Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

["El Gran Magnifico"]

They are. But they’ll keep just pushing back the date if needed.

It's all being coordinated. Several suppliers today extended, No matter what area of the industry (Hotel, Theme Park, Cruise etc) - The verticals will all come out together. Nobody is going to be a jerk and say "I'm opening one week before they do" (aligned with verticals - I'd assume hotels/air would be first)

 

[ifan]

Yeah, and that ****es me off because of the fact that these shortages have been talked about for weeks now with no action being taken by companies to mitigate. You've got GM ready to make ventilators and instead of making them and figuring out the details later, the President has to enact the DPA for them to move forward. I'm happy they're also doing doing it only 'at cost', but we needed this done weeks ago. It seems like companies are sourcing millions of N95 masks, which is great to see as well, but we needed this weeks ago as well. We've got to move faster because people aren't looking to buy cars right now, so utilize your factories to build the things people need right now and they'll remember that when it comes time to buy cars again.

It takes several weeks to re-tool a factory, acquire materials, test the process, start making product, and then deliver said product. You're seeing a lot of these deliveries being made now with PPE which means that actions started being taken weeks, or even over a month ago.
Just because you didn't get daily updates from the factory doesn't mean it wasn't happening.

Millions and millions of masks, gowns, gloves have already been delivered to states over the past few weeks but the demand is just outrageous. As we learned yesterday, one hospital in NY is using 10X their normal PPE each week.

It is not like there is zero inventory and hospitals are out of everything. Inventory exists, and hospitals do have supplies. But the fear is that the absolutely wild increase in usage/demand is still outpacing even much higher supply levels. This is forcing hospital admins to require employees to re-use masks or to preserve PPE in other ways. The hospital isn't out but the admins are AFRAID they would be out if they didn't preserve.

The focus on GM is probably a bit silly since they won't make a dent in ventilator supplies until after the peak has already hit. Our stockpile, increased production from existing suppliers, and smarter national distribution will be the key to having the right amount of ventilators in the right places at the right time. I don't foresee a ventilator shortage if we use our existing supplies in smart ways. NY still has thousands of ventilators in their stockpile yet I hear stories of hospitals worried they will run out today/tomorrow. That isn't a supply issue, that is a distribution issue. Having more supply won't fix that.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Unfortunately, Macy's was having a downturn before the virus. This may be the final nail in the coffin

Many companies, banks, governments and individuals were already in financial zombie status before the virus hit. Especially with respect to debt. They were on the edge of bankruptcy already and now the edge of the cliff has crumbled under them. Trying to save all these entities and individuals will cost trillions of dollars and if their financial situation was bad beforehand, it won't become magically better because they got a shot of CV-19 bailout money.

I think that Disney and its parks will survive but only in the face of a lot upheavals among entities they depend on such as banks, airlines, hotel, restaurant and retail partners, suppliers and customers.

 

[The Mom]

News Print media collapsing was going to happen without CV-19 induced hardships.

I agree. I had home delivery of a daily local newspaper for all of my life - first when living at home, and then once I got my own home. I switched over to e-edition about 2 years ago, as the price for home delivery kept going up. I can get my local paper, NYT, and WSJ all for about the same price.

My children have never had print media since leaving home - they've had online subscriptions (or get around paywalls) When I first moved to my home (almost 40 years ago) neighbors up and down the street would get the daily paper. Now only the 80+ year old neighbor gets one.

 

[celluloid]

The point being - they are not even remotely the same due to the diversity of the population and what immediate (not potential) entropy that brings into the mix.

The whole point of restricting travel and movement is to counter that... your school is a mixing bowl of your community.. but is still largely your local community. WDW is not.

This is classic comparing apples and oranges because they both include the same idea... lots of people.

It does not matter where the poison comes from once it is spreading in masses. It is not to get rid of it.
The thing about that apples to oranges cliche, is they're both fruits. The numbers need to drop, that is why travel from the most populated continent and other countries were ceased.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

It takes several weeks to re-tool a factory, acquire materials, test the process, start making product, and then deliver said product. You're seeing a lot of these deliveries being made now with PPE which means that actions started being taken weeks, or even over a month ago.
Just because you didn't get daily updates from the factory doesn't mean it wasn't happening.

Millions and millions of masks, gowns, gloves have already been delivered to states over the past few weeks but the demand is just outrageous. As we learned yesterday, one hospital in NY is using 10X their normal PPE each week.

