Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
The virus doesn't spread like a game of telephone where it goes to the person next to the infected person and then repeats around the stadium. It needs time to infect "patient 1" before they are contagious. I don't know how long that takes but it is certainly longer than the length of a movie or sporting event.
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No, it's also spread by multiple people picking up the same source and infecting themselves. That's why we started with the whole 'wash your hands' and later 'sanitize everything' things.

It's not just people to people contact... It can be one to many through common transmission. And it's not just 'one bad spot' but can be transferred to other spots too.

This is where the mythbuster's episode can help people understand just how extensive contact can spread things.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DarkMetroid567 said:
I wonder what fraction of APs are local, though?
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If they just keep the hotels closed then it wouldn’t matter. Some people could come in from out of state anyway and stay off property but the majority of people would probably be locals from FL. They could also make the announcement somewhat last minute to avoid crowds. Using June 1 as an example if on May 20 they announced MK would open the next day you would get mostly locals. Then ramp up the other parks until you hit a 6/1 opening for the hotels.
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Polynesia said:
I can see Disney doing that. The cast members will need to go in earlier to get things up and running since everything pretty much has been shut down. There will be new procedures to follow. Once the social distancing recommendation is lifted I can see Disney and other companies starting to reopen on a limited basis. Some schools may open and others may not. A soft opening will allow them to evaluate what’s working and what isn’t.
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Before the cast members report to work, there is a chance that not all parks, resorts, ESPN, Disney Springs Disney owned locations, water parks, mini golf may be fully operational or not operational at all based on Disney bean counters forecast estimates. That surely affects all cast on the payroll full time and part time. How Disney selects who works and who does not work is something they are probably planning for. Before the closure, some well known Epcot entertainment were laid off and that was unfortunate.
 
"El Gran Magnifico"

"El Gran Magnifico"

Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
DarkMetroid567 said:
I wonder what fraction of APs are local, though?
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It's complicated. You have "locals" that live in the Orlando, Kissimmee area and can literally go to the parks within a 5, 10, 15, 20 minute drive. Then you have "locals" (like me) that are an hour/hour and a half a way - Think Daytona, Ormond, Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota, Vero, Ft Pierce, St Lucie)...Then you got locals 2-4 hours away (Jacksonville, West Palm, Ft Lauderdale).

All within a reasonable driving distance. That is where the hotel discounts come into play (- For the moderate locals). If I can get Beach Club for $149 a night. I'm there. Provided everything is sanitized and all.
 
I

ifan

Well-Known Member
TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives said:
Of course it takes weeks to re-tool a factory and do everything mentioned. If you read up on GM, for example, they could've also taken the time to start training their employees instead of dragging their feet.

GM anticipates being able to ramp up to 10,000 ventilators per month. So 2,500 a week/average. You don't think 2500 or so ventilators would be useful right now (and GM is just one example)? As you mentioned, the supply is there, but there's a distribution issue. The last thing you want is to give up your supply and end up needing it, but unable to do so. In this day and age, how fast would you be called out on the carpet and demonized for not only not having enough supplies, but giving it to another hospital to use? Pretty damn fast. Just because one hospital doesn't need the supply today doesn't mean they won't need it tomorrow.

The less time hospital admins have to spend sourcing the things they need, the sooner they can focus on another area of concern.
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Ramps don't work that way. It won't be 2500 per week. It will start very slow at beginning of month and increase by the end of the month. S curve. I doubt more than a few hundred of their ventilators will be in the system by the time this peaks. But add up all the other suppliers together and I'm sure we will have enough.

The distribution issue is not between hospitals for PPE (it is for patient load) - but rather between state stockpiles and hospitals. I go back to my previous example from NY. They've purchased 7k additional ventilators, and been gifted 4k from feds. That is 11,000 additional ventilators. But an individual hospital in Queens is still worried they don't have enough. That shouldn't even be a question in the back of their mind. The supply is there in their state and is ready to go.

NY has 2,352 people in ICU as of today. Their hospitalization growth rate is slowing and is now doubling every 6 days. Even if it stopped slowing and continued at the current rate, NY would need less than 10,000 ventilators in the next two weeks. This would mean they already have enough in their stockpile (plus vents being delivered shortly.) Governor Cuomo's initial projection of 30,000-40,000 extra ventilators needed is just not going to happen (which is great!) His current plan is for hospital systems to start sharing patient load more aggressively - but for some reason he hasn't updated any of his resource needs in over two weeks. He seemed to be only updating his resource need projections when they were going up, but not now when they are going down.
 
D

DCBaker

Premium Member
Polynesia

Polynesia

Well-Known Member
Lilofan said:
Before the cast members report to work, there is a chance that not all parks, resorts, ESPN, Disney Springs Disney owned locations, water parks, mini golf may be fully operational or not operational at all based on Disney bean counters forecast estimates. That surely affects all cast on the payroll full time and part time. How Disney selects who works and who does not work is something they are probably planning for. Before the closure, some well known Epcot entertainment were laid off and that was unfortunate.
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You’re right. I could see Magic Kingdom and Studios opening as the first parks. Maybe only one water park. Disney Springs and restaurants phased in. Since Disney has a union and has always been seniority based I imagine that will play in to the planning. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
J

Justin Walker

Member
Any word on an extension for the deadline to use Florida Resident Discovery Disney tickets? It was originally 6/30, that was extended to 7/31 with the March closure, but I have not seen the date move again with the April closure. Really hoping it gets pushed out far enough to move my trip to the fall instead of being forced to go in the peak Summer heat, since my April trip is definitely off now.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
flynnibus said:
No, it's also spread by multiple people picking up the same source and infecting themselves. That's why we started with the whole 'wash your hands' and later 'sanitize everything' things.

It's not just people to people contact... It can be one to many through common transmission. And it's not just 'one bad spot' but can be transferred to other spots too.

This is where the mythbuster's episode can help people understand just how extensive contact can spread things.
Click to expand...

If you don't wash your hands and/or use hand sanitizer frequently going forward then you kind of deserve to get infected.

The experts still say that the primary method of transmission is droplets in the air from coughs and sneezes.

I don't believe there has been any research of how long SARS-CoV-2 lives on your skin but typical viruses don't live on skin for nearly as long as other surfaces. Either way taking care not to touch your face and washing hands can nearly eliminate your risk of catching COVID-19 (or any other illnesses) from contact spread.
 
I

ifan

Well-Known Member
As a follow-up, I applaud NY for providing a lot more transparency than other states. Daily updates on hospitalization rates, ICU rates, # of discharges. Their website is also a lot more slick than other state websites. I enjoy watching Cuomo's press conferences.

That being said, It would be helpful to the public if they lowered their projections based on more recent models and gave the general public the most realistic scenarios. It also encourages us that our social distancing is working and has been flattening the curve. Their former worst case scenarios are nearly impossible, now, even if a lot of people are still going to die.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Polynesia said:
You’re right. I could see Magic Kingdom and Studios opening as the first parks. Maybe only one water park. Disney Springs and restaurants phased in. Since Disney has a union and has always been seniority based I imagine that will play in to the planning. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Why is there so much speculation about not opening all the parks? Unless the economic damage is much worse than the post 9/11 recession (especially with travel), why would they do something like that now when the kept all parks open back then?
 
"El Gran Magnifico"

"El Gran Magnifico"

Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
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Spanish Flu - 1918
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
ifan said:
As a follow-up, I applaud NY for providing a lot more transparency than other states. Daily updates on hospitalization rates, ICU rates, # of discharges. Their website is also a lot more slick than other state websites. I enjoy watching Cuomo's press conferences.

That being said, It would be helpful to the public if they lowered their projections based on more recent models and gave the general public the most realistic scenarios. It also encourages us that our social distancing is working and has been flattening the curve. Their former worst case scenarios are nearly impossible, now, even if a lot of people are still going to die.
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I haven't looked at NY but Florida's dashboard is fully transparent and informative. Florida gives you testing, cases, deaths and hospitalizations by county if you want to look at that level.
 
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