Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Stripes]

There is no doubt in my mind the parks aren’t opening May. After yesterday, I’m not sure why anyone would think otherwise.

I expect a June 1st reopening. I don’t think a reopening date sometime in May is impossible though. Things can change a lot in a month’s time, for the good and the bad. The current Florida projection suggests they’ll be near the bottom of their curve by the end of May.

 

[Lilofan]

Update- I don’t know if they did the official union announcement yet but my husband’s should be effective the 18th as well. They said they’re fighting for health care etc as well as petitioning the governor to fix the broken system before 77,000 more people have to flood the system.

The union is fighting for health care? The same health care that Disney advised all the salaried and non union cast impacted would keep while furloghed? When the union cast get furloughed it is no shocker that they would retain the same health care. Does not look like much of a fight. If the union was looking out in the cast best interest, they should be fighting for cast reinstatement of their roles when the parks and resorts re-open. That will be a challenge because when all areas are not operational, less staffing is needed. Unions are a business too and if some union members don't all get recalled back that's less union dues the union is collecting.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I expect a June 1st reopening. I don’t think a reopening date sometime in May is impossible though. Things can change a lot in a month’s time, for the good and the bad. The current Florida projection suggests they’ll be near the bottom of their curve by the end of May.

to open by June 1st wouldnt they have to rehire everyone, retrain, re-inspect, restock food, clean, etc several weeks beforehand?

I wish it would happen because I have a trip scheduled where I checkin at Bay Lake May 31st and I’m not feeling very optimistic things will be open and if they are not normal by any stretch. I am hopeful however but I’m having a hard time thinking it’ll happen

 

[esskay]

I expect a June 1st reopening. I don’t think a reopening date sometime in May is impossible though. Things can change a lot in a month’s time, for the good and the bad. The current Florida projection suggests they’ll be near the bottom of their curve by the end of May.

The bigger issue will be how they reopen.

As soon as they open people will come from outside of Florida. You then have the second wave quicker than other areas, and Florida goes into lockdown again.

From the way things are with this thing it wont be a case of 'cool, numbers are down - its done' it'll be open for a bit, then lockdown again then open for a bit and lockdown, otherwise this whole near global lockdown ends up being pointless.

(Also wouldn't place any bets on a June opening personally but who know whats going to happen)

 

[dhslxop]

The union is fighting for health care? The same health care that Disney advised all the salaried and non union cast impacted would keep while furloghed? When the union cast get furloughed it is no shocker that they would retain the same health care. Does not look like much of a fight. If the union was looking out in the cast best interest, they should be fighting for cast reinstatement of their roles when the parks and resorts re-open. That will be a challenge because when all areas are not operational, less staffing is needed. Unions are a business too and if some union members don't all get recalled back that's less union dues the union is collecting.

The thing to remember is that the decisions that they are negotiating are based on language that is and, more importantly, is NOT included in the contract. The Union doesn't want to be in a position where something is "not" included in the contract and Disney decides not to honor it for Union-role CMs. The contract some very specific language, and the Union wants to make sure that regardless of how long this lasts CMs are protected.

 

[mdcpr]

So if I understand the logic, it is highly likely that there are undetected outbreaks that aren't causing large scale problems so therefore it is critical to implement lockdowns to prevent problems that aren't happening even though the outbreaks are already happening?

I still honestly wonder how much this disease would have been noticed if people thought it was a particularly virulent strain of the flu. I also wonder if we are actually much further into the curve than reported.

I'm really looking forward to availability of antibody testing, hopefully within a month, to figure out what percentage of people already have had COVID-19 and we're either asymptomatic or thought it was a cold or flu.

There was a blood drive somewhere in Italy within the past few days and over 60% of a sample of donors tested positive even though they had no symptoms and have been under lockdown since March 10th. Those are active infections so logic would say that a large percentage of the negatives would have a positive antibody test.

With the amount of people dying on a daily basis, someone would have picked up that this was worst than a bad case of the flu.

 

[DisneyCane]

The bigger issue will be how they reopen.

As soon as they open people will come from outside of Florida. You then have the second wave quicker than other areas, and Florida goes into lockdown again.

From the way things are with this thing it wont be a case of 'cool, numbers are down - its done' it'll be open for a bit, then lockdown again then open for a bit and lockdown, otherwise this whole near global lockdown ends up being pointless.

(Also wouldn't place any bets on a June opening personally but who know whats going to happen)

What is interesting is that the outbreak around WDW is not to the same level as Southeast Florida. Orange and Osceola combined have fewer cases than Palm Beach. The positive test percentage is a lot lower than Palm Beach.

You would think that all the CMs (and whatever they call the employees at Universal/Sea World) coming into contact with all the travelers from around the world would have seeded the area with far more cases than Palm Beach county. I'm sure there were just as many, if not more, travelers from New York/New Jersey in central FL as there were in Palm Beach county.