It is not like there is zero inventory and hospitals are out of everything. Inventory exists, and hospitals do have supplies. But the fear is that the absolutely wild increase in usage/demand is still outpacing even much higher supply levels. This is forcing hospital admins to require employees to re-use masks or to preserve PPE in other ways. The hospital isn't out but the admins are AFRAID they would be out if they didn't preserve.

The focus on GM is probably a bit silly since they won't make a dent in ventilator supplies until after the peak has already hit. Our stockpile, increased production from existing suppliers, and smarter national distribution will be the key to having the right amount of ventilators in the right places at the right time. I don't foresee a ventilator shortage if we use our existing supplies in smart ways. NY still has thousands of ventilators in their stockpile yet I hear stories of hospitals worried they will run out today/tomorrow. That isn't a supply issue, that is a distribution issue. Having more supply won't fix that.

Of course it takes weeks to re-tool a factory and do everything mentioned. If you read up on GM, for example, they could've also taken the time to start training their employees instead of dragging their feet.

GM anticipates being able to ramp up to 10,000 ventilators per month. So 2,500 a week/average. You don't think 2500 or so ventilators would be useful right now (and GM is just one example)? As you mentioned, the supply is there, but there's a distribution issue. The last thing you want is to give up your supply and end up needing it, but unable to do so. In this day and age, how fast would you be called out on the carpet and demonized for not only not having enough supplies, but giving it to another hospital to use? Pretty damn fast. Just because one hospital doesn't need the supply today doesn't mean they won't need it tomorrow.

The less time hospital admins have to spend sourcing the things they need, the sooner they can focus on another area of concern.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Until there is a vaccine, yes. There should be no opening of theaters, amusement parks or any places that are based on large gatherings. You assume I think schools should be opened in the fall. I don't unless there is already a vaccine. I simply said that a school was a lower risk than an amusement park but it is still a risk that would result in an increase in the virus. Which is not warranted given the inability to treat anyone with the virus even exists. Remember even if you magically had enough ICU beds for everyone in the country and enough doctors and nurse to treat everyone you would still be seeing people die from it. It kills regardless of whether you get medical treatment or not.

Awesome. So theaters are out of the business. Some movie studios are out of business. Marketing firms are out of business. Concessionaires are out of business. Constructions firms are out of business. Oh and teachers will be out of business because schools will quickly figure out how to teach 2-300 kids with a couple of teachers instead of one per 30 kids (or whatever the number is) because they won't have the money needed.

Your plan just doesn't work. You can't shut everything down for 12-18 months.

 

[Patcheslee]

At the end of the day I don't see 1/4 of a year hurting kids in the grand scheme academically. The social burden and the challenge the kids have for all those on subsidized meals, etc is a much more immediate impact.

It's messy... no way around it.

I'm hopeful our district will start again by May. They're last day is the 21st which would give them 15 days of school. Usually this includes a few days of 5th graders meeting with the middle school counselors 1 on 1 for class choices, academic plans through graduation, and what path they would need to take to get there.
Food wise they are only distributing for 3 days a week now 11-2pm due to waived days. Just in the 1 of 5 elementary schools here there are 86 children who were getting backsacks (food for Saturday and Sunday meals sent home each Friday), that distribution has been paused for 2 weeks because they haven't figured out how to get them to the kids. Apparently they can't just give out addresses for delivery

 

[MrHappy]

They should go back to stamping your hand so when you go back in the Park you can put your hands under the UV black light instead of touching the finger scanner later on in the day after thousands of people touched it.

We could all go into the scanner thing on FOP. I hear that detects germs and kills them.

 

[Polynesia]

Until there is a vaccine, yes. There should be no opening of theaters, amusement parks or any places that are based on large gatherings. You assume I think schools should be opened in the fall. I don't unless there is already a vaccine. I simply said that a school was a lower risk than an amusement park but it is still a risk that would result in an increase in the virus. Which is not warranted given the inability to treat anyone with the virus even exists. Remember even if you magically had enough ICU beds for everyone in the country and enough doctors and nurse to treat everyone you would still be seeing people die from it. It kills regardless of whether you get medical treatment or not.

