Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Casper Gutman]

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, I’m not sure why there’s so much gymnastics being done around the statistics. There’s no need to move goal posts, there isn’t even really a need for goal posts anymore. I’m not sure why people are so concerned about “justifying” what they want to do. WDW is open. If you want to go, then go. If you don’t, then stay home. There’s no need to massage numbers or seek out conspiracy theories to disprove any of the stats that look bad, do what you want to do and don’t worry about it. On the flip side if you don’t want to go then sit it out and don’t worry about the people who do go. There’s nothing we are going to say here that will change whether WDW is open or not and certainly nobody is changing anyone’s mind on whether it should be open. Unless you are a CM or live locally to the parks does it really impact you if people visit WDW or not? I get the desire to have good information, but it’s abundantly clear that no matter what information or data comes out someone is not going to believe it. Let’s just all agree to disagree up front instead of having the same back and forth each day when the FL numbers are released.

You're one of the best posters on this subject Goof, but I don't get this perspective. We all know the decision to go to WDW right now has ramifications for people other then the guest. We all know this is a highly infectious, often deadly disease that we don't fully understand yet. Probability guarantees that people are going to get sick at WDW and carry that illness back to their home community and infect other people who were acting more responsibly. That will certainly happen more than once. So, on a board where people come to plan or celebrate upcoming trips, its not bad to have folks pointing out it might not be the best idea right now.

In addition, the quagmire the US is stuck in at the moment is in large part a result of people sharing false information and attempting to obscure the real suffering that is occurring right now. Countering that misinformation, even in this silly place, isn't worthless, because part of the purpose of that misinformation is to flood the zone with garbage, to make it utterly ubiquitous, so people simply throw their hands up and stop trying to argue against it and let the misinformed and/or disingenuous shape the narrative and ensure even more suffering.

So yeah, arguing here won't do much good. But it might do the tiniest, tiniest bit - countering one bit of nonsense misinformation or convincing one person to put off their trip. And on a selfish level, people going to Disney World right now, when it isn't safe, guarantee that it will be even longer before more responsible people can visit - or see a movie in a theatre, or eat in a restaurant, or go to work without worry. Sometimes you have to scream into the void, and there are less healthy ways to do that right now then by posting onto a theme park message board.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

What is interesting about that number is they didn't make the same mistake as NY, yet still saw the same devastating results.

The one thing that could be skewing that percentage is the relatively low number of deaths there so far compared to NY. They've only had approximately 1/3 of the deaths that NY has had but their population is approximately 60% that of NY's, so it could be viewed as Ohio having a better handle on the situation in the general population or perhaps just not having any cities that come close to the size and density of NYC (which skews NY State's numbers due to its dense population) resulting in relatively less community spread.

Edit: Ohio has actually had ~1/3 of the nursing home/assisted living deaths that NY State has had but only around 9.55% of the total deaths compared to NY State.

 

[chrisvee]

It’s even higher.

4,712 deaths from LT care facilities out of 6,931 total deaths. 68% of total.

I used the 7/10 weekly report and only counted long term living as place of death in order to be conservative given numbers are generally challenged. The OP’s point was they weren’t significant and at least in PA they are.

 

[GoofGoof]

You're one of the best posters on this subject Goof, but I don't get this perspective. We all know the decision to go to WDW right now has ramifications for people other then the guest. We all know this is a highly infectious, often deadly disease that we don't fully understand yet. Probability guarantees that people are going to get sick at WDW and carry that illness back to their home community and infect other people who were acting more responsibly. That will certainly happen more than once. So, on a board where people come to plan or celebrate upcoming trips, its not bad to have folks pointing out it might not be the best idea right now.

In addition, the quagmire the US is stuck in at the moment is in large part a result of people sharing false information and attempting to obscure the real suffering that is occurring right now. Countering that misinformation, even in this silly place, isn't worthless, because part of the purpose of that misinformation is to flood the zone with garbage, to make it utterly ubiquitous, so people simply throw their hands up and stop trying to argue against it and let the misinformed and/or disingenuous shape the narrative and ensure even more suffering.

