down until it gets under control but I know it isn't possible for everyone so I do what I can for my family which means no Christmas and Thanksgiving gatherings but I don't hate on people who may need to visit with others due to whatever reasons. Except if they think this is a hoax, I have a friend who does and I judge him and stay away.

 

[GoofGoof]

And they knew it was a bad idea already. If they are under the max group numbers, what are you going to do? Force everyone to see absolutely nobody outside of those they reside with for the next 6 months?

In some areas they have implemented no groups over 10 people and no more than 2 family groups for indoor gatherings. If you want to see more people do it outside, use masks and distancing and limit the time spent together. It sucks, but yes, it’s necessary to put off those parties and gatherings for 6 months or more until a vaccine is readily available. Do Thanksgiving dinner in July, celebrate a birthday 6 months later. It’s not the end of the world to delay that stuff.

 

[Disstevefan1]

This Coronavirus Surge Does Not Have to Be So Horrific​

 

[drizgirl]

In some areas they have implemented no groups over 10 people and no more than 2 family groups for indoor gatherings. If you want to see more people do it outside, use masks and distancing and limit the time spent together. It sucks, but yes, it’s necessary to put off those parties and gatherings for 6 months or more until a vaccine is readily available. Do Thanksgiving dinner in July, celebrate a birthday 6 months later. It’s not the end of the world to delay that stuff.

Oh, I agree. We've avoided all gatherings like that since March. But in a lot of the country there aren't guidelines like that. And even if there is, you can still spread a the virus in a group of 2 families of 5.

But let's at least be honest. We're not delaying those things. We're cancelling them. We're not having birthdays, Thanksgiving, Easter (possibly 2 of them by the time this is over), Halloween, Christmas etc. when this is all over. We're pretty much just writing the year off.

 

[GoofGoof]

Oh, I agree. We've avoided all gatherings like that since March. But in a lot of the country there aren't guidelines like that. And even if there is, you can still spread a the virus in a group of 2 families of 5.

But let's at least be honest. We're not delaying those things. We're cancelling them. We're not having birthdays, Thanksgiving, Easter (possibly 2 of them by the time this is over), Halloween, Christmas etc. when this is all over. We're pretty much just writing the year off.

The guidelines should be national, but that ship has sailed and we are left with what we have.

I don’t disagree that spread can occur any time 2 people get together, but 2 families is less overall spread vs a group of kids or Thanksgiving with extended family. You avoid superspreader events at least. Even if it’s 2 families they should still use masks and distance and try to stay outside or keep a visit short. My parents came over last weekend and we all sat on my deck for about 2 hours. Plenty of room to spread out and when they went inside to use the bathroom they just put on the masks just in case. It’s harder if your family doesn’t live close. I’ve only seen my in-laws once since this all started but they live about 3 hours away so harder to just stop in for a few hours.

I am not giving up on my get togethers...I’m just delaying them....just like my vacations. We do Christmas at my house every year and I have every intention to have Christmas in July or whenever the vaccine is readily available. I may even break out the tree and decorations. We’re doing it. Same goes for New Years Eve. I have a group I usually get together with every year and we already talked about a full blown NYE party in the summer complete with countdown to midnight. If they could do it every night at PI back in the day we can do it on a random Saturday in July or August

 

[DisneyCane]

What we know for sure is a lot of people are getting infected so someone has to be contagious.

The problem with stuff like this is we just don’t know for sure. It’s a theory but certainly not definitive proof. I think it’s dangerous when people grab on to stuff like this and assume it’s an absolute. It’s much better to err on the side of caution and assume anyone who tests positive is contagious. Many people are looking for any excuse possible to not follow very basic and simple protocols. It’s just tiring to constantly see people fight against acting responsibly. It obviously hasn’t served us well, maybe time for a change of tune.

