Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disstevefan1]

The U.S.'s stats certainly are exceptional...

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Am I misreading this data? While the cases are up, the percent positive is (somewhat flat) and the deaths are (somewhat flat). This is good, right?

 

[SamusAranX]

I can’t say. I do t know enough but I would peg identification and management as the two big criteria. When we can better identify who is sick so they know to stay home or can bear some responsibility and hospitals have sufficient capacity that they’re not operating at surge levels for weeks during even their slowest times.

I somewhat agree here, affordable and rapid testing will be key.

 

[mattpeto]

Am I misreading this data? While the cases are up, the percent positive is (somewhat flat) and the deaths are (somewhat flat). This is good, right?

FWIW, that's how I saw the graphs too.

 

[Disstevefan1]

That‘s ok. Thanks for the apology. I misread posts and misjudge intent pretty frequently myself.

The point remains that no data has been released about the number of people (CMs or guests) who may have been exposed or infected at a Disney park.

I know it would be difficult to definitively identify Disney properties as the source of an outbreak, but as far as we’re aware, no attempt has been made. Disney and the state government have no interest in tracking/reporting this information.

While I agree, the state and local government would not want to look, but you would think the mainstream media would want to investigate. Maybe they did and its not actually possible, or there is nothing newsworthy to report.

In general, I think contact tracing is so expensive and difficult and unless you can return real accurate data really fast, all the work to get the data is useless. "Accurate data" I laugh as I write this, we have seen how bad all this data has been over time.

 

[Kevin_W]

Am I misreading this data? While the cases are up, the percent positive is (somewhat flat) and the deaths are (somewhat flat). This is good, right?

It's.... okay? We'd obviously like all those things to be decreasing. But at least deaths have not skyrocketed along with new cases. Hospitalizations have increased markedly with the new cases, but so far mortality has not followed.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

If you can stand to do your research, you will find that the states are funding the testing, not your insurance.

If you look closely at any policy, it excludes epidemics, terrorism, etc.

State governments providing funding for testing is because it is a public health emergency and has nothing to do with whether or not insurance companies cover testing for pandemics. Also, I was tested at an urgent care facility in late September and the EOB from my insurance company says they paid for it and makes no mention of the state paying anything. Just because there are state-run and county-run testing sites doesn't mean that insurance companies won't pay for your testing at a private facility and certainly doesn't mean they won't pay for your hospitalization. There may be a deductible that needs to be paid before insurance kicks in, but that's no different from any other illness or injury and isn't remotely the same as insurance not covering COVID-19.

And if you mean that life insurance doesn't cover pandemics, you're still wrong. I did my own research like you suggested and it took me all of 5 seconds to type the search into Google and find this from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners: https://content.naic.org/sites/defa.../Insurance Brief - Covid-19 and Insurance.pdf

The key quote can be found on page 3: "There is no pandemic exclusion for life insurance. General life insurance covers pandemics, assuming you were truthful about your travel plans and exposure to illness during the application process." So unless this alleged widow and her husband applied for life insurance during the pandemic and explicitly lied to the insurance company about their travel plans then there is no basis for the insurance company to not pay out the policy.

 

[matt9112]

You can’t eliminate all exposure. I agree with that. What we can do is limit exposure to everyone (including the high risk population) by implementing some simple safety measures nationwide:

• Masks anywhere outside the home where social distancing isn’t possible
• social distancing everywhere
• no large group gatherings (at home or in public)
• for indoor activities masks and distancing are especially important.
• For restaurants and bars: masks for all staff, masks for all customers except when seated at a table eating, all tables 6 feet apart, no seating at the bar, no standing room area
• When possible allow high risk workers to either work remotely or work in a role with less contact with the public
• Any worker that can work remotely should be
• Continue to offer “senior hours“ and/or carve out times and places where high risk people can go about tjeir business with less chance of exposure, if possible.

If all of this was implemented and followed and enforced nationwide I believe the case counts would be much lower and everyone would be able to participate in the economy and go about their business. I would still encourage higher risk people to avoid large crowd places like a theme park or indoor dining venue but that would be voluntary.

