Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

They are currently only including 12+ in the stats. I'm sure that the 80%+ fully vaccinated states above will be at 85% within 6 weeks or so now that 5+ is eligible. There's still 10% or so with one shot that can add to that number in the ensuing time as well.

Let's hope they can hold their stuff together for the next 6-8 weeks then and get there. Since, nobody has high enough vaccination rate yet.

State 12+ Population
VT 81.3% 71.8%
ME 80.8% 71.2%
MA 80.2% 70.2%
RI 81.6% 71.5%
CT 81.7% 71.2%

All of them need at 13% plus swing. Best case, 6 weeks from now is Christmas and 8 is end of the first week of January.

We know one dose wasn't great against Alpha and was practically nothing against Delta. We're counting on all those 5-11 year olds to treat Turkey Day as "unvaccinated" even though they're "2 weeks after first shot".

We're just not highly vaccinated until we are, no matter how much we wanted to be prior to the holidays.

I posted on 10/25 that my county "% of Population ≥ 12 Years of Age" with "At least One Dose" was at 99.9% and 90.8% "Fully Vaccinated". Almost 3 weeks ago, half way through a 6 week time from First Dose to Fully. Only a third if you're conservative and use 8 weeks to get there. Need to move the rate 9 points to line them up. Today, we're at 91.9% 12+ Fully vaccinated. It's only moved 1 point in the almost 3 weeks. It's not on track to get there in 8 weeks.

In that same time, Population moved from 77.5% to 78%, a mere half a point.

I'll be amazed (and delighted) if those states are over 85% of population fully vaccinated by 2022. That would be a lovely new year, but I doubt it.

 

[DisneyCane]

Let's hope they can hold their stuff together for the next 6-8 weeks then and get there. Since, nobody has high enough vaccination rate yet.

State 12+ Population
VT 81.3% 71.8%
ME 80.8% 71.2%
MA 80.2% 70.2%
RI 81.6% 71.5%
CT 81.7% 71.2%

All of them need at 13% plus swing. Best case, 6 weeks from now is Christmas and 8 is end of the first week of January.

We know one dose wasn't great against Alpha and was practically nothing against Delta. We're counting on all those 5-11 year olds to treat Turkey Day as "unvaccinated" even though they're "2 weeks after first shot".

We're just not highly vaccinated until we are, no matter how much we wanted to be prior to the holidays.

I posted on 10/25 that my county "% of Population ≥ 12 Years of Age" with "At least One Dose" was at 99.9% and 90.8% "Fully Vaccinated". Almost 3 weeks ago, half way through a 6 week time from First Dose to Fully. Only a third if you're conservative and use 8 weeks to get there. Need to move the rate 9 points to line them up. Today, we're at 91.9% 12+ Fully vaccinated. It's only moved 1 point in the almost 3 weeks. It's not on track to get there in 8 weeks.

In that same time, Population moved from 77.5% to 78%, a mere half a point.

I'll be amazed (and delighted) if those states are over 85% of population fully vaccinated by 2022. That would be a lovely new year, but I doubt it.

There is definitely somewhat of an issue of people not returning for dose #2.

 

[Andrew C]

There is definitely somewhat of an issue of people not returning for dose #2.

Heck, I would be thrilled if the majority of the unvaccinated adult population takes just dose. It is not what we consider full protection but it definitely provides some protection. I think a CDC study from the spring shows that one dose of moderna was 80% effective. I imagine that is less with delta and decreases over time, but better than masks. Where we are right now with so many adults unwilling to take anything..one dose is good enough IMO. I wouldn't have has this opinion in the summer, but again, look where we are...

 

[Bob Harlem]

Orange county continues the drop in cases and positivity.



Was 3.15% a week ago.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I am not saying this to be mean, so take with a kind tone totally. Guess who I never listen to? I asked this to simply say, you can ignore him. When this whole fiasco started I never listened much to anyone but our local Dr. Acton who was quite literally run out by covid hoax believers. I follow guidance and what many medical people say.

If you don't like him, don't listen. Trust me, less take his words for gospel than you think. Just saying that he's not the one calling the shots. He's a face, not a ruler really. JMO of course.

My TV viewing is back to primarily YouTube and Disney+ now but when the pandemic started, when I was sitting in my home in fear, I sat in front of my TV all day watching the pandemic unfold on the news. Now I’m back to reading the news, and comment sections like this one, to keep up with the latest.

I’ve never disliked Fauci, I just think he’s a victim of the division in America, when a large percent of the country have lost trust in the guy giving the guidance I think it would be smart to have someone else give it.

