Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Here is the weekly report from the Florida DOH. The number of new deaths reported from the report last week to this report is 2,340.

View attachment 588935View attachment 588936View attachment 588937View attachment 588938

Big time slowdown in first doses. Interesting in the week after the national mandate was announced.

Looking at the county breakdown in the report there are other interesting things. Miami-Dade county now has 91% of eligible with at least one shot representing 78% of the total population. Duval County has 62% with at least one shot representing 52% of the population.

In the prior week Miami-Dade had 293.2 cases per 100k and Duval had 169.8. The statewide average was 256.3. I'm not cherry picking the only two large counties that fit this comparison. There are many examples if you look at the report.

There are obviously a lot more variables at play with respect to spread than vaccination rate. Orange County is at 73% of eligible (62% of population) which is far lower than Miami-Dade but had 218.1 cases per 100k.

Just throwing out some stats. Feel free to ignore them and pretend that what is happening isn't happening.

 

[SteveAZee]

For goodness sake. Arguing this point is just for the sake of argument. Every reasonable person including those who support more mitigation agree that wearing a mask for the brief periods of moving through a restaurant does nothing at a macro level to reduce the risk of indoor dining. Yes, there will be some outlier where somebody walking through stops and sneezes at another table and infects somebody. Exceedingly rare outliers are not justification for pointless policies.

I'm sure I can find cases of doctors and nurses early on who had COVID patients cough in their face when they didn't have PPE and didn't catch COVID. That doesn't mean that PPE should not be used by doctors and nurses while treating COVID patients.

I was simply taking your silly 'bet' example and pointing out the flaws of it, if it were to actually be tested among the general population. A pointless hypothetical that would never work in the real world really doesn't establish anything.

I've been curious to see that so many people push back on nearly everything you say on the subject and it's become clear that if you indeed shift your opinion based on information/evidence/facts/logic, I don't see it. I threw this out there because it seems like you hang your beliefs on shifting sands, and was curious how you'd respond. Thanks.

 

[dovetail65]

No it isn't "clear." A vaccine attempts to trick your immune system into thinking you have been infected. Why would the trick cause a better immune response than an actual infection of anything? It could be equal. Perhaps it could last longer due to spaced out doses but why would anybody ever expect it to be better?

Also, when Fauci responded to the question about the Israeli study, he did not dispute the level of protection or even hedge. He questioned the "durability" of the natural immunity.

I disagree and so do many studies. Natural immunity is up to 27times greater in some humans after having Covid, but it is not along lasting and not a reason for a large population not to get vaccinated. Some humans didn't have that 27times and had far less ,some lasted 6months and some lasted 3 weeks, but NEVER has any study shown it is a life long or lasting immunity or that those people didn't need to be vaccinated!


You misuse his words to get what you want from it. Humans get natural immunity from almost anything we get, but the natural immunity varies too much.This is why so many times in history every human from a pandemic didn't die.

This is one study that literally states it is clear:


More than a third of COVID-19 infections result in zero protective antibodies
Natural immunity fades faster than vaccine immunity
Natural immunity alone is less than half as effective than natural immunity plus vaccination

If we all had immunity great, fact is all humans dont !I am not placing that bet that I am one that gained immunity if I had Covid.

If Israel really thought that study meant what you think it means they would not be advocating for a 3rd shot for everyone and be the country giving the most 3rd shots! One of Israels studies actually shows the third shot is better than all.

I already posted this article you either did not read it or dismissed it, that is your prerogative/

COVID-19: Disease-induced (natural) immunity, vaccination or hybrid immunity?

If you’ve had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?

www.nebraskamed.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Yeah, I know, and I took it in Feb, but to just say "oh you fools, you could have avoided this" and then just let the hospitals be overwhelmed is ignorant.

I love the virtue signaling to those who have been accused of virtue signaling since day one.

Rich.

 

[ABQ]

I love the virtue signaling to those who have been accused of virtue signaling since day one.

Rich.

Unsure what your implications are with this statement. However, I am certain that I'm dealing with a 72 year old near and dear to me who has been hospitalized with covid for over 2 weeks and still has covid pneumonia and sadly couldn't get antibody treatments and wouldn't wish such a situation on anyone else if it can be helped. If that's virtuous, I'm not certain, the definition changes by the minute.