I guess it goes back to the anecdotal evidence that CMs were not infected at the rate that people would expect. Perhaps that provides some clues about how the virus spreads?

 

[DisneyCane]

With the amount of people dying on a daily basis, someone would have picked up that this was worst than a bad case of the flu.

In NY/NJ they would have noticed at this point. The rest of the country I'm not so sure as of yet. Especially with so many of the early deaths being at nursing homes.

 

[Lilofan]

The thing to remember is that the decisions that they are negotiating are based on language that is and, more importantly, is NOT included in the contract. The Union doesn't want to be in a position where something is "not" included in the contract and Disney decides not to honor it for Union-role CMs. The contract some very specific language, and the Union wants to make sure that regardless of how long this lasts CMs are protected.

In another thread " Disney start furloughs after April 19, " a member posted something to note on cast per the union contract only allows up to 30 days in a furlough situation. A topic surely both parties to discuss if WDW is closed through the summer.

 

[Epcotfan21]

IHME Model now projecting 60k deaths in the US and peak deaths in 4 days. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[Polynesia]

IHME Model now projecting 60k deaths in the US and peak deaths in 4 days. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Thank you for the update. I heard rumors that the numbers first projected were too high. Florida still peaks on April 21 but with much lower numbers. Every life is precious and I pray each day for everyone to get through this and for those that have lost loved ones. We have to continue doing what we’re doing to keep the numbers going down hopefully.

 

[larryz]

But not this one??

View attachment 461626

 

[Seanual757]

I expect a June 1st reopening. I don’t think a reopening date sometime in May is impossible though. Things can change a lot in a month’s time, for the good and the bad. The current Florida projection suggests they’ll be near the bottom of their curve by the end of May.

Yes was I posted yesterday believe me Disney management are working on a plan to open June 1 as well as a later date they are working on how and what to open and how to handle social distancing.

55 Days until June 1 (In Florida we are 16 days into the Stay at Home allot can happen in 55 days good or bad)

Again When Disney opens (June, July, August, ect….) it’s going to be in phases and limited capacity from restaurants to the parks. The State of Florida is on a Stay at Home until 4/30/20

Again my prediction because air travel has been crippled nobody from overseas is going to be flying into the US for the foreseeable future. Our Governor (Florida) is stopping ALL vehicles entering Florida from NY, NJ, and other states. Many other states are still in a “Stay at Home”. This is the perfect time to test and prepare how to operate at reduced levels and distancing in lines for rides.

(How can this work at Disney we are already doing this around the country from Take out to going to the grocery store, plus we are talking about Disney they can make anything work)

Mid May time frame

-Disney can set up all of the hand washing stations at each park

-Setup hand sanitizing devices at the resorts and parks

-Train employees for cleaning

-Run mock testing of lines for rides at parks (with employees)

-Resorts will open 1st

- Quick service meals only to start, all tables spaced out at each dining establishment.

-Followed by the parks (I still believe parks will open to resorts guests staying on property only for the 1st 7-21 days)

(Why this gives Disney the chance to see how limited guests works how to organize social distancing at the parks how to operate rides with reduced capacity)

-Open the parks to pass holders require them to book fast passes to limit the numbers and lines.

-Finally open the parks to ticket holders and day guests late summer.

The president and governor are hell bent on getting the country up and going at any sign things are improving.

 

[Polynesia]

Yes was I posted yesterday believe me Disney management are working on a plan to open June 1 as well as a later date they are working on how and what to open and how to handle social distancing.

55 Days until June 1 (In Florida we are 16 days into the Stay at Home allot can happen in 55 days good or bad)

Again When Disney opens (June, July, August, ect….) it’s going to be in phases and limited capacity from restaurants to the parks. The State of Florida is on a Stay at Home until 4/30/20

Again my prediction because air travel has been crippled nobody from overseas is going to be flying into the US for the foreseeable future. Our Governor (Florida) is stopping ALL vehicles entering Florida from NY, NJ, and other states. Many other states are still in a “Stay at Home”. This is the perfect time to test and prepare how to operate at reduced levels and distancing in lines for rides.

(How can this work at Disney we are already doing this around the country from Take out to going to the grocery store, plus we are talking about Disney they can make anything work)

Mid May time frame

-Disney can set up all of the hand washing stations at each park

-Setup hand sanitizing devices at the resorts and parks

-Train employees for cleaning

-Run mock testing of lines for rides at parks (with employees)

-Resorts will open 1st

- Quick service meals only to start, all tables spaced out at each dining establishment.

-Followed by the parks (I still believe parks will open to resorts guests staying on property only for the 1st 7-21 days)

(Why this gives Disney the chance to see how limited guests works how to organize social distancing at the parks how to operate rides with reduced capacity)

-Open the parks to pass holders require them to book fast passes to limit the numbers and lines.

