Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

And so I'm not accused of only posting negative news. LA Times story about a San Francisco Doctor, pulling from studies regarding viral loads, in reviewing the 1918 pandemic, flu studies, etc., postulating: While people may still get sick even while wearing masks, that the viral load they receive is low enough for more people to avoid serious cases. She also pointed to a cruise ship, where 80% of infected passengers and crew were asymtomatic even though "in the wild" cases are pointing toward only 40% asymtomatic, and a seafood plant where 95% of cases were asymtomatic. The difference: everyone was given masks.

(I don't know if this is behind a paywall, currently I didn't get one, but I haven't been reading many LA Times articles recently)

Wearing masks could help you avoid major illness even if you get coronavirus, experts say

Skeptics say: Why wear masks if they don't filter out all coronavirus? Scientists say: Because it could mean less severe illness.

www.latimes.com

So wearing a mask, will help you not get sick. Wearing a mask when you are exposed to a high enough virus quantity that you do get sick, you may not get seriously sick. This is good news for medical professionals, employees, including theme park workers, theme park guests and even things like movie theaters.

Caveat, this is a postulation and not a published study, or even a pre-print of a study.

 

[hsisthebest]

My main argument for Mr. Rowe and others who use the "car accident" comparison/analogy is that with Covid we do not need to resign to the fact that hundreds of thousands of people will die from this virus. There is a way to effectively control the cases to a bare minimum and restart a counrty/economy- just look at most other industrialized nations that have faced this crisis and started seeing a spike in cases at the same time as us. Here are some approximate NATIONAL 7 day cases vs death ave.:

Italy: 260/9
Germany: 600/3
Canada: 550/7
France: 975/8

So back to the car analogy. Would we as Americans look at other countries that developed a real and attainable strategy to reduce automobile accidents/deaths to a fraction of the U.S. and say: "well there is nothing we can do about this, we just need to accept what will come?"

If nationwide we would "park our cars" (lockdown) for 10-12 weeks- not easy but by no means man's most difficult challenge we could then avoid having to "accept things as they are."

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[lazyboy97o]

People most definitely would take notice if the number of automobile deaths suddenly more than quadrupled. Florida is starting to see more people die of COVID-19 in one day than would typically die due to an automobile accident in the entire US.

 

[DCBaker]

“Over the last few months, it’s become clear that nothing can be set in stone when it comes to how we release films during this global health crisis, and today that means pausing our release plans for ‘Mulan’ as we assess how we can most effectively bring this film to audiences around the world,” a Disney spokesperson said."

"In addition to the global pandemic, theater closures and production shutdowns, the Burbank, CA made a slew of other calendar changes as well, more specifically, all Avatar and Star Wars movies have been pushed by a year, i.e. Avatar 2 (Dec. 17, 2021 is now Dec. 16, 2022), Avatar 3 (previously Dec. 22, 2023 is now Dec. 20, 2024), Avatar 4 (formerly Dec. 19, 2025 goes to Dec. 18, 2026), Avatar 5 (previously Dec. 27, 2027 goes to Dec. 22, 2028)."

‘Mulan’ Off The Calendar; Disney Also Delays ‘Avatar’ & ‘Star Wars’ Movies By One Year As Studio Adjusts To Pandemic

Disney is no longer releasing Mulan on Aug. 21 and is unsetting the movie for the time being. Oy, just when AMC was looking to turn the lights back on with a big movie in pockets of the country. I understand that the No. 1 industry leader at the global box office isn’t waiting to see where […]

deadline.com

 

[mmascari]

This is a long read, but I think it sums up the feelings of many: https://mikerowe.com/2020/07/im-not-ignoring-covid/

I'm not saying I agree or disagree with Mike (or his faith in the opinions of Dr. Osterholm), but he is pretty eloquent about his views.

He's given up, gone through the stages of grief and just accepted that while he can do his little part, there's nobody that can deal with it at a macro level to improve the scenarios.

It's a very depressing outlook. If we had thought that throughout history, things would be much worse.

Using the vehicle fatality analogy, and Wikipedia (shh, it's my data source and tough )

Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In 1950 there were 33,186 deaths across 458 billion miles driven, 7.24 per million miles. The population was 152 million, 21.79 deaths per 100,000 people.

In 2015 there were 35,485 deaths across 3,095 billion miles driven, 1.15 per million miles. The population was 321 million, 11.06 deaths per 100,000 people.

If we had done nothing from 1950 to 2015, using the 1950 rates and 2015 miles, that would have been 224,259 deaths. People probably would drive less, and probably do individual things to reduce their personal risk some. So, it probably wouldn't be the full size. But, you can bet, if there were 150,000 deaths every year from driving, things would be different. And he's talking about 4 times that number.

The argument isn't "what can one person do to improve the outcome", it's "what can the entire system do to improve the outcome". As a country, we're not doing the things that reduce the spread. We're doing the things that can slow the spread (sort of, in some places more than others). Since, as an individual, slowing is what we can control.

