Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[flynnibus]

It's interesting how the media really didn't cover it here in SoCal because I think they were trying to tamp down the panic, but it's also interesting how the panic buying appears to just now be hitting the rest of the country beyond the West Coast and New York state.

Ehh... your news source is inadequate.

 

[flynnibus]

Part of me wishes stores would institute a maximum quantity per customer, but then you know jerks would just send six people into the store at once all shopping for the same house.

Well maybe Uncle Sam would send ration books along with those checks they are talking about...

 

[Tom Morrow]

Updates from exploring shuttered WDW, night two:

- Even more Disney buses parked in the MK lot than last night. They have basically completely filled up the Simba and Woody lots.
- Exterior lighting still on for Cinderella Castle, Space Mountain, Expedition Everest, and Spaceship Earth. Last night Tower of Terror's was still on but tonight it was off. Galaxy's Edge is dark. This isn't that important but I expect at some point more and more things will go dark as this extends.
- Was still allowed to park and walk around Disney Springs. We didn't see a single venue open and saw maybe 30 people, tops. We were surprised we were even allowed to walk around. I don't expect this to be allowed much longer. It was exceptionally sobering and surreal.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Regardless of what was said and clarified during the press conference, I think it's sensible to assume that things will not be reopening or going back to normal in April. There is no good reason to think otherwise.

Dr. Fauci is the best to gauge this IMO. Day before yesterday he said it's indeterminate and our actions will decide much of it. But that it was a reasonable guess that the curve would START to bend down in 4-5wks... but that it could be 8wks, could be less, but could be a few months.

 

[ELG13]

Well maybe Uncle Sam would send ration books along with those checks they are talking about...

Our Publix and other stores have signs up. It's been two per customer for the panic items. But yeah people are totally gonna double shop. Even my husband is starting to worry about food. I told him, once this initial panic dies down and people have every corner of their house filled, it will be ok. The entire country still has power and water and gas. Food will be fine. I told him it's literally like a hurricane. But with power and water so ... We got this. It's fine. I do think he is starting to worry about our parents. His mom is just being reckless and my parents work at Walmart and Publix so there's no avoiding it for them.

 

[Jwink]

What are your opinions regarding lay offs or furlough for cast members?

furthermore do you guys think it’s possible Disney will just cease operations for good? I mean they can’t pay cast members through August ... who do they let go first?

 

[flynnibus]

That’s bogus...the federal government has every authority to take control in this situation.

No they don’t. They’d Do not have the authority to regulate the simple operation of businesses or freedom of movement in matters that are not interstate or border related. This is simple civics...

That would go beyond even martial law...

We have a separation of state and fed... with a limited fed.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

do you guys think it’s possible Disney will just cease operations for good?

No.

But a bunch of rumors are going to start. They already have:

Disney Stock Has Crashed. 1 Analyst Thinks Apple Should Bid.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Bernie McTernan sees appeal in combing the Apple iOS platform with the Disney ecosystem of content, merchandise, and parks.

www.barrons.com

 

[Jwink]

No.

But a bunch of rumors are going to start. They already have:

Disney Stock Has Crashed. 1 Analyst Thinks Apple Should Bid.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Bernie McTernan sees appeal in combing the Apple iOS platform with the Disney ecosystem of content, merchandise, and parks.

www.barrons.com

Ugh what does that mean?!

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

What are your opinions regarding lay offs or furlough for cast members?

furthermore do you guys think it’s possible Disney will just cease operations for good? I mean they can’t pay cast members through August ... who do they let go first?

Cease operations? Can't imagine that would be warranted. Furloughs, more terminations - for sure. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with their business or long term demand. This is a (relatively speaking) short term shock. Not sure how their liquidity is to handle a long period in such high fixed cost space...

And that one analyst grabbing attention by saying Apple should buy Disney... tad premature and he's not exactly a financial wizard

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Ugh what does that mean?!

Don't put stock in any of it. You're going to hear a bunch of different things from a bunch of different sources (media, analysts, etc.)

Nobody knows. Nobody knows when we come out of it. Much less the condition of certain companies once we do.

I assume any layoffs will be done - as the windows of time elapse based on the time-frames they've made public to this point.

 

[larryz]

No.

But a bunch of rumors are going to start. They already have:

Disney Stock Has Crashed. 1 Analyst Thinks Apple Should Bid.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst Bernie McTernan sees appeal in combing the Apple iOS platform with the Disney ecosystem of content, merchandise, and parks.

www.barrons.com

$91.25 is hardly a "crash," but it's getting close to my "buy" signal.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

$91.25 is hardly a "crash," but it's getting close to my "buy" signal.

FWIW I don't buy into any of the M&A talk. I just find it funny that it's already started. AAPL is down 22% themselves.

