Giss Neric
Well-Known Member
Anyone here experiencing cabin fever already? I think they will extend the shelter in place orders for one more month.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Current coronavirus times where most are staying at home. When I drove to the market on the empty streets to get some groceries, there must have been a line of cars approx 60 in line that snaked down the street waiting in line for their Starbucks fix at the drive thru. Addicted to Starbucks or just too much time on their hands.. One disrespectful thing I noticed is when pushing my shopping cart to my car after shopping at the supermarket, customers leave their used gloves and used antiseptic wipes and just litter them all over the parking lot area. One aspect of most Disney guests that I see and I am the same, we all take pride in keeping the parks clean so we clean up after ourselves.
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lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Do some actual research. Location based information is requested by the government and handed over all the time. The Apple/Google proposal is not location based, does not mention any persons and is an opt-in system. The cheating spouse you are concerned about (odd choice) has nothing revealed except exposure to an infected person, not where the exposure occurred or by whom because the system knows neither piece of information.
Exactly. That's the whole reason for flattening the curve.
phillip9698
Well-Known Member
The police using cell phone pings to track people's movements is very common.
"A person who died at home in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 was infected with the coronavirus at the time of death, a stunning discovery that makes that individual the first recorded COVID-19 fatality in the United States, according to autopsy results released by public health officials late Tuesday. That death — three weeks before the first fatality was reported in the U.S., in Washington state on Feb. 28 — adds to increasing evidence that the virus was in the country far earlier than once thought."
www.sfchronicle.com
Coronavirus live updates: Bay Area sees plunge in COVID-19 deaths
President Joe Biden is reportedly preparing to announce that Merck will help Johnson...
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
You are stating a lot of things that are unproven. For the business margin issue, there needs to be some kind of assistance plan to make up the difference in revenue. That would be cheaper for the government than paying all the unemployment.
The 6 foot thing is a lot more scientifically sound than you make it out to be. The entire world is using that recommendation (2 meters in metric countries). You are also talking about completely uncovered sneezes and coughs. The droplets fall to the ground relatively quickly which is how they came up with the 6 foot thing. A ceiling fan is likely to force them down faster and how many places have AC that is like being in a wind tunnel like you describe?
For the concession issue, first what does hand to mouth have to do with anything? Wash your hands or use sanitizer before eating. Like with restaurants there would have to be some kind of assistance to make up for lost revenue due to the reduced capacity or not selling concessions.
Nothing outside of a true lockdown where nobody can leave their residence for any reason for probably a month unless they are wearing full PPE would "keep people safe."
We need to come to terms with the fact that nothing, including the current "safer at home" orders is going to prevent further spread of the virus and more deaths. We also need to come to terms with the fact that doing the current measures is not a sustainable strategy and does lead to some level of death as well.
Studies show that the majority of spread happens inside the home or in workplaces with people close together in confined spaces for prolonged periods of time. I believe these studies because how else can you explain the continued spread in Italy and Spain long after the lockdowns were started? The curves in neither country indicate a rapid decline in new daily cases.
I haven't had time to analyze every single outbreak in the world but from a 40,000 foot view, the areas with major outbreaks seem to have a few things in common. The areas are densely populated, have relatively high usage of mass transit and, possibly most importantly have more compact/dense living spaces, many times with multi generational households.
In the more rural areas of the US, the major outbreaks seem to happen in nursing homes and meat packing plants, not a among customers at Walmart. Sure there will be some spread at Walmart and other businesses which provide seeds for the nursing homes and meat packing plants but if you screened the people entering nursing homes and dense workplaces like meat packing plants you would pretty much eliminate the outbreaks in those areas.
The stated goal of all of these measures was to flatten the curve and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, not to "keep people safe." Outside of the NYC metro area and a few select metro areas there hasn't really been an issue. Even in Florida, outside of Miami-Dade (and maybe Broward) there isn't really an issue anymore. In the last week, Miami-Dade accounts for 37% of all daily new cases in Florida while only representing 12.6% of the population of Florida.
As to how this relates to WDW, WDW was absolutely packed until the closure on 3/15. There were clearly a large number of people already infected at that point but the cases were not known due to either being asymptomatic, mild or the testing capacity was not adequate at the time. However, I have seen no report of a significant number of cases directly tied back to WDW in mid March. As with a rural Walmart, I'm sure there was some spread that happened, it just doesn't appear that there was what would be considered an "outbreak" at WDW.
My sense is that if you eliminated the densely packed, long duration queues by using some kind of virtual queue system (either all FP+ or some kind of boarding group system that worked like the old FP system for standby), suspended parades and fireworks, encouraged hand washing/hand sanitizer and put into place enhanced sanitizing of surfaces, there would be a relatively small amount of virus spread at WDW. The spread would very likely be at a low enough level that anybody under age 65 and without a serious risk factor could visit WDW without having a significantly higher chance of dying as a result of the visit than the chance of dying from some other cause in the same period of time.
I fully expect the response that the small number of low risk people that get infected at WDW can then spread the virus to high risk people when they get home. First, the same low risk people can get infected at the grocery store. Second, if you can't stay away from high risk people for 14 days after returning from WDW then don't go to WDW. Let's not go to the "six degrees of separation scenario" of somebody getting infected at WDW because they came into contact with somebody from a different area from where they live and then returning to the area where they live and going grocery shopping and spreading it to somebody in the grocery store. Assuming there are social distancing and sanitary measures at the grocery store (or other location) in the home area, the prevalence of this type of spread due to visiting WDW is going to be very low.