Awesome. So theaters are out of the business. Some movie studios are out of business. Marketing firms are out of business. Concessionaires are out of business. Constructions firms are out of business. Oh and teachers will be out of business because schools will quickly figure out how to teach 2-300 kids with a couple of teachers instead of one per 30 kids (or whatever the number is) because they won't have the money needed.

Your plan just doesn't work. You can't shut everything down for 12-18 months.

I agree with you. You can’t shut everything down. Nobody can go to work because there still is that chance of contamination in everything. Adjustments need to be made. But we have to get back to some kind of normalcy.

 

[DisneyCane]

Many companies, banks, governments and individuals were already in financial zombie status before the virus hit. Especially with respect to debt. They were on the edge of bankruptcy already and now the edge of the cliff has crumbled under them. Trying to save all these entities and individuals will cost trillions of dollars and if their financial situation was bad beforehand, it won't become magically better because they got a shot of CV-19 bailout money.

I think that Disney and its parks will survive but only in the face of a lot upheavals among entities they depend on such as banks, airlines, hotel, restaurant and retail partners, suppliers and customers.

Disney and its parks will survive (and thrive) because a lot of the personal debt that you speak of is from people spending beyond their means for things like WDW vacations. Every time I'm at WDW, I look around and wonder how many of the other guests are going to be paying 18% interest on their visit and possibly filing bankruptcy because of it. It's what I believe allows Disney to keep raising prices yet have the attendance keep rising. I remember seeing people (including my parents) in the early 1980's using traveler's checks on vacation. People would have the money to go on vacation before they went.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

But we have to get back to some kind of normalcy

I agree. But there may be a different kind of "normalcy" moving forward.

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

In case anyone could use a laugh right now to lighten the mood. This is probably my favorite of the many disney parks at home videos LOL

 

[flynnibus]

Definition of 'entropy'. I will assume (and have put it in bold below) that you're referencing the second definition.

No, Entropy as in the concept how a system in steady state is changed by adding to it and how adding change increases the randomness.

Adding entropy is the equivalent of taking something in a steady state and moving out of that steady state and increasing the activity.

Which in your example... if we take the steady state of a local people getting together... it's going to be relatively stable if it were stable to start with. People assembling and unassembling isn't a ton of change. The change introduced as those people network is small because people largely stay local on a day to day basis.

Now contrast this with a similar sized group of people, but the 90% people involved change every time. And those people each come from far and wide. The amount of change (entropy) brought into the assembly is orders of magnitude different.

It's not even in the same ballpark of similarity. Yes, both involve the risk of sharing between individuals... but the risk of introduction of change into the sample is night and day when the makeup of the group is from such diverse sources.

It's the same reason why staying at home with your family of 5... is less risky than going to the bar and meeting 5 strangers.

And why likening schools to WDW... is dense.

 

[Polynesia]

I agree. But there may be a different kind of "normalcy" moving forward.

Very true.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I agree. I had home delivery of a daily local newspaper for all of my life - first when living at home, and then once I got my own home. I switched over to e-edition about 2 years ago, as the price for home delivery kept going up. I can get my local paper, NYT, and WSJ all for about the same price.

My children have never had print media since leaving home - they've had online subscriptions (or get around paywalls) When I first moved to my home (almost 40 years ago) neighbors up and down the street would get the daily paper. Now only the 80+ year old neighbor gets one.

Growing up. My dad subscribed to the "Miami Herald" which was delivered early am. He also subscribed to the Miami News - which hit the front steps at about 4pm. My how things have changed.

 

[flynnibus]

It does not matter where the poison comes from once it is spreading in masses

Once it's there.. you no longer have a steady state. You're skipping right to the point of "too late" and ignoring the point of bringing up entropy and steady states.

To keep it simple for the lay... When the actual infection footprint is not know - getting 100 strangers from out of town together is far more risky than getting 100 local people together. I'd do the math for people.. but since they don't grab onto the simplified view, the math isn't going to be any more convincing to them.

 

[Lilofan]

So I would think you’d be a bit more understanding... not less

I can understand but one thing all need to understand is that a family has to make very difficult decisions in life if income levels drop to adapt to current or future conditions.

 

[The Mom]

People, you're getting back to the same "we have to do more/we've done too much/we have to end this ASAP/we have to keep doing this forever" argument. Again, all it does is continue the argument and lead to angry/rude/snarky posts.

Please stop.

 

[wedenterprises]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but I wonder if an initial re-opening could involve only local or state passholders?