Are there actually any states with high vaccination rates?

I know there are states with higher than other states vaccination rates. But, are any of them actually "high" on a absolute vs comparative measure?

Currently no, but with 5-12 year olds now approved I think many states will hit 80%+ within a couple months. Hopefully that’ll be high enough, along with some natural immunity, to end this thing.

There is definitely somewhat of an issue of people not returning for dose #2.

This has always puzzled me, caring enough to get the first shot but not caring enough to return for the second? It makes no sense.

 

[havoc315]

Let's hope they can hold their stuff together for the next 6-8 weeks then and get there. Since, nobody has high enough vaccination rate yet.

Sadly, there has always been a misunderstanding about vaccination rate as it related to herd immunity.
If you need 80% population immunity for herd immunity, for example, then you would need 80% of the population vaccinated with a 100% effective vaccine.
But the vaccines are not 100% effective. If vaccines were 90% effective, and you needed a population immunity level of 80%, then you would need 90% of the population vaccinated with the 90% effective vaccine.
But what happens if you need 80% immunity level, but the vaccine is only 75% effective? Then it's mathematically impossible to ever have a high enough vaccination rate.

Now, combine that with the waning effect of vaccines.... And we see what's happening here and elsewhere.

Israel and parts of the United States were indeed reaching something close to herd immunity in the Spring and early summer.
Let's imagine... pre-Delta... the required immunity level was 70%. We were primarily vaccinating with Pfizer and Moderna... 90%+ effective. As we started to vaccinate 70%+ of adults with 90% effective vaccines, plus some immunity already existing in many unvaccinated, we started to hit herd immunity. Israel is the extreme example -- they were down to a handful of cases per day.

Then 2 things happened --Delta, being more contagious --- 70% immunity was no longer enough. Now, you needed 80%, or whatever. And at the same time, the effect of the vaccines started to wane.

And thus, the Delta spikes. And as vaccines continue to wane, no level of unboosted vaccination will ever get us "vaccinated enough."

Which brings us back to the Israel example -- They boosted significantly. The majority of adults are now boosted in Israel. And sure enough, the disease spread is dropping tremendously. As those boosters get the vaccine efficacy back to 90%+.

 

[havoc315]

The reduction of spread by stacking mitigations is not additive. If due to the lower likelihood of being infected and the shorter time of being infectious, being vaccinated reduces my chance of being a spreader by 70% (I'm making up a number like Fauci) and if wearing a mask reduces my chance of spreading the virus by 30% (probably somewhere around reality but again, not fact based), being vaccinated and wearing a mask will reduce my chance of being a spreader by 79%.

If these estimates are within the realm of reality I don't feel that I should be subjected to discomfort for such a small (11%) improvement in reduced risk to somebody else especially when that other person could have chosen to be vaccinated as well making the chance of me transmitting to them quite low.

While I won't pretend to know the exact numbers, your analysis is solid. Totally correct -- the added effect of masks on top of vaccination would indeed be minor.
But I still disagree with your conclusion -- When spread is high, I believe we should be willing to accept rather minor inconveniences, such as mask wearing, to do anything a bit extra to bring down the spread. Wearing a mask isn't nearly as bad as a lock down.

 

[DisneyCane]

Which brings us back to the Israel example -- They boosted significantly. The majority of adults are now boosted in Israel. And sure enough, the disease spread is dropping tremendously. As those boosters get the vaccine efficacy back to 90%+.

Can we really say with confidence that the boosting is the reason the cases have declined in Israel and that it isn't just the natural outbreak curve? The Israel curve and the Florida curve look a lot alike and there was no boosting going on in FL until very recently. We may have to accept that due to the increased R0 of Delta that herd immunity is not possible.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Sadly, there has always been a misunderstanding about vaccination rate as it related to herd immunity.
If you need 80% population immunity for herd immunity, for example, then you would need 80% of the population vaccinated with a 100% effective vaccine.
But the vaccines are not 100% effective. If vaccines were 90% effective, and you needed a population immunity level of 80%, then you would need 90% of the population vaccinated with the 90% effective vaccine.
But what happens if you need 80% immunity level, but the vaccine is only 75% effective? Then it's mathematically impossible to ever have a high enough vaccination rate.

Now, combine that with the waning effect of vaccines.... And we see what's happening here and elsewhere.

