Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[kong1802]

The new spin is, "Only sick folks are being tested", that's why the percent positive is going up.

I was a big fan of the percent positive of total tests. Not anymore... The only benchmark is daily cases. When that starts going down then we will know the situation is getting better in my opinion.

Before it was "Obviously when more tests are done the percent positive will go down as only sick people were getting tests in the beginning". And now they've flipped the script? Would like to say I'm surprised.......

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

About a month ago there seemed to be this thought being thrown out there, "Percent positives are below 5%, stop worrying" (might not have been 5, I actually think they were touting a smaller number). And now that they've doubled so rapidly, no one cares about percent positives. It's now "how many people are on a ventilator", or something similar....Keeps shifting, its hard to keep up with the "optimists" on this one.

I looked up “optimist” in the dictionary and didn’t see “Disney obsessed deniers with no self control” listed as a synonym?

The goal posts do move a lot. The biggest problem is we are running out of stats to switch to. I hope that this current period is just a blip and not a longer term trend, but I keep saying that and it doesn’t seem to want to reverse itself.

The unknown tends to make field goals a low percentage concept in all scenarios. Like a 52 yarder in a crosswind

 

[GoofGoof]

The new spin is, "Only sick folks are being tested", that's why the percent positive is going up.

I was a big fan of the percent positive of total tests. Not anymore... The only benchmark is daily cases. When that starts going down then we will know the situation is getting better in my opinion.

The number of tests is pretty flat, not really down. When testing stays constant and positives go up the percent positive goes up. It’s possible that a higher percent positive can mean that you aren’t doing enough testing (doesn’t seem to be the case here). It’s also possible that overall infection is just up. It’s pretty easy to see that some of the most problematic things to re-open are also things that tend to attract younger people on average. It’s not surprising the median age is dropping as well. It’s not time to panic yet, but people need to stop denying there’s an issue and act responsibly. It’s very possible to have the economy mostly open and still practice good social distancing. People just need to buy in.

 

[Horizons '83]

The new spin is, "Only sick folks are being tested", that's why the percent positive is going up.

I was a big fan of the percent positive of total tests. Not anymore... The only benchmark is daily cases. When that starts going down then we will know the situation is getting better in my opinion.

I'd argue that hospitalizations and deaths are a more important number then daily cases. Cases of course are skyrocketing, but who is getting infected is equally important to look at (younger Americans).

 

[legwand77]

The overall rate is 43% as of June 19. You can look at just Florida if you want, but the original context was overall deaths, not just in Florida.

And you're again misstating the information. Their estimate excluding NY is 51.5%, which is not, "in the 60% range."

So far I'd say only 1/3 of the points you've made on this stand.

Ah yes, you are correct 43% is as of June 19th, thanks for the correction. Still as you state "It's certainly disproportionate to the population, though."

One reason NY is thrown out for 51% , is they only report nursing home deaths if they actually are declared deaths in a nursing home, if nursing home residents are transported from the nursing homes and then die (as in the hospital) they are not a nursing home death.

 

[kong1802]

I'd argue that hospitalizations and deaths are a more important number then daily cases. Cases of course are skyrocketing, but who is getting infected is equally important to look at (younger Americans).

They are important stats. However they are on a lag. Number of cases increasing can push those other stats up. We just wont see the effects until after the fact. I'm hoping that the increased positivity and number of cases however do not push those up. We shall see...

In the meantime, people just need to keep treating this seriously.

 

[YodaMan]

I'd argue that hospitalizations and deaths are a more important number then daily cases. Cases of course are skyrocketing, but who is getting infected is equally important to look at (younger Americans).

We still have so many unanswered questions about Covid-19. Some of the asymptomatic and younger cases still have complications that arise months after the fact or cause lasting internal damage. Cases should not be rising this rapidly, period. People thinking “oh, as long as those catching it don’t get hospitalized, we’re all fine” are the problem and why we have so many people disobeying mandates and ignoring warnings.

