Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Rimmit]

We won't really be able to look at the net increase/decrease of fatalities until next year looking back vs. previous year.
That is why you need to look at the total annual number to understand what has truly changed and to what magnitude. At this point, the national number is so tiny, it doesn't even register enough to determine if it is possibly incremental to a normal year (insert hyperventilating (with several exclamation marks) of where the final number could hypothetically end up).

For those of you that were wondering about the month over month increase from previous years and saying these people would be dying anyway and that compared to the regular rates of death this would likely be negligible, the New York Times has an article and a nice graph illustrating the differences so far from previous CDC data of the actual number deaths compared to number of expected deaths based on previous years.

Over 5330 MORE deaths than expected. That is more than 100 percent than expected or DOUBLE the number expected deaths! This data is only till April 4th and counts the previous 31 days. Under no circumstances would we ever expect DOUBLE the number of deaths. Even on a month when we had 9/11 it does not approach the pain we are enduring now. It also does not include the last 7 days which have been the deadliest. This is despite the decrease in accident related deaths AND despite our best efforts to stop it. Unchecked who knows where this ends up. As of right now the actual deaths are double the number of expected deaths in a normal year.

DOUBLE.

Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total (Published 2020)

Deaths from all causes have surged, undermining arguments that coronavirus numbers have been overblown.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I mentioned earlier that I know a few travel agents both over here and over there. As soon as the officials say yes, there will be a tidal wave of visitors. No one is cancelling - quite the opposite.

Straw poll I know.

I’m guessing there is a mixed bag of people. My wife is a travel agent and was doing it part time until she lost her main job in February. Now she’s going to do it more. Her clients for the most part are hanging on. Many have canceled and told her they will be in touch next year. What’s funny is that the majority that have cancelled June and July trips are families with children. The hanger ons are mostly couples. That’s why I mentioned families with kids might be more willing to say let’s wait.

 

[peter11435]

They can chomp at the bit all they want but unless,as we know, people are not going anywhere with their kids and family if they don’t feel safe. A lot of work to do on that front.

I think you’ll be surprised.

Remember how busy WDW was on its last weekend of operation. Everyone was already well aware of the threat then but that didn’t stop them from being there. And that was with zero protections in place and people hadn’t been trapped at home and deprived of entertainment for months yet.

There’s a huge section of the population here that still doesn’t really believe there is even a threat and thinks this is all an overreaction. I see people around me everyday taking their kids and family’s to the local parks and grocery stores unnecessarily with no protection.

Sure you will have people who do go out because they don’t feel safe. Just as there are those who still won’t fly.

 

[Kevin_W]

Right, and its the N95 mask because its 95% effective against objects of .3 microns. This coronavirus is .1 microns. Therefore, it can pass through the mask if it is transmitted on its own (not with spit or dust).

Okay, Kamikaze. Apparently I did not explain that well enough. The quoted part of your post is false. Particles smaller than 0.3 microns are filtered more easily than particles at 0.3 microns. That is why 0.3 microns was chosen for the specification. The link say squite a bit more than "this is how filters work". Here is a picture of capture efficiency vs. particle size. this is specifically dealing with HEPA, not N95, but you can see the efficiency peat is lowest at 0.3 microns. At 0.1 microns it is >99.99%.

As for healthcare workers getting sick, high er exposure is the main reason. 95% is still not 100% so some particles may get through. If exposed to enough, that could be enough to sicken a worker. There is also the issue of not wearing the PPE properly, or other routes of exposure when taking masks on/off.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I think you’ll be surprised.

Remember how busy WDW was on its last weekend of operation. Everyone was already well aware of the threat then but that didn’t stop them from being there. And that was with zero protections in place and people hadn’t been trapped at home and deprived of entertainment for months yet.

There’s a huge section of the population here that still doesn’t really believe there is even a threat and thinks this is all an overreaction. I see people around me everyday taking their kids and family’s to the local parks and grocery stores unnecessarily with no protection.

Sure you will have people who do go out because they don’t feel safe. Just as there are those who still won’t fly.

