Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[George]

Second wave of Spanish Flu was attributed to troop movement based on WW1. Luckily, we don't really have that to worry about - but we do have air travel (which they didn't in those times). I really, really, hope you are right.

I dunno. My time machine is kind of sketchy, but I have more time to work on it now.

 

[GoofGoof]

We would probably see more small businesses opening illegally... and we will most likely see civil unrest in the form of protests.

It’s easy enough to shut down businesses that open illegally. Neighbors will turn them in. Police won’t have any probablem finding them.

Protests are fine as long as everyone stands 6 feet apart and coughs into their elbows.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

IRS orders office evacuation, affecting most agency employees

The directions include employees who don’t have a telework agreement.

www.politico.com

 

[easyrowrdw]

Each state is going through its own thing. The University of Washington has put together these projections for each state: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can see that they estimate New York will have its peak mid-April, but Florida not until early May and Virginia not until mid-May.

Thank you for the link. Just a day ago Florida’s peak was middle of May. It looks like they’re adjusting it as the numbers are graphed.

I noticed some of the other states have the peaks that are getting later. The overall numbers have gone down, which is good, but the curves are also getting longer. The slower ramp up is good in terms of resource use, but seems to also mean that it will require longer and longer distancing times. That means more time out of work, school, etc. That's going to be hard.

At some point, if the projected peaks are well below the resource availability, does it make sense to begin easing the restrictions? At one point in the process do you do that? If it's going to ramp up again eventually, how long do you wait before letting that happen? By my count there are 12 states that aren't projected to exceed resources so it's still limited.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Some of these guys/gals - have no idea.

Blissful ignorance? Submariners likely unaware of pandemic

LE PECQ, France (AP) — Of a world in coronavirus turmoil, they may know little or nothing. Submariners stealthily cruising the ocean deeps, purposefully shielded from worldly worries to encourage undivided focus on their top-secret missions of nuclear deterrence, may be among the last pockets of...

apnews.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, the police can easily shut down a business who opens illegally, and they can arrest protestors for gathering. They can arrest any pastor who holds a service or a funeral with more than 10 people.
And then the riots will come, and more arrests, and we’ll then be in the middle of major civil unrest.

From what I see the vast majority of people support the government and the efforts being taken to keep people safe. Most of the angry backlash has been against people defying orders not the other way around. I personally don’t think riots or even protests are likely if we are still locking down through June 10. A lot can change by them so who knows.

 

[Andrew C]

From what I see the vast majority of people support the government and the efforts being taken to keep people safe. Most of the angry backlash has been against people defying orders not the other way around. I personally don’t think riots or even protests are likely if we are still locking down through June 10. A lot can change by them so who knows.

I think you overestimating what people will put up with....on the long term...

 

[wdwmagic]

Walt Disney World salaried Cast Members to be paid through to April 18

Walt Disney World salaried Cast Members to be paid through to April 18

One of the questions from last Friday's announcement seems to have been answered.

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[seascape]

View attachment 459568View attachment 459571

Crowds ignore social distancing rules to watch USNS Comfort

Crowds of gawkers ignored New York’s social-distance regulations and packed the west side of Manhattan on Monday to watch a US Navy hospital ship arrive to give badly needed coronavirus aid. …

nypost.com

This is one of the reasons NYC is the epicenter of the US pandemic. Governor Cuomo has been complaining the the citizens of the city are still gathering in crowds, playing basketball games, etc. etc. Unless people follow the rules the disease will continue to spread. As Governor Cuomo said Covid19 does mot discriminate by party or race. However some individuals are fools. People can go out as long as they social distance. BTW try to keep at 10 foot distance just to be safer than 6 feet.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think you overestimating what people will put up with....on the long term...

What’s your definition of long term? Everyone has accepted 4/30 as the new date. That’s a month and a half from the start of this for a lot of people. I don’t see them taking to the streets to riot if they extend it another month beyond that. I agree it’s not sustainable for 12 to 18 months until we have a vaccine. I think most people don’t want to go out too early and make the sacrifice of the 6 weeks prior be for nothing.

 

[Lilofan]

I think you overestimating what people will put up with....on the long term...

If the National Guard start rolling in with their men, women and military hardware especially in VA and MD with new stay at home orders thru June 10, that will send a direct message.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I think some of you are underestimating the effects a rising death toll will have on the will of people to want to get back to normal life. Jobs will be one thing, but continued actions by local and federal government can tamp down the fear of not getting paid (which is why other countries went straight to covering a percentage of pay). There will always be some percentage of people who will resist, but despite all the pictures of morons (cases still are developing, so they have to come from somewhere), the vast majority of people seem to be following the rules. I think I saw the polling seems to be an 80-20% split between heeding the restrictions, and those who think it's overboard.

If there are riots, it will because people are starving and have been kicked out of their homes (again, governments can allay these issues). Not because they can't they can't eat out or go to a movie. The worse the numbers get, IMO, the more people will be okay just holing up somewhere with family and comfort food, and more cautious about when to pop their heads back out.

I've seen no proof whatsoever that this government is willing to do what it takes to support people throughout this event. A one time check and improved unemployment insurance is weak sauce.

 

[Tom P.]

Yes, the police can easily shut down a business who opens illegally, and they can arrest protestors for gathering. They can arrest any pastor who holds a service or a funeral with more than 10 people.
And then the riots will come, and more arrests, and we’ll then be in the middle of major civil unrest.