 

[Horizons '83]

We still have so many unanswered questions about Covid-19. Some of the asymptomatic and younger cases still have complications that arise months after the fact or cause lasting internal damage. Cases should not be rising this rapidly, period. People thinking “oh, as long as those catching it don’t get hospitalized, we’re all fine” are the problem and why we have so many people disobeying mandates and ignoring warnings.

This isn't a prove it comment, but do you have a link to the articles, i'd like to read about those longer term effects they are seeing.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'd argue that hospitalizations and deaths are a more important number then daily cases. Cases of course are skyrocketing, but who is getting infected is equally important to look at (younger Americans).

It’s not only younger people getting sick. The median age is much lower than it was but that doesn’t mean everyone is 22 and otherwise healthy. The other concern is that younger people tend to have less symptoms so are more likely to be asymptomatic spreaders. Hopefully it’s not the case but as these asympomatic people go to work or a grocery store or the gym they could infect older and less healthy people. It may take a few weeks or a month before we see the exponential spread. Hopefully that’s not the case and it’s just a bunch of kids blowing off steam at bars getting each other sick the old fashioned way. If so, wait until colleges go back in the fall.

 

[Calmdownnow]

This isn't a prove it comment, but do you have a link to the articles, i'd like to read about those longer term effects they are seeing.

COVID-19 found to trigger diabetes in healthy people

COVID-19 could trigger the onset of diabetes in people who were healthy before they became infected, researchers have said.

www.diabetes.co.uk

Revealed: Scars of Covid-19 could last for life as doctors warn of long-term damage to health

Healthy people, who were in their 40s and 50s when the virus struck, are now facing anxiety, chronic fatigue and disability for years

www.telegraph.co.uk

How Covid-19 can damage the brain

Some scientists suspect that Covid-19 causes respiratory failure and death not through damage to the lungs, but the brain – and other symptoms include headaches, strokes and seizures.

www.bbc.com

 

[GoofGoof]

This isn't a prove it comment, but do you have a link to the articles, i'd like to read about those longer term effects they are seeing.

This is totally anecdotal, but I have a friend who is a NYC cop. He got sick with Covid back in March but his wife and kid never had symptoms and were never tested. He recovered fine and went back to work. In May his wife collapsed in their house and was rushed to the ER. It turned out she had a blood clot that caused her to pass out. Luckily not a stroke. She tested negative for current Covid but positive for anti-bodies. They think she had Covid back in March when her husband was sick. No way to know for sure exactly when she had it, but the doctors said the blood clotting is something they are seeing more and more with Covid, especially in younger patients and often not with any other symptoms. Again, anecdotal and she’s in her 30s so maybe that’s not considered young. Either way it’s a little frightening.

 

[ppete1975]

They do need to enforce it. The CMs and the union were promised that guests and workers would be in masks for their safety when they returned to work. Just because people don’t feel like it isn‘t a good reason to just give up on it.

People do need to grow up, but they live in their own social media bubbles where everyone is talking about resisting masks and all the justifications why they aren’t needed. Look around the various threads here. That’s why you get these situations where someone gets spit on. I don’t really think WDW should stay closed but I also don’t want to see CMs put in that situation either. If the resistance to following the rules is great enough (I hope it won’t be) then they may need to consider further restrictions or just closing.

im hoping its peer pressure, if everyone you see is wearing them and if someone takes theirs off they are swiftly reminded that by going on private property they agreed to wear it, then hopefully you will have everyone follow. Adults are no different than children. We see what we can get away with. Let me not cover my nose.... nobody said anything... let me take it off... nobody said anything....im not going to wear it now. The person next to him sees him not wearing his and nobody cares, then why should he.
What we need is better peer pressure, people need to speak up if someone is in your 6 foot bubble, or if you see someone not wearing a mask and everyone else is, politely remind them. People in general dont like peer pressure and will fall in line.

