Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Andrew C]

Might be the hotspot in the world right now.

And not in the way they are typically called that.

I haven’t looked at LA county recently...

 

[chrisvee]

yes it proves we have a crapton of cases

try looking at it by region

 

[kong1802]

I haven’t looked at LA county recently...

Me either and don't you try to bring me down any further.

 

[chrisvee]

Also, Miami-Dade is reporting a 28% positivity rate for the past 24 hours and has been above the 18% mark for 14 days

thank goodness it’s not accelerating

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It’s not picking up speed. This isn’t a debate. You are posting a lie.

At least you didn’t call me a name like you do most. Again, it’s not a lie.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

The time between 1 million to 2 million and 2 million to 3 million really doesn’t tell us anything if you’re not drilling down further because we tested more during the time period between 2 million and 3 million than between 1 and 2. So of course we would get to 3 million quicker than 2 million no matter what else may be occurring. Now you could potentially drill down and see we still could/would have gotten to 3 million quicker even if testing was equal, due things like an increased positivity rate. But because the original post doesn’t take into account testing increases, changes to positivity rates (either up or down depending on the state), these numbers are essentially worthless and don’t prove anything other we have a crap ton of cases that are still going up.

A very simple arithmetic calculation from the 43 days to the 28 days will tell you it is accelerating. I’m leaving out the first number because, of course testing wasn’t up to par. Still isn’t. But between those 2 weeks it was basically the same amount of tests.

 

[GoofGoof]

The time between 1 million to 2 million and 2 million to 3 million really doesn’t tell us anything if you’re not drilling down further because we tested more during the time period between 2 million and 3 million than between 1 and 2. So of course we would get to 3 million quicker than 2 million no matter what else may be occurring. Now you could potentially drill down and see we still could/would have gotten to 3 million quicker even if testing was equal, due things like an increased positivity rate. But because the original post doesn’t take into account testing increases, changes to positivity rates (either up or down depending on the state), these numbers are essentially worthless and don’t prove anything other we have a crap ton of cases that are still going up.

Stats for FL only:
Last 2 weeks: 120,093 positive on 888,056 tests (percent positive = 13.5%).
Prior 2 weeks: 51;314 positive on 571,700 tests (percent positive = 9.0%)
Testing up 55% but positives up 134%

If we want more granular weekly stats, week ending:
7/9: 65,246 positive on 471,072 tests (13.9%)
7/2: 54,847 positive on 416,984 tests (13.2%)
6/25: 34,606 positive on 315,625 tests (11.0%)
6/18: 16,708 positive on 256,075 tests (6.5%)

So yes testing is going up but it’s pretty hard to say that’s the only driver of the increase in cases. At least in FL over the last month the number of sick people has increased. Hospital capacity seems to confirm this as well.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Stats for FL only:
Last 2 weeks: 120,093 positive on 888,056 tests (percent positive = 13.5%).
Prior 2 weeks: 51;314 positive on 571,700 tests (percent positive = 9.0%)
Testing up 55% but positives up 134%

If we want more granular weekly stats, week ending:
7/9: 65,246 positive on 471,072 tests (13.9%)
7/2: 54,847 positive on 416,984 tests (13.2%)
6/25: 34,606 positive on 315,625 tests (11.0%)
6/18: 16,708 positive on 256,075 tests (6.5%)

So yes testing is going up but it’s pretty hard to say that’s the only driver of the increase in cases. At least in FL over the last month the number of sick people has increased. Hospital capacity seems to confirm this as well.

Thank you for doing the heavy lifting. I read it earlier, then couldn’t find it, then got lazy and sat down for lunch.

 

[hopemax]

A very simple arithmetic calculation from the 43 days to the 28 days will tell you it is accelerating. I’m leaving out the first number because, of course testing wasn’t up to par. Still isn’t. But between those 2 weeks it was basically the same amount of tests.

I'm going to play along, a little.

Florida Rt

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.

rt.live

So it's not actually accelerating at the moment, in terms of the whole state. What it was, was accelerating from mid April (Easter)-start of June. And what we are seeing now is the repercussions of that hidden acceleration. Then the news got out about increased cases, and behavior changed just enough to flatten out the spread a little. So technically, the effective reproduction rate isn't increasing on 7/10/2020. But we were supposed to make sure we kept that in check so the repercussions didn't result in full ICUs. We don't know, as yet, if we succeeded in doing so.

Also, consulting the FAQ from the rt.live site:

If one state has a higher Rt than another state, does that mean the situation is worse in the former vs. the latter?
Not necessarily. To assess the situation, you should take into account both Rt and the absolute number of cases. A state with 1000 new cases a day and Rt = 1.0 is likely in worse shape than a state with 10 new cases per day and Rt = 1.1. The worse-case scenario is Rt >> 1 and many new cases per day.

Florida is failing the "new case" condition, so their overall "state of the state" is not good.

