Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[peter11435]

No they are staying home because they can keep theirs Kids safe. Safety measures are worthless.... with this virus as so many can have it with no symptoms.

And yet the park down the road from my house is filled with kids and families everyday playing on the playground, basketball, tennis, etc. All with no masks, safety measures, temperature checks or social distancing. This is at a park that is officially closed with gates closed and closed signs posted. Imagine how many people would be there if people were told they were allowed to go.

Just to clarify my family does not visit the park currently.

 

[Josh Hendy]

We cannot dismiss the possibility that Disney will ask for federal bailout once it becomes clear that the parks will likely be closed for the whole year.

I'm pretty sure they have already received a bailout, when they floated $6 B in corporate bonds a day or so before the govt announced that it would start buying up corporate debt.

If it's true that Disney is burning 30 million in cash per day, that would keep them going for about 6 months.

I speculate that making this bond issue look palatable is the reason why Iger was suddenly put back in the spotlight as "taking charge again".

 

[peter11435]

Have you ever ran a business? When you don’t know if you are going to be able to pay next weeks bills because revenue is down 85 percent or more and you have already burned through you back up cash covering last weeks payroll. What are you to do?

keep paying everyone and keeping them employees as you wait for the economy to open back up?

NO YOU HABE TO MAKE HARD DECISIONS AND LAY OFF PEOPLE. AS YOU HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE.

THEN WHEN YOU GET A LOAN IF YOU GET A LOAN AND YOU TEY TO HIRE PEOPLE BACK THEY SAY NO... AS THEY ARE MAKING MIRE SITTING ON COACH.

You are missing the point. In this scenario you don’t need to make that decision. If the government had handled this correctly they would have funded your payroll so you weren’t faced with that hard decision. You take care of the business and the government takes care of your payroll.

Ultimately thats what’s going to happen. The government will be taking care of your employees through unemployment payouts. But it could be done much cheaper and more efficiently if done direct though the employers rather than the millions of employees.

If we look at Disney for example. Let’s say those 70k cast members are furloughed. The government now needs to process and verify 70k applications and set up direct deposits to 70k accounts. At $875 per week the government will be spending over $61 million per week. Not even accounting for the cost associated with the process. Instead the government could work directly with Disney. Disney already has access to those 70k cast members accounts and nothing needs to be set up and processed. The government makes one transaction instead of 70k. The cast get paid there normal amounts. Even if we assume that’s an average of $500 per week. That’s only $35 million. So the government would have saved over $26 million per week.

 

[gmajew]

You are missing the point. In this scenario you don’t need to make that decision. If the government had handled this correctly they would have funded your payroll so you weren’t faced with that hard decision. You take care of the business and the government takes care of your payroll.

Ultimately thats what’s going to happen. The government will be taking care of your employees through unemployment payouts. But it could be done much cheaper and more efficiently if done direct though the employers rather than the millions of employees.

If we look at Disney for example. Let’s say those 70k cast members are furloughed. The government now needs to process and verify 70k applications and set up direct deposits to 70k accounts. At $875 per week the government will be spending over $61 million per week. Not even accounting for the cost associated with the process. Instead the government could work directly with Disney. Disney already has access to those 70k cast members accounts and nothing needs to be set up and processed. The government makes one transaction instead of 70k. The cast get paid there normal amounts. Even if we assume that’s an average of $500 per week. That’s only $35 million. So the government would have saved over $26 million per week.

Again most business had to make these decisions before the government even Started to talk about PPP loans etc.

what your saying is great if the world worked that way but it does not. The a stage small business restaurant had days after they were told to shut or traffic dropped to make a decision on how to survive.

Disney size companies sure had time to see what happened but they have not been bailed out yet. They also have to do what they need to as this is no fault of their own.

 

[peter11435]

Again most business had to make these decisions before the government even Started to talk about PPP loans etc.

what your saying is great if the world worked that way but it does not. The a stage small business restaurant had days after they were told to shut or traffic dropped to make a decision on how to survive.

