Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

The classic correlation does not mean causation fallacy

In the absence of putting some states in a double blind experiment where they only get placebo procedures, which would be immoral if one thinks that might harm them, then correlation is all we have.

And well.. there are indeed plenty of double blind experiments that have been indeed done on animals and in laboratories to test hypotheses on transmission.

But when there is a high correlation, and you have sound scientific theories that have indeed been tested that explain the correlation, then you act with the best information you have.

Or... you can play the part of an epistemological skeptic just so you can ignore data that might cause you to have to deal with the discomfort of wearing a mask.

 

[legwand77]

Nothing about those charts are “good”

And the sky is green...and the seas are red.

The data is good in the sense it is not that bad relatively.

New York had more deaths than Florida today.

 

[legwand77]

In the absence of putting some states in a double blind experiment where they only get placebo procedures, which would be immoral if one thinks that might harm them, then correlation is all we have.

And well.. there are indeed plenty of double blind experiments that have been indeed done on animals and in laboratories to test hypotheses on transmission.

But when there is a high correlation, and you have sound scientific theories that have indeed been tested that explain the correlation, then you act with the best information you have.

Or... you can play the part of an epistemological skeptic just so you can ignore data that might cause you to have to deal with the discomfort of wearing a mask.

Um, not sure why you brought up masks, not debating that

 

[oceanbreeze77]

The data is good in the sense it is not that bad relatively.

New York had more deaths than Florida today.

NY has a much larger population. Its about the percentage of people.

Example:
A town of 5000 looses 2500 people
Another town of 50 loses 25

Both are equally tragic death rates

 

[legwand77]

NY has a much larger population. Its about the percentage of people.

Example:
A town of 5000 looses 2500 people
Another town of 50 loses 25

Both are equally tragic death rates

You missed my point. yes it is relative.

 

[mickeymiss]

It's become political, but I think it comes down to stubbornness and selfishness. I don't care what political affiliation the public has, data and common sense say, wear a mask. Oh well. I don't like to wear one, I won't be going to WDW because of that, but I certainly do when I run into a store for something.

I would wear a mask by choice at any indoor location but I have legitimate concerns about wearing one outside in scorching Florida. My husband works in an operating room and is used to wearing them but I find it scary. I get panicky. I won't go anywhere unless it feels worth wearing a mask. No such place exists in my state. Disney is worth wearing one for because I sincerely do trust their mission of safety and I'm generally quite savvy with precautions. I'm very worried about the heat. I got dangerously dehydrated in Florida last year and I won't let any amount of public shaming make me feel bad about finding a quiet place to take it off if it gets bad.

 

[bootywarrior]

A delay in reopening wouldn't surprise me in the least if this trend continues over the next few weeks. Just a week before their official closure announcement you had many still saying there was no way they would close. At this point, anything could happen.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You missed my point. yes it is relative.

I think your point - though more eloquent - boils down to a default one here: “we ain’t closin!!!”

 

[BrianLo]

The data is good in the sense it is not that bad relatively.

New York had more deaths than Florida today.

Death lags exposure quite significantly. Estimated to be about 4-6 weeks on average.

The early data (initial outbreaks) is mostly useless, no one had a clue about how badly it was circulating.

Iran's rebound in cases though proves the point nicely. About 4 weeks of rising cases to starting registering as an uptick in deaths. Which unfortunately times nicely with WDW's reopening date.

 

[legwand77]

I think your point - though more eloquent - boils down to a default one here: “we ain’t closin!!!”

Nope, close on facts not irrational fear

 

[Kevin_W]

And a percentage of them are increasingly found in Arizona and decreasingly found in NY which demonstrates which tactics save lives and which put them at risk.

Here's your context...

View attachment 477689
View attachment 477688

View attachment 477690

View attachment 477691

To be fair, those graphs should be put on the same scale (# per million people).

