Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

"Today I was notified by NHS Test and Trace that I must self-isolate as I have been in contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19."

"I have no symptoms, but am following the rules and will be working from No 10 as I continue to lead the government's pandemic response."

Boris Johnson self-isolating after MP tests positive for Covid-19

The prime minister says he was contacted by NHS Test and Trace but is not showing any symptoms.

t.co

I’m not going to lie when I first saw this I thought “oh no, not DCBaker ”. Then I realized you were not talking about yourself but quoting Boris Johnson and I was like “oh, good...just that guy”. Sorry Boris

 

[danlb_2000]

I guess, wonder what his science says about that? Nevermind, I just found it odd and it really has nothing to do with here.

He had it back in March, and we really don't have solid science yet on how long immunity lasts once you have had it, or how much you can spread it even if you are immune.

 

[JoeCamel]

He had it back in March, and we really don't have solid science yet on how long immunity lasts once you have had it, or how much you can spread it even if you are immune.

I know, I had it at the beginning of March, hope we find out something along those lines but confirmed reinfection cases to date are 2? 3?

 

[danlb_2000]

I know, I had it at the beginning of March, hope we find out something along those lines but confirmed reinfection cases to date are 2? 3?

Yes, the numbers of confirmed re-infections is small, but it's also a very hard thing to confirm. To be certain about a reinfection you need to know the genetic makeup of the virus that person had originally, then you need to know you have been re-infected and then have the genetic makeup of the re-infection compared to the original. So we are probably missing some re-infections, but they are still probably pretty rare.

 

[Flugell]

I guess, wonder what his science says about that? Nevermind, I just found it odd and it really has nothing to do with here.

I know that I’m from over the pond and may therefore be more interested than those in the USA but find it odd that a significant piece of news could be dismissed as have nothing to do with WDW. I think that if our Prime Minister is seen to be immune it is significant because there is no real element of doubt that he suffered severely from his first infection of COVID-19. This could encourage people who know they have been infected to more safely to travel to WDW, or in general, whilst maintaining social distance and wearing masks of course. If, however, he does develop symptoms or becomes ill, it should serve as a warning that reinfection is a possibility and herd immunity is very unlikely. This could impact hugely on travel and opening businesses and government or state responses. I hope for the sake of Boris and the world that he does not contract the disease again.

 

[Jrb1979]

I agree with the bold sentence 100%. I think WDW is a great example of the way to do things right. I think as time has gone on we have found what’s problematic and what isn’t as high risk. As another example, in Apr/May I have a friend who owns an asphalt and paving business. His guys couldn’t work during the original stay at home orders. Now we’ve determined that outdoor is much less of an issue than indoor and as long as they implement distancing and/or masks when needed for the work crew it’s pretty safe to keep job sites open. IMHO same goes for retail, even non-essential retail. We shut all non-essential stores down in the spring but I don’t think there’s a higher risk going to Dicks Sporting Goods vs Walmart, both should be fine with masks and distancing.

Where the problem comes is stuff like indoor dining or bars or gyms. You can still have them open with proper restrictions but the restrictions are impractical in a lot of cases and the businesses can’t turn a profit. Many gyms aren’t large enough to have proper spacing. Most restaurants can’t stay afloat at 25% capacity or even 50%. Smaller bars can’t stay in business if you eliminate bar seating and required spaced tables. Those are the circumstances where the government needs to step in and make businesses and workers whole.

I agreed with how Disney was doing it safely til they decidedly to increase capacity to 35%.

 

[GoofGoof]

I know this thread moves very fast and sometimes discussions get lost so I setup a separate thread for vaccine updates and general discussion on the vaccines.

Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

With Pfizer’s news dropping last Monday on their vaccine being 90%+ effective in their phase 3 clinical trial I wanted to start a thread dedicated to the vaccine developments. The general Covid thread moves too fast and sometimes vaccine info and discussion gets lost. Feel free to discuss...

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[matt9112]

In a crisis, absolutely. When we get over this plague and our economy is back on solid ground will be the time to pay. Not now.

Because the goverment is well known to scale back after incidents...ever... once you create agencys and professionals to handle a crisis even a legitimate one like this it takes twice as much effort to get rid of them after... almost every three letter agency was created for a specific thing but than became lets do this thing all the time.

As an aside my opinion is rooted in reality when it comes to opening....the us governments track record of helping regular people during a crisis is poor. Without extensive programs that goof has talked about among others i perfer to let businesses have a fighting chance. Sure in a perfect world x y z but we don't live there. Our goverment is inherently not half as centralized as say europe...for you know a well known reason. With that in mind some sort of program that helps people stay afloat is a pipe dream.