Israel and parts of the United States were indeed reaching something close to herd immunity in the Spring and early summer.
Let's imagine... pre-Delta... the required immunity level was 70%. We were primarily vaccinating with Pfizer and Moderna... 90%+ effective. As we started to vaccinate 70%+ of adults with 90% effective vaccines, plus some immunity already existing in many unvaccinated, we started to hit herd immunity. Israel is the extreme example -- they were down to a handful of cases per day.

Then 2 things happened --Delta, being more contagious --- 70% immunity was no longer enough. Now, you needed 80%, or whatever. And at the same time, the effect of the vaccines started to wane.

And thus, the Delta spikes. And as vaccines continue to wane, no level of unboosted vaccination will ever get us "vaccinated enough."

Which brings us back to the Israel example -- They boosted significantly. The majority of adults are now boosted in Israel. And sure enough, the disease spread is dropping tremendously. As those boosters get the vaccine efficacy back to 90%+.

Without Delta I think this would have been over already and I’m still optimistic that the Delta wave will be the last big wave.

The Spanish Flu pandemic ended on its own when it ran out of new hosts (with no immunity) to easily infect, I think (hope) the same will happen with Covid19, fortunately this time we have vaccines that will keep the deaths down while we go through the process. As long as it doesn’t mutate again everyone will have some level of immunity, through vaccine or exposure, that’ll result in it running out of easy hosts to infect.

 

[havoc315]

Can we really say with confidence that the boosting is the reason the cases have declined in Israel and that it isn't just the natural outbreak curve? The Israel curve and the Florida curve look a lot alike and there was no boosting going on in FL until very recently. We may have to accept that due to the increased R0 of Delta that herd immunity is not possible.

View attachment 600248

These things are multi-factorial. Certainly, the "natural curve" is part of the equation. But note the Israel curve is steeper: And something being missed in those numbers, Israel does a LOT more testing than Florida. So Israel's numbers include far more low symptom/asymptomatic cases than the Florida numbers.
You can see this evident in the case and death numbers:
At the top of the curve, Florida had 391 deaths per day correlated to 21,500 cases and Israel had 26 deaths per day correlated to 9,500 cases per day.
So the population of Florida is 21.5 million.. Israel is 9.3 million.
So at the height, both Florida and Israel were reporting 1,000 cases per day, per 1 million people.
Yet -- Florida was reporting 18 deaths per day per million people. Israel was reporting only 2.8 deaths per million people, per day.
So why would Covid be six times more deadly in Florida than in Israel?

Because Israel's more aggressive testing is picking up more infections, and because they have higher vaccination + booster immunity providing even imperfect protection.

 

[havoc315]

Without Delta I think this would have been over already and I’m still optimistic that the Delta wave will be the last big wave.

The Spanish Flu pandemic ended on its own when it ran out of new hosts (with no immunity) to easily infect, I think (hope) the same will happen with Covid19, fortunately this time we have vaccines that will keep the deaths down while we go through the process. As long as it doesn’t mutate again everyone will have some level of immunity, through vaccine or exposure, that’ll result in it running out of easy hosts to infect.

The Spanish Flu pandemic never really ended. It mutated, and became some of the more common flus we see today.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I’ve never disliked Fauci, I just think he’s a victim of the division in America, when a large percent of the country have lost trust in the guy giving the guidance I think it would be smart to have someone else give it.

It's safe to say a lot, probably most, of people who are opposed to Fauci have held that view from day one.

A large number of people were essentially told where their opinion should fall, and since Fauci didn't parrot that view, he was public enemy number one for those people almost instantly.

The people who are dead set in their beliefs were never going to listen to him, and they're not going to listen to someone new. They're a lost cause and it's a reason we see more and more pushing for vaccine passports or mandatory vaccines.

There's no changing many minds.

 

[DisneyCane]

It's safe to say a lot, probably most, of people who are opposed to Fauci have held that view from day one.

A large number of people were essentially told where their opinion should fall, and since Fauci didn't parrot that view, he was public enemy number one for those people almost instantly.

The people who are dead set in their beliefs were never going to listen to him, and they're not going to listen to someone new. They're a lost cause and it's a reason we see more and more pushing for vaccine passports or mandatory vaccines.

There's no changing many minds.

Speaking for me personally, my opinions were developed before they were shared by some politicians. I was against the former President asking for the lockdowns as part of "15 Days to Slow the Spread."

I have also held my views about Fauci from very early on when he said things like (paraphrasing), "don't fly unless you have to for work" or "if you're under 65 now is a great time for a deal on a cruise" only to completely change is message within a very short time.

 

[Andrew C]

Speaking for me personally, my opinions were developed before they were shared by some politicians. I was against the former President asking for the lockdowns as part of "15 Days to Slow the Spread."