 

[Calmdownnow]

and Florida is much more transparent about data than most states. It is all here https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/

I don't know about other states, but didn't Florida fire the lass who set up their data website because she wouldn,t fiddle the figures as they started turning bad? And isn't her own newly set-up website regarded as being a more accurate data set than the State's?

 

[Andrew C]

NY has a much larger population. Its about the percentage of people.

Example:
A town of 5000 looses 2500 people
Another town of 50 loses 25

Both are equally tragic death rates

New York State has a higher population than Florida state? Nah. Not anymore. New York is 4th now. Florida is 3rd.

 

[Kevin_W]

NY has a much larger population. Its about the percentage of people.

Example:
A town of 5000 looses 2500 people
Another town of 50 loses 25

Both are equally tragic death rates

2019 Florida population: 21.5 million
2018 New York population: 19.5 million
(from census.gov)

How is NY much larger?

 

[Incomudro]

It's become political, but I think it comes down to stubbornness and selfishness. I don't care what political affiliation the public has, data and common sense say, wear a mask. Oh well. I don't like to wear one, I won't be going to WDW because of that, but I certainly do when I run into a store for something.

There is no data based on actual testing of he effectiveness of cloth masks as used outdoors on the faces of the general public for their reduction in the transmission of covid19.
It's all speculation.

 

[Kevin_W]

I don't know about other states, but didn't Florida fire the lass who set up their data website because she wouldn,t fiddle the figures as they started turning bad? And isn't her own newly set-up website regarded as being a more accurate data set than the State's?

No to both of those, though that's what she would have you believe.

 

[Horizons '83]

The metric we should be keeping an eye on is hospitalizations. If those skyrocket, get ready for shutdown # 2.

 

[Rider]

More sports cases:

Watney 1st player on PGA Tour to test positive

Nick Watney withdrew from the RBC Heritage tournament Friday after he became the first player on the PGA Tour to test positive for the coronavirus.

www.espn.com

 

[legwand77]

"Major League Baseball’s first known coronavirus outbreak has occurred at the Phillies’ spring-training facility in Clearwater, Fla. Five players and three staff members have tested positive for COVID-19, the Phillies said in a statement Friday, confirming an NBC Sports Philadelphia report, with the first confirmed case occurring June 16."

"The names of the infected people -- which extends to family members (adults and children), according to a source, who weren’t counted in the Phillies’ stated tally -- have not been released due to medical privacy law. It’s not believed that any of the people have required hospitalization, the source said.
Eight staff members have tested negative, according to the team, while 32 others (20 players, including minor leaguers, and 12 staff members) are still awaiting their test results."

All facilities in Clearwater have been closed indefinitely to all players, coaches and staff and will remain closed until medical authorities are confident that the virus is under control and our facilities are disinfected.

5 Phillies players, 3 staff members at Clearwater training facility test positive for coronavirus

Major League Baseball’s first known coronavirus outbreak has occurred at the Phillies’ spring-training facility in Clearwater, Fla. Five players and three staff members have tested positive for COVID-19.

www.inquirer.com

The Tampa Bay Lightning have temporarily closed their training facilities after several players and staffers test positive for COVID-19

Lightning shut down facility after positive tests

The Lightning have temporarily closed their training facility after an outbreak of the coronavirus.

t.co

It would be interesting to see if teams start having "covid" parties ala "chicken pox" parties to get immunity before the seasons start to not have to worry about any shutdowns or issues during the season. It is less dangerous than chicken pox was to kids for healthy pro athletes. Would not surprise me at all. Imagine if a star quarterback got covid before the super bowl.

 

[Horizons '83]

There is no data based on actual testing of he effectiveness of cloth masks as used outdoors on the faces of the general public for their reduction in the transmission of covid19.
It's all speculation.

Even if that is true, and its not, how can it hurt? Outside of the hyperbolic situations, the ones akin to the Skyliner thread, how hard is it to slap a mask on for 10 minutes while you shop. Disney is obviously a different story.