My personal opinion on a program would simply be wage compensation aka take everyones 40 hour checks and print them. Like the ppp on steroids. I don't like the flat rate stuff like the 600 bucks...just print the same paycheck that person was cashing and tell them to stay home. On the buisness end would have to create something similar in effect for owners etc. Maybe replicate net?

 

[matt9112]

Curious- are there still people on this thread that truly believe this is

a) ok
b) on its way to go away
c) that we are doing everything we can
d) that it’s no big deal
Etc?

how did China manage to get rid of it almost all together and we can’t? Maybe due to strict stay at home and mask orders for 8 months... and paying their citizens so they wouldn’t feel forced? Nah. Couldn’t be that...

They legitimately locked down citys and in some isolated instances appeared to legitimately locked down apartment blocks and just delivered rations for those inside. Oh and they have the legal authority to do whatever they want because human rights don't exist. The CCP has an advantage with responding to crisis because an argument (like this thread) simply does not occur.

 

[matt9112]

Can you point to this research? Gyms, cafes and restaurants make logical sense but hotels don't really to me. If the rooms are properly sanitized, why would there be a lot of spread there?

Pretty sure the idea is to make traveling hard. Theoretically if you could shut down air travel and close hotels and other things that cater to movement you wouldn't "technically " lock down but if theres no hotel rooms in nyc and no taxis and no airplanes your probably not going to go.

 

[GoofGoof]

Pretty sure the idea is to make traveling hard. Theoretically if you could shut down air travel and close hotels and other things that cater to movement you wouldn't "technically " lock down but if theres no hotel rooms in nyc and no taxis and no airplanes your probably not going to go.

The intention of the travel bans was also to discourage out of state travel. I don’t see them locking down hotels like bars and restaurants but they did have hotel capacity limits back in the spring. Not sure that’s coming back now though. I haven’t seen that anywhere yet.

 

[Jwink]

I don’t think it’s as easy as just remove restrictions and everyone out of work gets to go back to work. It’s a worldwide pandemic. Even in places like Sweden (discussed continuously as this shining example of not implementing restrictions) their economy tanked, they had bailout plans for businesses and workers, there was widespread unemployment. I think for the economy we need to focus on keeping the virus under control first and at the same time making sure we take care of the people who are negatively impacted. It’s far worse for the economy to allow the virus to rage unchecked, as we are seeing now. The hand out as you call it is making sure that people have what they need to eat and pay there bills until we get to a point where they can return to work. It’s not a permanent welfare situation.

To bring it back to WDW, they have essentially written off the rest of 2020 for any return to meaningful profits. They are just treading water. Had the country done a better job on controlling the virus I believe they would have been in a much better position.

Yes if it was uniform

Some in this thread are saying things like stay home except for essential activities. That's pretty much the same as a lockdown. Also, at least one member of the incoming task force for the incoming administration has suggested a 4-6 week shutdown (which is synonymous with lockdown). Many on this thread have been open about the fact that they voted for the incoming administration since they will follow the science. Therefore, it isn't crazy to assume that some percentage of those people support what the incoming administration wants to do.

so not to argue... if that lockdown happened AND the government provided all the necessary funds for those businesses to be OK... why would it be a bad thing? Genuinely asking

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I guess it was different everywhere. Comparing that list to where I live here’s all the stuff that’s less restricted or not at all:

• Retail stores that are deemed non-essential still open with capacity limits
• Restaurants still open for outdoor dining (we only had takeout until late into May)
• Personal services still open with capacity limits (barber shops, nail salons, etc)
• Elective medical procedures and non-essential doctors offices not closed. Dentists open, eye doctors, etc
• Outdoor work like construction not prohibited
• even the social gathering requirements a little more open than the Spring

To me it seems a lot more targeted. They have really focused on indoor activities that we know are a problem and only those that are done without masks and distancing.

I think it just seems targeted for now to minimize public outrage. I think eventually we will end up at a spring level lockdown, possibly even a more hefty lockdown, but leaders know they need to ease into it right now. This is what France, England, Spain, and other European countries did, roll to a full lockdown but they rolled there slowly.

 

[Jwink]

I think this is coming in a lot of places. It’s a far cry from the Spring lockdowns, but I’m sure the political pundits will declare this “draconian” and a full lock down.

Do we think it will happen in Florida? Probably not because of who our governor is

 

[GoofGoof]

I think it just seems targeted for now to minimize public outrage. I think eventually we will end up at a spring level lockdown, possibly even a more hefty lockdown, but leaders know they need to ease into it right now. This is what France, England, Spain, and other European countries did, roll to a full lockdown but they rolled there slowly.

