Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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maui2k7

Well-Known Member
A Disney question regarding COVID.

Does anyone know roughly how many cast members (%) are out with COVID? Is there a known staffing shortage due to Omicron that is hitting WDW right now?
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
“We are pretty much at capacity”

hospital is “managing, but just barely,” at keeping up with the increased number of sick patients in the last three weeks.

“We had to treat patients in places where we normally wouldn’t, like in recovery rooms,”

In California several hospitals have set up large “surge tents”

All quotes from a Times article regarding the 2017/2018 flu season.

The sad reality is our hospitals can barely handle a bad flu season, they had no chance of keeping up with a pandemic. Will we learn and prepare for the next illness? probably not because it costs too much.
Imagine if people were to take care of themselves for the next possible time around?
Learn from this moment?
Teach the younger generations to do that so that they would do better, and teach their kids?
Naaahhh... That's not the American way.
We'll go back to beating our collective bodies like they owe us money, then hope scientists can rapidly come up with a vaccine to save us - or a pill we can take after illness sets in.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
Imagine if people were to take care of themselves for the next possible time around?
Learn from this moment?
Teach the younger generations to do that so that they would do better, and teach their kids?
Naaahhh... That's not the American way.
We'll go back to beating our collective bodies like they owe us money, then hope scientists can rapidly come up with a vaccine to save us - or a pill we can take after illness sets in.
Do you realize this doesn't help enough with covid even? Unvaxxed just under 20yo not unhealthy person died - didn't take covid seriously - loved one of a friend. Keep peddling this if you like but it doesn't help the healthy I know who died or are struggling still.

As somone who worked my off to lose 85 pounds and keep it off after 2 pregnancies even, I'm understanding of the need to be healthy but tired of this narrow minded thinking.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Imagine if people were to take care of themselves for the next possible time around?
Learn from this moment?
Teach the younger generations to do that so that they would do better, and teach their kids?
Naaahhh... That's not the American way.
We'll go back to beating our collective bodies like they owe us money, then hope scientists can rapidly come up with a vaccine to save us - or a pill we can take after illness sets in.
You really think trillions in food and restaurant development is going bye bye because people want to feel better about themselves?
I got some of the good good I can trade for whatever it is you're smoking, sounds like it is first rate.
 
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Incomudro

Well-Known Member
Do you realize this doesn't help enough with covid even? Unvaxxed just under 20yo not unhealthy person died - didn't take covid seriously - loved one of a friend. Keep peddling this if you like but it doesn't help the healthy I know who died or are struggling still.

As somone who worked my *** off to lose 85 pounds and keep it off after 2 pregnancies even, I'm understanding of the need to be healthy but tired of this narrow minded thinking.
It would help tremendously, thus putting less stress on the healthcare systems.
And not just for covid.
The population was sick long before covid showed up.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
Do you realize this doesn't help enough with covid even? Unvaxxed just under 20yo not unhealthy person died - didn't take covid seriously - loved one of a friend. Keep peddling this if you like but it doesn't help the healthy I know who died or are struggling still.

As somone who worked my *** off to lose 85 pounds and keep it off after 2 pregnancies even, I'm understanding of the need to be healthy but tired of this narrow minded thinking.
It makes a bigger difference than many would like to admit. Direct copy from the CDC website…

Adults with excess weight are at even greater risk during the COVID-19 pandemic:

As for the 20 year old there’s alway outliers, I used to do all the runDisney races at DL and watched a guy go down right behind the Paradise hotel from a heart attack, healthy runner a couple hundred yards from the finish of a half marathon and dropped dead with zero warning. There’s no guarantees in life, that doesn’t mean we don’t try.
 
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hopemax

Well-Known Member
Just to circle back to the Ontario, Canada data, here is the latest chart showing the seven day average daily case rate by vaccination status. Their data says that 78% of the population is fully vaccinated and 83% are at least partially vaccinated. Prior to the latest measures there were already indoor mask requirements as well. I shall wait for the condescending reply that tells me that I don't understand anything and that if we just all did the "right" thing, COVID would no longer be an issue.
View attachment 612260
I don't think you can draw the conclusion you want to draw from this chart. In order to see the impact of restrictions, you would have to overlay the case loads these 3 groups in a no restriction situation and compare the slope of the lines and the scale on the left axis. Convenient for you, we only get one shot and so the alternate scenario data isn't available for comparison.

As to why the rate of vaccinated cases are rising faster than unvaccinated...

We know the vaccines are less effective vs Omicron. Breakthrough Omicron > Breakthrough Delta. The vaccinated and partially vaccinated group was doing fairly well in early December against Delta, but around December 15th something changed. Presumably, the impact of Omicron. For the unvaccinated group, it appears that Omicron did not change their level of protection Delta vs Omicron, the slope at this point of the purple line did not change. The other part, I suspect is still behavioral. This is why the slope changed for all three groups at basically the same time around Dec 22nd. Even careful people got together with their friends & family for the holidays. I assume careful people are more likely to be 'fully vaccinated with no previous infection,' so they were more at risk for infection than at anytime after they had been vaccinated and bad for them, Omicron also attended the gathering. For a lot of people their "risk" profile changed significantly during that week unlike for the unvaccinated or even partially vaxxed who presumably stopped being careful a long time ago. If Omicron had hit in January, after people visited the family and the careful went back into hibernation... when even people-loving folks are willing to take the time to be a temporary homebody after gathering overload, I wonder what the slopes would look like.

