Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Polynesia]

I think FL law enforcement were singling out drivers with NJ/NY license plates. At the end of March I saw on the news the traffic jam to enter FL from GA on I-95 was backed up for several miles during the daytime.

They were also stopping cars from Louisiana. At the airports they were meeting flights from NY, CT and NJ requiring them to self quarantine. If these people are disobeying their states stay at home orders I suspect the odds of them obeying a quarantine aren’t good. Coming from a hot spot they put others at risk. Such a shame.

 

[Horizons '83]

They were also stopping cars from Louisiana. At the airports they were meeting flights from NY, CT and NJ requiring them to self quarantine. If these people are disobeying their states stay at home orders I suspect the odds of them obeying a quarantine aren’t good. Coming from a hot spot they put others at risk. Such a shame.

I used to work for a rental car company (more years then i'd like to admit) and we would always have our cars tagged with NJ/NY plates as a preference because of the laws/cost at the time. It would be such mess now if they were going to stop Ny/Nj plates at the border. Half of them would be rentals! haha

 

[nickys]

Wasn’t a big hit, was it?

I saw the other day that wales and England may have underreported their cases/fatalities by 41%?

...some forgot to carry a zero or something?

They were only counting cases where the person died in hospital. Care homes have been badly hit, and all deaths in Care homes are now being included.

 

[nickys]

I’m totally on a different frequency here...you’re saying worldwide? I was asking about the UK

I haven’t watched your numbers that closely.

Latest figure is 18,738 deaths.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Nobody really knows for sure. Social distancing is a theory that has never been tried before. To really prove it you would have to have various groups from Wuhan style lockdown through doing nothing with similar population densities and demographics. Then the curves would need to be compared. You can't prove a result compared to a mathematical model.

I was moreso illustrating countries with somewhat extreme lockdowns. I don't think the curves would be much different if it was just social distancing/masks but without the restrictions on what business or public recreation is allowed.

With COVID-19, nobody in the world knows what the curves and mortality would have looked like if nothing was done. Well, maybe China does if they didn't destroy the data from the outbreak in Wuhan before they locked down.

Exactly why it was done. Nobody in the world would want to see that. Just letting it run wild was in no way a good choice. The models.. or the data.. or the experts for the most part agree.
Social distancing has worked. The experts agree. More importantly, the health care workers agree.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Latest figure is 18,738 deaths.

Right...not real “good” on a per capita basis

 

[George]

I agree. The numbers changed significantly in NYC when the numbers who died outside of hospitals were factored in. And when they started discovering bodies stored in nursing homes - because the local funeral homes have been overwhelmed.

These things are happening everywhere. Here's an article about a nursing home near me that has been raked over the coals in the local media. Over the last decade this home has average less than a death a month. Here's some quotes from the article -

"At least 10 people in a Carmel nursing home have died since April 1, with at least three of them confirmed to have had COVID-19 and others not tested but suspected by their families to have had it."

And this -

"Hamilton County Health Dept. records show that at least nine CHL residents have died since April 1 in addition to Loukas. All deaths occurred between April 2 and 10.

County records don’t show any deaths at the facility in March. No other county long-term care facility had more than two deaths reported so far in April as of press time.

Of the 10 deaths in April at least three were confirmed to have COVID-19, although family members of the deceased believe several other residents had it as well but likely were not tested. Only two families successfully contacted by Current said they didn’t believe their loved one had COVID-19.

“Corona virus” was only listed as the cause of death on one of the nine death certificates available as of press time. The eight other death certificates list pneumonia as a cause of death or significant contributing condition. Pneumonia is a common complication of COVID-19 in severe cases but can be caused by many other factors."

Oh, and this kind of thing seemed to be happening -

"Later that day, the family learned that Duckworth succumbed to the disease. When Pack called CHL for more information – which she said took several attempts before someone picked up the phone – another nurse told her she already knew too much."

Here's the whole article - http://youarecurrent.com/2020/04/21...mel-nursing-home-has-become-covid-19-hotspot/

The Current is just a little thing for us northern suburbs of Indy. The people who believe their family didn't die from Covid think it is because the nursing home is incapable of providing quality care without familial intervention. Sad and disheartening.

 

[Bartattack]

On of the problems with daily reported numbers in the UK so far are they’re just hospital deaths. “Just” sounds so callous.

The numbers don’t yet fully include up to date care home and at home deaths.

yeah, it's the complete opposite in Belgium. Our numbers seem very high, but they are counting every dead in hospital and carehomes (most of our deaths are in care homes btw.) and at home... even if they are suspected to be covid-19 related but not confirmed.



We now also have numbers of how many more people that died during the month of March. From March 16th there is a significant increase of deaths compared to previous health-crisis peaks like the bad flu-peak in 2018. On april 10th there were 637 covid-deaths... the previous peak during the flu season of 2018 was 467 deaths a day.

A Belgium university also published the first 'simulation' of what would have happened if we would not have had a lockdown (march 14th) (1) and if we would've lifted the restrictions too soon... april 16th (2)

 

[flynnibus]

Here is an interesting comparison model that attempts to compare the lockdown states vs. the non-lockdown states by adjusting for population density and demographics. This is not social distancing vs. not it is "safer at home" vs. not.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

While he does try to normalize across several variables... he invariably misses out on critical ones like 'starting position'. An area with almost no infections is going to show 'indifferent' to methods no matter what unless the conditions for an outbreak exist. That requires other factors not tracked in his analysis. He mentions this a bit towards the end, but kinda blows it off. It's kinda a deal breaker to talk about comparing methods of preventing spread... when you don't/can't have the same amount/type starting point.

