Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To Catch a Predator?

Reno 911

 

[havoc315]

 

[DisneyCane]

While certainly encouraging, similar (not quite as good) results were seem in the 2 dose studies. The question which isn't answered by this study is does that level of efficacy last significantly longer than it did after 2 doses?

 

[drizgirl]

While certainly encouraging, similar (not quite as good) results were seem in the 2 dose studies. The question which isn't answered by this study is does that level of efficacy last significantly longer than it did after 2 doses?

I'm not really plugged into the details on the studies. Was it ever shown this effective against Delta? Or were the original studies measured against Alpha?

Regardless, they better hope it lasts. I don't see people (in large numbers) continuing to get boosters past maybe the first one even if the data supports it.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

I think this COVID situation is about to get MUCH worse in a couple months. Why you ask? It has very little to do with the virus itself and everything to do with the fact that our testing can be very misleading.

Let me paint this picture… beginning January 4th the mandatory vaccination program goes into effect. Obviously, those wishing to not participate can opt for weekly testing. Here’s where things get messy: you can have COVID (even an asymptotic case) months ago and yet when you go to take a test the week of January 4th you can still test positive!!! Obviously this will cause an artificial “spike” in cases and everyone will panic even though there may be a fairly high percentage of positive testers that are no longer contagious! Think this is far fetched? Here’s an piece from MIT to back me up: https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/03/still-contagious

 

[DisneyFan32]

I think this COVID situation is about to get MUCH worse in a couple months. Why you ask? It has very little to do with the virus itself and everything to do with the fact that our testing can be very misleading.

Let me paint this picture… beginning January 4th the mandatory vaccination program goes into effect. Obviously, those wishing to not participate can opt for weekly testing. Here’s where things get messy: you can have COVID (even an asymptotic case) months ago and yet when you go to take a test the week of January 4th you can still test positive!!! Obviously this will cause an artificial “spike” in cases and everyone will panic even though there may be a fairly high percentage of positive testers that are no longer contagious! Think this is far fetched? Here’s an piece from MIT to back me up: https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/03/still-contagious

I'm scared about this...I don't want this to be happen. Federal Transportation mask mandate for trains, buses, planes and cruises will supposed to be expiring in January 2022 soon. I mean what this could means for massive spike aka new variants as more dangerous to put ending our lives like it's like end of the world. COVID situation would not MUCH worst by January 2022. You can't listen to the news about now. Thanksgiving and Christmas is coming soon, there is no way we will force unvaccinated people to get vaccinated. There could've be new dangerous variants to be found out there in the world.

 

[disneygeek90]

I think this COVID situation is about to get MUCH worse in a couple months. Why you ask? It has very little to do with the virus itself and everything to do with the fact that our testing can be very misleading.

Let me paint this picture… beginning January 4th the mandatory vaccination program goes into effect. Obviously, those wishing to not participate can opt for weekly testing. Here’s where things get messy: you can have COVID (even an asymptotic case) months ago and yet when you go to take a test the week of January 4th you can still test positive!!! Obviously this will cause an artificial “spike” in cases and everyone will panic even though there may be a fairly high percentage of positive testers that are no longer contagious! Think this is far fetched? Here’s an piece from MIT to back me up: https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/03/still-contagious

From my experience of multiple people at work testing positive a couple months ago, it’s the PCR test that can show a lingering positive as that test is way more sensitive. The rapid tends to show negative within the 10-14 day range.

My office has already started requiring weekly testing since September, the rapid is acceptable.

 

[dreday3]

From my experience of multiple people at work testing positive a couple months ago, it’s the PCR test that can show a lingering positive as that test is way more sensitive. The rapid tends to show negative within the 10-14 day range.

My office has already started requiring weekly testing since September, the rapid is acceptable.

Weekly testing for everyone? Or just unvaccinated?

 

[CLEtoWDW]

From my experience of multiple people at work testing positive a couple months ago, it’s the PCR test that can show a lingering positive as that test is way more sensitive. The rapid tends to show negative within the 10-14 day range.

My office has already started requiring weekly testing since September, the rapid is acceptable.

In a workplace setting that makes total sense. However, don’t forget that those traveling to the US require a negative test to enter. IMO this is going to be almost impossible to navigate with the inaccuracy of the PCRs.

 

[disneygeek90]

Weekly testing for everyone? Or just unvaccinated?

Just unvaccinated. I had to show a picture of my vaccine card.

In a workplace setting that makes total sense. However, don’t forget that those traveling to the US require a negative test to enter. IMO this is going to be almost impossible to navigate with the inaccuracy of the PCRs.

Are PCR’s required for travel? Im going on a cruise tomorrow and rapid or pcr + vaccination is required. I don’t know, but if it’s travel it’s likely something that can be rearranged if needed. Your original comment was pointed toward work testing causing more “cases,” which I don’t think is really an issue.

 

[maui2k7]

Let me paint this picture… beginning January 4th the mandatory vaccination program goes into effect.

That is assuming the testing/vaccine mandate actually goes into effect on Jan 4th and does not get shot down completely in the courts. It currently is blocked by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals and will likely go to the Supreme Court.