 

[xdan0920]

Stats for FL only:
Last 2 weeks: 120,093 positive on 888,056 tests (percent positive = 13.5%).
Prior 2 weeks: 51;314 positive on 571,700 tests (percent positive = 9.0%)
Testing up 55% but positives up 134%

If we want more granular weekly stats, week ending:
7/9: 65,246 positive on 471,072 tests (13.9%)
7/2: 54,847 positive on 416,984 tests (13.2%)
6/25: 34,606 positive on 315,625 tests (11.0%)
6/18: 16,708 positive on 256,075 tests (6.5%)

So yes testing is going up but it’s pretty hard to say that’s the only driver of the increase in cases. At least in FL over the last month the number of sick people has increased. Hospital capacity seems to confirm this as well.

Bah, if he was only talking about Florida you’d be right. Unfortunately he tried to include the entire country, bc it’s more dramatic. Enjoy your weekend Goof, I considered you a “friend” on here, maybe we can get back to that point.

 

[hopemax]

More from Houston.

As ICU's fill up, more patients are being left in ERs waiting for beds, which is starting to affect ERs ability to accept ambulances.

“All the Hospitals Are Full”: In Houston, Overwhelmed ICUs Leave COVID-19 Patients Waiting in ERs

The busiest hospitals in Houston are increasingly telling emergency responders they cannot safely accept new patients as hundreds of coronavirus patients crowd emergency rooms, and hospitals scramble to open more intensive care space.

www.propublica.org

 

[DCBaker]

Atlanta is rolling back to phase 1 -

"Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is preparing to roll back the city's reopening plans as coronavirus cases surge, a spokesperson told Channel 2 Action News Friday.

The city will go back to Phase 1, in which all residents are ordered to stay home except for essential trips."

Mayor rolls back Atlantaâs reopening plan from Phase 2 to Phase 1

“Georgia reopened in a reckless manner and the people of our city and state are suffering the consequences," Bottoms said.

www.wsbtv.com

 

[chrisvee]

Whoa Friday night news dump. 7k

 

[toolsnspools]

Yeah, i'd buy the more testing argument if the positivity rate wasn't consistently 13% - 16% and hospitalizations and deaths weren't increasing.

Please send the scientific data that shows deaths are increasing.

 

[GoofGoof]

Bah, if he was only talking about Florida you’d be right. Unfortunately he tried to include the entire country, bc it’s more dramatic. Enjoy your weekend Goof, I considered you a “friend” on here, maybe we can get back to that point.

My guess is that if you look at TX, AZ and CA as well there’s probably something similar where testing is up but cases are up more. I only looked at FL because @DCBaker posts the numbers every day and it was real easy to do some quick math. There’s large parts of the country where percent positive is low and most of the increases in cases is related to more testing not more infection. Actually there are large population centers where infections are going down still. That masks some of the hot spots for now at least.

 

[SoCalMort]

Please send the scientific data that shows deaths are increasing.

View attachment 482632

Please note the Note.

 

[toolsnspools]

Please note the Note.

You lost me... Mine was an honest question. I'm a critical thinker by nature, and I like to look at all the evidence. If he has evidence that deaths are increasing, I'd like to see it.

The evidence from the CDC is that:
- Fewer than 200 people, age 24 and under, have died from COVID.
- Fewer than 22,500 people have died that are age 65 and under.
- They also state that only 6% of deaths were from ONLY COVID, and that the other 94% included other factors, like pneumonia.

 

[GoofGoof]

You lost me... Mine was an honest question. I'm a critical thinker by nature, and I like to look at all the evidence. If he has evidence that deaths are increasing, I'd like to see it.

The evidence from the CDC is that:
- Fewer than 200 people, age 24 and under, have died from COVID.
- Fewer than 22,500 people have died that are age 65 and under.
- They also state that only 6% of deaths were from ONLY COVID, and that the other 94% included other factors, like pneumonia.

I’d be curious what the 6% of deaths from only Covid were. I assumed most people died from not being able to breathe due to fluid in the lungs or pneumonia. Is there a way for Covid to kill you directly like stopping your heart or brain from functioning?

 

[toolsnspools]

I’d be curious what the 6% of deaths from only Covid were. I assumed most people died from not being able to breathe due to fluid in the lungs or pneumonia. Is there a way for Covid to kill you directly like stopping your heart or brain from functioning?

All the stats are here. Be sure to click the blue line to open the table -

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

Primary secondary factors are "Influenza and pneumonia ", "Respiratory Failure" (thanks, that's helpful. LOL),"Hypertensive diseases", "Cardiac arrest", and "Diabetes". In the youngest age group, "Obesity" was a large factor.

(Sorry for all the edits. Cut and paste problems...)

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Actors' union says Walt Disney World 'retaliating' over coronavirus testing demand

There is some tension growing between Walt Disney World and the Actors' Equity Association over testing for coronavirus.

www.wesh.com