Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mikejs78]

The fact that MMR is 97% effective against measles after 2 doses probably has a lot to do with why you don't see measles outbreaks.

Do you even know what that number means? It means you have a 97% less chance of catching it than an unvaccinated person in similar circumstances. But if you went somewhere that had high spread of measles and a low vaccination rate, your change of catching it would be much higher, although much less than that of an unvaccinated person Vaccinated people still get measles. But because everyone is vaccinated in the US and Europe and many other parts of the world, the chance of getting it is infinitesimal. It's math.

Anyone else getting tired what the CDC says anymore? They keep moving the goal post. Previously Fauci said it we got to 70% vaccinated we would be good, then he comes out and explain that he misled us for our own good. Now we are at the point that boosters are necessary after several months…

It's called science. Science evolves as it gets new data or things change. The 70% was based off of the initial strain which had an R0 of 2-3. Even Alpha only had an R0 of 3-4. But Delta has an R0 of 6-7, making it a lot more transmissible and therefore needing a lot higher level of population immunity - hence the newer number of 80-85%.

 

[Tom P.]

Do you even know what that number means? It means you have a 97% less chance of catching it than an unvaccinated person in similar circumstances. But if you went somewhere that had high spread of measles and a low vaccination rate, your change of catching it would be much higher, although much less than that of an unvaccinated person Vaccinated people still get measles. But because everyone is vaccinated in the US and Europe and many other parts of the world, the chance of getting it is infinitesimal. It's math.



It's called science. Science evolves as it gets new data or things change. The 70% was based off of the initial strain which had an R0 of 2-3. Even Alpha only had an R0 of 3-4. But Delta has an R0 of 6-7, making it a lot more transmissible and therefore needing a lot higher level of population immunity - hence the newer number of 80-85%.

Well, that sounds great and all except that's not what Fauci said. Fauci himself is on record as saying he's moved the number based on what he thinks people are able to accept at the time, not based on evolving science.

 

[Lilofan]

Very common base chemicals have doubled in price over the last 3 weeks. It's gonna get ugly.

Prices are going up and everyone needs to be prepared but at the same time off set by the exploding and record setting Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. As a long time investor that's music to my ears and my holdings, however I wouldn't be paying $700 per night and up and stay in a value resort in late Dec at WDW.

 

[Jrb1979]

Well, that sounds great and all except that's not what Fauci said. Fauci himself is on record as saying he's moved the number based on what he thinks people are able to accept at the time, not based on evolving science.

I think part of that is to get more people vaccinated. The majority of people don't understand a lot of the science behind most of this. They are trying to say in ways the majority will understand.

 

[Nubs70]

I think part of that is to get more people vaccinated. The majority of people don't understand a lot of the science behind most of this. They are trying to say in ways the majority will understand.

Not really, it's still a lie.

 

[Jrb1979]

Not really, it's still a lie.

They are still learning new things about the virus everyday. Look I get it. People want to see an endgame. By them moving the "goal posts" it's like you aren't getting any closer. IMO had vaccination rate hit close to 80% a lot of this wouldn't be happening.

I look at where I live and yesterday they announced as long as things stay the way they are in regards to cases and hospitalizations all restrictions will be lifted by March. Having 83% of the eligible population vaccinated has helped.

 

[DisneyCane]

Do you even know what that number means? It means you have a 97% less chance of catching it than an unvaccinated person in similar circumstances. But if you went somewhere that had high spread of measles and a low vaccination rate, your change of catching it would be much higher, although much less than that of an unvaccinated person Vaccinated people still get measles. But because everyone is vaccinated in the US and Europe and many other parts of the world, the chance of getting it is infinitesimal. It's math.



It's called science. Science evolves as it gets new data or things change. The 70% was based off of the initial strain which had an R0 of 2-3. Even Alpha only had an R0 of 3-4. But Delta has an R0 of 6-7, making it a lot more transmissible and therefore needing a lot higher level of population immunity - hence the newer number of 80-85%.

I understand what efficacy means and 97% for MMR vs. measles infection is a lot higher than the COVID vaccines against infection. When you do the math on a virus that is almost as contagious, being 7%-23% less effective has a large consequence.

 

[seascape]

Following up my earlier post, on September 20, the CDC reported 4493 breakthrough deaths. (These are deaths of those who are fully vaccinated.)

As of October 18, the CDC reported 10,857 deaths, an average increase of 1,591 per week. At this rate, there will be more than 82,000 breakthrough deaths per year.

Over the same 4 weeks, the CDC reported 43,885 deaths, meaning that three-quarters of all deaths were among the unvaccinated.

The CDC reports that 84.6% of those 65 and over are fully vaccinated. Despite this, 85% of breakthrough deaths are among the elderly. Even fully vaccinated, the elderly remain at high risk. We need to do all we can to slow the spread of COVID among the elderly. No matter what your age, you can help slow the spread by getting vaccinated.

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The breakthrough cases are why our testing program is stupid. Everyone should be tested for antibidies. That would show if you have some level of protection. Remember 5% plus of those vaccinated are not protected and can get Covid19, but they have no idea they can because they are not tested. NY continues to advertise everyone should take Covid test even aftet being vaccinated but never say you should take an antibody test. Please, take an antibody test and learn your level of protection.

 

[Jrb1979]

The breakthrough cases are why our testing program is stupid. Everyone should be tested for antibidies. That would show if you have some level of protection. Remember 5% plus of those vaccinated are not protected and can get Covid19, but they have no idea they can because they are not tested. NY continues to advertise everyone should take Covid test even aftet being vaccinated but never say you should take an antibody test. Please, take an antibody test and learn your level of protection.

