Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Here’s where I’m confused, how are the models predicting a peak of 6-8k Ohioans per day, when in the same breath they say that we have no idea how many people are infected right now???
I’m trying to understand this.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" is a famous quote to remember.
On March 12, the now-famous Dr. Amy Acton said that over 1% of the Ohio population (or >117,000 people) had the disease. Here we are 2 weeks later. Ohio has confirmed 704 positive cases and 10 dead, by the last numbers I saw. So, was she full of crap? Was the model just that terribly wrong? Or is this a good thing and the mortality rate is <0.01%?
My guess is that it's probably mostly the first two with a little of the third. Btu I still think it was a pretty irresponsible thing to say.