It... increased
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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I know a CM who went to springs today and they were checking for masks at the car (and temp). He said once they entered disney springs people were pulling off their masks and not one CM was enforcing it. My husband feels INCREDIBLY unsafe knowing that Disney is not holding up their end of the bargain.
Oh boy is this curve looking flattened
The problem with this is the lagging statistics, it takes 1-2 weeks after a person is infected to be tested for Covid, 2-3 post infection weeks for them to get hospitalized, and 3-4 weeks for them to die.
On that front, Florida experiences it’s highest death count in three weeks today. If trends continue in the sun belt, it’s going to be a bloodbath by the 4th of July and Florida will have to stay at home again, for 2-3 months. Any thing you do to limit spread takes just as long to affect the statistics, unfortunately it’s just the math of this thing. I’m not hopeful.
The problem with this is the lagging statistics, it takes 1-2 weeks after a person is infected to be tested for Covid, 2-3 post infection weeks for them to get hospitalized, and 3-4 weeks for them to die.
On that front, Florida experiences it’s highest death count in three weeks today. If trends continue in the sun belt, it’s going to be a bloodbath by the 4th of July and Florida will have to stay at home again, for 2-3 months. Any thing you do to limit spread takes just as long to affect the statistics, unfortunately it’s just the math of this thing. I’m not hopeful.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
I’ve viewed CM’s reinforcing. There was one last week I noted that was dressed in more upper level clothes specifically walking outside WoD looking for people not wearing correctly.
I expect the parks to actually be a little easier to manage. There’s CM’s outside of all attractions already that should be able to keep an eye out. Springs a little more difficult due to its layout and mall feel.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
As he should. Families will be going back to Disney with the expectation that the new rules will be enforced in order to keep them safe and I don’t think they will. Either they will start once people start contracting the virus at Disney or the media starts to shine a spotlight on their lack of enforcement. Or they will close again.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
it is important to note that the median age is now around 34. These individuals are much less likely to die. Much much less. But if those getting it today give it to the elderly, then we could have some major issues with death.
Chip Chipperson
Well-Known Member
Keep in mind that a median age of 34 means half of the cases are people older than that. It's just the midpoint of the data set.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Yep. I’m aware. And half are younger.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
that isn’t what I was responding to. I was responding to post about death. And severe complications are very rare as well. Possible. But rare.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I know it’s been pointed out by others, but median doesn’t mean that everyone in 34 or younger. There’s still a large number of people over 34 and a number of people over 65 who are getting infected. If we have learned anything it’s that the virus doesn’t discriminate. So even if the 5% nationwide death rate drops to 2.5% because the median age is going down, if the number of cases doubles the same number of people still die. My point is that median age dropping doesn’t guarantee that the death count will be much lower. It’s only one factor.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
yowser. Someone pointed out that he expects mass death in Florida in a few weeks due to all these new cases. My only point was that you will not see mass deaths from younger people. And they are contributing significantly to this case increase. Therefore, his expectation is unlikely IMO. I then pointed to my concern about younger people passing it onto the elderly. Is this really so controversial???
GoofGoof
Premium Member
My comment was in reply to your post, but really more of a general observation. I’ve seen multiple posts in the last few days with the general theme that because the median age is lower now that it’s no big deal that cases are increasing, or it’s just young people getting sick and they don’t get seriously ill. Less death and serious illness is always welcome but I don’t think we should just dismiss any increase in cases as no big deal because the median age has dropped. As you say, the young people can infect elderly relatives or co-workers and not all young people are perfectly fine. I don’t expect mass death in FL in the next few weeks, but the death total is almost certain to go up faster if the number of cases keeps increasing even if the median age stays low.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
If you turn the computer screen, its kind of flat.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Maybe try putting the dates out of order
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
I think they tried that alreadyMaybe try putting the dates out of order
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Regardless, it's deaths that could have been prevented at this point. We should have done so much better.