On the economic front, the vast majority of the economy can function under the scenario laid out above. Maybe not every single business, but the vast majority, so the economy and society don‘t need to grind to a halt. The final step would be to look at the businesses and workers directly harmed by there rules and have the government make them whole. Business owners and also their workers. I’m not saying any of this is easy, but it’s doable if we all bought in.

Your business restrictions make them simply unprofitable...especially in citys where rent is insane. So how do you save those buisness owners? And everything they provide to the community?

 

[MisterPenguin]

Am I misreading this data? While the cases are up, the percent positive is (somewhat flat) and the deaths are (somewhat flat). This is good, right?

This spells it out with regard to deaths:

A 17% increase in deaths. The death rate increase has been in the double digits all week.

The number of cases is spiking.

And the positivity for the U.S. wasn't even posted.

Are you confusing the FL post with the US post?

 

[matt9112]

Do you think Disney world is operating under draconian measures?

Not selling APs is pretty 1500s

 

[Touchdown]

New cases spike first, most people experience one to two weeks of minor symptoms. However 1 person in 5 will after those 1-2 weeks become seriously ill. Therefore new hospitalizations spike 1-2 weeks later.

People hospitalized for Covid stay in the hospital on average 1-2 weeks. Most will get better and go home but 1 in 20 of them will die (assuming all deaths occur amongst the hospitalized patients, which is an oversimplification but not too far off.). Therefore deaths will spike 1-2 weeks after hospitalizations, and 2-4 weeks after new cases.

Every spike the open up crowd goes through the same cycle, first it’s well hospitalizations are still low, then it’s but look at the death rate, then it’s new cases are falling again we must get rid of these restrictions now! The economy needs us!

Meanwhile more people die, sensible people restrict their economic engagement without intervention and we continue our slide down the toilet.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

New cases spike first, most people experience one to two weeks of minor symptoms. However 1 person in 5 will after those 1-2 weeks become seriously ill. Therefore new hospitalizations spike 1-2 weeks later.

People hospitalized for Covid stay in the hospital on average 1-2 weeks. Most will get better and go home but 1 in 20 of them will die (assuming all deaths occur amongst the hospitalized patients, which is an oversimplification but not to far off.). Therefore deaths will spike 1-2 weeks after hospitalizations, and 2-4 weeks after new cases.

Every spike the open up crowd goes through the same cycle, first it’s well hospitalizations are still low, then it’s but look at the death rate, then it’s new cases are falling again we must get rid of these restrictions now! The economy needs us!

Meanwhile more people die, sensible people restrict their economic engagement without intervention and we continue our slide down the toilet.

And don't forget, "Those deaths are from weeks ago!" once the deaths are reported. There's always a reason to ignore the data, but never a reason to look back and acknowledge that maybe they were wrong to ignore the data that they now dismiss as "a lag."

 

[MisterPenguin]

BTW, this is the positivity for the U.S.:

 

[Touchdown]

There is a problem in the percent positive number this far into the pandemic however. How most states calculate it is that a person is only counted as a negative test, the first time they get tested. If they later test positive they will be reported once more as a positive the first time that happens.

A big problem, that is skewing the data, is that due to availability, ease, and federal requirements we are testing a small segment (nursing home residents, hospital patients, essential workers) multiple times which dont figure into the data after their first negative test (until they turn positive.) We continue to not test enough people because of lack of rapid testing.

What’s so funny is there is a possibility that “slowing the testing down” has caused the percent positive numbers to look much worse then they might be (without numbers I can’t say definitely) because we are only testing the people most likely to get Covid.

 

[Tink242424]

Maybe, but I hope @Tink242424 responds. If you advocate house parties with no restrictions during the holidays, it's not going to be just the young participating. Or are we talking about house parties with social distancing and masks - and for everyone, or just the people deemed high risk? I just wonder how this is supposed to work.

I don't know what Sirwalterraleigh wrote as I ignore him but yeah I'm fine with those willing to take risks going to house parties without masks or social distancing. However those same people should stay away from high risk individuals unless the high risk individual is okay with taking the same risk.