I do remember the crowds at Disney on the last weekend. It was crazy. We know much more now about what this is and if everyone knew then what we know now, I don’t think it would have been that crazy. Crowded? Yes because I see the same people around here in grocery stores without a care in the world. Always going to be those but I believe you won’t see those type of crowds in Disney for a year or two.just my opinion.

 

[Lilofan]

I do remember the crowds at Disney on the last weekend. It was crazy. We know much more now about what this is and if everyone knew then what we know now, I don’t think it would have been that crazy. Crowded? Yes because I see the same people around here in grocery stores without a care in the world. Always going to be those but I believe you won’t see those type of crowds in Disney for a year or two.just my opinion.

I did read somewhere that when the college program abruptly came to an end and the cast were told they had less than one week pack up and to leave property a number of them went to the parks in the last day of operation.

 

[peter11435]

The economy of a country will completely collapse if SIP policies remain in place until a vaccine or treatment becomes available.

Agreed. If we have to wait for a vaccine, one that we still don’t have any idea when or if it will be ready, there will be no recovery.

 

[Horizons '83]

The economy of a country will completely collapse if SIP policies remain in place until a vaccine or treatment becomes available.

Lets also remember what the main reason we are sheltering is, to flatten to curve to help the health care workers and hospitals as a whole. I think once we see hospitals as a whole stabilize, we will see the easing of the SIP orders.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Lets also remember what the main reason we are sheltering is, to flatten to curve to help the health care workers and hospitals as a whole. I think once we see hospitals as a whole stabilize, we will see the easing of the SIP orders.

I think we will see the easing of SIP orders, but at the same time social/physical distancing will still be required of businesses with no large gatherings above 50 or 250 people until there is a cure/vaccine. Based on that, you're going to have limited capacity at retailers/restaurants, offices will have to lower their capacity (which I think will in turn cause many business owners to downsize or eliminate their lease and move to remote-only), and schools are going to have to continue with distance learning (maybe they can figure out ways to have kids meet at school once a week for an hour or something for social time). Other than that, I don't see how you can go forward if the fear of an outbreak is still there.

 

[Andrew C]

Agreed. If we have to wait for a vaccine, one that we still don’t have any idea when or if it will be ready, there will be no recovery.

All indications are we will not be waiting for a vaccine before we start to open things back up. That was never the intention of these lockdowns and slow the spread rules anyway. More about ensuring the spread doesn’t get so far out of hand and overwhelm the hospitals. And of course to save lives.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

All indications are we will not be waiting for a vaccine before we start to open things back up. That was never the intention of these lockdowns and slow the spread rules anyway. More about ensuring the spread doesn’t get so far out of hand and overwhelm the hospitals. And of course to save lives.

If Newsom's comments end up being the directionin which states move forward, then outside of reduced capacity at restaurants/retailers and re-designed office spaces, I think you are looking at a majority of what we consider 'normal' will be put on hold until a vaccine happens. There's an alarming amount of people talking about that reality that it seems like they're trying to prepare people for that to be the new norm for the next 18-24 months.

 

[peter11435]

I think we will see the easing of SIP orders, but at the same time social/physical distancing will still be required of businesses with no large gatherings above 50 or 250 people until there is a cure/vaccine. Based on that, you're going to have limited capacity at retailers/restaurants, offices will have to lower their capacity (which I think will in turn cause many business owners to downsize or eliminate their lease and move to remote-only), and schools are going to have to continue with distance learning (maybe they can figure out ways to have kids meet at school once a week for an hour or something for social time). Other than that, I don't see how you can go forward if the fear of an outbreak is still there.

There’s still no way of knowing when or if a vaccine will be available. And even once it is, it will take a long time to vaccinate the population and you will never get everyone. It’s also unknown how effective that vaccine will be long term and how quickly you might be dealing with a new strain the vaccine is ineffective for. The fear of an outbreak is always there, from this or something else, just as it was last fall before anyone knew this was coming.

I get it. We all want answers and we all want perceived safety. But at some point the world has to be able to function again. We will need to find ways to return to some level of normal, while mitigating risk, without waiting for a permanent solution that may never come.

 

[peter11435]

All indications are we will not be waiting for a vaccine before we start to open things back up. That was never the intention of these lockdowns and slow the spread rules anyway. More about ensuring the spread doesn’t get so far out of hand and overwhelm the hospitals. And of course to save lives.