Please, nobody just accept that half a million or more people are going to just die and there's nothing we can do but accept it, so might as well have fun.

On the Disney side, I believe they're doing the things they can to slow the spread while staying open. If they closed, that still wouldn't reduce spread, and they're doing things with the goal of keeping any increased spread impact (vs closed) as low as possible. While I will not be going, I don't condemn anyone that want's to go.

 

[Dutch Inn '76]

He's given up, gone through the stages of grief and just accepted that while he can do his little part, there's nobody that can deal with it at a macro level to improve the scenarios.

It's a very depressing outlook. If we had thought that throughout history, things would be much worse.

Using the vehicle fatality analogy, and Wikipedia (shh, it's my data source and tough )

Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In 1950 there were 33,186 deaths across 458 billion miles driven, 7.24 per million miles. The population was 152 million, 21.79 deaths per 100,000 people.

In 2015 there were 35,485 deaths across 3,095 billion miles driven, 1.15 per million miles. The population was 321 million, 11.06 deaths per 100,000 people.

If we had done nothing from 1950 to 2015, using the 1950 rates and 2015 miles, that would have been 224,259 deaths. People probably would drive less, and probably do individual things to reduce their personal risk some. So, it probably wouldn't be the full size. But, you can bet, if there were 150,000 deaths every year from driving, things would be different. And he's talking about 4 times that number.

The argument isn't "what can one person do to improve the outcome", it's "what can the entire system do to improve the outcome". As a country, we're not doing the things that reduce the spread. We're doing the things that can slow the spread (sort of, in some places more than others). Since, as an individual, slowing is what we can control.

Please, nobody just accept that half a million or more people are going to just die and there's nothing we can do but accept it, so might as well have fun.

On the Disney side, I believe they're doing the things they can to slow the spread while staying open. If they closed, that still wouldn't reduce spread, and they're doing things with the goal of keeping any increased spread impact (vs closed) as low as possible. While I will not be going, I don't condemn anyone that want's to go.

<sigh> That's not what he's saying.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Yes, this isn’t about politics or blaming the current administration. The federal government should and in the future will hopefully have a better plan in place. I can’t say it would have been easy to see THIS coming but something less disruptive was a good possibility. We should have been better prepared. Hopefully its lessons learned, just like there were changes at FEMA after Katrina.

I think perhaps you are underselling the importance of competent employees. A plan itself isn't enough.

In the PotC movie, the pirate's code is more what you'd call guidelines than actual rules, at least until the scene where they bring out the codex in PotC: At World's End.

Plans aren't enough, you also need a (Keith Richards' kinda) Captain Teague.

 

[Slpy3270]

“Over the last few months, it’s become clear that nothing can be set in stone when it comes to how we release films during this global health crisis, and today that means pausing our release plans for ‘Mulan’ as we assess how we can most effectively bring this film to audiences around the world,” a Disney spokesperson said."

"In addition to the global pandemic, theater closures and production shutdowns, the Burbank, CA made a slew of other calendar changes as well, more specifically, all Avatar and Star Wars movies have been pushed by a year, i.e. Avatar 2 (Dec. 17, 2021 is now Dec. 16, 2022), Avatar 3 (previously Dec. 22, 2023 is now Dec. 20, 2024), Avatar 4 (formerly Dec. 19, 2025 goes to Dec. 18, 2026), Avatar 5 (previously Dec. 27, 2027 goes to Dec. 22, 2028)."

‘Mulan’ Off The Calendar; Disney Also Delays ‘Avatar’ & ‘Star Wars’ Movies By One Year As Studio Adjusts To Pandemic

Disney is no longer releasing Mulan on Aug. 21 and is unsetting the movie for the time being. Oy, just when AMC was looking to turn the lights back on with a big movie in pockets of the country. I understand that the No. 1 industry leader at the global box office isn’t waiting to see where […]

deadline.com

At this rate Iger and Chapek should just quit knowing that the company will go down the way of Enron (along with the rest of the media conglomerates).

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Id like to give those people the benefit of the doubt, but based on some of the things that have been said, I'm more inclined to believe they're selfish and heartless.

I'm inclined to think some folks enjoy trolling others just see how long they can keep the thread going. Just because someone posts it on the internet, doesn't mean it is true.

Often the people who protest pink pajamas the loudest are the ones actually who wear pink pajamas every night.

 

[chrisvee]

Except that Mike Rowe, has a persona to portray and protect as well. He has built a reputation and career around the persona of being a thoughtful, "everyman." The sane, middle-of-the-road position, surrounded by idiots on both sides. With favoritism to "hard workers that are usually ignored in society." The problem is that this implied "reasonable" position, can be a harmful one, when a situation requires swift, specific and/or decisive action, and the middle option is slower, varying, and less decisive. So sane and normal /= correct conclusions.

co-sign

so now we have someone with a platform leveraging their brand to advocate for ‘just live with it, a lot of people will die’

I really can’t understand it; why not just stay silent?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

well there will be no RNC in florida.