 

[techgeek]

FWIW I don't buy into any of the M&A talk. I just find it funny that it's already started. AAPL is down 22% themselves.

With AAPL's legendary cash position it's reasonable to think they may eventually use this environment to go shopping... but even if they were interested in the content side of the business, I find it hard to believe Tim Cook wants to be a theme park operator.

 

[larryz]

With AAPL's legendary cash position it's reasonable to think they may eventually use this environment to go shopping... but even if they were interested in the content side of the business, I find it hard to believe Tim Cook wants to be a theme park operator.

The parks don't have to stay in the family -- InBev divested their parks after buying Anheuser-Busch. Say "Hello!" to I-Parks, Inc.

 

[ChrisFL]

We just need OLC to step in and buy the parks division

 

[disneygeek90]

Talks the parks being bought makes me stressed. They’ll reopen. They have to.

 

[Angel Ariel]

[

Yep. Isolate now, thru mid-April, or isolate thru August. Your choice.

Exactly. I would much rather take the extreme as much as possible now and limit how long this has to go on at all than have to deal with this through August. DH is now teleworking. My classes are cancelled as long as school is out. Likely no income for me at all for as long as this lasts. I’m certainly worried about that, and have a huge interest in that time being as short as possible. All of DD’s private therapy appointments are either canceled or being moved to teletherapy. With her genetic disorder (rare), no one has any idea how COViD would impact her - so, no play dates. We don’t see the neighbors out and playing in groups either. We go outside and play with her, take family walks, etc - and will continue to, but will also practice social distancing.

 

[monykalyn]

Not only should there be info about testing but also there should be info released about how many people that tested positive needed to be hospitalized. Of those that did, how many needed ventilators.

Without that data, you can't begin to project how many hospital beds and ventilators will be needed if X% of the population is infected. Using current numbers will give a high estimate because not nearly enough testing has been done to get an idea of mild or asymptomatic cases.

This! Really it is incomplete data set and every paper that has come out has stated this . Unfortunately most don't read further than a headline, nor understand anything about studies.

Thought a few of you may appreciate this

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.

www.statnews.com

Except now it’s becoming clear people can be reinfected and the infection is worse. Also that you can spread the virus many days after you are symptom free. So now they’re rethinking their whole strategy.

When you post wild speculation like this you REALLY should have a source to back it up.
Here is some other sources

UpToDate

www.uptodate.com

Coronavirus spreads quickly and sometimes before people have symptoms, study finds

Infectious disease researchers studying the novel coronavirus were able to identify how quickly the virus can spread, a factor that may help public health officials in their efforts at containment. They found that time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week and that more...

www.sciencedaily.com

however read it all:" Infection case reports are based on people's memories of where they went and whom they had contact with. If health officials move quickly to isolate patients, that may also skew the data."

FTFY.

There's likely been cases closer than that for days.

very likely, can't find it now but was just reading from (I think) the Washington researchers that they estimated the virus had been around ~6weeks by the time they identified it here in patient zero. Holiday travel time, Sea-Tac? yeah if true it's already spread.

How many people here are working from home, or not working at all today?

Long term care consultant-1/2 from home, 1/2 on sight, limited/no contact with residents and screened at the door. One was already in lockdown due to flu (confirmed flu for first several, then assumed in rest)

The worst part could be is this how we are going to react to every virus that comes along? We didn't shut the world down for Swine, Bird, Ebola, etc.

Yes that will HAVE to be answered as there will be a next time. Hospitals triaged and had parking lot tents set up for the peak of 2017-2018 flu season too-and strict visitor policies and pleas for hand hygiene etc and we still saw high deaths-WITH a vaccine and antivirals. World didn't end then did it?

In answer to the legacy for the future I would hope this leads to an increase in available ICU beds, ventilators and other equipment.

Maybe? Hospitals run on a very thin margin and they are NOT going to invest in majorly expensive equipment to have it unused most of the year-1 no money for it, 2-no space for it 3-there wouldn't be personnel to staff it either.

54% of small business owners are over age 50. The average age of CEOs is 59. The average age of CFOs is 56. In this plan to "just let it run it's course,"

I turn 50 on Friday and I have asthma. If I get a severe case and go into ARDS I'd rather just be let go.

Part of the flu protection is a vaccine and if that is ineffective anti-virals tested for the flu

and yet: https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/03/10/flu-update--CDC estimated that there have been 20,000 deaths related to the flu so far this season.

I’ve been personally boycotting Amazon for over a year

They do give many small business a platform to sell though.
Percentage of Online Sales Making Up Small Business Totals: According to Small Business Trends sixty percent of small businesses selling in online marketplaces receive more than half of their online sales from sites like Amazon

How about a 50-year-old father of two young children who also happens to have heart issues that will greatly exacerbate symptoms if he catches the virus?