Disney size companies sure had time to see what happened but they have not been bailed out yet. They also have to do what they need to as this is no fault of their own.

Correct. What I’m saying is how things could and should have been handled if our government (not political, this applies to all) was not so incompetent.

 

[gmajew]

Correct. What I’m saying is how things could and should have been handled if our government (not political, this applies to all) was not so incompetent.

But government and real life does not happen that way.... Decisions have to be made long before policies to protect those workers can ever be discussed.

You cannot manage the unknown and this was an unknown. That the end-zone keeps moving

 

[Slpy3270]

I speculate that making this bond issue look palatable is the reason why Iger was suddenly put back in the spotlight as "taking charge again".

He's always been in charge despite vacating as CEO. Executive Chairman differs from Chairman of the Board in that the Chairman still has considerable say over the direction and operations of the company.

 

[flynnibus]

The government would easily know if the money wasn’t being used properly. If any employee was laid off, furloughed, or wasn’t being properly paid, that employee would report that.

Except.. what if I got a $100 million grant... but only spent $50 million on payroll...

 

[peter11435]

Except.. what if I got a $100 million grant... but only spent $50 million on payroll...

That type of abuse would be easily traceable. The IRS knowS exactly what your payroll is.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm pretty sure they have already received a bailout, when they floated $6 B in corporate bonds a day or so before the govt announced that it would start buying up corporate debt.

If it's true that Disney is burning 30 million in cash per day, that would keep them going for about 6 months.

I speculate that making this bond issue look palatable is the reason why Iger was suddenly put back in the spotlight as "taking charge again".

In general large corporations right now can borrow money at very attractive rates. It makes perfect sense for Disney to go out and borrow a little extra short term cash at those rates. They also went out and added a revolver they can draw down if/when they run short on cash. I would not be surprised to see them tap the revolver and/or borrow more money in the next 6 months. In times like this the first responsibility of a good CFO is to ensure there’s enough liquidity to weather the storm.

The next big question is will TWDC take a large impairment on their cruise ships this quarter? It would just be an accounting charge and have no impact on cash but if they feel the cruise industry is permanently impacted it’s possible they will need to impair those assets. I don’t think the parks would be impacted because the assets have long lives so there’s plenty of time to get the cash flows back up, but who knows.

 

[flynnibus]

That type of abuse would be easily traceable. The IRS knowS exactly what your payroll is.

But now you're back to this big government machine working across departments to try to correlate all this data, etc.

Simple truth is.. they did what you said for small businesses. They intentionally excluded large businesses... its not more efficient, but they also expected those bigger companies to be far more varied in what would be done, and then it's all political on who gets funds, who doesn't, etc. The 'only small businesses' get the grants was a cleaner way to get things through the system.

Truth is... the unemployment system is just so impractical in so many ways... this whole thing just exposes the problems. Maybe we end up on something better on the other side because of it...

 

[5thGenTexan]

I can assure you I would not go to a theme park if temp checks were mandatory at the gate. Not out of fear, but its not a hassle I am willing to deal with. I am also the sort of person that will pull up to a fast food joint and leave because I am not going to sit and wait in the line. At DLR 3 years ago we decided the work that needed to put in to watch a parade was not worth the payoff. World of Color was an absolute nightmare for me.. waiting, then being aloud in the viewing area and then waiting some more. Heck, I won't even eat in a restaurant anymore if the wait is going to be more than 15 minutes.

Staying home is not really impacting me much, We haven't even had a vacation since 2017 and frankly I can sit here and hang out at the house till the asteroid comes and we have a real apocalypse. Maybe not a lot of people to my degree, but I do think there is a sizable amount of the population outside of the Disney die hard people that won't tolerate the hassle of a medical evaluation just to go ride some rides.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

something I just thought of.... Disney has always relied on guests telling friends about the good experiences. If everyone goes back home and says “half the rides were closed, you couldn’t get into any of the restaurants, no parades, no fireworks, had to get a temperature check to even walk in” how many people are going to book a trip after hearing all of that?