 

[DCBaker]

Just unvaccinated. I had to show a picture of my vaccine card.

Are PCR’s required for travel? Im going on a cruise tomorrow and rapid or pcr + vaccination is required. I don’t know, but if it’s travel it’s likely something that can be rearranged if needed. Your original comment was pointed toward work testing causing more “cases,” which I don’t think is really an issue.

No. CDC says Antigen is fine (also see quote below) -

More...

"Antigen tests are relatively inexpensive, and most can be used at the point-of-care. Most of the currently authorized tests return results in approximately 15–30 minutes. Antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 are generally less sensitive than real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and other nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) for detecting the presence of viral nucleic acid. However, NAATs can remain positive for weeks to months after initial infection and can detect levels of viral nucleic acid even when virus cannot be cultured, suggesting that the presence of viral nucleic acid may not always indicate contagiousness."

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

 

[disneygeek90]

No. CDC says Antigen is fine (also see quote below) -

View attachment 600603

More...

"Antigen tests are relatively inexpensive, and most can be used at the point-of-care. Most of the currently authorized tests return results in approximately 15–30 minutes. Antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 are generally less sensitive than real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and other nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) for detecting the presence of viral nucleic acid. However, NAATs can remain positive for weeks to months after initial infection and can detect levels of viral nucleic acid even when virus cannot be cultured, suggesting that the presence of viral nucleic acid may not always indicate contagiousness."

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

Makes sense, thanks for tracking it down!

 

[Nubs70]

I think this COVID situation is about to get MUCH worse in a couple months. Why you ask? It has very little to do with the virus itself and everything to do with the fact that our testing can be very misleading.

Let me paint this picture… beginning January 4th the mandatory vaccination program goes into effect. Obviously, those wishing to not participate can opt for weekly testing. Here’s where things get messy: you can have COVID (even an asymptotic case) months ago and yet when you go to take a test the week of January 4th you can still test positive!!! Obviously this will cause an artificial “spike” in cases and everyone will panic even though there may be a fairly high percentage of positive testers that are no longer contagious! Think this is far fetched? Here’s an piece from MIT to back me up: https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/03/still-contagious

If you think the trucking/supply chain is bad now, wait till 50% of the already reduced trucking capacity is eliminated.

 

[danlb_2000]

If you think the trucking/supply chain is bad now, wait till 50% of the already reduced trucking capacity is eliminated.

Fortunately a lot of truckers are exempt from the new rule.

 

[DisneyCane]

I'm not really plugged into the details on the studies. Was it ever shown this effective against Delta? Or were the original studies measured against Alpha?

Regardless, they better hope it lasts. I don't see people (in large numbers) continuing to get boosters past maybe the first one even if the data supports it.

The original studies were against Alpha (or whatever was floating around at the end of 2020). Nobody really knows what the effectiveness vs. infection any of them were against Delta within a short period of the second dose because it wasn't studied.

If it doesn't last very long the booster uptake will be low. If it's needed every 6-8 months the only people who will get it that frequently are those who are extremely scared of COVID. A once a year like a flu shot would probably be similar to flu shot uptake.

Mandating even one booster will lead to many lawsuits. If they tried to mandate multiple shots per year there might be a civil war.

 

[DisneyCane]

If you think the trucking/supply chain is bad now, wait till 50% of the already reduced trucking capacity is eliminated.

Fortunately a lot of truckers are exempt from the new rule.

Any owner/operator should be exempt because they won't have over 100 employees. If a trucking company which hires drivers as employees wanted to help drivers be exempt they could set up some kind of arrangement where the driver is a contractor and they lease the truck. They could easily make it that the contracted rate less the lease fee ends up being the same they were getting paid before.

 

[danlb_2000]

Any owner/operator should be exempt because they won't have over 100 employees. If a trucking company which hires drivers as employees wanted to help drivers be exempt they could set up some kind of arrangement where the driver is a contractor and they lease the truck. They could easily make it that the contracted rate less the lease fee ends up being the same they were getting paid before.

They don't even have to go that far, as long as the driver doesn't enter the "workplace" they are exempt, so if a trucker is only alone in his truck and doesn't enter one of the company's buildings then the are exempt. This exemption may also lead to more working from home again.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Can someone explain how they determine the efficacy rate?

5 cases out of 5000 would indicate the booster protected 99.9%, while 109 cases out of 5000 seems to indicate two dose still protected 97.8%. That makes it look like the vaccines are holding up very well several months later.

How do they convert that into efficacy rates?

 

[DisneyCane]

Can someone explain how they determine the efficacy rate?

5 cases out of 5000 would indicate the booster protected 99.9%, while 109 cases out of 5000 seems to indicate two dose still protected 97.8%. That makes it look like the vaccines are holding up very well several months later.

How do they convert that into efficacy rates?

It's a comparison between real group and placebo group. The placebo group shows that 109 cases out of 5000 are expected. The real group had 5 cases out of 1000 so the booster prevented 104 out of 109 cases (95.4%).

Edit for a little more:
There's also a confidence interval involved depending on the study size and other variables. If they repeat the exact same study with new people, it's unlikely to get the exact same level of effectiveness.