Of course there are people who are contagious. My point was in response to treating everybody like they are infected and contagious. While "the numbers" are very large when looked at in raw form, as a percentage they are pretty low. There are documented cases in 3.4% of the US population. Even if you quadruple that to account for undetected cases (somewhat reasonable), you're still at 13.7%. That's aggregate over 8 months. Once you take that and try to estimate how many are infected simultaneously and then further estimate the percentage of those that are contagious at any given time, it makes the probability that a given person is currently infected and contagious very low, certainly below 2% (and likely even lower).

Yes, it adds up to a large number of people across a country of 330+ million people which is why measures should be taken to avoid the most likely conditions for transmission. However, because the probability is so low, it does not justify measures that go to "safer at home" orders or essential activity only mandates. For those two be justifiable, a much higher percentage of people would have to be actively contagious.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Sure. Some jobs don't have health insurance. But 100% of stimulus checks come without health insurance.

So...stimulus though would still be helpful, ESPECIALLY for those who don’t have jobs OR health insurance.

We were fortunate in that I was able to add my partner back to our family insurance, albeit at a hefty cost.

 

[DisneyCane]

We recently discussed the research that shows how 4 places (gyms, cafes, restaurants, and hotels) are responsible for a disproportionately large amount of exposure to the virus. This makes it seem that closing/restricting those 4 places should have the largest impact in slowing the spread.
e
But the issue is more complex than just "close the places that pose the highest risk." There's also the aspect of limiting the total number of opportunities for close contact. This is why restaurants are now being allowed to open (following the protocols) but required to close early, and why alcohol sales are being limited after certain hours. Shortened hours are another way to limit capacity and reduce the number of interactions that may spread the virus.

Can you point to this research? Gyms, cafes and restaurants make logical sense but hotels don't really to me. If the rooms are properly sanitized, why would there be a lot of spread there?

 

[networkpro]

I don’t know what you mean but they definitely have- I work with families in China every day and they are back to normal with masks

The same country where inconvenient people just simply disappear.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Can you point to this research? Gyms, cafes and restaurants make logical sense but hotels don't really to me. If the rooms are properly sanitized, why would there be a lot of spread there?

There were several articles posted here on this thread, several days ago.

 

[networkpro]

So...stimulus though would still be helpful, ESPECIALLY for those who don’t have jobs OR health insurance.

We were fortunate in that I was able to add my partner back to our family insurance, albeit at a hefty cost.

But wasn't the Affordable Care Act the solution for getting everyone "health insurance"?

 

[carolina_yankee]

Some in this thread are saying things like stay home except for essential activities. That's pretty much the same as a lockdown. Also, at least one member of the incoming task force for the incoming administration has suggested a 4-6 week shutdown (which is synonymous with lockdown). Many on this thread have been open about the fact that they voted for the incoming administration since they will follow the science. Therefore, it isn't crazy to assume that some percentage of those people support what the incoming administration wants to do.

From

Biden COVID Advisor says US Lockdown . . .

In an interview with NBC News on Thursday, Osterholm clarified his comments, saying “it was not a recommendation. I have never made this recommendation to Biden’s group. We’ve never talked about it.”

“My only point was if we are going to keep making restrictions state-by-state, there is no compensation for the businesses that are being impacted,” he added. “What we’re doing right now is not working.”

A Biden transition official told NBC News that a shutdown “is not in line with the president-elect’s thinking.”

Note the final sentence.

 

[GoofGoof]

But wasn't the Affordable Care Act the solution for getting everyone "health insurance"?

It was for millions of people. It’s not true universal health insurance or a single payer plan which are the only things that would have guaranteed nobody lost their insurance during the pandemic.

 

[GoofGoof]

From

Biden COVID Advisor says US Lockdown . . .



Note the final sentence.

The echo chamber is saying otherwise. Why listen to the actual person when you can listen to a blowhard talking head tell you something that’s not remotely accurate.

 

[drizgirl]

But wasn't the Affordable Care Act the solution for getting everyone "health insurance"?

We can opt in for $900/month. For a plan with a $6000 deductible. At a time we have no income.

Perhaps putting "affordable" in the name was a little too optimistic.