Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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legwand77

Well-Known Member
Oh boy is this curve looking flattened

View attachment 478834
The problem with this is the lagging statistics, it takes 1-2 weeks after a person is infected to be tested for Covid, 2-3 post infection weeks for them to get hospitalized, and 3-4 weeks for them to die.

On that front, Florida experiences it’s highest death count in three weeks today. If trends continue in the sun belt, it’s going to be a bloodbath by the 4th of July and Florida will have to stay at home again, for 2-3 months. Any thing you do to limit spread takes just as long to affect the statistics, unfortunately it’s just the math of this thing. I’m not hopeful.
Cute but like others have said the majority of these cases are not ending up in the hospital, sure they might but nothing is showing that now. regardless 7 day rolling average is flat, and actually might have trended down

Now if it jumps like it did b/t 6/13 and 6/31 you have a point, but remember those cases were also mostly elderly and sick at that time and the vast majority were all hospitalized and most were in one city. Again context, doesn't see to mean that much to some here.

As far as you timeline, most of the new cases are asymptomatic, what does that mean, they don't know they had it or they get a mild sickness for 1-3 days and are fine. You do realize not every case means hospitalization or death.
 
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
this is a perfect example of it


Looking at that graph in more detail, the big spike was Sunday, wonder if there was a special holidaythat would cause people to go out to eat, and then the drop was to Monday night, not a big night to eat out I imagine, especially since a bunch ate out the day before, but did drop 10% from the previous Monday, that is the dip you see before the increase to Father's Day

I will take no context tweeted graphs for $100 Alex.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Do you just try and spin every possible graph to its opposite meaning? TX had almost 5500 cases with 12 straight days of hospitalization increases, of course people are going to dial it back a bit.
No see my next post once I found the actual data of the graph since it's y axis was unlabeled, could have meant anything was my point. BTW the graph has nothing to do with cases and hospitalizations.
 

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Looking at that graph in more detail, the big spike was Sunday, wonder if there was a special holidaythat would cause people to go out to eat, and then the drop was to Monday night, not a big night to eat out I imagine, especially since a bunch ate out the day before, but did drop 10% from the previous Monday, that is the dip you see before the increase to Father's Day

I will take no context tweeted graphs for $100 Alex.
As someone who has worked in a restaurant and continues to work in the restaurant industry, that's not a typical "Monday lull after a holiday" number. It's still trending down from two weeks ago. Though you are correct in the sharp uptick is likely from Father's Day.
 
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BrianLo

Well-Known Member
The other narrative I really enjoy is that the majority of new diagnosis are asymptomatic. States have played a beautiful game - the median age is down. Younger people are thought to be more commonly asymptomatic. What they aren't publicly telling us is why people diagnosed with COVID were tested in the first place. The data certainly exists (fever, cough/congestion, whatever). The lab reqs are sent with some clinical information.

This has lead to the very nice, but likely wrong conclusion that the majority of the currently diagnosed individuals were asymptomatic at time of testing.

I can certainly tell you all - 20-30 year olds don't seek out testing 'just because'. Unless it is the result of contact tracing, the majority of the cases are likely somewhat symptomatic at baseline.

Which frankly is a good thing. Thousands of people being picked up by happenstance would mean the Sunbelt states have unbelievable horrid community spread.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
As far as you timeline, most of the new cases are asymptomatic, what does that mean, they don't know they had it or they get a mild sickness for 1-3 days and are fine. You do realize not every case means hospitalization or death.

They are not asymptomatic, very few people are getting Covid tests for the hell of it, they are getting tested because they are symptomatic (aka sick.) Also while hospitals are currently handling the cases, hospitalizations in Florida are rising. The only statistic that has remained flat is deaths, and as I stated, today was the highest death total in 3 weeks; if that statistic follows trends this will start increasing this week. I really don’t understandhow people continue to minimize this.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Young people are getting tested because, some have to get tested to go back to work, some get tested because someone at work or family tested positive so everyone at work had to get tested (this is a bunch, know many that this happened to), some are now traveling to see family and get tested to make sure they don't infect grandma etc., or go to hospital for non Covid related reasons and get tested There are many other reason other than your assumption as you put it " for the hell of it."
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Do you just try and spin every possible graph to its opposite meaning? TX had almost 5500 cases with 12 straight days of hospitalization increases, of course people are going to dial it back a bit.

Since the Opentable graph was from Houston , here is the current houston hospital report, plenty of rooms available. Yes Covid patients have gone up but not quite a dire issue.

Firefox_Screenshot_2020-06-24T04-47-02.946Z.png
 

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
Since the Opentable graph was from Houston , here is the current houston hospital report, plenty of rooms available. Yes Covid patients have gone up but not quite a dire issue.

View attachment 478846
They're totally not worried

 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
The other narrative I really enjoy is that the majority of new diagnosis are asymptomatic. States have played a beautiful game - the median age is down. Younger people are thought to be more commonly asymptomatic. What they aren't publicly telling us is why people diagnosed with COVID were tested in the first place. The data certainly exists (fever, cough/congestion, whatever). The lab reqs are sent with some clinical information.

This has lead to the very nice, but likely wrong conclusion that the majority of the currently diagnosed individuals were asymptomatic at time of testing.

I can certainly tell you all - 20-30 year olds don't seek out testing 'just because'. Unless it is the result of contact tracing, the majority of the cases are likely somewhat symptomatic at baseline.

Which frankly is a good thing. Thousands of people being picked up by happenstance would mean the Sunbelt states have unbelievable horrid community spread.
They do have that data posted and the ER admission symptoms posted and you can cross ref with covid test admission etc. But more fun to think they are playing a game and the making assumptions.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
They're totally not worried


That is smart planning for just in case, would expect any hospital system to do that. Especially a childrens hospital as in doesn't affect children much at all. They have a surge plan ready and will activate as needed. That is keeping an eye on it, like I have been saying.

 
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