 

[DisneyCane]

I disagree and so do many studies.Natural immunity is up to 27times greater in some humans after having Covid, but it is not long lasting not a reason for a large population to get vaccinated. Some humans didn't have that 27times and had far less ,some lasted 6motnsh some lasted 3 weeks, but NEVER has any study shown it is a life long or lasting immunity or that hose people didn't need to be vaccinated!


You misuse his words to get what you want from it.Humans get natural immunity from almost anything we get, but the natural immunity varies too much.This is why so many times in history every human from a pandemic didnt die.

This is one study that literally states it is clear:


More than a third of COVID-19 infections result in zero protective antibodies
Natural immunity fades faster than vaccine immunity
Natural immunity alone is less than half as effective than natural immunity plus vaccination

If we all had immunity great, fact is all humans dont !I am not placing that bet that I am one that gained immunity if I had Covid.

If Israel really thought that study meant what you think it means they would not be advocating for a 3rd shot for everyone and be the country giving the most 3rd shots! One of Israels studies actually shows the third shot is better than all.

I already posted this article you either did not read it or dismissed it, that is your prerogative/

COVID-19: Disease-induced (natural) immunity, vaccination or hybrid immunity?

If you’ve had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?

www.nebraskamed.com

Go watch the video of Fauci both times. The early comment about being "willing to bet anything" that if you recover from COVID you'll be protected was clearly meant to convey that people who recover would be immune for some period of time. Then go watch his response to Sanjay Gupta about the natural immunity being 27 times greater. He did not dispute it nor did he add caveats. The only thing he said is they didn't know the durability of the natural immunity.

The studies referenced in that link are not clear. They may support those conclusions on the basis of infection but they don't delve into level of illness. Detectible antibodies in the blood do not equate to protection. A naturally infected person from March 2020 will likely have lower antibody levels than a person vaccinated two months ago. That doesn't mean they aren't just as protected from severe illness.

If it was so clear then Fauci might have mentioned this in answer to Sanjay Gupta. Regarding the 3rd shot, it could very well be a case of duration of protection. Shortly after the vaccination campaign begun it appeared the mRNA vaccines were close to 90% effective vs. infection after the second dose. That waned significantly after a few months. The results from the 3rd shot now do not predict what they will be 5 or 6 months after the third shot. Maybe it will lead to lasting high levels of protection, maybe it will do the same thing as the second shot. We'll find out.

 

[DisneyCane]

Unsure what your implications are with this statement. However, I am certain that I'm dealing with a 72 year old near and dear to me who has been hospitalized with covid for over 2 weeks and still has covid pneumonia and sadly couldn't get antibody treatments and wouldn't wish such a situation on anyone else if it can be helped. If that's virtuous, I'm not certain, the definition changes by the minute.

Was the person vaccinated? I'm just curious. I hope they recover. Hopefully they haven't gotten bad enough to be in the ICU.

 

[GoofGoof]

I can't speak for what they do at every site in FL but I know for a fact that there are criteria to qualify and they aren't supposed to give it out "like candy." I also know for a fact that at more than one location the criteria are followed.

State-run monoclonal antibody treatment site now open in Orlando

The site is being hosted at Camping World Stadium.

www.mynews13.com

From the attached:
The monoclonal antibody treatment can be recommended by health care providers, but patients do not need a prescription or referral to get the free treatment at the state-run sites.

Maybe this has changed since it was first reported. The CDC only recommends use of this treatment for specific individuals and at the request of a medical professional. Having sites which do not require a prescription or referral doesn’t seem like the best idea, especially for a life saving treatment that is in short supply.

 

[DisneyCane]

State-run monoclonal antibody treatment site now open in Orlando

The site is being hosted at Camping World Stadium.

www.mynews13.com

From the attached:
The monoclonal antibody treatment can be recommended by health care providers, but patients do not need a prescription or referral to get the free treatment at the state-run sites.

Maybe this has changed since it was first reported. The CDC only recommends use of this treatment for specific individuals and at the request of a medical professional. Having sites which do not require a prescription or referral doesn’t seem like the best idea, especially for a life saving treatment that is in short supply.

