Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Andrew C]

The metric we should be keeping an eye on is hospitalizations. If those skyrocket, get ready for shutdown # 2.

If it reaches a point to overwhelm hospitals, eek.

floating hospital to Port Canaveral?

 

[legwand77]

There is no data based on actual testing of he effectiveness of cloth masks as used outdoors on the faces of the general public for their reduction in the transmission of covid19.
It's all speculation.

This is the most amazing part, the government ruling/guidance is based on no actual evidence.

 

[Chi84]

I would wear a mask by choice at any indoor location but I have legitimate concerns about wearing one outside in scorching Florida. My husband works in an operating room and is used to wearing them but I find it scary. I get panicky. I won't go anywhere unless it feels worth wearing a mask. No such place exists in my state. Disney is worth wearing one for because I sincerely do trust their mission of safety and I'm generally quite savvy with precautions. I'm very worried about the heat. I got dangerously dehydrated in Florida last year and I won't let any amount of public shaming make me feel bad about finding a quiet place to take it off if it gets bad.

According to the CDC, the main way the virus is transmitted is through prolonged contact with an infected person. What they're saying now is that the biggest danger comes from large indoor gatherings. I don't know how much the virus is transmitted outside if people are practicing social distancing, but my thought is that the mask requirement for outside locations will be lifted once the worst has passed. Apparently, Shanghai Disney has already lifted that restriction and now requires masks only indoors. But we aren't at that stage yet - so who knows how long that will be. (That's not a solicitation for people to post their predictions lol.)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A delay in reopening wouldn't surprise me in the least if this trend continues over the next few weeks. Just a week before their official closure announcement you had many still saying there was no way they would close. At this point, anything could happen.

That union letter to California about delaying Disneyland - I’d true - is really something to watch.
Interesting.

 

[legwand77]

Even if that is true, and its not, how can it hurt? Outside of the hyperbolic situations, the ones akin to the Skyliner thread, how hard is it to slap a mask on for 10 minutes while you shop. Disney is obviously a different story.

True, but the way it could hurt is giving people a sense of confidence and not doing the thing that is proven to work orders of magnitude better, distancing. The I have an mask on so I am safe to get in close environments.

 

[Horizons '83]

This is the most amazing part, the government ruling/guidance is based on no actual evidence.

I agree with you on many things, this isn't one.

Read this article and it has a link to all the evidence you want on how effective masks are including the studies the recommendations were based on.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

Also, a quick google search on how Japan and Thailand smashed this thing is primarily because of the use of masks.

 

[Rider]

This is the most amazing part, the government ruling/guidance is based on no actual evidence.

Best case: you help save American lives and speed the time it takes to get back to normal.

Worst case: you add an additional 2% of cloth to your body which is already covered 80-90% in cloth every day.

There is very little downside.

 

[legwand77]

I agree with you on many things, this isn't one.

Read this article and it has a link to all the evidence you on how effective masks are.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

Also, a quick google search on how Japan and Thailand smashed this thing is primarily because of the use of masks.

There are other guidance on the CDC and NIOSH and WHO sites that say the opposite

 

[Chi84]

This is the most amazing part, the government ruling/guidance is based on no actual evidence.

In all fairness, though, there isn't much evidence in general as to how this virus behaves. The government and its agencies have to make decisions based on incomplete data, so they will likely err on the side of caution. I'm giving them a break on this one. But when evidence does become available, I hope it will be analyzed to see if changes can be made.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

That union letter to California about delaying Disneyland - I’d true - is really something to watch.
Interesting.

On top of the pandemic, Forcing thousands of employees who do not want to go back would be another PR nightmare for Disney.

 

[Chi84]

Best case: you help save American lives and speed the time it takes to get back to normal.

Worst case: you add an additional 2% of cloth to your body which is already covered 80-90% in cloth every day.

There is very little downside.

Yes, but it covers the only 2% of your body that allows air to enter. It's not that easy for everyone - I'm sure there is little downside for you.

 

[Horizons '83]

There are other guidance on the CDC and NIOSH and WHO sites that say the opposite

Can you link those for me? I'd like to read them. I believe the WHO is now aligned with the CDC guidance on masks as well.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, but it covers the only 2% of your body that allows air to enter. It's not that easy for everyone - I'm sure there is little downside for you.