Rider
Well-Known Member
Some late night reading: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/...why-reopening-isnt-enough-to-save-the-economy
In short a Harvard economist looked at the data on consumer spending and found that:
Typically, Chetty said, recessions are driven by a drop in spending on durable goods, like refrigerators, automobiles and computers. This recession is different. It's driven primarily by a decline in spending at restaurants, hotels, bars and other service establishments that require in-person contact. We kinda already knew that. But what the team's data show is that this decline in spending is mostly in rich ZIP codes, whose businesses saw a 70% drop-off in their revenue. That compares with a 30% drop in revenue for businesses in poorer ZIP codes.
Disney World (and the other parks), being a prime example of spending mostly done by the rich, could be more impacted by the recession. And how could this impact the workers in Orlando?
This 70% fall in revenue at businesses in rich ZIP codes led those businesses to lay off nearly 70% of their employees. These employees are mostly low-wage workers. Businesses in poorer ZIP codes laid off about 30% of their employees. The bottom line, Chetty said in his presentation, is that "reductions in spending by the rich have led to loss in jobs mostly for low-income individuals working in affluent areas."
Grim news... especially when Universal has already started layoffs.
"Well", you say. "I'm sure the FL covid numbers will settle down and Disney will finally open and people will come back." The data says that reopening efforts haven't made a big impact:
Finally, there are state-permitted reopenings: They don't seem to boost the economy either. Chetty and his team compare, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota allowed reopening weeks before Wisconsin, but if you look at spending patterns in both states, Minnesota did not see any boost compared with Wisconsin after it reopened. "The fundamental reason that people seem to be spending less is not because of state-imposed restrictions," Chetty said. "It's because high-income folks are able to work remotely, are choosing to self-isolate and are being cautious given health concerns. And unless you fundamentally address that concern, I think there's limited capacity to restart the economy."
The conclusion?
Chetty and his team conclude that the traditional tools of economic policy — tax cuts and spending increases to boost demand — won't save the army of the unemployed. Instead, they say we need public health efforts to restore safety and convince consumers that it's OK to start going out again. Until then, they argue, we need to extend unemployment benefits and provide assistance to help low-income workers who will continue to struggle in the pandemic economy.
I think it's likely that Orlando is in for a rough time.
In short a Harvard economist looked at the data on consumer spending and found that:
Typically, Chetty said, recessions are driven by a drop in spending on durable goods, like refrigerators, automobiles and computers. This recession is different. It's driven primarily by a decline in spending at restaurants, hotels, bars and other service establishments that require in-person contact. We kinda already knew that. But what the team's data show is that this decline in spending is mostly in rich ZIP codes, whose businesses saw a 70% drop-off in their revenue. That compares with a 30% drop in revenue for businesses in poorer ZIP codes.
Disney World (and the other parks), being a prime example of spending mostly done by the rich, could be more impacted by the recession. And how could this impact the workers in Orlando?
This 70% fall in revenue at businesses in rich ZIP codes led those businesses to lay off nearly 70% of their employees. These employees are mostly low-wage workers. Businesses in poorer ZIP codes laid off about 30% of their employees. The bottom line, Chetty said in his presentation, is that "reductions in spending by the rich have led to loss in jobs mostly for low-income individuals working in affluent areas."
Grim news... especially when Universal has already started layoffs.
"Well", you say. "I'm sure the FL covid numbers will settle down and Disney will finally open and people will come back." The data says that reopening efforts haven't made a big impact:
Finally, there are state-permitted reopenings: They don't seem to boost the economy either. Chetty and his team compare, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota allowed reopening weeks before Wisconsin, but if you look at spending patterns in both states, Minnesota did not see any boost compared with Wisconsin after it reopened. "The fundamental reason that people seem to be spending less is not because of state-imposed restrictions," Chetty said. "It's because high-income folks are able to work remotely, are choosing to self-isolate and are being cautious given health concerns. And unless you fundamentally address that concern, I think there's limited capacity to restart the economy."
The conclusion?
Chetty and his team conclude that the traditional tools of economic policy — tax cuts and spending increases to boost demand — won't save the army of the unemployed. Instead, they say we need public health efforts to restore safety and convince consumers that it's OK to start going out again. Until then, they argue, we need to extend unemployment benefits and provide assistance to help low-income workers who will continue to struggle in the pandemic economy.
I think it's likely that Orlando is in for a rough time.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Who woulda thunk it.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
this is a perfect example of it
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