Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

["El Gran Magnifico"]

If they restrict the opening to on site guests only they could administer the Abbot fast test upon check in and prevent the bottleneck getting into the parks. Granted the parks would not be at full capacity but initially wouldn't that be best

But the other part of the equation would be the locals / non-property guests. Unless Disney decided to shut down the entire resort. It's going to be hard containing that at a place like Springs and potentially for resort hoppers with a dining res. (Which sadly - I think resort hopping without/res will not be allowed for a little bit - and that was one of my favorite things to do). No real easy decisions here.

 

[John park hopper]

Hopefully we will start getting some hard data on immunity and how long it lasts before relaxing of preventive measures occurs

 

[Kevin_W]

The IHME model says it's intended for US Hospital systems and governments. But we could speculate that a state model for beds, isn't going to help a rural hospital figure out what they need vs a suburban hospital vs an urban hospital. That makes me think that there is another calculation, that this model doesn't show, where a state number can be used to model down to a more specific case. Something that hospital administrators are comfortable and familiar with using. Take something a little different, structural engineering. If you need something to perform well at 200,000 pounds, you don't design for 200,000 pounds, but some higher over-engineered number. Perhaps, a higher than actual state number as a starting point, can help guarantee that when some local hospital projects their individual needs, they will have enough?

What's interesting is that some east coast areas are using a different model, called CHIME, which is being done by the University of Pennsylvania. That model is even more aggressive about predicting hospitalizations and equipment. I have seen where all of this angst about hospital bed estimations being wrong is coming from, so if they freak out about IHME, then they should be completely apoplectic about the CHIME modeling. While it is great that so much data & modeling is available, we have to remember it's not designed for a bunch of Disney nerds, or other lay people. There is a Washington Post article about the different models, and why DC is using CHIME.

“We pray it’s wrong. We do,” Bowser said. “But we are looking at all of the modeling, and we don’t think one that says we don’t need any additional beds is a model that would be safe preparation for the residents of the District of Columbia.”

Like building a structure, communities can't afford to be wrong, and underestimate their needs. They will choose to over-engineer the system.

I'll have to find that WSJ article. Fair enough points, but I think we talk down to "laypeople" too much, whether Disney nerd or not. I'm a ChemE who works in R&D for a chemical company, so in no way related to health care. But I've spent most of my career analyzing data. I have a statistician in my group who does nothing but build "models" on everything from experimental DOE's to customer satisfaction data. Different fields than epidemiology, for sure, but at some point numbers are numbers. I'm sure even on this board I'm not unique in this.

 

[Lilofan]

But the other part of the equation would be the locals / non-property guests. Unless Disney decided to shut down the entire resort. It's going to be hard containing that at a place like Springs and potentially for resort hoppers with a dining res. (Which sadly - I think resort hopping without/res will not be allowed for a little bit - and that was one of my favorite things to do). No real easy decisions here.

At Universal City Walk, it's one way in one way out with everyone going through a metal detector. At Disney Springs there are multiple ways to get in and out of the very open complex.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

At Universal City Walk, it's one way in one way out with everyone going through a metal detector. At Disney Springs there are multiple ways to get in and out of the very open complex.

Yeah. Orlando/Orange County in general is going to be interesting. The first thing obviously they need to try and get back is leisure tourism. Second is corp travel/convention business. Wonder what the plan for IDrive/535/192 is going to be?

 

[Kevin_W]

A few possible glimmers of hope;

Spain’s death toll could be starting to flatten. The UKs infection rate could be starting to flatten.

In the UK, later this month, if people follow the rules and if things continue as hoped, there could be a partial relaxation of some lockdown rules. Our death toll is expected to peak currently next week. What’s important is the rules continue to be followed. It’s the only way this could begin to end sooner rather than later.

The numbers for Western Europe, in general, have looked somewhat promising for a few days. Flat cases and flat to decreasing deaths per day. If we look at Iran, one of the first countries affected, they seem to be on the downward side of the flattened hump many are predicting/hoping for. Hopefully the US and other countries follow that, although it looks like we are about a month or so behind.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I think it would have to be done before they board the ME bus at the airport.

And likely before they boarded the plane before that.

I should think, we'd need a LOT more tests than we currently have.

Could you imagine if you didn't have any symptoms, got to your check-in (or even ME) and they test you only to find out you have COVID-19? How would you even be refunded and taken care of? At that point, you're not going to be able to get on the ME. You're not going to be able to get on a plane. It would be horrible.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I’m hoping this doesn’t become the new “security theatre.” Yes of course we need to be careful and get through this, but eventually life will go on and on the other side people shouldn’t be expected to submit to medical evaluations to enter a theme park or board a plane.

People have been going out in public when they are sick for decades... I’m sure at some point in my life I somehow passed a disease on to someone else without knowing. It’s life. (that’s not to rehash the current stay at home... I’m talking about the future when this gets to low / normal numbers for a virus).