So yeah, arguing here won't do much good. But it might do the tiniest, tiniest bit - countering one bit of nonsense misinformation or convincing one person to put off their trip. And on a selfish level, people going to Disney World right now, when it isn't safe, guarantee that it will be even longer before more responsible people can visit - or see a movie in a theatre, or eat in a restaurant, or go to work without worry. Sometimes you have to scream into the void, and there are less healthy ways to do that right now then by posting onto a theme park message board.

Fair enough. Its your prerogative to try to continue that fight, like I said I can’t dictate what people talk about. It just seems like no matter what data comes out it’s going to be disputed. For weeks (months) percent positive was all that mattered and rising cases were irrelevant. Then as cases and percent positive spiked there was a pivot to hospitalization and death rates which were not spiking at first. Then hospitalizations started creeping up but every time someone mentioned it there’s a counter post saying that the hospitals are fine and not overrun. The low death rate was still the focus but as the death numbers started climbing up now that‘s because of a lag and not real deaths. Finally now we‘ve circled back to percent positive again because there’s a contention that percent positive is no longer high it’s just some reporting error or conspiracy theory or whatever. At what point do you just throw in the towel? I’ve said all along I wasn’t here to change anyone’s mind but I don’t see the point in continuing to talk about data or statistics when it’s clear people are going to see what they want to see no matter what.

I‘m not suggesting people stop talking about anything. Just stop the daily posts of “oh my god the numbers look so bad, the sky is falling“ followed by the gymnastics to prove the numbers aren’t that bad.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

what's Mummers?

Philly’s New Years Day parade. It’s hard to explain exactly. Various clubs in the city get together and perform in the parade with elaborate themes and fancy costumes. Sorta like mardi Gras in philly. Theres a competition part of the parade that takes place in Center City now but the party is when they get back to South Philly all down 2nd street. The formal parade has been around since the early 1900s but the tradition dates all the way back to colonial times.


View attachment 483693

GoofGoof was being very kind in his explanation on the mummers. It’s really just hindreds and hundreds of kind of drunk guys , dressed in costumes, holding umbrellas that are open up and down as they dance down the street. Its been tradition here since the beginning of time it seems. Just looked it up, 1901 was the first parade. Anyway, don’t believe everyone around here enjoys it. I don’t.

 

[GoofGoof]

GoofGoof was being very kind in his explanation on the mummers. It’s really just hindreds and hundreds of kind of drunk guys , dressed in costumes, holding umbrellas that are open up and down as they dance down the street. Its been tradition here since the beginning of time it seems. Just looked it up, 1901 was the first parade. Anyway, don’t believe everyone around here enjoys it. I don’t.

You don’t enjoy grown men dressed in drag drinking their faces off

You have to go down to 2nd street when the parade comes down to fully appreciate it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

GoofGoof was being very kind in his explanation on the mummers. It’s really just hindreds and hundreds of kind of drunk guys , dressed in costumes, holding umbrellas that are open up and down as they dance down the street. Its been tradition here since the beginning of time it seems. Just looked it up, 1901 was the first parade. Anyway, don’t believe everyone around here enjoys it. I don’t.

I grew up in the Philadelphia area. The annual Mummers parade was something that I should have been proud of and looked forward to every year, since it is a very unique local tradition... but I can't lie, its not something that I ever particularly enjoyed. My one time experiencing it live downtown with my family as a child... was a terrifying experience. Philadelphians can be very, very mean drunks.

 

[chrisvee]

What is interesting about that number is they didn't make the same mistake as NY, yet still saw the same devastating results.

well, there are some public health experts who would say that NY’s numbers weren’t driven by their missteps or being first but rather that the overall challenges of keeping the virus out of congregate living situations and no one having figured it out fully (insufficient testing of staff, period of time before symptoms manifest, visitor policy, etc).

