Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disstevefan1]

When someone says death rates this year are in line with previous years... they lie:

View attachment 494024

See how that first spike correlates to the initial spikes in the tri-state area? See the second spike (which health officials warned us about) correlates to the Southern states' spike?

True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 377,000 (Published 2021)

Since coronavirus struck, more people have died than usual in every state of the country, with 23 states seeing deaths above normal peaking in the last two months, according to a New York Times analysis.

www.nytimes.com

How could death rates be in line? During the initial outbreak of the CCP virus, patients were immediately put on ventilators and died.

Normally, ventilators are the LAST attempt at saving or prolonging life, patients most of the time do not live to come off the ventilators.

 

[Heppenheimer]

How could death rates be in line? During the initial outbreak of the CCP virus, patients were immediately put on ventilators and died.

Normally, ventilators are the LAST attempt at saving or prolonging life, patients most of the time do not live to come off the ventilators.

Not true at all. A ventilator is usually only a temporizing measure, and most patients placed on one (for any reason) successfully wean off within 1-5 days.

 

[Touchdown]

Not true at all. A ventilator is usually only a temporizing measure, and most patients placed on one (for any reason) successfully wean off within 1-5 days.

If you are put on a ventilator for a non surgical reason it is because you have developed Acute Respiratory Failure, and without the ventilator you will die in minutes-hours. A lot of the time we are able to reverse this with the extra time a ventilator gives us but does not change the severity of your illness. The Intensive Care Unit is where we treat critically ill patients, everyone who is on a ventilator in an ICU is by definition critically ill.

On average it takes a person 1 week to recover for each day they are on a ventilator, 4 days means you won’t be 100% for a month. It is not something to brush aside.

 

[Heppenheimer]

If you are put on a ventilator for a non surgical reason it is because you have developed Acute Respiratory Failure, and without the ventilator you will die in minutes-hours. A lot of the time we are able to reverse this with the extra time a ventilator gives us but does not change the severity of your illness. The Intensive Care Unit is where we treat critically ill patients, everyone who is on a ventilator in an ICU is by definition critically ill.

On average it takes a person 1 week to recover for each day they are on a ventilator, 4 days means you won’t be 100% for a month. It is not something to brush aside.

True, yes, but I was responding to the statement that most people on a ventilator will never come off one, which is certainly not the case.

 

[Touchdown]

True, yes, but I was responding to the statement that most people on a ventilator will never come off one, which is certainly not the case.

Most people do, however when it comes to Covid that does not appear to be true. I don’t have the exact numbers, but from anecdotal evidence and the fact that guidelines from Covid explicitly discourage using ventilators if at all possible I would be shocked if we have a 50% recovery in Covid patients that end up on a vent.

 

[Mark52479]

1,900 new cases for yesterday. Lowest since June

Waiting for more data

 

[easyrowrdw]

When someone says death rates this year are in line with previous years... they lie:

View attachment 494024

See how that first spike correlates to the initial spikes in the tri-state area? See the second spike (which health officials warned us about) correlates to the Southern states' spike?

True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 377,000 (Published 2021)

Since coronavirus struck, more people have died than usual in every state of the country, with 23 states seeing deaths above normal peaking in the last two months, according to a New York Times analysis.

www.nytimes.com

Great info. I wonder why so many states have below normal numbers of deaths at the beginning of the year.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Great info. I wonder why so many states have below normal numbers of deaths at the beginning of the year.

Statistical blip, perhaps?

 

[LukeS7]

Great info. I wonder why so many states have below normal numbers of deaths at the beginning of the year.

Not 100% sure of NYT's methodology, but it seems like they might be using the upper bound threshold for excess deaths from the CDC's chart as their baseline.

EDIT: After a closer look, NYT is using the "Average expected number of deaths" as the baseline for theirs

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[Andrew C]

Numbers are out -

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A drop in testing but a positivity rate that is in line with the last week or so. Interesting.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A drop in testing but a positivity rate that is in line with the last week or so. Interesting.

Less tests overall recently are occurring (whether it's due to the latest CDC kerfuffled recommendation, <shrug>).

Which could mean those who have symptoms are making up a larger portion of those who are taking tests, which, in turn, increases the positivity rate; and that's why it's plateauing rather than going down.

Which I hope is the case. OTOH, we seen plenty of these second wave states keep a plateaued positivity rate for months with a slow burn going through the population without abatement.

C'mon Florida, wear your masks, stop the parties, and get it under control!

 

[deeevo]

Numbers are out -

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[easyrowrdw]

Statistical blip, perhaps?

Not 100% sure of NYT's methodology, but it seems like they might be using the upper bound threshold for excess deaths from the CDC's chart as their baseline.

EDIT: After a closer look, NYT is using the "Average expected number of deaths" as the baseline for theirs

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

I'm not sure. I assume the expected deaths are on a per-month basis. If you're consistently getting numbers below what you expect, then you're either looking at a change in the pattern or your model needs some adjustment. But once you add in the data from March on, it throws everything off so who knows. I just thought it was interesting.

 

[Kevin_W]

Numbers are out -

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Nice to see seaths <100 for a change. Hopefully those continue to trend downward. (And that it's not just a Sunday thing. My state has had an average of 22 deaths per day for the past month, but only an average of ~3 per day on Sundays.)

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'm not sure. I assume the expected deaths are on a per-month basis. If you're consistently getting numbers below what you expect, then you're either looking at a change in the pattern or your model needs some adjustment. But once you add in the data from March on, it throws everything off so who knows. I just thought it was interesting.

I read of a teacher who, in the Spring, before schools closed, noted the lack of usual school colds and flus, presumably because of increased hygiene vigilance under threat of COVID. So, maybe as people started being more careful and turtling, and before the widespread death toll that swept through nursing homes, the lower numbers were because of that.

Just a hypothesis.

 

[GoofGoof]

Numbers are out -

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It looks like the testing backlog is much improved. We are back to seeing the weekend dip in testing if you look at 8/23, 8/24 and 8/30. If the pattern holds testing and cases should be down again tomorrow.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I read of a teacher who, in the Spring, before schools closed, noted the lack of usual school colds and flus, presumably because of increased hygiene vigilance under threat of COVID. So, maybe as people started being more careful and turtling, and before the widespread death toll that swept through nursing homes, the lower numbers were because of that.

Just a hypothesis.

Maybe so. Although that doesn't sound like something we'd actually do.

 

[hopemax]

I'm not sure. I assume the expected deaths are on a per-month basis. If you're consistently getting numbers below what you expect, then you're either looking at a change in the pattern or your model needs some adjustment. But once you add in the data from March on, it throws everything off so who knows. I just thought it was interesting.

My guess is that 2019-2020 flu season was a touch less severe than the models predicted. I Googled and found an article from April that listed it out by weeks. It didn’t have January, but it did have February. For those weeks it was hitting 95-96% of expected. IMO, that’s pretty accurate. I wouldn’t expect it to be dead on, but wobble around the expected, sometimes high, sometimes low, as long as there isn’t something significant (like a pandemic). The bar graph may be giving the impression that it’s more than a few percentage points? There is no scale shown for the under.

 

[SamusAranX]

I got tested last Thursday and am still waiting for results. Maybe the backlog isn’t as bad, but it’s still there