Notice I didn't say that the risk is zero. I accept the fact that with WDW open there will be some number of people infected that wouldn't have been infected if it remained closed. I believe that if WDW opened with some modification to the operation, the benefits of both the enjoyment of the guests and employment of the CMs would FAR outweigh the detrimental effect of the unlucky people that end up with a serious illness or death due to WDW operating. People in the high risk groups can choose to stay away from WDW (or any other public place) to minimize the risk that they get sick although they should have the right to take the risk if they want to.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The 6 feet (2 meter to be technical) was for people that came into contact with the person that was on the flight with the person who turned out to be a confirmed infection. I don't know what distance was used for somebody to be considered being near the infected person on the plane.
The air on a plane is not the petri dish that it is perceived to be. The air flow is predominantly ceiling to floor. The cabin air intake is a where the floor meets the sidewall. The output vents are on the ceiling. There is obviously some level of front to back movement but a high concentration of virus particles does not move from row 10 to row 30. The recirculated portion of the air goes through a HEPA filter.
Polynesia
Well-Known Member
To get to that point the infection occurred several weeks before, which puts it in to early or middle of January. I firmly believe that’s why Florida peaked in early April. The virus was here much earlier than first thought and was spreading under the radar so to speak."A person who died at home in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 was infected with the coronavirus at the time of death, a stunning discovery that makes that individual the first recorded COVID-19 fatality in the United States, according to autopsy results released by public health officials late Tuesday. That death — three weeks before the first fatality was reported in the U.S., in Washington state on Feb. 28 — adds to increasing evidence that the virus was in the country far earlier than once thought."
Coronavirus live updates: Bay Area sees plunge in COVID-19 deaths
President Joe Biden is reportedly preparing to announce that Merck will help Johnson...
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
"A person who died at home in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 was infected with the coronavirus at the time of death, a stunning discovery that makes that individual the first recorded COVID-19 fatality in the United States, according to autopsy results released by public health officials late Tuesday. That death — three weeks before the first fatality was reported in the U.S., in Washington state on Feb. 28 — adds to increasing evidence that the virus was in the country far earlier than once thought."
Coronavirus live updates: Bay Area sees plunge in COVID-19 deaths
President Joe Biden is reportedly preparing to announce that Merck will help Johnson...
This is not shocking in the least bit. With the amount of people of Chinese decent in California and the resulting level travel between the two places it would have been nearly impossible for the infection to not have spread from China to California shortly after the outbreak began in Wuhan, at a time when China didn't even admit to there being an outbreak with human to human spread.
This confirmation furthers my belief that the USA is a lot further into the outbreak curve than it appears. We know that the deaths lag the infection. The fact that the peak of deaths didn't lag the peak of infections by much, if at all, indicates that the peak of infections happened before the testing capacity was high enough to account for it.
Looking at the data for Florida, the peak in daily cases happened around 4/3 but the peak in deaths happened on 4/6 and 4/7. That just isn't enough lag which indicates that the real peak in cases happened in mid to late March and started to decrease before the essential business closures and safer at home orders were put in place. The testing capacity just wan't high enough to see it.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
How common do you think it is?
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
"A person who died at home in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 was infected with the coronavirus at the time of death, a stunning discovery that makes that individual the first recorded COVID-19 fatality in the United States, according to autopsy results released by public health officials late Tuesday. That death — three weeks before the first fatality was reported in the U.S., in Washington state on Feb. 28 — adds to increasing evidence that the virus was in the country far earlier than once thought."
Coronavirus live updates: Bay Area sees plunge in COVID-19 deaths
President Joe Biden is reportedly preparing to announce that Merck will help Johnson...
Unfortunately, the article on the death is behind a paywall. I'm curious as to the details - they are just discovering cause of death after 2.5 months?
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
"A person who died at home in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 was infected with the coronavirus at the time of death, a stunning discovery that makes that individual the first recorded COVID-19 fatality in the United States, according to autopsy results released by public health officials late Tuesday. That death — three weeks before the first fatality was reported in the U.S., in Washington state on Feb. 28 — adds to increasing evidence that the virus was in the country far earlier than once thought."
Coronavirus live updates: Bay Area sees plunge in COVID-19 deaths
President Joe Biden is reportedly preparing to announce that Merck will help Johnson...
I think COVID was in the US as far back as Nov. we just didn’t know what it was. Just my opinion.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
How Police Departments Try to Force Google to Hand Over Data on Anyone Near a Crime Scene
Privacy advocates argue it violates the Fourth Amendment.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I made this exaggerated image to illustrate this very point and why my gut says we are really much further into the outbreak curve. We only have visibility based on the testing that was/is available. I have no idea what the time scale should be or what the exact shape is. In reality the testing capacity is still increasing so we'll be able to see the decline sooner.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Here's another report on the earlier cases: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
That doesn't like it would be very effective if they're only approaching Google...wonder if they ask Apple for the same info.How Police Departments Try to Force Google to Hand Over Data on Anyone Near a Crime Scene
Privacy advocates argue it violates the Fourth Amendment.slate.com
Chip Chipperson
Well-Known Member
I found this one without a paywall. Basically, the only testing available at that time was from the CDC and only if the patient had traveled to China recently. These people were tests after they died and the results were just received yesterday (although I'm not sure what took so long to get the results back unless they didn't send the samples to be tested right away).
California county may have traced earliest US coronavirus deaths
California officials have discovered what are possibly the earliest known coronavirus deaths in the United States.
www.foxnews.com
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