Masks suck.

Especially where Disney operates 365 day a year theme parks.

That has been an annoying, sucky constant from day one and will be forever

 

[lazyboy97o]

Like all the divisions in this country, it's political. The original February "Even though we believe the virus is real, we believe the overreaction by Democrats is a hoax to make the administration look bad." March / April's Europe & NYC numbers temporarily scared people into compliance. Once those numbers decreased, and it went back to being a more invisible threat... People are using masks as shorthand to demonstrate which side they are on, and recent events have only intensified the need for some people to visibly push back.

But same as it ever was, virus doesn't care. Unfortunately, since we know data doesn't effectively change people's minds, all the studies on effectiveness, hospitalization rates, or death rates won't mean much as long as people don't see people in their circle affected.

Months ago now on The Daily they were talking about how Americans would probably be complacent until we have a “Rock Hudson moment,” when a widely popular celebrity dies.

 

[MisterPenguin]

To be fair, those graphs should be put on the same scale (# per million people).

But scaling doesn't change the arc of the curves.

Also, percent positive is already scaled to population size. 10% of the population is 10% of the population regardless of how big or small that population it.

Which was the point of the Tweet that started this discussion chain. It was focused on percent positive, not the absolute value of the number of cases or deaths which haven't been scaled to population.

And the context is that AZ's percent positive has been climbing, while NY's has been falling. That's information independent of scale of population.

So, it is stunning because those figures don't need the population size to either overexaggerate or diminish its impact.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

But scaling doesn't change the arc of the curves.

Also, percent positive is already scaled to population size. 10% of the population is 10% of the population regardless of how big or small that population it.

Which was the point of the Tweet that started this discussion chain. It was focused on percent positive, not the absolute value of the number of cases or deaths which haven't been scaled to population.

And the context is that AZ's percent positive has been climbing, while NY's has been falling. That's information independent of scale of population.

So, it is stunning because those figures don't need the population size to either overexaggerate or diminish its impact.

 

[carolina_yankee]

According to the CDC, the main way the virus is transmitted is through prolonged contact with an infected person. What they're saying now is that the biggest danger comes from large indoor gatherings. I don't know how much the virus is transmitted outside if people are practicing social distancing, but my thought is that the mask requirement for outside locations will be lifted once the worst has passed. Apparently, Shanghai Disney has already lifted that restriction and now requires masks only indoors. But we aren't at that stage yet - so who knows how long that will be. (That's not a solicitation for people to post their predictions lol.)

Shanghai has virtually no community transmission and a very robust testing, tracking, and isolation regimen. Masks and distancing are here to stay until our Rt drops to 0. There is nowhere in the US that is even remotely that close.

If people aren't going to quarantine (and I'm in favor of resuming commerce), we know that masks, distancing, and hand-washing are the front lines of defense. Testing for anyone who wants/needs it and robust contact tracing is essential to nip a spread in the bud. It's simple. It's doable. In the states that are committed to that, numbers are plummeting. In the states that aren't committed to that, oops.

 

[Jenny72]

I'm afraid we can't wait for empirical studies to implement measures. There are ethical principles that prevent scientists from deliberately exposing people to the virus. Ideally you'd have 1000 people in a space, some of them infected, and then measure different amounts of masks, different types of masks, different distances, different numbers of infected people at different stages, different air quality, different participant ages, genders, pre-existing conditions, etc., and then see who got infected and who didn't. We'd learn a lot that way and get great data, and could make precise recommendations. But it's not allowed (obviously), so we have to do things like put screens up between hamsters, measure droplets, or just use observational data.

Right now it seems that staying farther apart, being outside, and wearing masks help to prevent the spread. It also makes logical sense (e.g., how will you infect me from 100 ft away on a windy day?). But we can't blame scientists or policy-makers for not having better data on exact effectiveness of measures. There's nothing that can be done about that.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

But the US is refusing to do the aggressive measures that have been widely effective in Asia and Europe...

...because of that year it is.

This will go down as one of dumbest incidents in American history no matter what. Move on over, Spanish American War!!

Europes scaling back, is what we have been doing since march

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Europes scaling back, is what we have been doing since march

Timing might be important in that plan...