This. The point of everything we have been doing since mid March was never to hide from the virus until there was a cure/vaccine. It was to slow the spread so healthcare could be better prepared.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

There’s still no way of knowing when or if a vaccine will be available. And even once it is, it will take a long time to vaccinate the population and you will never get everyone. It’s also unknown how effective that vaccine will be long term and how quickly you might be dealing with a new strain the vaccine is ineffective for. The fear of an outbreak is always there, from this or something else, just as it was last fall before anyone knew this was coming.

I get it. We all want answers and we all want perceived safety. But at some point the world has to be able to function again. We will need to find ways to return to some level of normal, while mitigating risk, without waiting for a permanent solution that may never come.

I don't disagree with you. I really don't. I'd like to think that adults can make the decisions for themselves and be prudent where they feel necessary. It does not look like we will get to make that choice though. I hope I'm wrong, but as it's being laid out right now, it feels like that's the direction everything is headed in while the research is done (especially around antibodies and immunity) to determine what the next steps are to return to 'normal'.

 

[peter11435]

I don't disagree with you. I really don't. I'd like to think that adults can make the decisions for themselves and be prudent where they feel necessary. It does not look like we will get to make that choice though. I hope I'm wrong, but as it's being laid out right now, it feels like that's the direction everything is headed in while the research is done (especially around antibodies and immunity) to determine what the next steps are to return to 'normal'.

I think you’re going to see a lot of back and forth over the coming weeks about how to proceed and a lot of people making statements that benefit them politically and financially.

Ultimately pressure will build and economic and social considerations will prevail. Inevitably in a month or so numbers will start to drop. And with that public perception will be that we have turned a corner. Despite the significant risk of a second wave, at that point it will be very hard to convince a population that we should continue destroying our economy and negatively impacting their lives.

 

[Kevin_W]

Lets also remember what the main reason we are sheltering is, to flatten to curve to help the health care workers and hospitals as a whole. I think once we see hospitals as a whole stabilize, we will see the easing of the SIP orders.

Outside of NYC, hospitals have been way under capacity from all reports that I've seen.

 

[Lilofan]

When washing hands with soap and water at the theme parks, the water that comes out is usually cold and is on a timer to save on water costs. I would hope the Disney meeting of the minds would make the water cycle run a few seconds longer so we can wash our hands better. I never thought that not only when we are going to wait in line to use the urinal or toilet, but there will be a crowded line to wash our hands. Sign of the times. A lot of gift shops sell rain ponchos, but also there will be a demand for hand sanitizer also which Disney will surely mark up the price and sell.

 

[Kevin_W]

It will be especially difficult to convince the population of a second wave if (when, IMHO) the true death rate and actual numbers of the first wave come in much lower than had been projected (valid or not). Crying wolf will only work once.

But no one will admit to crying wolf, even if the numbers come in very low. They are already saying that the reason the numbers are an order of magnitude lower than their projections we're "due to our actions" (regardless of the fact that the models included these actions). Politicians will take credit regardless of how this goes.

 

[Kevin_W]

When washing hands with soap and water at the theme parks, the water that comes out is usually cold and is on a timer to save on water costs. I would hope the Disney meeting of the minds would make the water cycle run a few seconds longer so we can wash our hands better. I never thought that not only when we are going to wait in line to use the urinal or toilet, but there will be a crowded line to wash our hands. Sign of the times.

On a tangent, but that is my main complaint about the Ohio Theater in my town. The men's restroom has 6 stalls, 12 urinals, and 2 sinks. Who did that math?!?

As for Disney, I thought most sinks in restrooms were motion sensors these days so the water runs however long your hands are there.

 

[pdude81]

On a tangent, but that is my main complaint about the Ohio Theater in my town. The men's restroom has 6 stalls, 12 urinals, and 2 sinks. Who did that math?!?

As for Disney, I thought most sinks in restrooms were motion sensors these days so the water runs however long your hands are there.

I wonder if employees have to go around turning on the sinks to flush the stagnant water from P traps and keep the sewer gas from escaping if the water evaporates.