Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[InnKpr]

Regardless, it's deaths that could have been prevented at this point. We should have done so much better.

While I agree with this completely, you're not looking at it with the legwand77 glasses and giving it the proper legwand77 spin. Those people have simply ceased to be, there's no proof that they're actually "dead".

 

[BrianLo]

They do have that data posted and the ER admission symptoms posted and you can cross ref with covid test admission etc. But more fun to think they are playing a game and the making assumptions.

Please direct me to it.

 

[legwand77]

Please direct me to it.

Florida DOH Covid Dashboard

 

[legwand77]

While I agree with this completely, you're not looking at it with the legwand77 glasses and giving it the proper legwand77 spin. Those people have simply ceased to be, there's no proof that they're actually "dead".

again making stuff up

 

[MisterPenguin]

Ad hominem debates on message boards are boring for everyone

That wasn't ad hominem.

An ad hominem fallacy would be attacking the person rather than their point. For example:

Since you are clearly ignorant of the rules of logic and rhetoric, the point you make is wrong!​

Of course, having an ad hominem attack on you doesn't mean you're right.

 

[BrianLo]

Florida DOH Covid Dashboard

I see what you were referencing, Emerg triage trends. But unfortunately that is not that helpful, especially post cough/cold season.

The actual reason the 3k odd newly diagnosed people were tested are not available. It is all extremely circumstantial supposition from both arguments. Certainly you may be right, but it's the lack of data to support either side that I'm criticizing.

The only good data breakdown is the risk factors people have (i.e. case contact, travel, unknown), but not their symptomatology at time of diagnosis. That's what I am after and unfortunately doesn't seem we will know.

 

[Rimmit]

What they aren't publicly telling us is why people diagnosed with COVID were tested in the first place.

This has lead to the very nice, but likely wrong conclusion that the majority of the currently diagnosed individuals were asymptomatic at time of testing.

I can certainly tell you all - 20-30 year olds don't seek out testing 'just because'. Unless it is the result of contact tracing, the majority of the cases are likely somewhat symptomatic at baseline..

For work I was required to have a test prior to returning my hospital after vacationing in FL. My whole family got tested. Prior to leaving my wife had an exposure and got tested. That is 5 tests for my family with no symptoms right there for the 20-30 year old age group. Our hospital has a “travel committee” whom we had to submit vacation plans to, and based on where we were going what we had to do when we get back. Covid testing on return for anyone leaving our area is a popular recommendation. I am just one of many families, and everyone that leave our area and works for our hospital system with an employee count of almost 4000 has to likely have a Covid Test on return.

They are not asymptomatic, very few people are getting Covid tests for the hell of it, they are getting tested because they are symptomatic (aka sick.) Also while hospitals are currently handling the cases, hospitalizations in Florida are rising. The only statistic that has remained flat is deaths, and as I stated, today was the highest death total in 3 weeks; if that statistic follows trends this will start increasing this week. I really don’t understandhow people continue to minimize this.

The majority of 20-30 year olds that are testing positive are getting tested due to contact tracing from my observation. The popular story about all the friends who went to the bar and 16 got sick, if I remember the article,only 1-2 might have had symptoms. The rest were tested due to having a contact and were positive. I have read several stories like this. While this is anecdotal, and I do agree the majority of 20-30 year olds don’t get tested for fun, all it takes is one in a group of friends to have mild sxs and go get tested and be positive to start a cascade of non social distancing friends to get tested out of curiosity.

20-30 year olds want to know if they have it and in our area they do not require a doctors order to get tested so many just go get tested to see if they are positive. Primarily so they can rest easy knowing they are likely immune (no studies to prove that yet,but most believe that).

**disclaimer*** I am in the 20-30 year old age group.

Yes, the rise in cases is concerning. Unfortunately, as with Covid (and people are so tired of hearing this) any major death rate changes take about 2 weeks to manifest. Whether the 20-30 year old group is going to cause massive spike in the death rate via interaction with the elderly is the big question. Thankfully, most elderly are taking precautions to protect themselves unlike Jan-Mar when this was in its infancy.