If that's what they are doing a the state run sites they shouldn't be. My wife received the guidelines from the FL Dept of Health and there were clear criteria in there. I know those criteria are used at places she works which have the treatments available.

 

[GoofGoof]

If that's what they are doing a the state run sites they shouldn't be. My wife received the guidelines from the FL Dept of Health and there were clear criteria in there. I know those criteria are used at places she works which have the treatments available.

I agree. I’m not in FL so I don’t know what’s going on, but the story I was hearing is that hospitals and medical facilities were only willing to give the treatment to those that qualified (same as everywhere else) and so the government sidestepped their oversight by setting up these state run facilities with no questions asked. I’m all for getting people whatever treatment is available that gives them the best chance and that treatment seems to work pretty well. I don’t know if there are negative side effects but there must be a reason the EUA is limited to 65+ and high risk. I still think the better long term plan is to focus on preventing infection instead of just settling for treating it but we need both.

 

[Disney Analyst]

No, Vaccinated People Are Not ‘Just as Likely’ to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People

This has become a common refrain among the cautious—and it’s wrong.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[correcaminos]

No, Vaccinated People Are Not ‘Just as Likely’ to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People

This has become a common refrain among the cautious—and it’s wrong.

www.theatlantic.com

Pay wall... did this include studies?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Pay wall... did this include studies?

"Despite concern about waning immunity, vaccines provide the best protection against infection. And if someone isn’t infected, they can’t spread the coronavirus. It’s truly that simple. Additionally, for those instances of a vaccinated person getting a breakthrough case, yes, they can be as infectious as an unvaccinated person. But they are likely contagious for a shorter period of time when compared with the unvaccinated, and they may harbor less infectious virus overall.


That’s why getting more people their shots is crucial for controlling the spread of the coronavirus: Every vaccinated person helps limit the virus’s ability to hide, replicate, and propagate.
Among the unvaccinated, the virus travels unhindered on a highway with multiple off-ramps and refueling stations. In the vaccinated, it gets lost in a maze of dead-end streets and cul-de-sacs. Every so often, it pieces together an escape route, but in most scenarios, it finds itself cut off, and its journey ends. It can go no further.

This is borne out by recent data from New York City that show that more than 96 percent of cases are among the unvaccinated. Only 0.33 percent of fully vaccinated New Yorkers have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

It’s worth acknowledging that even though the vaccines are our best protection—and still do what we need them to do very well—they’re not perfect. Vaccinated individuals can experience breakthrough infections, and when they do, they can potentially infect others. Some may also develop long COVID, although thankfully the shots dramatically lower this risk too. These reasons are exactly why, in many circumstances, mitigation measures such as masking and mandates still make sense to help limit the spread, even for the vaccinated."

 

[DisneyCane]

"Despite concern about waning immunity, vaccines provide the best protection against infection. And if someone isn’t infected, they can’t spread the coronavirus. It’s truly that simple. Additionally, for those instances of a vaccinated person getting a breakthrough case, yes, they can be as infectious as an unvaccinated person. But they are likely contagious for a shorter period of time when compared with the unvaccinated, and they may harbor less infectious virus overall.


That’s why getting more people their shots is crucial for controlling the spread of the coronavirus: Every vaccinated person helps limit the virus’s ability to hide, replicate, and propagate.
Among the unvaccinated, the virus travels unhindered on a highway with multiple off-ramps and refueling stations. In the vaccinated, it gets lost in a maze of dead-end streets and cul-de-sacs. Every so often, it pieces together an escape route, but in most scenarios, it finds itself cut off, and its journey ends. It can go no further.

This is borne out by recent data from New York City that show that more than 96 percent of cases are among the unvaccinated. Only 0.33 percent of fully vaccinated New Yorkers have been diagnosed with COVID-19.

It’s worth acknowledging that even though the vaccines are our best protection—and still do what we need them to do very well—they’re not perfect. Vaccinated individuals can experience breakthrough infections, and when they do, they can potentially infect others. Some may also develop long COVID, although thankfully the shots dramatically lower this risk too. These reasons are exactly why, in many circumstances, mitigation measures such as masking and mandates still make sense to help limit the spread, even for the vaccinated."