All this chart really shows, IMO, is what we already know. Omicron is more infectious and vaccine-immunity evasive than other variants. You'd be better off making the case that infection-immunity is better* than vaccine-immunity at least against Omicron. However, the implication is that in order to disrupt Omicron infections you would need to do MORE than what was done before to see the same impact. Is anywhere doing more?

* Only talking infection protection. Once we add in "damage while infected" obviously vaccines have a huge advantage. I'm not sure how many people wouldn't trade a little less protection against a future variant to avoid hospitalization, death, potentially long-COVID for past and future variants.
 
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correcaminos

Well-Known Member

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
It makes a bigger difference than many would like to admit. Direct copy from the CDC website…

Adults with excess weight are at even greater risk during the COVID-19 pandemic:

See post above. It's not the only thing and seriously my friends who are totally fit are tired of thus trope
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
See post above. It's not the only thing and seriously my friends who are totally fit are tired of thus trope
300% increased risk of hospitalization according to the CDC! It’s not the only thing but it’s one of the biggest factors we have control over.

We’d all continue recommending the vaccine even if it fell to 30% effectiveness, why should advising people to be healthy to minimize risk be any less important?

PS… congrats on your weight loss, I’m currently about 15 pounds overweight and really struggling to lose it. When I was younger I could work out for a few days and lose weight now it’s an epic battle.
 
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mmascari

Well-Known Member
You can look at the raw case #'s as well: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data#casesByVaccinationStatus

88% of ages 12+ are vaccinated and 82% of 5+. 85% or cases on Jan 5 are in fully vaccinated. So at least for this day in Ontario with whatever vaccines they used, there is little preventative power in the vaccine. 67% in hospitals are fully vaccinated and 41% in ICU. So those numbers improve quite a bit if you are vaccinated, but not nearly as much as has been reported in most other parts of the world.
The note at the top of the page is a real problem for answering this question.
Due to technical difficulties, the case rate by vaccination status by age group is not available

I suspect the answer for why the vaccinated rate is so high is hiding in that age data.

As @DisneyCane posted, it says 78% of all ages are fully vaccinated. Which while good, clearly isn't high enough for Omicron, if there is a high enough to prevent cases.

However, as @MisterPenguin pointed out, once the percentage is really high the rate is going to look off. Same as I mentioned once one of the groups gets very small and few cases have a disproportionate impact.

Vaccination by age
Age Percentage of age group
80+ 100.0%
70-79 98.4%
60-69 95.0%
50-59 88.1%
40-49 87.1%
30-39 85.1%
18-29 81.5%
12-17 82.4%
5-11 2.0%

So, while it's 78% overall, it's way higher over 60 and even higher over 70. There's also less people in the population over 80 (25% of the other groups) and 70-79 about half the other groups.

If there's a wave of cases in the over 60 population, for whatever interaction reasons, that would skew the rate of vaccinated cases higher. While if cases are more prevalent in under 12, it would skew the other way.

It looks like a daily chart by vaccination status. While the cases by age chart is active/resolved since January 15 2020. This makes it much harder to compare. If I look at just Active vs the Past 14 days on the prior chart, there's 3 numbers that are clearly having an impact.

Age Active Cases
70-79 3,710
80-89 1,839
90+ 766

That's a group that's 98.4% or more vaccinated with 6,315 cases. That's going to push up the vaccinated case rate simply because they're all vaccinated.

The 20-29 group has the most active cases on the chart, followed by under 20, then 30-39 using the raw numbers. 18-29 and 30-39 are about the same size population, while under 18 is about half the size. Those are least vaccinated group, so they're still driving lots of spread.

Could have been a young unvaccinated person got infected and then visited a nursing home (all of them). Super spreader and flipped all the graphs.

I'm sure a real analysis would find something interesting.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
BC's latest:

From Dec. 28 to Jan. 3, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 16.2% of cases, and from Dec. 21 to Jan. 3, they accounted for 51.4% of hospitalizations.

Past week cases (Dec. 28 to Jan. 3) - Total 22,600

  • Not vaccinated: 3,127 (13.8%)
  • Partially vaccinated: 542 (2.4%)
  • Fully vaccinated: 18,931 (83.8%)
Past two weeks cases hospitalized (Dec. 21 to Jan. 3) - Total 173

  • Not vaccinated: 84 (48.6%)
  • Partially vaccinated: 5 (2.8%)
  • Fully vaccinated: 84 (48.6%)
Past week, cases per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Dec. 28 to Jan. 3)

  • Not vaccinated: 465.8
  • Partially vaccinated: 148.1
  • Fully vaccinated: 412.3
Past two weeks, cases hospitalized per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Dec. 21 to Jan. 3)

  • Not vaccinated: 19.6
  • Partially vaccinated: 4.3
  • Fully vaccinated: 1.8



ETA:

 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
Local hospital now has 2 1/2 floors dedicated to COVID patients (huge increase). They are cleaning out offices to prepare for surge capacity. (Note: offices don’t have bathrooms if you get one as your room). Elective surgeries canceled. nurses are offered $100/hour bonuses for overtime but they aren’t getting enough takers.