It varies from state-to-state, of course. But church services and political protests have largely been exempted from these orders on First Amendment grounds. Most of the church closures we have seen have been churches voluntarily closing in response to information provided by the government. I am Catholic and, for example, our dioceses has suspended all public Masses, but there is no order from the state that requires them to do so. So no one would actually be arrested for attending Mass.

 

[Andrew C]

What’s your definition of long term? Everyone has accepted 4/30 as the new date

Months rather than weeks....

I think most people don’t want to go out too early and make the sacrifice of the 6 weeks prior be for nothing.

There is a difference between active social distancing and long term shelter in place orders. I am extremely worried about the long term effects of doing something like this. It seems these orders have been sold as short term solutions to get ahead of the virus, bend the curve, so we can up testing and get the necessary resources in place. But if these orders need to be in place for months (I realize this is just one order in VA that could be shortened), rather than weeks, it probably isn't providing the benefit we thought it would...

 

[Tom P.]

I've seen no proof whatsoever that this government is willing to do what it takes to support people throughout this event. A one time check and improved unemployment insurance is weak sauce.

It's a start and will accomplish a great deal. Things are constantly moving in this scenario. I think most are now acknowledging that a fourth round of legislation will be needed in the near future.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Right now. I'm not looking for a "fix". I'm looking for "better". I'll take that for now. We can work on "fix" once we get "better"

 

[Disney Analyst]

My province has just announced suspension of all paid parking at all hospitals across the province.

They are also setting up more beds everywhere. Converting the Vancouver Convention Centre, adding 271 beds there.

I am glad my province is working so hard to try and manage this.

 

[thomas998]

I disagree. If you can't open theatres or amusement parks then you can't allow people on airplanes either. You are also assuming that no treatment will help. Hopefully something that they are trying with existing drugs/treatments will work to at least lessen the length and/or severity.

As more people become infected, more people also become immune. Until the serology test is available, we don't know how many people have already had COVID-19 and are immune for some period of time.

Nobody knows if any of the vaccines currently in development will be effective. Hopefully they are but if they aren't it could be 2 years or more for a vaccine. You can't close all of these segments of the economy for 2 years or more.

Finally, on "large gatherings" in general with respect to this virus, there needs to be research and analysis done to categorize different "large gatherings." 200 people in a night club is likely to be a far bigger risk of spread than 80,000 people in a football stadium. In a nightclub, one infected person can be in prolonged, close contact with a huge percentage of the other people there due to the dance floor and socializing. In a football stadium, they are only in prolonged close contact with the handful of people seated around them. A theatre is similar. There's not really much difference between a stadium/theatre and a table game at a casino.

The virus doesn't spread like a game of telephone where it goes to the person next to the infected person and then repeats around the stadium. It needs time to infect "patient 1" before they are contagious. I don't know how long that takes but it is certainly longer than the length of a movie or sporting event.

I have seen reports of many cases of COVID-19 linked to a single nightclub or party. I haven't seen reports of any outbreaks linked to a movie theatre or sports stadium.

To begin with I never said airports should be open. They shouldn't, they should have been closed before anything else it was only because of politicians hunger for lobbyist money that they are still open.

And precisely why would you see an outbreak from a sporting event or theater when they were one of the first things shut down? That is the reason you didn't see outbreaks from them. But you can use any number of churches to see what can happen when a sick person goes to what is essentially a theater. People get sick. Some of the earliest outbreaks in South Korea were traced to a church. Simply because people in a theater go and sit down in a specific place for a period of time doesn't change the fact that they all funnel through the same lobby, and they all use the same concession stands, and of course the same bathrooms. All you need is one person coughing in one of those areas and they just released a nix infection cocktail that can waft in the air for as long as 3 hours. So even if you run the other way when you see someone coughing it doesn't mean that you would still be passing through an area where someone coughed 5 minutes before you showed up.

All large gatherings are an unnecessary risk.

 

[Lilofan]

Yes, the police can easily shut down a business who opens illegally, and they can arrest protestors for gathering. They can arrest any pastor who holds a service or a funeral with more than 10 people.
And then the riots will come, and more arrests, and we’ll then be in the middle of major civil unrest.

The National Guard can be called in to restore law and order. They are trained and ready for this type of job.

 

[VaderTron]

It's very possible to value other people and still put your family and friends above them. That's not an exclusive thing to people you might deem as being selfish or callous. It's basic instinct to take care of yours before you take care of everyone else. I promise you, I will take care of my family and friends well before I take care of everyone else. That's not to say I will take actions that purposefully damage others (that's why my family has been home for the past 2+ weeks and will be staying home until at least the end of April), but I will make a conscious choice if it comes time to ensure my family are taken care of.

What you are describing is exactly what I'm talking about. Most people's definition of "care about x" is the equivalent of my wife caring about her potted plant. She cares about it enough to take care of it, water it, make sure it has sun. But if there's a trip to WDW coming up and she can't find anyone to water her plant, she will just let it fend for itself. Even if that means it could die.

When I say people don't really care about anyone outside of their circle of friends and family, my point is they don't care about others more than they do a potted plant. They care about people as long as it fills their own need to feel personal pride that "I care about people". That is, until it interferes with their inner circle's rights/priorities/goals. At that point everyone is left in the lurch to fend for themselves.

That is sad.