We shall see. There’s no reason to restrict things that aren’t causing an issue.

 

[GoofGoof]

Do we think it will happen in Florida? Probably not because of who our governor is

I think it will eventually to some extent. He pulled back on bars and restaurants eventually in the summer. If things get bad enough he won’t have a choice.

 

[Jwink]

I’m not going to lie when I first saw this I thought “oh no, not DCBaker ”. Then I realized you were not talking about yourself but quoting Boris Johnson and I was like “oh, good...just that guy”. Sorry Boris

Ditto I was like... why did he post a an article with it? Lol

 

[techgeek]

I think WDW is a great example of the way to do things right. I think as time has gone on we have found what’s problematic and what isn’t as high risk.

I agreed with how Disney was doing it safely til they decidedly to increase capacity to 35%.

This is setting up to be an.. interesting.. situation that I'm not quite sure if WDW has a plan for: What happens when you have an out of control outbreak elsewhere in the country?

Clearly, if you go by the metrics of Florida or the more local metrics for Orange County, the community spread of the virus - while currently rising - is still well below what it was in July when the parks opened. Fingers can perhaps rightly be pointed at that and say that operations don't need to change, the plan is working, and this can be done safely... and in fact, we're seeing expansion of capacity, slow but steady reopening of closed venues, and a new 'business as a new normal' attitude. All the while, the guest mix has shifted dramatically away from the opening crowds of mostly Florida residents and optimistic DVC owners to a demographic that is alarmingly swinging towards many of the current hot spots.

Should WDW operations change, or even pause again, in light of what's now dramatically happening in its feeder markets?

In addition, WDW may have been an example of 'doing things right', but have they shown any willingness to adapt or react to new developments in our understanding of the spread of the virus? Recent roll-back orders from several state governors hit directly on the now obvious issues we have identified inherent with indoor dining and time spent in crowds indoors (even with mask usage).

There was also a relatively recent CDC guidance change that now indicates the 15 minute 'exposure' guideline should not be interpreted to be in one session. It can be 15 minutes of cumulative exposure, and not necessarily of the same contagious individual. What does that guidance indicate for cast members like servers that are in routine contact with hundreds of unmasked guests throughout the course of a shift?

I had confidence that WDW was taking the right approach to this. A lack of willingness to address some of these newer concerns, along with negative crowding experiences I've personally witnessed at Springs has caused that confidence to begin to waver. I took my 80 year old grandmother to EPCOT back in September. I could not in good conscience recommend that same excursion today.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

This is setting up to be an.. interesting.. situation that I'm not quite sure if WDW has a plan for: What happens when you have an out of control outbreak elsewhere in the country?

Clearly, if you go by the metrics of Florida or the more local metrics for Orange County, the community spread of the virus - while currently rising - is still well below what it was in July when the parks opened. Fingers can perhaps rightly be pointed at that and say that operations don't need to change, the plan is working, and this can be done safely... and in fact, we're seeing expansion of capacity, slow but steady reopening of closed venues, and a new 'business as a new normal' attitude. All the while, the guest mix has shifted dramatically away from the opening crowds of mostly Florida residents and optimistic DVC owners to a demographic that is alarmingly swinging towards many of the current hot spots.

Should WDW operations change, or even pause again, in light of what's now dramatically happening in its feeder markets?

In addition, WDW may have been an example of 'doing things right', but have they shown any willingness to adapt or react to new developments in our understanding of the spread of the virus? Recent roll-back orders from several state governors hit directly on the now obvious issues we have identified inherent with indoor dining and time spent in crowds indoors (even with mask usage).

There was also a relatively recent CDC guidance change that now indicates the 15 minute 'exposure' guideline should not be interpreted to be in one session. It can be 15 minutes of cumulative exposure, and not necessarily of the same contagious individual. What does that guidance indicate for cast members like servers that are in routine contact with hundreds of unmasked guests throughout the course of a shift?

I had confidence that WDW was taking the right approach to this. A lack of willingness to address some of these newer concerns, along with negative crowding experiences I've personally witnessed at Springs has caused that confidence to begin to waver. I took my 80 year old grandmother to EPCOT back in September. I could not in good conscience recommend that same excursion today.

I mentioned this before, but I think once the death toll starts exploding, Disney will see they have no choice, whether its for their own safety, pressure from cast members, or pressure from the public. I predict they close again at some point in the next 2 months.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Here is a sobering perspective: