Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Hillsborough county (Tampa) has finally decided what they will be doing -

 

[EricsBiscuit]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

so it looks like this might peak in 2-3 WEEKS, not moths, in the UK. The guy who made the imperial model just corrected himself.

 

[DisneyCane]

You can't prove a hypothetical so you will just have to be satisfied that we intentionally destroyed the economy for "something" and it's "better than it would have been". Remember, experts said it so apparently you shouldn't question it.

Don't forget that you should ignore the contradictions stated by the most respected expert (or at least it seems that way by media reports), Dr. Fauci over the time since the task force was formed.

Nobody has any idea what would occur if none of these measures were implemented. I'm hoping Pakistan stays the course on their attitude of not locking down and protecting the elderly so we can see the result.

 

[LittleBuford]

Trust who you want but they are making drastic (and quite possibly unconstitutional) decisions based upon incomplete data. I don't agree that a country (or the world) should be shut down and turned into a police state when nobody even knows how many people have been infected.

For the last time (from me, at least), it isn’t about hypothetical numbers or death rates. It’s about the strain that even the current known cases are actually—not theoretically, but actually—putting on the world’s health services, a strain that threatens to get much, much worse without drastic measures being taken to flatten the curve.

 

[21stamps]

Trust who you want but they are making drastic (and quite possibly unconstitutional) decisions based upon incomplete data. I don't agree that a country (or the world) should be shut down and turned into a police state when nobody even knows how many people have been infected.

I think each state needs to reassess the situation in the next 2 weeks.., then make decisions. I agree with the president that in some areas maybe certain things can open back up... However, I also agree with Dr Acton that it’s too hard to know without test.. so, imo, we need to figure out how to get more tests!!

 

[hopemax]

I’m struggling with this, greatly. In the conference they say that April even into May will be the spike... which means it’s more and more likely that business will remain closed or modified... which means more people furloughed or laid off...and what does it mean for students and athletes? There’s so many factors here.
If we’re looking at a June date, then what??? I can’t imagine how we, as a country, can regroup and repair if that happens.

This is a war, without the guns and the tanks, and an enemy we can see. Wars last for years with the same effects. Businesses shuttered, people scared to leave their homes, and those last for years. This is something we have not have had to deal with for generations. Even our wars have happened "over there." But guess what, eventually the survivors pick up the pieces and move forward. It won't be easy, it won't be overnight, but to give into the fear that we are screwed? Our country, our citizens have lived through much worse. Certainly we can live through this.

 

[GoofGoof]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epid...admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

so it looks like this might peak in 2-3 WEEKS, not moths, in the UK. The guy who made the imperial model just corrected himself.

In the US they were predicting a peak around 30 days from now or a little sooner. Seems to line up close to the 2-3 weeks here.

 

[DisneyCane]

For the last time (from me, at least), it isn’t about hypothetical numbers or death rates. It’s about the strain that even the current known cases are actually—not theoretically, but actually—putting on the world’s health services, a strain that threatens to get much, much worse without drastic measures being taken to flatten the curve.

Nobody knows what the strain level would be if these actions weren't taken. In my opinion, there is an acceptable level of strain on the healthcare systems and an acceptable number of indirect fatalities to avoid living in a police state. If I wanted to know what it felt like to live in North Korea, I'd move there.

 

[MrPromey]

I don't think the research says the species jump comes from eating the meat of the wild animals (bats aren't particularly rare or exotic). I think it's more from the unsanitary conditions. My thought is that when you have bat blood spraying around and puddling on the ground mixed with who knows what else, it presents an opportunity for something that has infected the bat to be aerosolized and inhaled by a human. A stroke of bad luck virus mutation that allows it to infect human cells and you have a novel virus. Proper sanitary handling and cooking of these meats would likely prevent this from happening.

From what I've read, it is believed to have come from a "wet" market where exactly what you're describing is thought to have happened:

There are plenty of links to articles about this but here's one from NPR (I chose semi-randomly):

Why They're Called 'Wet Markets' — And What Health Risks They Might Pose

A wet market is a complex of stalls selling fish, meat and wild animals. One such market in Wuhan has been linked to the current outbreak of coronavirus.

www.npr.org

From some of the pictures of the conditions you can find of these places, it's a wonder there isn't a new pandemic coming out of one of them at least weekly.

 

[21stamps]

This is a war, without the guns and the tanks, and an enemy we can see. Wars last for years with the same effects. Businesses shuttered, people scared to leave their homes, and those last for years. This is something we have not have had to deal with for generations. Even our wars have happened "over there." But guess what, eventually the survivors pick up the pieces and move forward. It won't be easy, it won't be overnight, but to give into the fear that we are screwed? Our country, our citizens have lived through much worse. Certainly we can live through this.

there’s nothing comparable to this time. We are in unchartered territory.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Also common sense that it is possible to do things that isolate the most vulnerable demographics without locking everybody else down.