It's why people need to use these analysis to help build understandings -- not simply make headline grabbers (like he does in the end). Comparing 'like to like' is actually pretty damn difficult when you're comparing the real world instead of laboratory conditions. That's why we have to be extra careful with the conclusions we draw from observations in real world.

Observations are good - data gathering is key. Conclusions and absolutes are extremely delicate to form...

 

[ZodIsGr8]

Just under half a million deaths from Coronavirus.

Hey Martin, I am only seeing 231,000 deaths (still very high and horrible) not the near 500,000 you are referring to. Where did you see that number from if you do not mind me asking as I got mine from WHO and CDC? If you have a better more accurate site I would be interested in reviewing it as well. Hope you are doing well and staying safe and thanks again for all you do on this site.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree. The numbers changed significantly in NYC when the numbers who died outside of hospitals were factored in. And when they started discovering bodies stored in nursing homes - because the local funeral homes have been overwhelmed.

What’s ironic is the nursing home storage dump that was found was in one of the 3 or so New Jersey Counties That are NOT densely populated...which may be why it wasn’t found out more quickly.

My joke ammo is significantly diminished if I can’t use Sussex County as a “middle of nowhere” example...

I’m really only left with Salem

 

[Incomudro]

Just my $.02 is that many of these stay at home orders are allowing people out to exercise, which is considered essential, right along with getting food. So it might therefore be extrapolated that gyms would be permitted to stay open, given that they provide an essential service (exercising). However, they are hotbeds for infection (sweat everywhere!) so they specifically state they are not considered essential.

There is a local fireman here in NJ is who is attempting to get the state to allow gyms to open for first responders as physical fitness is an asset to the job.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

New color coding system here in PA. Under the first 2 phases, gyms and theaters to remain closed whil restaurants still must stick to online ordering. All this while watching the data and consulting with experts. Smart approach in my opinion. https://patch.com/pennsylvania/bens...akingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert

 

[fradz]

The numbers don’t yet fully include up to date care home and at home deaths.

In Belgium we are counting everything. And every death in care-home is considered Covid19 (without testing). Thus officially, we are at 6.490 deaths right now, for a country of 11M people... We probably are the only country in the world overstating our figures.

 

[marni1971]

Hey Martin, I am only seeing 231,000 deaths (still very high and horrible) not the near 500,000 you are referring to. Where did you see that number from if you do not mind me asking as I got mine from WHO and CDC? If you have a better more accurate site I would be interested in reviewing it as well. Hope you are doing well and staying safe and thanks again for all you do on this site.

This one actually pitches it slightly above half a million

Coronavirus: UK changes course amid death toll fears

Ministers were warned hundreds of thousands of people in the UK would die without stronger measures.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Lilofan]

There is a local fireman here in NJ is who is attempting to get the state to allow gyms to open for first responders as physical fitness is an asset to the job.

In Florida, at taxpayer expense there are portable gyms in the firehouses for the firemen to work out. In NJ, one of the highest property taxes in the USA, they don't have this type of set up?

 

[Mav]

In Belgium we are counting everything. And every death in care-home is considered Covid19 (without testing). Thus officially, we are at 6.490 deaths right now, for a country of 11M people... We probably are the only country in the world overstating our figures.

Indeed. Out of the +- 150 deaths in retirement homes yesterday, only 13% were certain to be due to Covid19-related issues. That means about 125 out of those 150 might not be related to the virus.

Over an entire two weeks, this accumulates very fast and might give a wrong picture.

 

[Incomudro]

In Florida, at taxpayer expense there are portable gyms in the firehouses for the firemen to work out. In NJ, one of the highest property taxes in the USA, they don't have this type of set up?

It's certainly possible that some firehouses have their on gym equipment, though I don't know if they are at taxpayer expense.

 

[Rider]

Nobody really knows for sure. Social distancing is a theory that has never been tried before. To really prove it you would have to have various groups from Wuhan style lockdown through doing nothing with similar population densities and demographics. Then the curves would need to be compared. You can't prove a result compared to a mathematical model.

I was moreso illustrating countries with somewhat extreme lockdowns. I don't think the curves would be much different if it was just social distancing/masks but without the restrictions on what business or public recreation is allowed.

Social Distancing was used during the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918. Cities that did more social distancing (earlier and longer) had lower death rates.

How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu

Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Relaxing of social distancing (and international travel of troops returning From Europe) led to a more deadly second wave:

Did Lack of Social Distancing in 1918 Pandemic Cause More Deaths Than WWI?

A viral meme about the "Spanish flu" pandemic gets some general points right, but the presented timeline is inaccurate.

www.snopes.com

 

[JohnD]

So New York and New Jersey can relax social distancing sooner than Florida? I'm not buying that. I'm not arguing that Florida should be moved up but it seems that, at a minimum, NY and NJ should be in the same date range as FL. The NYC metro area has almost half of all cases in the U.S.

Latest IHME COVID-19 model pushes easing of social distancing restrictions for Florida further into June

Forecasting the containment of the virus is a fluid situation, and timelines have already moved 14 days in just the last few days.

www.wdwmagic.com