 

[mickeymiss]

I‘m not suggesting people stop talking about anything. Just stop the daily posts of “oh my god the numbers look so bad, the sky is falling“ followed by the gymnastics to prove the numbers aren’t that bad.

Well shoot. That's literally all this thread is I am admittedly ready to try to move on. Debating is tempting but I'm not aware of anyone who has found much middle ground. Disney is open. Nothing is going to be normal but I want it to be less not normal lol. We all obviously want the pandemic to end but I hate to see collateral damage to life as we knew it. I hate all of it.

 

[wdisney9000]

Nothing to see here, move along.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ve-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results.amp

Not one person tested negative? Lol.

Lock your doors, hide your kids.. lol

 

[kong1802]

Nothing to see here, move along.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ve-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results.amp

Not one person tested negative? Lol.

View attachment 483723

Lock your doors, hide your kids.. lol

You are way late to the party.......

What is the statistical impact of that?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Hey guys...Lets do it!

 

[JoeCamel]

Hey guys...Lets do it!

I will if you will

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I will if you will

done.

 

[wannabeBelle]

Nothing to see here, move along.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ve-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results.amp

Not one person tested negative? Lol.

View attachment 483723

Lock your doors, hide your kids.. lol

OMG!!!! Marie

 

[Andrew C]

Nothing to see here, move along.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ve-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results.amp

Not one person tested negative? Lol.

View attachment 483723

Lock your doors, hide your kids.. lol

Remind me to avoid those facilities. Lol.

 

[DCBaker]

News (although early) on the vaccine front -

"Moderna’s potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 produced a “robust” immune response in all 45 patients in its early stage human trial, providing more promising data that the vaccine may give some protection against the coronavirus, according to newly released data published Tuesday evening in the peer-reviewed New England Journal of Medicine."

"All 45 patients produced neutralizing antibodies, which scientists believe are important for gaining protection against the virus. In the trial, each participant received a 25, 100 or 250 microgram dose, with 15 people in each dose group. Participants received two doses of the potential vaccine.

After two vaccinations, the vaccine elicited a “robust” immune response in all participants in all dose cohorts, Moderna said. The company said the levels of neutralizing antibodies in patients in the high dose group were fourfold higher than in recovered Covid-19 patients. "

Moderna shares jump as much as 16% after company says its coronavirus vaccine trial produced 'robust' immune response

Moderna's potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 produced neutralizing antibodies in all 45 patients in its early stage human trial, according to newly released data.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BoarderPhreak]

Hey guys...Lets do it!

Umm... Been doing it since April, at least.

 

[disney fan 13]

Nothing to see here, move along.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ve-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results.amp

Not one person tested negative? Lol.

View attachment 483723

Lock your doors, hide your kids.. lol

This makes up ~3% of testing totals, hardly even a plurality of tests, likewise, many of these are hospitals, who are testing a very different population then a drive through clinic. But yes, on the day with record deaths and Miami Dade’s ICU’s at 108% capacity this should be the focus. What a joke.

EDIT: who is the nefarious force that is rigging these tests? Is it the state government of Florida who has been pretending for weeks that nothing is wrong? Private companies contracting with the state of Florida with some sort of covert political agenda?

 

[hopemax]

Nothing to see here, move along.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ve-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results.amp

Not one person tested negative? Lol.

View attachment 483723

Lock your doors, hide your kids.. lol

Let's check the full stats. 3528 positives in that little spreadsheet, recorded from the start of the pandemic thru 7/11. Because what these numbers are, are cumulative, not daily.

https://floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/state_reports_20200712.pdf

Total positives for the state of FL, same time frame 337,795. So those positives represent 1.04% of the state's positive cases. There are also 2,819,784 negatives for the state recorded in that same time frame. So the potential negatives not recorded would be around 30,000 assuming that those labs have an overall positivity rate equal to the state as a whole. But let's be generous and say they are doing better than average, and there are 100,000 overall negatives not recorded. So new positivity for the state, over the last 4 months from 11% down to 10.3%.

Free everyone! Florida is safe!