Then what is the percentage of the population that is high risk and how do you isolate them?

 

[DisneyCane]

I think each state needs to reassess the situation in the next 2 weeks.., then make decisions. I agree with the president that in some areas maybe certain things can open back up... However, I also agree with Dr Acton that it’s too hard to know without test.. so, imo, we need to figure out how to get more tests!!

It's not about getting more tests, it's about a different test. The test that is needed and is being created is a serology test to determine if somebody has already had the virus or is asymptomatic and currently has it. Only then can it be reasonably estimated what the denominator in all of these equations actually is.

 

[GoofGoof]

Then what is the percentage of the population that is high risk and how do you isolate them?

I asked that 27 pages ago...radio silence. I asked how much the economy would have been impacted even if the government did nothing? No response on that either.

 

[MrPromey]

People die by the over hundred thousand every single day. Those who don't die need to live life, both now and after this "crisis" has passed.

3 of my wife's 4 siblings died young (all under 40) and unexpectedly over the course of 4 years. Of course we mourned but we also continued living and most certainly cared about our next trip to WDW and other vacations/recreation.

Assuming that the people that die from this virus wouldn't have died from another cause in roughly the same timeframe (which is certainly possible for the 80+ population), the deaths from this virus represent around a 2% increase from the normal number of daily deaths in the world.

Yes, all death is sad but I prefer to live every day to its fullest because any day could be my last and adding COVID-19 into the mix doesn't make the likelihood all that much higher that it will be.

Well, 2% was enough for a fantasy drama that left people feeling kicked-in-the-gut miserable each week on HBO:

The Leftovers | Official Website for the HBO Series | HBO.com

The official website for The Leftovers on HBO, featuring interviews, schedule information, behind the scenes exclusives, and more.

www.hbo.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Then what is the percentage of the population that is high risk and how do you isolate them?

You recommend that people over 65 or people that have preexisting health issues stay at home. Provide some kind of "quarantine leave" if they are employed but that they will only qualify for if their condition is verified to be high risk and verify that they have the condition. Then, recommend that anybody coming into contact with the isolated population take precautions in their presence.

However, you don't order it. You let people have the freedom to determine if they want to take the risk or not.

 

[21stamps]

It's not about getting more tests, it's about a different test. The test that is needed and is being created is a serology test to determine if somebody has already had the virus or is asymptomatic and currently has it. Only then can it be reasonably estimated what the denominator in all of these equations actually is.

They are working on it, that was expressed today too. Hopefully it happens, but I think that’s farther out.

 

[DisneyCane]

Then what is the percentage of the population that is high risk and how do you isolate them?

I answered above how to do it. I don't know the percentage but it is far less than the 100% living in simulated North Korea right now.

 

[Andrew C]

Amazing how people seem to run to either extreme in this case, rather than looking in the middle. Hopefully experts in the taskforce will provide the information that POTUS needs in order to find a right balance after we end the "15 days to slow the spread." This letter to the governors today may give us a small piece of what they may be thinking in the near future...

READ: President Trump's Letter To Governors On New Coronavirus Guidelines

Trump said his administration is working on new guidelines for governments to use when making decisions on relaxing or increasing coronavirus measures.

www.npr.org

 

[LittleBuford]

You have admitted that you were late to the party.. you didn’t agree with extreme actions in the beginning, though your reasons were not about economics. So maybe ease up on others? There are a lot of people here who are worried about the economy, and want to make sure that this whole thing doesn’t end up killing life as we know it, for good.

Yes, I severely underestimated the threat posed by the virus, but I have never disagreed with any of the measures recommended by the medical community. On the contrary, it’s precisely in response to these evolving recommendations that my own understanding of the crisis has shifted.

I don’t fault anyone for being worried about the economy. I am too. But I have very little patience for flippant remarks that treat the lives of the elderly and infirm as expendable.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, I severely underestimated the threat posed by the virus, but I have never disagreed with any of the measures recommended by the medical community. On the contrary, it’s precisely in response to these evolving recommendations that my own understanding of the crisis has shifted.

I don’t fault anyone for being worried about the economy. I am too. But I have very little patience for flippant remarks that treat the lives of the elderly and infirm as expendable.

You are looking at this rationally so changing your mind when more information is available makes total sense. Unfortunately a lot of people view this through their political lenses so you can never change your mind, just dig in no matter what information is presented.