Unless you haven't left your house in the last 2 years and had no one else in your house in the last 2 years, you've been exposed. I have been very careful, masked everywhere in public and stayed home more often than not. But because I've been in public , flown a handful of times and eaten in restaurants, I've been exposed *somewhere*.
My guess is you’ve been vaccinated too. Therefore you are not naive to Covid. Vaccination is the safe way to be exposed. I’m talking about the 35% of Americans that aren’t fully vaccinated. There is a >75% chance they have been infected and recovered from Covid at this point.
I totally am aware of this too. I know I have had to be exposed. Whether it was vaccines that kept me from knowingly testing positive or what, I know I've been exposed. I know full well my child has been too. Our school notices confirmed that more than once.
Where do you get that number? Curious truly.
Of course I'm vaccinated. I'm not an idiot with a death wish.
Alright math time. As of this morning 78,900,375 people have been confirmed to have had Covid in this country that means, assuming there have been no reinfections (which are still quite rare) 23% of Americans have had confirmed Covid, nearly 1 in 4. However, as of October 2021 the CDC estimated that only 1:4 cases were being reported, and with the increase in at home tests that’s probably conservative for the omicron wave but let’s use it. That means that there has been 315,601,500 or 95% assuming only one infection per person (however there was likely far more asymptomatic double infections so this is an over estimate.). Of the two groups, which group was more likely to get Covid? The unvaccinated of course, thus my confidence.
Hyperbolic much?
I didn't order any because they would have come while we were in Hawaii and I didn't want packages sitting on our front porch, and it was super cold while we were gone.
I appreciate the math on this but if I know 2 people who had reinfections in just my close circle, I am not sure how rare that is. Also lots of guessing on some things like under reporting.
Agreed. We ordered thinking we would need them. Took almost a month to arrive. Not sure we'll use them. Tests are easy to find.
Yay for progress? We have field trips back. We also have my kid's 8th grade DC trip in May scheduled. Concerts as normal too. It's nice to see some improvements for the kids. Parenting during the pandemic here has been worse than my time dealing with an infant with reflux.
That really should not come into play at all when determining whether something is rare or not. A close circle is not a large enough set to make an appropriate determination with any sort of accuracy. Looking at millions of reported cases will be far more accurate, even if there may be a few data gaps.
That's entirely my point. I don't have enough people in my circle to know how big or small reinfections were. Assuming they are rare to not count is literally that - an assumption. Right now I see 4% reinfection rate with a quick search (edit in NY). That's small but not rare.
We talked about this and other factors at our weekly COVID meeting. Another contributor now is the high availability of at-home testing. The ability to have a rapid answer if those sniffles are COVID or not has helped people make informed decisions about whether they should isolate, go to work, go to school, etc. I have higher faith that we might just be near the end of this... but I'm still waiting on the EUA for young children before I'll really start feel relaxed. Yup, it's all sun and roses from here on out. Thank God some power-mad autocrat hasn't invaded his neighbor and turned the existing world order upside-down... oh, wait...
4% reinfection rate, so my numbers drop from 93% to 89%, my low estimate of >75% vaccinated or recovered still stands.
You're district does D.C. as well? That's great. It's the only thing that was still planned for the 8th graders. Mines in 7th, so another year to go, but she's already excited lol.
Yep! We're about 400 miles away and the bus the kids out for 3 nights. I was so happy to see it back. The last 2 years were canceled. I went to the same middle school as my kid and did it as well years ago. So far his 8th grade has been very normal in most ways. Way better than 7th grade at least. 6th he got to do 3/4 of the year so most of the fun stuff!
I would imagine any day now.
