Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
It's a comparison between real group and placebo group. The placebo group shows that 109 cases out of 5000 are expected. The real group had 5 cases out of 1000 so the booster prevented 104 out of 109 cases (95.4%).
That makes sense, thank you. I was hoping to figure out lasting efficacy of the two doses but I guess that’s not possible with this data.

Edited… I’m still confused, wouldn’t the efficacy rate still be too low because they are comparing it against vaccinated individuals rather than unvaccinated?

If they compared it to the unvaccinated it would be much higher. 🤔
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Can someone explain how they determine the efficacy rate?

5 cases out of 5000 would indicate the booster protected 99.9%, while 109 cases out of 5000 seems to indicate two dose still protected 97.8%. That makes it look like the vaccines are holding up very well several months later.

How do they convert that into efficacy rates?

It’s comparing the number of boosted breakthrough cases vs unboosted cases.

so without booster— 100 cases. With booster-5 cases. Would be 95% efficacy compared to unboosted.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Any owner/operator should be exempt because they won't have over 100 employees. If a trucking company which hires drivers as employees wanted to help drivers be exempt they could set up some kind of arrangement where the driver is a contractor and they lease the truck. They could easily make it that the contracted rate less the lease fee ends up being the same they were getting paid before.
That’s already illegal.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
That makes sense, thank you. I was hoping to figure out lasting efficacy of the two doses but I guess that’s not possible with this data.

Edited… I’m still confused, wouldn’t the efficacy rate still be too low because they are comparing it against vaccinated individuals rather than unvaccinated?

If they compared it to the unvaccinated it would be much higher. 🤔
Good catch. I read the study summary too fast.

Yes, this is saying boosted has 95% efficacy over 2 doses. It should be higher vs. unvaccinated but there's really no way to figure it out based on the study data. Basically 2% of the 2 dose group were infected over the course of the study period. You'd need an estimate of the percentage unvaccinated who would be infected to know for sure.

If unboosted was 70% effective vs. unvaccinated (just picking a reasonable number), then the unvaccinated would be 363 cases out of 5000 and the booster would be 98.6% effective compared to unvaccinated.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
That’s already illegal.
I don't think it would be. A person is an employee if the company is providing all things necessary to do the job. If they set up an arrangement to lease the truck to the driver (as long as it is a lease rate at market value for the truck) then the driver isn't being provided the equipement.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
That makes sense, thank you. I was hoping to figure out lasting efficacy of the two doses but I guess that’s not possible with this data.

Edited… I’m still confused, wouldn’t the efficacy rate still be too low because they are comparing it against vaccinated individuals rather than unvaccinated?

If they compared it to the unvaccinated it would be much higher. 🤔
That’s the overall misunderstanding we’ve always had about the efficacy meaning. It’s always been a comparison and never an absolute number.

It’s always meant “given two groups in exactly the same environment, the group given X has Y% better outcome”.

In this case, the comparison was boosted vs not boosted. With boosted being 95% better. It doesn’t tell us anything about vs not vaccinated, or vs some other vaccine. It’s the same issue comparing two vaccine efficacy numbers has. One based on vs Alpha in a country vs another based on a different strain in some other country aren’t directly comparable. Lots of the early comparisons had this issue.

Rope drop strategies at EPCOT and their impact on dinner dining reservations 20 years ago vs today are different. The thing you did back then to get a dinner reservation doesn’t work at all now.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
It’s comparing the number of boosted breakthrough cases vs unboosted cases.

so without booster— 100 cases. With booster-5 cases. Would be 95% efficacy compared to unboosted.
I wish they’d break this down to more simplistic terms… I found a study from last month that says two dose Pfizer (what I have) is only 47% affective against breakthrough cases after 6 months but is still 93% affective against serious cases (hospitalization and death) after 6 months.

What does that mean in simple terms? 1 in a 1000 chance of getting seriously ill? 1 in a million chance? 1 in 10,000,000?

From a stopping the spread standpoint I get why the highest possible efficacy is important but from a personal, I don’t want to end up in the hospital, standpoint I’d love to know the current odds.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I wish they’d break this down to more simplistic terms… I found a study from last month that says two dose Pfizer (what I have) is only 47% affective against breakthrough cases after 6 months but is still 93% affective against serious cases (hospitalization and death) after 6 months.

What does that mean in simple terms? 1 in a 1000 chance of getting seriously ill? 1 in a million chance? 1 in 10,000,000?

From a stopping the spread standpoint I get why the highest possible efficacy is important but from a personal, I don’t want to end up in the hospital, standpoint I’d love to know the current odds.

Impossible to analyze along those lines because it would be dependent of the amount of community spread.
For example… if you’re vaccinated and only exposed to the virus 1 time per year, maybe there is a 1 in a million chance of getting infected and seriously ill.
But if you’re exposed to 100 covid cases per day, even though you’re vaccinated, you might still have a 1 in 50 chance of becoming seriously ill.

that’s why it is important we don’t solely protect against hospitalization and death — controlling community spread is essential for ultimately preventing hospitalization and death.
And as shown by the study, at least as to Pfizer, and at least for a few months, a booster suppresses cases with 95% effectiveness compared to non-vaccinated.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
What does that mean in simple terms?
It’s hard to say, since there are so many external factors.

It’s a statistical comparison using two groups acting in roughly the same way with roughly the same amount of exposure. When you change those, the individual effectiveness impact changes. Say a study and analysis was done where everyone stayed home, got delivery, and went almost full hermit. That would give a number based on those conditions. If you counted on that number, but then went full on swimming in virus laden air with huge crowds and no ventilation, the effect would be very different. This is why studies need large numbers and try to create a more common generic environment. To control other effects out of the analysis. They’re still only as good as the environment they’re done in and how those people behave along with the virus strain in circulation.

That’s why we say the vaccine reduces risk, not eliminates it. Comparatively the risk to someone vaccinated is way lower in the same circumstances vs someone unvaccinated. But, it’s not a force field.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
I don't think it would be. A person is an employee if the company is providing all things necessary to do the job. If they set up an arrangement to lease the truck to the driver (as long as it is a lease rate at market value for the truck) then the driver isn't being provided the equipement.
They obviously are providing the equipment (and is a game used by people trying to skirt the rules) plus there are other tests used to determine if a person is actually an employee such as availability. The trucking company would have to lease the vehicle and freely allow the driver to work as desired and for others.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I think this COVID situation is about to get MUCH worse in a couple months. Why you ask? It has very little to do with the virus itself and everything to do with the fact that our testing can be very misleading.

Let me paint this picture… beginning January 4th the mandatory vaccination program goes into effect. Obviously, those wishing to not participate can opt for weekly testing. Here’s where things get messy: you can have COVID (even an asymptotic case) months ago and yet when you go to take a test the week of January 4th you can still test positive!!! Obviously this will cause an artificial “spike” in cases and everyone will panic even though there may be a fairly high percentage of positive testers that are no longer contagious! Think this is far fetched? Here’s an piece from MIT to back me up: https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/03/still-contagious
So how does one avoid the testing to not have The problem?

…hmmm…if only there was a way?
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes


Surgeon General Vivek Murthy warned Americans on Sunday of a possible uptick in COVID-19 cases as the winter season approaches while reiterating the urge for people to get vaccinated.

"A couple of things that are critical, though, for people to keep in mind, and number one is if you are vaccinated ... your chances of both getting sick and transmitting the virus to someone else are much, much lower," Murthy told "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace. "So this makes it all the more important as winter approaches to get vaccinated."

Murthy urged Americans to get booster shots in anticipation of an uptick in cases over the holidays.

The Biden administration in September recommended booster doses for most Americans who received a coronavirus vaccine in order to combat waning immunity and the prevalence of the delta variant.

Top administration health officials said people would need boosters beginning eight months after their second dose of either the Pfizer and BioNTech or Moderna vaccine.

California, Colorado and New Mexico have approved booster shots for all adults over the age of 18, which Murthy encouraged.

"What people should know, though, is that the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] has already made millions of people eligible for booster shots, people who are above 65, who have other illnesses that put them at higher risk, and who are at higher risk for exposure based on where they live or work," Murthy said.

"As winter approaches again and as people get prepared for the holidays ... we should be prepared for the fact that there may be an uptick in cases that we see in various parts of the country with cold weather," Murthy told Wallace.


As Europe finds itself at the center of the Covid-19 pandemic once again, experts say it should serve as a warning to the U.S. and other countries about the coronavirus’s unremitting nature.

Case numbers have soared across the continent — more than 50 percent last month — and the worrying trend has continued this month as winter begins to bite.

Dr. Hans Kluge, the director of the World Health Organization’s Europe region, warned Nov. 4 that the region was "back at the epicenter of the pandemic," and his words proved prescient.

The WHO said Friday that nearly 2 million cases were reported across Europe in the previous week — the most the region has had in a single week since the pandemic began.

In recent weeks, Germany reported record daily numbers of new infections, with more than 50,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The Netherlands also reported more than 16,000 cases — the country’s most since the pandemic began — prompting the government to begin a partial lockdown Saturday that is set to last at least three weeks.
As case numbers surged toward the end of last month, Belgium reimposed some Covid restrictions, including a requirement to wear masks in public places. People also have to show the country’s Covid-19 pass to enter bars, restaurants and fitness clubs. The passport shows that they have been fully vaccinated, have had recent negative tests or have recently recovered from the disease.

The country nonetheless recorded more than 15,000 daily cases last Monday.

Despite the surge, daily death rates in all three countries have remained relatively stable compared with past spikes, and experts have credited high vaccine uptake for weakening the link between the numbers of cases and hospitalizations and deaths.

Download the NBC News app for breaking news and politics

"Luckily, the high vaccination coverage limits the death toll and hospitalizations there to a large extent," Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist and biostatistician at KU Leuven, a university in Belgium, said Wednesday in an email.

Belgium, which reported hundreds of deaths at the start of the pandemic and then again last autumn, when a second wave of cases forced a national lockdown, has had its "hospital capacity tested" in recent weeks, Wenseleers said. But overall deaths appear largely to have been decoupled from high case rates, he said.

'Truly disastrous'

However, the same cannot be said for Eastern Europe, where, he said, the situation is "truly disastrous."

Over the last three weeks, Romania, with 591; Bulgaria, with 334; and Latvia, with 64, have reported record daily death numbers, according to Johns Hopkins data. Case numbers have also surged.

Saying the surge was "worrying," Wenseleers said he believed low vaccine uptake and high vaccine hesitancy were largely to blame.

"It’s not due to lack of vaccines," he said, noting that the joint procurement of vaccines at the European Union level meant all 27 member states "were able to buy equivalent quantities of vaccines."

"Despite having access to vaccines, those countries did not manage to convince their population to get vaccinated," he said.

At least 1 in 3 people in countries in eastern Europe do not trust the health care system, compared to an average of 18 percent across the EU, a European Commission poll known as the Eurobarometer found, Reuters reported.

Romania and Bulgaria are among the countries with the lowest rates of vaccine uptake across the continent, according to the EU’s vaccination tracker.

The latest data showed that less than 23 percent of the adult population in Bulgaria had been fully vaccinated, while just over 25 percent had had at least one shot. In Romania, just under 34 percent of the population above age 18 had been fully vaccinated, while almost 38 percent had had at least one dose.

The Eurobarometer poll showed that respondents in both countries were among the least likely to express enthusiasm for getting vaccinated.

The vaccination tracker also showed that other Eastern European countries have low vaccination rates compared to their Western neighbors.

That "means that high case rates there translate [into] a very high death toll," Wenseleers said.

Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London, said that as the first winter with the delta variant approaches, he was "not sure if people in Eastern Europe appreciate how punishing the pandemic continues to be in the time of delta."

"It’s unremitting," he said. With some Eastern European countries "at the extreme end of vaccine hesitancy," he added, "there’s no possibility of dealing with this pandemic under these conditions."

In Austria, which has long been a bridge between east and west, the government ordered a nationwide lockdown for unvaccinated people Sunday to slow the fast spread of the coronavirus.

The move means unvaccinated people older than 12 will be banned from leaving their homes from midnight Sunday, except for basic activities like working, food shopping, going for walks — or getting their shots.

“It’s our job as the government of Austria to protect the people," Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg told reporters Sunday in Vienna. “Therefore we decided that starting Monday ... there will be a lockdown for the unvaccinated.”

Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding, a senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, said the high death rates should be “a warning” for other countries with low vaccination rates.

While he said he believed the most effective approach is multipronged, including coronavirus measures like mask-wearing and social distancing, he said vaccines and booster shots are critical to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

Wenseleers agreed, saying people in the U.S. should take heed of the situation unfolding across Europe.

U.S. states both with high and low vaccination rates could take Europe’s case numbers as "a sign that the U.S. might still see resurgences, as well," he said.
On both sides of the Atlantic, "convincing as many people to get vaccinated should be the top priority," along with "setting up booster campaigns" for those most at risk, he said.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Round people up and forcibly vaccinate them?
…I have a net…
Anyone not taking advantage of the $10 Publix gift card incentive for the flu shot is basically turning down free money. I will take a loaded chicken tenders sub with a cold drink to wash it down!
Sadly…old school vax like the flu may have more of a chance of a reaction than Pfizer/moderna
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member


Surgeon General Vivek Murthy warned Americans on Sunday of a possible uptick in COVID-19 cases as the winter season approaches while reiterating the urge for people to get vaccinated.

"A couple of things that are critical, though, for people to keep in mind, and number one is if you are vaccinated ... your chances of both getting sick and transmitting the virus to someone else are much, much lower," Murthy told "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace. "So this makes it all the more important as winter approaches to get vaccinated."

Murthy urged Americans to get booster shots in anticipation of an uptick in cases over the holidays.

The Biden administration in September recommended booster doses for most Americans who received a coronavirus vaccine in order to combat waning immunity and the prevalence of the delta variant.

Top administration health officials said people would need boosters beginning eight months after their second dose of either the Pfizer and BioNTech or Moderna vaccine.

California, Colorado and New Mexico have approved booster shots for all adults over the age of 18, which Murthy encouraged.

"What people should know, though, is that the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] has already made millions of people eligible for booster shots, people who are above 65, who have other illnesses that put them at higher risk, and who are at higher risk for exposure based on where they live or work," Murthy said.

"As winter approaches again and as people get prepared for the holidays ... we should be prepared for the fact that there may be an uptick in cases that we see in various parts of the country with cold weather," Murthy told Wallace.


As Europe finds itself at the center of the Covid-19 pandemic once again, experts say it should serve as a warning to the U.S. and other countries about the coronavirus’s unremitting nature.

Case numbers have soared across the continent — more than 50 percent last month — and the worrying trend has continued this month as winter begins to bite.

Dr. Hans Kluge, the director of the World Health Organization’s Europe region, warned Nov. 4 that the region was "back at the epicenter of the pandemic," and his words proved prescient.

The WHO said Friday that nearly 2 million cases were reported across Europe in the previous week — the most the region has had in a single week since the pandemic began.

In recent weeks, Germany reported record daily numbers of new infections, with more than 50,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The Netherlands also reported more than 16,000 cases — the country’s most since the pandemic began — prompting the government to begin a partial lockdown Saturday that is set to last at least three weeks.
As case numbers surged toward the end of last month, Belgium reimposed some Covid restrictions, including a requirement to wear masks in public places. People also have to show the country’s Covid-19 pass to enter bars, restaurants and fitness clubs. The passport shows that they have been fully vaccinated, have had recent negative tests or have recently recovered from the disease.

The country nonetheless recorded more than 15,000 daily cases last Monday.

Despite the surge, daily death rates in all three countries have remained relatively stable compared with past spikes, and experts have credited high vaccine uptake for weakening the link between the numbers of cases and hospitalizations and deaths.

Download the NBC News app for breaking news and politics

"Luckily, the high vaccination coverage limits the death toll and hospitalizations there to a large extent," Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist and biostatistician at KU Leuven, a university in Belgium, said Wednesday in an email.

Belgium, which reported hundreds of deaths at the start of the pandemic and then again last autumn, when a second wave of cases forced a national lockdown, has had its "hospital capacity tested" in recent weeks, Wenseleers said. But overall deaths appear largely to have been decoupled from high case rates, he said.

'Truly disastrous'

However, the same cannot be said for Eastern Europe, where, he said, the situation is "truly disastrous."

Over the last three weeks, Romania, with 591; Bulgaria, with 334; and Latvia, with 64, have reported record daily death numbers, according to Johns Hopkins data. Case numbers have also surged.