-Finally open the parks to ticket holders and day guests late summer.

The president and governor are hell bent on getting the country up and going at any sign things are improving.

Your timeline is very realistic and thought out. I can’t disagree with anything you’ve said. It’s all very plausible. The only question I have is whether fast passes will still be used. You wouldn’t want guests waiting in a standby line for long periods. Maybe they’ll go to all fast passes?

 

[Seanual757]

Your timeline is very realistic and thought out. I can’t disagree with anything you’ve said. It’s all very plausible. The only question I have is whether fast passes will still be used. You wouldn’t want guests waiting in a standby line for long periods. Maybe they’ll go to all fast passes?

I believe the will uses fast passes and queues for guests.

Let's face it I believe attendance will be down as much at 50 + % for the rest of the year unless this thing just goes away and the country opens for business.

The ones who will need to be trained will be the passholders we expect to just go when we want and the new norm is we may not be able to at the start.

Disney wants guests back but they also want to be safe both can be done for everyone.

 

[Angel Ariel]

99.8 isn’t considered a fever.

and let’s be clear —- no system is perfect. But perfection can’t be the enemy of the good. Temperature checks won’t eliminate 90%-100% of transmission.

but if it reduces transmission by 25%...
and mandatory masks reduce it by another 25%..
and touchless transactions reduce it by another 10%..
and handwashing stations reduce it by another 10%....

then you get down to a point where “reasonable “ steps have been taken and you can re-open.

Again, you missed my point. 99.5-99.8 is Her resting temp - what her body is when it as at rest. It can easily be 100.4 just from running around or being a little dehydrated - i know because i have had to deal with her school multiple times on this issue because of their 100.4 threshold. An elevated resting temp means the threshold of calling something a fever for her isn’t 100.4, as i detailed last night.

Anyway, my overall point is that there are medical conditions that result in poor temperature regulation - meaning someone, like my daughter, can have what other would consider a fever - 100.4 - and yet not be sick or infectious at all (again, as determined by medical professionals). So how
Does disney handle that, given their own statements on their website of not requiring proof of medical conditions due to legal restrictions of doing so? How would a child like mine, whose fever threshold is higher, get past these temperatute scans without requiring medical documentation, and if the answer is they can’t, then how does disney suddenly go from saying there are legal restrictions on them asking for proof of medical conditions to then requiring it?

 

[Lilofan]

I believe the will uses fast passes and queues for guests.

Let's face it I believe attendance will be down as much at 50 + % for the rest of the year unless this thing just goes away and the country opens for business.

The ones who will need to be trained will be the passholders we expect to just go when we want and the new norm is we may not be able to at the start.

Disney wants guests back but they also want to be safe both can be done for everyone.

If your belief is attendance will be down as much as 50%, and your idea of training employees for cleaning, this will only impact the selected crews that are actually going to be called back to work.

 

[Kevin_W]

IHME Model now projecting 60k deaths in the US and peak deaths in 4 days. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

That's another 35% decrease in predicted hospitalizations days after they just reduced the number by 46% in their model. Obviously, some good news from the real data that replaced some of the conservative initial projections.

 

[Kevin_W]

Again, you missed my point. 99.5-99.8 is Her resting temp - what her body is when it as at rest. It can easily be 100.4 just from running around or being a little dehydrated - i know because i have had to deal with her school multiple times on this issue because of their 100.4 threshold. An elevated resting temp means the threshold of calling something a fever for her isn’t 100.4, as i detailed last night.

Anyway, my overall point is that there are medical conditions that result in poor temperature regulation - meaning someone, like my daughter, can have what other would consider a fever - 100.4 - and yet not be sick or infectious at all (again, as determined by medical professionals). So how
Does disney handle that, given their own statements on their website of not requiring proof of medical conditions due to legal restrictions of doing so? How would a child like mine, whose fever threshold is higher, get past these temperatute scans without requiring medical documentation, and if the answer is they can’t, then how does disney suddenly go from saying there are legal restrictions on them asking for proof of medical conditions to then requiring it?

That's interesting to read. My resting temp is ~97.3°. If I'm at 99.8°, I'm definitely running a fever and am laying in bed. I know many people that "run low" like me. But I didn't know of any who were naturally that high.

 

[Angel Ariel]

That's interesting to read. My resting temp is ~97.3°. If I'm at 99.8°, I'm definitely running a fever and am laying in bed. I know many people that "run low" like me. But I didn't know of any who were naturally that high.

Yes, i run low too. My normal is 97.5. Like you, a 99.8 has me in bed generally.

that is what makes this temperature scan so security theatre like to me. I get the goal is reduction not elimination - but it isn’t even effective as reduction. Especially considering how easy it is to take a fever reducer and just come on in. It may make people feel safer, but isn’t actually accomplishing a safter environment.