Taking an antibody test once vaccinated doesn't change anything. Many elderly are going to get Covid regardless so finding out if their level of protection is high or low doesn't do anything. If anything it's the younger people that need to be vaccinated to slow the spread. Being vaccinated shows it does slow the spread

 

[BrianLo]

I understand what efficacy means and 97% for MMR vs. measles infection is a lot higher than the COVID vaccines against infection. When you do the math on a virus that is almost as contagious, being 7%-23% less effective has a large consequence.

Fortunately, Covid is significantly less infectious than measles.

 

[drizgirl]

Prices are going up and everyone needs to be prepared but at the same time off set by the exploding and record setting Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. As a long time investor that's music to my ears and my holdings, however I wouldn't be paying $700 per night and up and stay in a value resort in late Dec at WDW.

You understand that the people this inflation hurts most are the people who don't have stocks, right?

 

[drizgirl]

I think part of that is to get more people vaccinated. The majority of people don't understand a lot of the science behind most of this. They are trying to say in ways the majority will understand.

Of course it is. And the minute people feel like they are being manipulated with less than honest information, they check out and stop believing anything they are told. Pretty much like we have right now.

 

[correcaminos]

Of course it is. And the minute people feel like they are being manipulated with less than honest information, they check out and stop believing anything they are told. Pretty much like we have right now.

Yeah no. It doesn't matter to these people. They checked out over a year ago before we even had a thought of a vaccine. You (edit: generic you) might say adjusting for science makes it worse but they were maskholes then and now both maskholes and vaxholes ,

 

[seascape]

Taking an antibody test once vaccinated doesn't change anything. Many elderly are going to get Covid regardless so finding out if their level of protection is high or low doesn't do anything. If anything it's the younger people that need to be vaccinated to slow the spread. Being vaccinated shows it does slow the spread

I agree with you that protection decreases over time especially for Seniors. That is why testing is important and not just once after getting the vaccine.

 

[Timmay]

Anyone else getting tired of the excuses people keep giving for why they can't get vaccinated?

One can be fully supportive of vaccinations and still be unsupportive of what can be seen as constant inconsistencies from officials. It’s not “either/or.” Multiple truths can, in fact, be held at the same time.

 

[FanforDisney]

Do you even know what that number means? It means you have a 97% less chance of catching it than an unvaccinated person in similar circumstances. But if you went somewhere that had high spread of measles and a low vaccination rate, your change of catching it would be much higher, although much less than that of an unvaccinated person Vaccinated people still get measles. But because everyone is vaccinated in the US and Europe and many other parts of the world, the chance of getting it is infinitesimal. It's math.



It's called science. Science evolves as it gets new data or things change. The 70% was based off of the initial strain which had an R0 of 2-3. Even Alpha only had an R0 of 3-4. But Delta has an R0 of 6-7, making it a lot more transmissible and therefore needing a lot higher level of population immunity - hence the newer number of 80-85%.

That is not true about the 70% number. This is back in Dec of 2020.

"Late last week, Fauci told the New York Times that new science had changed his thinking on the herd immunity threshold -- but he also admitted that his statements were influenced in part by "his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks."
Specifically, the fraction of people who would need immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (either through vaccination or recovery from prior infection) to extinguish the spread of the virus was initially estimated to be 60% to 70%. In recent weeks, Fauci had raised the percentage: from 70% to 75%, and then to 75%, 80%, and 85%."

Opinion | Op-Ed: Why Did Fauci Move the Herd Immunity Goal Posts?

Scientists play a dangerous game when they tailor factual statements to promote policy goals

www.medpagetoday.com

From NY Times on Dec 24 2020
In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html

So when do we believe Fauci? He has given conflicting statements/directions throughout the pandemic.

 

[FanforDisney]

Yeah no. It doesn't matter to these people. They checked out over a year ago before we even had a thought of a vaccine. You might say adjusting for science makes it worse but they were maskholes then and now both maskholes and vaxholes ,

I have taken the vaccine, and booster and flu shot and wear masks, I just tired of CDC and Fauci playing politics.

 

[John park hopper]

The effectiveness of Moderna's shot fell to 76% from 86%. Another preprint by a research group in Qatar found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 53.5% effective at stopping infection from Delta, while Moderna was 85% effective.Aug 28, 2021.
Get the vaccine or not given the effectiveness is a personal choice and demonizing those who choose not too serves no purpose.

 

[correcaminos]

I have taken the vaccine, and booster and flu shot and wear masks, I just tired of CDC and Fauci playing politics.

Wasn't talking about you honestly. Sorry it read that way. You can be a bit annoyed with things and not be "one of those"

Sorry not getting political either here (against rules)

 

[correcaminos]

The effectiveness of Moderna's shot fell to 76% from 86%. Another preprint by a research group in Qatar found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 53.5% effective at stopping infection from Delta, while Moderna was 85% effective.Aug 28, 2021.
Get the vaccine or not given the effectiveness is a personal choice and demonizing those who choose not too serves no purpose.

And this mentality is exactly the issue. Not all studies point to your numbers anyway.

Getting the vaccine absolutely makes a huge difference. Those fighting are nothing more than vaxholes now. You think it's choice, I see it as being a selfish jerk now as a whole. I want my freaking life back for my kid and vaxholes are keeping us from it.