Fully vaccinated people are also much more likely to have asymptomatic or very mild infections if they do get infected so it is logical that a lot fewer vaccinated people are tested. If the ratio were really that drastic then vaccinated people would be contributing essentially zero to spread and places with very high vaccination rates should be seeing very little community transmission.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Fully vaccinated people are also much more likely to have asymptomatic or very mild infections if they do get infected so it is logical that a lot fewer vaccinated people are tested. If the ratio were really that drastic then vaccinated people would be contributing essentially zero to spread and places with very high vaccination rates should be seeing very little community transmission.

This has been explained, repeatedly. You are clearly just ignoring it because it is not the answer that makes things easiest for you.

 

[GoofGoof]

Fully vaccinated people are also much more likely to have asymptomatic or very mild infections if they do get infected so it is logical that a lot fewer vaccinated people are tested. If the ratio were really that drastic then vaccinated people would be contributing essentially zero to spread and places with very high vaccination rates should be seeing very little community transmission.

We should see that once we have areas with very high vaccine rates. No 70% is not “very high” and no area will reach the level we need to be at without the rest of kids being vaccinated. Before you say kids don’t matter for spread, they absolutely do. Can’t have your cake and eat it too here. If kids who have mostly mild or asymptomatic infections are not spreading covid because of that then neither are fully vaccinated people. If fully vaccinated people are spreading covid with their asymptomatic and mild infections than so are kids. So once kids are approved for the vaccine and once we reach “very high vaccination rates” then we should see little community transmission. I know it’s not the answer you want, but that’s going to take some time still. Probably into Q1 of next year. In the meantime we keep working on those who are currently eligible and unvaccinated.

 

[DisneyCane]

We should see that once we have areas with very high vaccine rates. No 70% is not “very high” and no area will reach the level we need to be at without the rest of kids being vaccinated. Before you say kids don’t matter for spread, they absolutely do. Can’t have your cake and eat it too here. If kids who have mostly mild or asymptomatic infections are not spreading covid because of that then neither are fully vaccinated people. If fully vaccinated people are spreading covid with their asymptomatic and mild infections than so are kids. So once kids are approved for the vaccine and once we reach “very high vaccination rates” then we should see little community transmission. I know it’s not the answer you want, but that’s going to take some time still. Probably into Q1 of next year. In the meantime we keep working on those who are currently eligible and unvaccinated.

We shall see. I hope you are right. I'm skeptical when places with 70%+ of the population vaccinated also have the highest level of cases they've ever had. You may not think so but I want you to be right. Also, I don't think that anywhere that doesn't require 5-11 to be vaccinated for school will not see much higher than 50% be vaccinated.

 

[JoeCamel]

Fully vaccinated people are also much more likely to have asymptomatic or very mild infections if they do get infected so it is logical that a lot fewer vaccinated people are tested. If the ratio were really that drastic then vaccinated people would be contributing essentially zero to spread and places with very high vaccination rates should be seeing very little community transmission.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Fully vaccinated people are also much more likely to have asymptomatic or very mild infections if they do get infected so it is logical that a lot fewer vaccinated people are tested. If the ratio were really that drastic then vaccinated people would be contributing essentially zero to spread and places with very high vaccination rates should be seeing very little community transmission.

I guess it depends on if you are worried about infections or deaths.

Personally I dont care how many people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, it’s the hospitalizations and deaths I care about. If 100% of the population were vaccinated and 100% of the population was also “sick” with asymptomatic or very mild cases I’d consider that a massive win and an end to the pandemic.

Edited to add that if everyone were vaccinated, even with breakthrough cases and deaths, Florida would have about 700 hospitalizations this week instead of 7000 and they’d have about 33 deaths instead of 330. Those are normal flu year numbers, I think we’d all rejoice to experience a boring old flu season right now.

 

[lazyboy97o]

We shall see. I hope you are right. I'm skeptical when places with 70%+ of the population vaccinated also have the highest level of cases they've ever had. You may not think so but I want you to be right. Also, I don't think that anywhere that doesn't require 5-11 to be vaccinated for school will not see much higher than 50% be vaccinated.

All you have to do is the math to realize that 30% of the population is plenty of people to allow for huge outbreaks.