Saying the surge was "worrying," Wenseleers said he believed low vaccine uptake and high vaccine hesitancy were largely to blame.

"It’s not due to lack of vaccines," he said, noting that the joint procurement of vaccines at the European Union level meant all 27 member states "were able to buy equivalent quantities of vaccines."

"Despite having access to vaccines, those countries did not manage to convince their population to get vaccinated," he said.

At least 1 in 3 people in countries in eastern Europe do not trust the health care system, compared to an average of 18 percent across the EU, a European Commission poll known as the Eurobarometer found, Reuters reported.

Romania and Bulgaria are among the countries with the lowest rates of vaccine uptake across the continent, according to the EU’s vaccination tracker.

The latest data showed that less than 23 percent of the adult population in Bulgaria had been fully vaccinated, while just over 25 percent had had at least one shot. In Romania, just under 34 percent of the population above age 18 had been fully vaccinated, while almost 38 percent had had at least one dose.

The Eurobarometer poll showed that respondents in both countries were among the least likely to express enthusiasm for getting vaccinated.

The vaccination tracker also showed that other Eastern European countries have low vaccination rates compared to their Western neighbors.

That "means that high case rates there translate [into] a very high death toll," Wenseleers said.

Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London, said that as the first winter with the delta variant approaches, he was "not sure if people in Eastern Europe appreciate how punishing the pandemic continues to be in the time of delta."

"It’s unremitting," he said. With some Eastern European countries "at the extreme end of vaccine hesitancy," he added, "there’s no possibility of dealing with this pandemic under these conditions."

In Austria, which has long been a bridge between east and west, the government ordered a nationwide lockdown for unvaccinated people Sunday to slow the fast spread of the coronavirus.

The move means unvaccinated people older than 12 will be banned from leaving their homes from midnight Sunday, except for basic activities like working, food shopping, going for walks — or getting their shots.

“It’s our job as the government of Austria to protect the people," Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg told reporters Sunday in Vienna. “Therefore we decided that starting Monday ... there will be a lockdown for the unvaccinated.”

Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding, a senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, said the high death rates should be “a warning” for other countries with low vaccination rates.

While he said he believed the most effective approach is multipronged, including coronavirus measures like mask-wearing and social distancing, he said vaccines and booster shots are critical to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

Wenseleers agreed, saying people in the U.S. should take heed of the situation unfolding across Europe.

U.S. states both with high and low vaccination rates could take Europe’s case numbers as "a sign that the U.S. might still see resurgences, as well," he said.
On both sides of the Atlantic, "convincing as many people to get vaccinated should be the top priority," along with "setting up booster campaigns" for those most at risk, he said.
The longer things go…the better chance that something else pops up.

the US should be 100% eligible vaccinated and shipping the stuff overseas now…there has been plenty of time.

“my personal choice” should be answered with “make it somewhere else…I hear it’s summer in Brazil 👍🏻

suffering fools is so tiresome
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Round people up and forcibly vaccinate them?

There are obviously implementation issues, but the thought is there. You don’t have to get vaccinated, that’s a choice. However, if you’re not, you don’t get to interact with the rest of society.

Since they don’t include under 12, I assume they don’t include those who cannot be vaccinated.

Nobody who wants everyone vaccinated equates those who choose not to and those who cannot. It’s only those who chose not to that want to confuse the issue.
 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member

There are obviously implementation issues, but the thought is there. You don’t have to get vaccinated, that’s a choice. However, if you’re not, you don’t get to interact with the rest of society.

Since they don’t include under 12, I assume they don’t include those who cannot be vaccinated.

Nobody who wants everyone vaccinated equates those who choose not to and those who cannot. It’s only those who chose not to that want to confuse the issue.
"Implementation issues" LOL.

You mean like constitutional rights?
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?

There are obviously implementation issues, but the thought is there. You don’t have to get vaccinated, that’s a choice. However, if you’re not, you don’t get to interact with the rest of society.

Since they don’t include under 12, I assume they don’t include those who cannot be vaccinated.

Nobody who wants everyone vaccinated equates those who choose not to and those who cannot. It’s only those who chose not to that want to confuse the issue.
I would rather states mandate vaccines for all than segregate the population in such a manner.
 
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