You can't police everyone and you can't force everyone to have your same set of beliefs and values. The young and healthy shouldn't be forced to isolate like those who are high risk. Hell, even high risk people shouldn't be FORCED to isolate. It should be up to the person and then they have to accept any consequences of their behavior.

 

[Tink242424]

And I would maintain that you were missing my point, which is that it seems counterintuitive to take taxes out of money being given to people to help them. In FL, the maximum weekly payment for unemployment is $275. After factoring out taxes, it's far less.

Also, when you say that people should sweep the streets, or pick up trash in exchange for govt money, do you know that mirrors? China. EVERYONE must work in China, no matter what. And those that aren't skilled, are tasked with street sweeping and such for a government stipend While traveling there last year, our tour guide kept mentioning that fact.View attachment 509635

Gotcha as I did miss your point about why take taxes out when it is being funded by tax payers. I see the flawed logic there by our government.

And I think we are a bit different then China but if China requires that you do something for government money then I"m all for it. Social security started as money for building schools and roads and all sorts of other community projects. If your going to get welfare or disability you should be able to do something even if it is just cleaning streets. Some disabled people could work on a computer doing data entry or something. I'm against people just getting money to sit home and do nothing.

 

[Tink242424]

I was thinking more where at risk persons are part of the job but not employees. Doctors, nurses, paramedics, orderlies, janitors, valets, drivers, cooks, servers, pharmacists, receptionists, social workers and the many other jobs that occur just in a hospital.

And yes, I do think they can work just fine if they are taking part in riskier behaviors. They should still mask and social distance at work. If they are sick or they know they were exposed to COVID then they should quarantine.

Most people who work in hospitals in hot spots have already been exposed to COVID no matter where they work.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

And yes, I do think they can work just fine if they are taking part in riskier behaviors. They should still mask and social distance at work. If they are sick or they know they were exposed to COVID then they should quarantine.

Most people who work in hospitals in hot spots have already been exposed to COVID no matter where they work.

All this is flawed. People can be infected and spread the virus without even being aware of it. So Joe goes to a party maskless, picks up the virus, but doesn't have any symptoms. He goes to work the next day and infects his coworker, Bruce, who has been being extremely careful, as he's older and at high risk for severe symptoms. Now all of Bruce's efforts at protecting himself have been for nothing...because Joe made his choice for him.

It just doesn't work the way you'd like it to.

 

[marni1971]

Like I said in a previous post, “stupid” comes into it a lot.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Are you in a high risk group for COVID? If so, by all means be careful. If not, you've got to live your life. COVID will be around for a long time even with a vaccine. We have one life to live. Don't waste it if you aren't high risk. Just some unsolicited advice.

I’m not but I’m in contact with my parents who are.

I’m living my life. I go out to state parks, National Forests, and other outdoor activities.

I COULD travel and then quarantine before being in contact with my parents. Like I said, I’m considering that. But I have to feel safe about traveling by air.

 

[_caleb]

While I agree, the state and local government would not want to look, but you would think the mainstream media would want to investigate. Maybe they did and its not actually possible, or there is nothing newsworthy to report.

In general, I think contact tracing is so expensive and difficult and unless you can return real accurate data really fast, all the work to get the data is useless. "Accurate data" I laugh as I write this, we have seen how bad all this data has been over time.

The media are investigating, but the information is difficult to come by. Disney's only response has been:

“The data shows that we opened responsibly,” Dr. Pamela Hymel, chief medical officer for Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, said by phone. “We didn’t cause a surge.”

But without any actual numbers (more specific than what the state is reporting), we just don't know that's true. And nobody is tracking exposures/infections across state lines.

Contact tracing is necessary for public health during an epidemic. It is a valuable and effective tool that can help locate and contain the virus. Accurate data (and fast) would indeed make contact tracing as valuable as possible. What's making that job so much more difficult are the premature lowering of restrictions and the many people who refuse to follow public health guidelines and insist on "living life" at the risk of endangering others.