Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[easyrowrdw]

Another poster explained it already, TLDR version is a large majority of deaths are nursing home and in LTC facilities.

Yes, and around half of all Covid deaths to date are in nursing homes and LTC facilitities. One source is today's press conference from Desnatis. He led the press conference with that stat.

Here is a graphic too from cdc/state info as of June 19th.

The source you cite indicates 43%. https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70 I'd say that's close to around half, but nowhere near a large majority.

It's certainly disproportionate to the population, though.

 

[legwand77]

To add perspective

Currently there are 108 people in the Florida health system in the hospital today for Covid and only 3 on a ventilator, population of Florida is 20 Million or so. Sure I wish they weren't, and hope they get well soon and a very large majority will but people get sick and yes some die, but it is a very small number.

And a interesting stat, 20 percent of Orlando Health’s COVID patients were in the hospital for reasons completely unrelated to COVID-19 such as a broken leg or a gunshot wound.

Orlando Sentinel

www.orlandosentinel.com

ETA I think there is an error in the article and the 108 is Orlando Health system and not Florida

 

[tallica]

Found this interesting.
The CDC is also now combining PCR & Antibody tests, so the “new cases” could be some of the millions of cases from 4 months ago. NPR called them out on it.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

It looks like there's a chance we can all get tax credits for trips taken to WDW in 2020 and 2021 if this bill passes. My wife and I went in February and are pushing our November trip back to 2021, so I certainly wouldn't mind getting a tax credit our Annual passes and airfare. No credit for DVC dues, though.

This senator wants to give you a big tax credit to take a vacation

Sen. Martha McSally has pitched a new bill that would give Americans a hefty financial incentive to take a vacation and revive the tourism industry that's been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

www.foxnews.com

 

[legwand77]

The source you cite indicates 43%. https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70 I'd say that's close to around half, but nowhere near a large majority.

It's certainly disproportionate to the population, though.

43% percent was from when the article was first written in May, look at the updated June 19th numbers in the graphic shared from that page. Florida is right at 50%. Either way like you said my point still stands. If NY reported their data correctly it would be in the 60% range.

 

[GoofGoof]

That is exactly why they will not enforce it very much, maybe less now and in any real sense in my opinion don't need to enforce it that much, especially with all the other things they are doing.

They do need to enforce it. The CMs and the union were promised that guests and workers would be in masks for their safety when they returned to work. Just because people don’t feel like it isn‘t a good reason to just give up on it.

people need to grow up and be adults... i dont want to wear a mask waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. The solution is have your normal security and cast members enforce the policy, and if people just wont do it, escort them out. If everyone is wearing them, people will wear them. Once people see that person over there not wearing them they will stop and you have a domino effect. Remember we thought smoking was going to be an issue and it really wasnt.
Everyone keeps saying shut it down till it gets better.... youre assuming it will. There might not be a vaccine coming, we might be about to restart the whole thing if not worse. Do you really think your local bar, restaurant or theme park can survive that. Its time for people to act as adults social distance, wear masks wash your hands... its not hard... but anywhere i go.. i see none of it.
btw goofgoof, this was not directed at you but fit some of the things that i wanted to reply to. I think youre swell.

People do need to grow up, but they live in their own social media bubbles where everyone is talking about resisting masks and all the justifications why they aren’t needed. Look around the various threads here. That’s why you get these situations where someone gets spit on. I don’t really think WDW should stay closed but I also don’t want to see CMs put in that situation either. If the resistance to following the rules is great enough (I hope it won’t be) then they may need to consider further restrictions or just closing.

 

[legwand77]

Found this interesting.
The CDC is also now combining PCR & Antibody tests, so the “new cases” could be some of the millions of cases from 4 months ago. NPR called them out on it.

Article was from a month ago and the Florida DOH dashboard breaks out Serolgoy test reports from the PCR tests

 

[GoofGoof]

Found this interesting.
The CDC is also now combining PCR & Antibody tests, so the “new cases” could be some of the millions of cases from 4 months ago. NPR called them out on it.

That means percent positive for actual new cases is even worse considering antibody percent positive has been much lower than 10%. That’s really worrisome. Do we know if the FL dashboard is actually combining the tests? I thought at one point they said they were not.

 

[GoofGoof]

Article was from a month ago and the Florida DOH dashboard breaks out Serolgoy test reports from the PCR tests

That’s good news.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Don't you realize as long as hospitals are not getting overwhelmed it does not matter how many new cases there are. The purpose of the shutdown to was flatten the curve in order to reduce the burden on the healthcare system. We did that, as long as there is not huge surge of severe icu covid cases, new covid positive numbers don't matter. Actually increased numbers of mild infections might be a good thing in reaching herd immunity. That is with the assumption that death rates stay flat.