For anyone that has been following my posts since page 19 of this thread (has it been that long) knows that I am not even Remotely in the “this is overblown” camp. However, I do believe caution is required when interpreting the recent bump in cases. Should we continue to social distance and wear masks and do whatever we can to mitigate the disease. Definitely, but it will take time for us to see just what this second bump in our first wave really means.

 

[DisneyCane]

this is a perfect example of it

This is kind of a dumb chart. Assuming restaurants are capacity limited in Houston, they can't recover to where they were before the shutdown. It looks to me like generally an increase from when they opened, then a peak on Father's day (hard to see the dates on the chart) and then a drop down to the same level where it was the prior Monday.

From personal observations in Broward County, at the peak days/times, the restaurants seem to be filling the available tables.

Also, being open at 40% revenue is better than being closed at 0% revenue while still having expenses. They won't make a profit but they will bleed less cash per day.

 

[Polkadotdress]

And then there's this trend going on in St Augustine and its affiliated beach town, in which multiple restaurants have closed in the past week due to Covid issues.

LIST: St. Johns County restaurants closing due to coronavirus concerns

Last week, First Coast News told you many Jacksonville restaurants were closing their doors. Now, several St. Johns County eateries are following suit.

www.firstcoastnews.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Some late night reading: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/...why-reopening-isnt-enough-to-save-the-economy

In short a Harvard economist looked at the data on consumer spending and found that:

Typically, Chetty said, recessions are driven by a drop in spending on durable goods, like refrigerators, automobiles and computers. This recession is different. It's driven primarily by a decline in spending at restaurants, hotels, bars and other service establishments that require in-person contact. We kinda already knew that. But what the team's data show is that this decline in spending is mostly in rich ZIP codes, whose businesses saw a 70% drop-off in their revenue. That compares with a 30% drop in revenue for businesses in poorer ZIP codes.

Disney World (and the other parks), being a prime example of spending mostly done by the rich, could be more impacted by the recession. And how could this impact the workers in Orlando?

This 70% fall in revenue at businesses in rich ZIP codes led those businesses to lay off nearly 70% of their employees. These employees are mostly low-wage workers. Businesses in poorer ZIP codes laid off about 30% of their employees. The bottom line, Chetty said in his presentation, is that "reductions in spending by the rich have led to loss in jobs mostly for low-income individuals working in affluent areas."

Grim news... especially when Universal has already started layoffs.

"Well", you say. "I'm sure the FL covid numbers will settle down and Disney will finally open and people will come back." The data says that reopening efforts haven't made a big impact:

Finally, there are state-permitted reopenings: They don't seem to boost the economy either. Chetty and his team compare, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota allowed reopening weeks before Wisconsin, but if you look at spending patterns in both states, Minnesota did not see any boost compared with Wisconsin after it reopened. "The fundamental reason that people seem to be spending less is not because of state-imposed restrictions," Chetty said. "It's because high-income folks are able to work remotely, are choosing to self-isolate and are being cautious given health concerns. And unless you fundamentally address that concern, I think there's limited capacity to restart the economy."

The conclusion?

Chetty and his team conclude that the traditional tools of economic policy — tax cuts and spending increases to boost demand — won't save the army of the unemployed. Instead, they say we need public health efforts to restore safety and convince consumers that it's OK to start going out again. Until then, they argue, we need to extend unemployment benefits and provide assistance to help low-income workers who will continue to struggle in the pandemic economy.

I think it's likely that Orlando is in for a rough time.

So far I have only had time to skim the actual study so I don't want to give an opinion on it. I just wanted to comment once again on how journalism is dead. A quality journalist would have interviewed the author of the study to get insight and translation of the study for consumption by non-economists. Instead, this "journalist" just quoted and paraphrased a few things out of an 83 page study to get clicks and page views.

Basically, he plagiarized the work of the study's authors for personal gain. If I wrote that as an essay in college I would have gotten a D-.