 

[GoofGoof]

im hoping its peer pressure, if everyone you see is wearing them and if someone takes theirs off they are swiftly reminded that by going on private property they agreed to wear it, then hopefully you will have everyone follow. Adults are no different than children. We see what we can get away with. Let me not cover my nose.... nobody said anything... let me take it off... nobody said anything....im not going to wear it now. The person next to him sees him not wearing his and nobody cares, then why should he.
What we need is better peer pressure, people need to speak up if someone is in your 6 foot bubble, or if you see someone not wearing a mask and everyone else is, politely remind them. People in general dont like peer pressure and will fall in line.

Agreed. Just be polite about it. We don’t need fist fights between guests over it. Hopefully the mask “protest people” just stay home. Let the people who are willing to follow the rules enjoy their time.

 

[legwand77]

COVID-19 found to trigger diabetes in healthy people

COVID-19 could trigger the onset of diabetes in people who were healthy before they became infected, researchers have said.

www.diabetes.co.uk

Revealed: Scars of Covid-19 could last for life as doctors warn of long-term damage to health

Healthy people, who were in their 40s and 50s when the virus struck, are now facing anxiety, chronic fatigue and disability for years

www.telegraph.co.uk

How Covid-19 can damage the brain

Some scientists suspect that Covid-19 causes respiratory failure and death not through damage to the lungs, but the brain – and other symptoms include headaches, strokes and seizures.

www.bbc.com

Lots of ifs, mays and could, but something to keep an eye on of course. Basically saying if you have severe infection or disease you might have a long lasting effect much like other diseases.

Covid-19 may be left with damaged and scarred lung tissue, if it follows patterns of similar diseases.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Lots of ifs, mays and could, but something to keep an eye on of course. Basically saying if you have severe infection or disease you might have a long lasting effect much like other diseases.

Except you keep telling us how great it is that more young people are getting sick and nothing will happen to them.

 

[GoofGoof]

Except you keep telling us how great it is that more young people are getting sick and nothing will happen to them.

What would have been great would have been if the virus really didn’t do well in the heat and humidity and went away in the summer or just vanished completely like SARS. I kept pulling for those things to happen but it turns out the virus doesn’t care what I want

 

[GoofGoof]

Lots of ifs, mays and could, but something to keep an eye on of course. Basically saying if you have severe infection or disease you might have a long lasting effect much like other diseases.

The telegraph article is terrifying. Hopefully those are a lot of one off observations and not across the board problems. Nobody wants to see polio-like long term damage from this virus.

 

[Calmdownnow]

Basically saying if you have severe infection or disease you might have a long lasting effect much like other diseases.

It's a bit more worrying than that. I think some of these medics are saying that if you have a mild form, you may also have longer-term health issues, or even that because the severity of the disease is being measured as primarily respiratory, the blood and brain impacts in mild cases may not yet be hitting public attention, with longer tern consequences for the health of the public at large. And a misjudged public perception that this only has consequences for the old and the people who are already suffering ill-health.

 

[Chi84]

im hoping its peer pressure, if everyone you see is wearing them and if someone takes theirs off they are swiftly reminded that by going on private property they agreed to wear it, then hopefully you will have everyone follow. Adults are no different than children. We see what we can get away with. Let me not cover my nose.... nobody said anything... let me take it off... nobody said anything....im not going to wear it now. The person next to him sees him not wearing his and nobody cares, then why should he.
What we need is better peer pressure, people need to speak up if someone is in your 6 foot bubble, or if you see someone not wearing a mask and everyone else is, politely remind them. People in general dont like peer pressure and will fall in line.

People “reminding” other people to put on their mask is likely Disney’s nightmare scenario. Nobody “forgets” to wear a mask. Nothing good will come from that. Step away and get a cast member.

 

[legwand77]

Except you keep telling us how great it is that more young people are getting sick and nothing will happen to them.

No that is not what I am saying, smh. The vast majority of younger people are not getting sick with the virus, they are testing positive and if they are getting sick it is mild, yes some are getting hospitalized but very few and even less actually dying. This long lasting disease concerns are not proven at all. Could happen and we could all get brain cancer from mobile phones, probably not, but that may happen.