 

[peter11435]

But government and real life does not happen that way.... Decisions have to be made long before policies to protect those workers can ever be discussed.

You cannot manage the unknown and this was an unknown. That the end-zone keeps moving

The fact that government can’t function efficiently and properly should be viewed as a flaw not an excuse.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It is taking all my strength to stay strong and not disappoint TheMom and jump into politics right now after the last few days. Think I may venture to the sub forums for a bit.

 

[DisneyCane]

Latest numbers for Florida reported in the last 24 hours - 609 new reported cases, with a rather large spike in deaths up by 72.

View attachment 463501

I'll be interested to see the report tomorrow that details the number of tests run today. I've been optimistic that Florida's curve flattened last week but an almost 50% drop in new cases from yesterday to today seems too good to be true. I hope it is and continues but I didn't expect such a large drop that fast.

 

[LittleBuford]

Some people will be against it because of privacy issues. Probably anyone scared of the temperature check would be scared to go to WDW even without it. Many people will be reluctant to go anywhere too far from their homes for a little while after things open up. It’s one thing to be in a grocery store or even a restaurant for an hour but going for a number of days to WDW is a much bigger step.

Temperature checks and face masks represent more real-world anxiety than I can handle in the Most Magical Place on Earth. While some may be itching to return, I’m going to sit this out until such time that I can jump back into the fantasy without reminders of this awful crisis.

 

[Josh Hendy]

He's always been in charge despite vacating as CEO. Executive Chairman differs from Chairman of the Board in that the Chairman still has considerable say over the direction and operations of the company.

No doubt. But it seemed like they made a special effort (*cough* planted a news story) in order to make it look like he's taking back some of the control he supposedly gave up to Chapek. I imagine that the bankers who helped arrange for the bond issue recommended doing that. If they were smarter and not kind of stumbling around I'd call it a flea flicker

 

[GoofGoof]

Temperature checks and face masks represent more real-world anxiety than I can handle in the Most Magical Place on Earth. While some may be itching to return, I’m going to sit this out until such time that I can jump back into the fantasy without reminders of this awful crisis.

I don’t think you will be alone. Attendance will be down for a while. I just hope these Harvard guys are wrong and we don’t have to continue some form of social distancing through 2022

https://news.yahoo.com/repeated-bouts-social-distancing-may-needed-until-2022-200006162.html

 

[DisneyCane]

I think you are missing some key points. In China and S. Korea, if you failed the temp check you weren't just denied entry, you were expected to go into self-isolation (not go back to your hotel room and try again the next day, or head off to another venue that wasn't doing temp. checks). If you followed the Asian model, failing a temp check at the Park gate could exclude you from your hotel room and from your travel back to your home. If you couldn't get back home to isolate, you might be put in a specified isolation facility. I can't see the U.S. doing this, so temp checks at Disney are unlikely to achieve a great deal.

Since the earlier days, testing in other countries has shown that you can pass a temp check and still have the virus -- and more importantly can be spreading the infection because you are asymptomatic but still contagious. The wearing a face mask is primarily intended to protect everyone else from these asymptomatic spreaders of the disease. not protect you from others. Your "discretionary use" when it suits you does not protect others from the risk that you might pose.

Also in China things like this are done:

A person travels on a plane and somebody sitting near them tests positive a few days later. The traveler is contacted and tells the health authorities who they have been within 2 meters of since getting off the plane. Every one of those people is then put into a mandatory 14 day quarantine where they are not allowed to leave their residence.

I have left details out on purpose but this is something that I know happened in the past few weeks in Beijing.

That is a level of contact tracing that won't happen in the USA. This wasn't even direct contacts of a known positive case.

I have no idea why they couldn't just test the contacts even if they had to do it daily. Maybe China doesn't have the test capacity.