 

[willtravel]

Anthony Fauci was speaking during a House Committee on Energy and Commerce on the Trump administration's response to the pandemic on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Something looks strange in this picture. I hope they are 6 ft apart.

 

[Tom P.]

Anthony Fauci was speaking during a House Committee on Energy and Commerce on the Trump administration's response to the pandemic on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Something looks strange in this picture. I hope they are 6 ft apart.

Fauci is literally holding his mask in his hand in that picture. He, like everyone else at the hearing, took it off to speak and then put it back on when not speaking. And, yes, they were all seated 6 feet apart as well. Plus each person had hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes at their location and a disposable cover over their microphones.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

So far I have only had time to skim the actual study so I don't want to give an opinion on it. I just wanted to comment once again on how journalism is dead. A quality journalist would have interviewed the author of the study to get insight and translation of the study for consumption by non-economists. Instead, this "journalist" just quoted and paraphrased a few things out of an 83 page study to get clicks and page views.

Basically, he plagiarized the work of the study's authors for personal gain. If I wrote that as an essay in college I would have gotten a D-.

That's not how plagiarism works. Plagiarism is a serious accusation and you should understand what it means before you accuse anyone else.

Anthony Fauci was speaking during a House Committee on Energy and Commerce on the Trump administration's response to the pandemic on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Something looks strange in this picture. I hope they are 6 ft apart.

He, like everyone else in the hearing, took his mask off only to speak into the microphone so people could hear him. He actually looked uncomfortable at times chomping at the bit to finish the question and put his mask back on.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Do you just try and spin every possible graph to its opposite meaning? TX had almost 5500 cases with 12 straight days of hospitalization increases, of course people are going to dial it back a bit.

Yes.. he does. As I said in another thread.. sometimes it feels like my head is on a lazysusan. Look it up young ones.

 

[Prince-1]

Anthony Fauci was speaking during a House Committee on Energy and Commerce on the Trump administration's response to the pandemic on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Something looks strange in this picture. I hope they are 6 ft apart.

Man all you need to do was just a LITTLE research on the google to get your answer (which a few have already gave you) but hey why bother lol!

 

[wdwmagic]

Anthony Fauci was speaking during a House Committee on Energy and Commerce on the Trump administration's response to the pandemic on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Something looks strange in this picture. I hope they are 6 ft apart.

Here is a straight on view where you can see the setup

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Also, being open at 40% revenue is better than being closed at 0% revenue while still having expenses. They won't make a profit but they will bleed less cash per day.

As was reported over and over, even at 50% business, most won’t last 4-6 months. There are numerous interviews with business owners saying the same thing. That’s why when the damn business loans came through it was a help for the ones that got them. They could stay afloat while being closed. If there was another loan approved, which looks doubtful, the ones that are open would not be able to apply so they are stuck. One business owner even said he would rather have 0 business for 6 months with help from the government, then 50% business now. He can’t survive on that.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Looking at that graph in more detail, the big spike was Sunday, wonder if there was a special holidaythat would cause people to go out to eat, and then the drop was to Monday night, not a big night to eat out I imagine, especially since a bunch ate out the day before, but did drop 10% from the previous Monday, that is the dip you see before the increase to Father's Day

I will take no context tweeted graphs for $100 Alex.

You now think people went out on Sunday to eat and then promptly got tested for something that has an incubation period longer than a few hours?

 

[willtravel]

Man all you need to do was just a LITTLE research on the google to get your answer (which a few have already gave you) but hey why bother lol!

Man all you need to do was just a LITTLE research on the google to get your answer (which a few have already gave you) but hey why bother lol!

If you will note on my post I said I HOPE THEY ARE 6FT APART. and now i see they are. GEEEEEEZZZZZZ

 

[kong1802]

Here is a straight on view where you can see the setup

What is this weird fascination that people have with trying to take down the world's leading expert on this?

Are people about to start trying to pick apart his online posting history? His eating habits?

Can we stick to the subject matter of let's say Pandemic?