I hope he takes appropriate precautions all the time, especially during flu season

I meant more than just health experts. I'm sure they're talking to economists, statisticians, etc. etc.

I would like to share your optimism but this administration isn't exactly known for wanting to have facts, much less acting on them

I don't know that any one entity (outside of those very high up in the decision chain) would have access to all that information. Like I said before...it would be nice, but I also think it would cause even more panicking as the confirmed cases rise.

Actual numbers properly reported may actually do just the opposite

Realistically though, they're still only testing people who are already presenting symptoms. People can test positive and be asymptomatic, so the data gleaned from test results wouldn't be accurate anyway.

More data, properly used is always good.

Did they do a chest x-ray that showed the ground glass signature?

CT can show what a CXR misses per some studies now coming from CHina

Three weeks of isolation so it can burn itself out in the current population. Everybody has to cooperate.

If anybody breaks the rule, the clock has to start over. Someone in week 3 not yet fully recovered can infect someone brand new, and that extends the timeline.

That is why everybody should isolate for 3 weeks.

Which is why widespread rapid testing with ability to discern active infection vs having recovered/not infectious would be the ideal scenario-then we'd know even if this widespread shutdown is working!

f one-third of the US population gets infected, and the mortality rate remains at 4.5% (high estimate), then we're looking at 4,500,000 Americans dying...$22,222 per dead American using your $100 billion number.

That doesn't take into account underlying health conditions, age etc. If only 5% of of the 20% of severe cases develop ARDS or other complications the numbers are different. And frankly closer to flu and other causes of death.

Surgeon General saying masks don't help and in the next sentence saying doctors need those masks to protect themselves

Because hospital personnel are providing up close care AND know how to properly use them AND have other personal protective equipment to use WITH the masks.

s for models, they are really pointless. I've run enough model in my life to know that for any model to be accurate you need good data to base it on. We don't have good data to base any model on in this country. We don't really have a clue how many people are really already infected nor have a clue as to what the real rate of being asymptomatic or of suffering serious life threatening consequences are which means everything in those models is a guess.

Yes, and papers - even the doomsday ones-actually state the assumptions they make but the media fans the hype and hysteria and then it turns into the telephone game with each hysterical panicked person repeating and exxagerating.

The lack of a prom and graduation ceremony is the least of their worries.

Indeed.

And yes, TrainChasers, it is the least of their worries but it's very sad nonetheless for this moment in their lives - as their lives revolve around school right now. Remember when you were that age.

Agree @orlandogal22 al22! @TrainChasers Maybe in long run but you tell that to senior who won't get to play that last game, the excitement of counting the days down with their friends, shopping for prom (hope my DD's $300 dress is refundable), senior week activities that they've waited and worked towards for FOUR years. It is OK for them to be sad and upset!!!!!

I was angry because a woman who works there wanted to wear latex gloves when she was at the register and they said she could not because it would scare the customers. My mom also works at the same Publix.

Gloves often cause far far farfarx infinity more issues than people want to believe. For gloves to do ANYTHING everytime she touched money and put it in till-take gloves off - wash hands-put new gloves on and hand money back. Now go through the glove changing scenario with EVERY customer. If she touches ONE contaminated surface that pair of gloves is USELESS and must be changed.
@21stamps my state has this-better than nothing? And I am in Greene county

COVID-19 Outbreak | Health & Senior Services

health.mo.gov

Coronavirus outbreak: Live Updates

Pandemic news from around the world.

www.livescience.com

 

[Phil12]

It can be but it seems to be rampant everywhere unfortunately.

I can report that I have not visited with any of my family, extended family or friends for over two weeks now. Under normal circumstances we would have all been over to each others abodes and shared meals, socialized and discussed the news.

However, we realize the importance of the quarantine and we're committed to doing our part to help stop the spread of this virus. We have enough toilet paper, canned soup, tuna fish, peanut butter and gorp to last for the rest of the year. We all pay our bills automatically via bank drafts and we have enough in savings to last for more than a year without any outside help.

Perhaps we are the exception. Why just today, as part of my new discipline of social distancing, I yelled at several neighborhood children to get off my lawn (at a safe distance of more than 40 feet).

I'm sure that during the next few weeks some people, that were less prepared, will have to visit Walmart and buy toilet paper and other such items and the virus transmission rate will, of course, be so great that you won't be able to swing a dead cat without hitting a covid-19 infected victim.

I'll still be in isolation. That is unless I am all ready infected and the ravages of covid-19 have yet to cause symptoms in my body. In that case, if I or any member of my immediate quarantined household start to display the signs of covid-19 infection, they will be housed in the infection tent in the backyard. They will be able to call via their cell phone for food and other items that the other household members will leave for them in a disinfected plastic crate.

It's everyone's duty to help stop, or at least slow down this pandemic and we're in it to win it!