I have also held my views about Fauci from very early on when he said things like (paraphrasing), "don't fly unless you have to for work" or "if you're under 65 now is a great time for a deal on a cruise" only to completely change is message within a very short time.

I imagine most Americans didn’t know who the heck Fauci was until after the pandemic started. So to state that people who are not thrilled with him now felt this one from the very beginning doesn’t jive. Again, his own actions are a significant part of why many distrust him. He needs to own that. But never will because some want to constantly blow off any concerns with his performance as unreasonable.

 

[correcaminos]

Bringing this back to Disney, wasn't Borax that powdered soap they formerly used in the restrooms?

I have no idea but I loved that soap!

 

[Disney Boater]

These things are multi-factorial. Certainly, the "natural curve" is part of the equation. But note the Israel curve is steeper: And something being missed in those numbers, Israel does a LOT more testing than Florida. So Israel's numbers include far more low symptom/asymptomatic cases than the Florida numbers.
You can see this evident in the case and death numbers:
At the top of the curve, Florida had 391 deaths per day correlated to 21,500 cases and Israel had 26 deaths per day correlated to 9,500 cases per day.
So the population of Florida is 21.5 million.. Israel is 9.3 million.
So at the height, both Florida and Israel were reporting 1,000 cases per day, per 1 million people.
Yet -- Florida was reporting 18 deaths per day per million people. Israel was reporting only 2.8 deaths per million people, per day.
So why would Covid be six times more deadly in Florida than in Israel?

Because Israel's more aggressive testing is picking up more infections, and because they have higher vaccination + booster immunity providing even imperfect protection.

Around 33% of the population in Florida is over 60 yo
In Israel the population over 60 is around 15%

Doesn't explain your stats away, but there are layers to all of this that get ignored.

 

[Tom P.]

This has always puzzled me, caring enough to get the first shot but not caring enough to return for the second? It makes no sense.

My wife got the first dose but had an allergic reaction and was advised by her doctor not to get the second shot, so she didn't. She has an appointment coming up and she is going to discuss it with him again, now that the FDA and CDC have approved "mixing and matching" vaccines, to see if he has a different opinion now that she could get a different vaccine as her second dose. But that's why she hasn't thus far.

I know that cases like that are probably outliers, but still, not everyone who doesn't get the second dose does so because they don't care enough.

 

[havoc315]

Around 33% of the population in Florida is over 60 yo
In Israel the population over 60 is around 15%

Doesn't explain your stats away, but there are layers to all of this that get ignored.

Exactly why I said it’s multi-factorial. There are lots of other factors I didn’t discuss, many factors still unknown.

 

[mmascari]

Sadly, there has always been a misunderstanding about vaccination rate as it related to herd immunity.
If you need 80% population immunity for herd immunity, for example, then you would need 80% of the population vaccinated with a 100% effective vaccine.
But the vaccines are not 100% effective. If vaccines were 90% effective, and you needed a population immunity level of 80%, then you would need 90% of the population vaccinated with the 90% effective vaccine.
But what happens if you need 80% immunity level, but the vaccine is only 75% effective? Then it's mathematically impossible to ever have a high enough vaccination rate.

Not worried about that math at all, it was baked into the assumptions already. That based on all of those Alpha needed 70%+ something, and now Delta needs 85%+ something of people once you've done all that math to get to the final metric comparison. Both still guesses, maybe it is 90%+ that we really need. They're certainly not way higher than what's really needed.

Nobody in the US is at 85% today.

Israel and parts of the United States were indeed reaching something close to herd immunity in the Spring and early summer.

Assuming I'm reading this right:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Income groups are based on the World Bank classification. A full list of our...

ourworldindata.org

Israel has been sitting near 60% for months. Near 60% isn't really anywhere near 70% and is clearly nowhere near 85%.

The US is just getting to 60% today and was nowhere near it in the spring or early summer. Also, nowhere near 70% or 85%. Getting pretty close to Israel though.

Israel was faster early on to a higher vaccination rate, comparatively. They never got to a high rate absolutely. It's a reporting miss to keep thinking of them as high or leading.


So, we can all agree, you need a high enough vaccination percentage before you tip over and start to have a large impact of reducing transmission. Otherwise it just keeps running rampant in the unvaccinated group. We can also agree that neither Israel, the US, or any individual US state has reached a high vaccination rate yet.

 

[Bullseye1967]

Bringing this back to Disney, wasn't Borax that powdered soap they formerly used in the restrooms?

Yes it was some scary stuff. It took off several layers of skin!