80 yo parishioner fell last night and broke leg. EMS wouldn’t take her to ER. She’s being ferried all over central NJ today by her daughter for Ct, mri, ortho, etc. (she’s a complex patient but also indomitable). This ain’t because people are flooding ers with hangnails.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
“We are pretty much at capacity”

hospital is “managing, but just barely,” at keeping up with the increased number of sick patients in the last three weeks.

“We had to treat patients in places where we normally wouldn’t, like in recovery rooms,”

In California several hospitals have set up large “surge tents”

All quotes from a Times article regarding the 2017/2018 flu season.

The sad reality is our hospitals can barely handle a bad flu season, they had no chance of keeping up with a pandemic. Will we learn and prepare for the next illness? probably not because it costs too much.
One reasons why the ERs are crowded for example are people who have symptoms of covid and or some feeling sick go to get medical attention. Some of the locals doctors in my area and so swamped with patients that to get seen is approx 1-2 weeks .
 
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Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
A Disney question regarding COVID.

Does anyone know roughly how many cast members (%) are out with COVID? Is there a known staffing shortage due to Omicron that is hitting WDW right now?

No clue on WDW but we've been told locally that businesses could see up to a third of their staff off sick at any given time in the next while due to Omicron.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
30% increased risk according to the CDC! It’s not the only thing but it’s one of the biggest factors we have control over.

We’d all continue recommending the vaccine even if it fell to 30% effectiveness, why should advising people to be healthy to minimize risk be any less important?

PS… congrats on your weight loss, I’m currently about 15 pounds overweight and really struggling to lose it. When I was younger I could work out for a few days and lose weight now it’s an epic battle.
What you missed was that my honestly fit and healthy friends dealing with long covid are tired of this. Yes it can help but it is not the only answer. Or my friends wouldn't have issues still. These are classmates of mine from HS and college. Only one long covid person was overweight. Even had bariatric surgery to help but still...

I have a few to lose again from the holidays. For me it's all about food portions really. I am still able to lose decently but it tookmme a long time to find what works. When I did it became easier.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
What you missed was that my honestly fit and healthy friends dealing with long covid are tired of this. Yes it can help but it is not the only answer. Or my friends wouldn't have issues still. These are classmates of mine from HS and college. Only one long covid person was overweight. Even had bariatric surgery to help but still...

I have a few to lose again from the holidays. For me it's all about food portions really. I am still able to lose decently but it tookmme a long time to find what works. When I did it became easier.
My formerly obese brother lost almost 100 pounds last year, he had several health issues associated with his weight and his doctor basically told him if he caught Covid he likely wouldn’t survive it.

He gave up sugar and carbs (basically became a carnivore eating primarily lean meat, chicken, fish, etc) and bought one of those exercise bikes with the fan for resistance and spent hours a day riding it at home while he worked. Pretty incredible.

As much as I’d like to lose 15 pounds I’m weak and not ready to give up sugar yet to do it.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
My formerly obese brother lost almost 100 pounds last year, he had several health issues associated with his weight and his doctor basically told him if he caught Covid he likely wouldn’t survive it.

He gave up sugar and carbs (basically became a carnivore eating primarily lean meat, chicken, fish, etc) and bought one of those exercise bikes with the fan for resistance and spent hours a day riding it at home while he worked. Pretty incredible.

As much as I’d like to lose 15 pounds I’m weak and not ready to give up sugar yet to do it.

Okay, I'm about to sound all infomercial weird...but in most cases, you don't need to cut anything out to successfully lose weight. Your mindset really has to be a lifestyle change to keep the weight off. It's hard at first, but can be done!

I gained ..... lbs :D when I quit smoking for good 8 years ago. In 2016 I joined Weight Watchers. I lost all the weight and have kept it off since then. Technically I don't even need to be a member anymore, but I like the recipes.

Basically, I just learned how to eat. How to balance treats with eating healthy. As said above, watching portion sizes is a BIG part of it. A food scale will be your best friend. Read the package of what you bought and follow the serving size. Learn to use all kinds of different spices and foods to make things taste so tasty without the bad stuff. I found out I love to cook! I also found out I hate to bake.

But have the bad stuff too! Just not all the time. :) And we walk, a lot. About 5 miles a day, 5 to 6 days a week. But I love to walk, others may find something else they love.

Good luck if you try! I know I make it sound easy and it's not, but just wanted to give a positive weight loss story.

okay, back to your regularly scheduled program.
 
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