 

[Lilofan]

well there will be no RNC in florida.

No RNC convention because it's not safe to do but a push to have kids back in school

 

[oceanbreeze77]

No RNC convention because it's not safe to do but a push to have kids back in school

actions speak louder than words, and this cancellation is SCREAMING trouble.

 

[Disstevefan1]

And on a brighter side...

 

[GoofGoof]

actions speak louder than words, and this cancellation is SCREAMING trouble.

"People making travel arrangements all the over the country, they wanted to be there," Trump said, adding that “I just felt it was wrong to have people going to what turned out to be a hot spot."

Hmmm....he feels it’s wrong to have people from all over the country traveling to a hot spot....

Trump cancels in-person Republican convention in Jacksonville, Florida

The president's announcement comes as coronavirus cases continue to rise in Florida. Many Republican leaders said they would not attend.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[oceanbreeze77]

"People making travel arrangements all the over the country, they wanted to be there," Trump said, adding that “I just felt it was wrong to have people going to what turned out to be a hot spot."

Hmmm....he feels it’s wrong to have people from all over the country traveling to a hot spot....

Trump cancels in-person Republican convention in Jacksonville, Florida

The president's announcement comes as coronavirus cases continue to rise in Florida. Many Republican leaders said they would not attend.

www.nbcnews.com

who woulda thunk it?

 

[Kevin_W]

“Over the last few months, it’s become clear that nothing can be set in stone when it comes to how we release films during this global health crisis, and today that means pausing our release plans for ‘Mulan’ as we assess how we can most effectively bring this film to audiences around the world,” a Disney spokesperson said."

"In addition to the global pandemic, theater closures and production shutdowns, the Burbank, CA made a slew of other calendar changes as well, more specifically, all Avatar and Star Wars movies have been pushed by a year, i.e. Avatar 2 (Dec. 17, 2021 is now Dec. 16, 2022), Avatar 3 (previously Dec. 22, 2023 is now Dec. 20, 2024), Avatar 4 (formerly Dec. 19, 2025 goes to Dec. 18, 2026), Avatar 5 (previously Dec. 27, 2027 goes to Dec. 22, 2028)."

‘Mulan’ Off The Calendar; Disney Also Delays ‘Avatar’ & ‘Star Wars’ Movies By One Year As Studio Adjusts To Pandemic

Disney is no longer releasing Mulan on Aug. 21 and is unsetting the movie for the time being. Oy, just when AMC was looking to turn the lights back on with a big movie in pockets of the country. I understand that the No. 1 industry leader at the global box office isn’t waiting to see where […]

deadline.com

It is too bad that the streaming-only model does not seem to work for studios. I build my home theater in 2008 and haven't upgraded my projector since, but I still prefer it to a movie theater. Given a $30-40 cost to see a movie in the theater for my family of 3, I'd happily pay to stream a first-run movie.

 

[Kevin_W]

He's given up, gone through the stages of grief and just accepted that while he can do his little part, there's nobody that can deal with it at a macro level to improve the scenarios.

It's a very depressing outlook. If we had thought that throughout history, things would be much worse.

Using the vehicle fatality analogy, and Wikipedia (shh, it's my data source and tough )

Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In 1950 there were 33,186 deaths across 458 billion miles driven, 7.24 per million miles. The population was 152 million, 21.79 deaths per 100,000 people.

In 2015 there were 35,485 deaths across 3,095 billion miles driven, 1.15 per million miles. The population was 321 million, 11.06 deaths per 100,000 people.

If we had done nothing from 1950 to 2015, using the 1950 rates and 2015 miles, that would have been 224,259 deaths. People probably would drive less, and probably do individual things to reduce their personal risk some. So, it probably wouldn't be the full size. But, you can bet, if there were 150,000 deaths every year from driving, things would be different. And he's talking about 4 times that number.

The argument isn't "what can one person do to improve the outcome", it's "what can the entire system do to improve the outcome". As a country, we're not doing the things that reduce the spread. We're doing the things that can slow the spread (sort of, in some places more than others). Since, as an individual, slowing is what we can control.

Please, nobody just accept that half a million or more people are going to just die and there's nothing we can do but accept it, so might as well have fun.

On the Disney side, I believe they're doing the things they can to slow the spread while staying open. If they closed, that still wouldn't reduce spread, and they're doing things with the goal of keeping any increased spread impact (vs closed) as low as possible. While I will not be going, I don't condemn anyone that want's to go.

Well said, mmascari.

 

[wdisney9000]

the problem is that this implied "reasonable" position, can be a harmful one,

"Reasonable" is "harmful"? Heaven forbid people be reasonable. We must keep this from the serfs lest they gain literacy and threaten the landed gentry!