I’m not disagreeing with you...

I just think the current optics making what you’re proposing a possibility of about zero. It’s gonna be a hard sell to advocate herd immunity now.

Too many people - particularly the urban areas which have more economic sway (and should...frankly) have come this far and are too invested not to hedge if there is any chance of more lockups. But the other side of that coin is they will hesitate to go out and risk exposure.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

43% percent was from when the article was first written in May, look at the updated June 19th numbers in the graphic shared from that page. Florida is right at 50%. Either way like you said my point still stands. If NY reported their data correctly it would be in the 60% range.

Florida numbers are correct and NY is incorrect. Gotcha.

 

[DisneyCane]

At this point what are we really doing here? If they need a specially equipped enforcement brigade I think it’s time to reconsider the whole opening. If people can’t get it together and just follow some simple rules than shut it down. Sad, but do people really want to see security forces roaming the parks for enforcement? At what point is the magic just dead?

I agree with the sentiment but should 1% of people who are "the thing we all have" ruin it for everybody and all the employees?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

That means percent positive for actual new cases is even worse considering antibody percent positive has been much lower than 10%. That’s really worrisome. Do we know if the FL dashboard is actually combining the tests? I thought at one point they said they were not.

Depends on what day you ask on how they are doing things. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle, think you found a piece then the next day you look and it doesn’t fit.

 

[easyrowrdw]

43% percent was from when the article was first written in May, look at the updated June 19th numbers in the graphic shared from that page. Florida is right at 50%. Either way like you said my point still stands. If NY reported their data correctly it would be in the 60% range.

The overall rate is 43% as of June 19. You can look at just Florida if you want, but the original context was overall deaths, not just in Florida.

And you're again misstating the information. Their estimate excluding NY is 51.5%, which is not, "in the 60% range."

So far I'd say only 1/3 of the points you've made on this stand.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree with the sentiment but should 1% of people who are "the thing we all have" ruin it for everybody and all the employees?

No it shouldn’t, but sometimes life isn’t fair.

 

[wdwmagic]

Virgin Atlantic delays its return of flights to Orlando

Virgin Atlantic delays its return of flights to Orlando

The originally announced July 20 date for resuming service has been pushed back more than a month into late August.

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[kong1802]

Percent positive average over the past 7 days is over 10%. Not a good trend. A day or two can be volatility in reporting and testing but when the weekly averages start moving like that it is more likely the start of a trend. Remember that back in the beginning of May the gateway to start moving into phase 1 of re-opening was getting percent positive under 10% for a 14 day period. Not saying it’s time to talk about a full pull back, but people need to start taking the situation a little more serious.

About a month ago there seemed to be this thought being thrown out there, "Percent positives are below 5%, stop worrying" (might not have been 5, I actually think they were touting a smaller number). And now that they've doubled so rapidly, no one cares about percent positives. It's now "how many people are on a ventilator", or something similar....Keeps shifting, its hard to keep up with the "optimists" on this one.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

About a month ago there seemed to be this thought being thrown out there, "Percent positives are below 5%, stop worrying" (might not have been 5, I actually think they were touting a smaller number). And now that they've doubled so rapidly, no one cares about percent positives. It's now "how many people are on a ventilator", or something similar....Keeps shifting, its hard to keep up with the "optimists" on this one.

Oh, the 45 yarder was to easy a kick for you? Let’s see how you do when we move the posts back a bit.

 

[GoofGoof]

About a month ago there seemed to be this thought being thrown out there, "Percent positives are below 5%, stop worrying" (might not have been 5, I actually think they were touting a smaller number). And now that they've doubled so rapidly, no one cares about percent positives. It's now "how many people are on a ventilator", or something similar....Keeps shifting, its hard to keep up with the "optimists" on this one.

The goal posts do move a lot. The biggest problem is we are running out of stats to switch to. I hope that this current period is just a blip and not a longer term trend, but I keep saying that and it doesn’t seem to want to reverse itself.

 

[Disstevefan1]

About a month ago there seemed to be this thought being thrown out there, "Percent positives are below 5%, stop worrying" (might not have been 5, I actually think they were touting a smaller number). And now that they've doubled so rapidly, no one cares about percent positives. It's now "how many people are on a ventilator", or something similar....Keeps shifting, its hard to keep up with the "optimists" on this one.

The new spin is, "Only sick folks are being tested", that's why the percent positive is going up.

I was a big fan of the percent positive of total tests. Not anymore... The only benchmark is daily cases. When that starts going down then we will know the situation is getting better in my opinion.