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I’m hoping this doesn’t become the new “security theatre.” Yes of course we need to be careful and get through this, but eventually life will go on and on the other side people shouldn’t be expected to submit to medical evaluations to enter a theme park or board a plane.

People have been going out in public when they are sick for decades... I’m sure at some point in my life I somehow passed a disease on to someone else without knowing. It’s life. (that’s not to rehash the current stay at home... I’m talking about the future when this gets to low / normal numbers for a virus).

That's my train of thought. Things will return to a variation of normal. We all will go to movies, get on a plane, eat at a restaurant. We may be wearing masks for some of this and thinking twice about what we touch, carry hand sanitizer with us, etc. I've gone out sick. Others have gone out sick. I've gotten sick from others. It's just how life works. We'll just be more conscious about it.

I think what will be interesting is to see how education and returning to work looks like. I could see many companies easily having employees that can work from home continue to do just that. If you start requiring people to go back to work and you have an outbreak, you could potentially open yourself up to legal challenges (versus you voluntarily go to the movies, get on a plane, etc.) and having to shut down your office for a period of time. I imagine working from home and distance learning may be a staple for quite some time and not considered a rarity.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m hoping this doesn’t become the new “security theatre.” Yes of course we need to be careful and get through this, but eventually life will go on and on the other side people shouldn’t be expected to submit to medical evaluations to enter a theme park or board a plane.

People have been going out in public when they are sick for decades... I’m sure at some point in my life I somehow passed a disease on to someone else without knowing. It’s life. (that’s not to rehash the current stay at home... I’m talking about the future when this gets to low / normal numbers for a virus).

I don’t think anyone is envisioning this stuff as a long term plan, but if they want to open the parks relatively soon and have them open this summer I think we can expect to see some radical stuff. It may only last a few months or up to a year but it’s a means to an end. If you want to go to the parks when they open (I know I do) you are probably going to have to jump through hoops. I need to know what the hoops are, but I’m willing to consider doing a lot more than I would have even a month ago.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I don’t think anyone is envisioning this stuff as a long term plan, but if they want to open the parks relatively soon and have them open this summer I think we can expect to see some radical stuff. It may only last a few months or up to a year but it’s a means to an end. If you want to go to the parks when they open (I know I do) you are probably going to have to jump through hoops. I need to know what the hoops are, but I’m willing to consider doing a lot more than I would have even a month ago.

I agree... I mean we will jump through hoops, we are Disney fans! If I’ll get up at 5:00AM for a Rise boarding pass on “vacation” TWICE then Mickey can ask for anything from me. Lol.

And I already jump through all the hoops to board planes, it is what it is... just not looking forward to what may come from this.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A well done illustration on how you can spin facts to make a point. Notice on the flu vs. COVID-19 death chart, they have US data for the flu and then throw a giant line of COVID-19 death's WORLDWIDE. Sleight of hand that David Copperfield would be proud of!

The video didn't hide that fact, so, there's no sleight of hand at all.

There's been over 7,000 deaths from COVID19 in the U.S., and that's in just a few months without the contagion fully peaking yet. And that's with all the things we're doing to slow it down. So, yes, it's worse than the flu. Deaths from flu in the U.S. is 3,000 - 49,000. The projected number of deaths from COVID19 is 100,000 - 240,000 in the U.S., as much as a million without abatement measures.

The worldwide death figures for the flu are between 250K - 500K depending on which strain. For COVID19, we're already at 59K worldwide with several thousand more dying each day... and the world hasn't peaked yet.

So, yes, it would have been nice to get apples to apples, but the point isn't 'spun' to give a false reading on COVID's greater severity.

The (possibly contagious) pre-symptomatic graphic is also an illustration of this. While it is stating a fact, the fact is already accounted for in the Ro discussion earlier. Using this graphic later in the video implies that it spreads more easily than they already talked about.

The illustration just shows why CV has a higher R0. Don't know why you think you're being tricked into thinking otherwise. But the illustration is a clear point regarding the thesis of the video: CV is different from the Flu. The reason why the R0 is higher is because of 'spreaders' who aren't symptomatic yet.

Same with the lack of immunity animation. That animation also makes it look like everybody exposed will develop an infection which is not true even without immunity. There needs to be a critical mass of virus transferred for the transferee to develop an infection.

Simplified graphics for educational purposes are just simplified graphics for educational purposes.

Also, speaking of spin, you have no scientific data to back up this statement: There needs to be a critical mass of virus transferred for the transferee to develop an infection. What is that critical mass for COVID? Scientists don't know yet and it may be less than the flu, which is part of COVID's higher R0. You say this as a fact without knowing the details, which is the kind of not-going-into-details that you bemoan of the video and say that's *spin*. You're doing the same thing as the video by not going into very specific detail. Is that then *spin* on your part?

I mean, we can all see it spreading and doing so faster than the flu. You're arguing a point which the video is purposefully avoiding and not *hiding*. It spreads from person to person. That's the point of the video. It's not meant to go into the weeds of amount of exposure to viruses before an infection take hold.

The hospitalization percentage for COVID-19 is completely wrong. Even without considering asymptomatics in the equation it is under 20% and nowhere near the 30% they quote. They credit CDC for the flu hospitalization data but don't cite any source for COVID-19 (the CDC has not published any data on hospitalization rate).

This is from CDC.gov...

So yes, it is a very well done video that shows how you can mix facts with predictions and spin something that nobody disputes (that COVID-19 is worse than the flu) and make it as scary as possible to justify "social distancing" actions.

So, we all agree that COVID is worse than the flu. So it's different from the flu. The video was trying to explain in lay terms why. I don't see any false or 'spinny' use of facts that you see.

 

[Andrew C]

What do the US national numbers, curves and models look like minus NYC area?

I’m not saying NYC doesn’t matter..of course our largest city does. Many people have died. But it still seems to be an outlier compared to the rest of the country, even compared to other areas that are highly infected.

 

[GoofGoof]

What do the US national numbers, curves and models look like minus NYC area?

I’m not saying NYC doesn’t matter..of course our largest city does. Many people have died. But it still seems to be an outlier compared to the rest of the country, even compared to other areas that are highly infected.

Total US cases without all of NY state is still greater than any other country in the world.

 

[Andrew C]

Total US cases without all of NY state is still greater than any other country in the world.

I’m interested in the projections and models for the rest of the country. I think it will eventually matter when we get into May...

Also, China has the most cases worldwide no matter what they tell us...but, whatever, doesn’t matter...well it kind of does if we use their inadequate data.

 

[Timmay]

Total US cases without all of NY state is still greater than any other country in the world.

A more accurate comparison is the US to all of Western Europe, which is roughly the same size population I believe. Less by a third maybe? Not sure. But look at the number of cases there total.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I’m interested in the projections and models for the rest of the country. I think it will eventually matter when we get into May...

Also, China has the most cases worldwide no matter what they tell us...but, whatever, doesn’t matter...well it kind of does if we use their inadequate data.

US projected deaths is currently 93,531. NY projected alone is 16,261. Assuming they're evenly distributed (obviously they're not), that's about 1,577 deaths per state across the other 49.

I don't think the models are additive, though. Ohio (one of the states that's been ahead) is projected at 1,900. Texas is projected at over 6,000. I haven't looked at every state though (too much work haha).

 

[Andrew C]

US projected deaths is currently 93,531. NY projected alone is 16,261. Assuming they're evenly distributed (obviously they're not), that's about 1,577 deaths per state across the other 49.

I don't think the models are additive, though. Ohio (one of the states that's been ahead) is projected at 1,900. Texas is projected at over 6,000. I haven't looked at every state though (too much work haha).

Texas currently has 90 deaths. That is quite a jump. I wonder if that accounts for the fact that most major cities there extended their shelter in place orders to April 30th.

 

[davidfarley]

Thank you for posting this.
One would think that at this point, people would stop comparing Covid-19 with the Flu.

I think the flu comparisons are fair. I think it is important to compare this virus to many others in an attempt to better understand the potential of the outbreak. r0 is very important, but SARS has an r0 in the 2-5 range and it didn't infect millions. If you search the internet for the r0 of corona you will find that it is all over the place. I've seen as low as 1.3 and as high as 6.5. Dr. Fauci himself published a paper where he suggests this will be comparable to a serious seasonal flu outbreak similar to 1957 or 1968.
I'm not trying to suggest how serious this virus is, but rather that we should look at as much information as possible. I think we should take it very seriously. We shouldn't, on the other hand, cower in our homes for months on end and completely destroy the economy as this probably isn't necessary. We have to learn how we can thread the needle of making educated decisions to evaluate the risks of our behaviors going forward.
I'm hoping we can have expanded testing very soon so we can find out those who have already been infected but have recovered. If I happen to be one of those I will be back at WDW as soon as it is open.

 

[celluloid]

The truth is everyone, sometimets we do have to blink and take a deep breath when we can. We live in a world where numbers are instant, projections are shared faster than ever before and our experts can use them for good, and we can use them just to worry about something we as a world do not know that much about yet. In the weeks that this exploded so much more is known. It takes time and it is tragic for those that lose their lives, but don't let it let you be cynical. This includes myself. I apologize to those I have snapped at on this forum. Find a neighbor who needs service. Maybe you have some supplies or goods you can place on their doorstep of things they do not have. Disinfect as you see fit before and they can let it sit in their corner to give it time or clean it again themselves before use. If you are out for a walk and see someone, ask or take some time to clean up someone's yard if it seems to be something they are not able to do.
I have seen my neighbors more than I ever have and probably ever will again once the tides change.