Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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DCBaker

Premium Member
Dr. Pino says there have been 19 new additional deaths to report since the last update on Monday. The age range for these 19 people are 28-96 - all occurred in August.

5 of the 19 were fully vaccinated. The ages of those 5 were over 70 and had underlying conditions.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
sullyinMT said:
Were you at Trampled by Turtles and Caamp, by chance? If so, nice - and a killer show! Kettlehouse is a great place for a show - and dang good beer.

Also, as our Canadian friends like to point out, holding on to mitigations but illustrating when they’ll be scaled back actually works to speed up the progress of vaccination.
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Guns n' Roses at Washington-Grizzly Stadium.

On the vaccination incentive, before the power to have local mandates was removed, Mayor Demmings tried that in Orange County, FL. The needle wasn't moving very far, unfortunately. It seems like Canadians are more likely to follow sound medical advice regardless of incentives.
 
James J

James J

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
MisterPenguin said:
What's happening in one health system doesn't necessarily represent the whole state.

Tho, it does look like a plateau over the past few days.

Also, remember, that a falling curve can stop falling and plateau or even start increasing again.

View attachment 582627
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Just as the UK is doing now:

1630010839614.png
 
James J

James J

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
dreday3 said:
Are hospitalizations going up again too?

I ask this because eventually, hopefully, one day we will be at a point where there may be a lot of positive cases, but most won't result in hospitalizations due to people being vaccinated.

That's when we know we are finally coming out of this.
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They are creeping up yes, as are deaths. Here's the full view:

1630011323708.png
 
Vegas Disney Fan

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
dreday3 said:
Are hospitalizations going up again too?

I ask this because eventually, hopefully, one day we will be at a point where there may be a lot of positive cases, but most won't result in hospitalizations due to people being vaccinated.

That's when we know we are finally coming out of this.
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I think I’m officially in Covid fatigue mode… I just don’t care about cases anymore.

I don’t think Covid is ever going away so all I really care about is hospitalizations and deaths, as more and more people get vaccinated (or survive an infection and gain some natural immunity) those numbers should start going down and we’ll know we’re finally reaching herd immunity.

Once it’s “only” killing 25,000-75,000 a year (in the US) it’ll be considered beat and just another virus we live with. (Which is pretty sad but reality).
 
sullyinMT

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
dreday3 said:
Are hospitalizations going up again too?

I ask this because eventually, hopefully, one day we will be at a point where there may be a lot of positive cases, but most won't result in hospitalizations due to people being vaccinated.

That's when we know we are finally coming out of this.
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That's (kind of) where Iceland is now. A couple nights ago, an MSN article was posted about Iceland and it showed a 2% hospitalization rate even with cases growing exponentially again. Exponential from very low is relative, but it shows that hospitalization can indeed be kept in check. They're at roughly 72% fully vaccinated, IIRC. Due to the low number of beds available in Iceland, their current wave is still a big deal. If we could get cases nationally to 5/100k (1700/day), a 2% hospitalization rate would be 33 new admissions per day. At that rate, medical staffs could adequately care for and properly discharge all but the really ill and susceptible. Deaths would fall to near nothing and we could close and lock this thread for good. Shoot, I think a lot people would be relatively thrilled with up to 10x that number at this point (17k cases and 330 new admissions per day). So long as it were sustained and advances in COVID care continued to be discovered.
 
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mmascari

Well-Known Member
DCBaker said:
"Florida on Thursday reported 21,765 more COVID-19 cases and 901 deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

All but one of the newly reported deaths occurred after July 24, with 78% of those people dying in the past two weeks, according to Herald calculations of data published by the CDC. The majority of deaths happened during Florida’s latest surge in COVID-19 cases, fueled by the delta variant.

It is the largest single-day increase to the death total in the state’s COVID pandemic history.

The jump in the number of reported cases and deaths is due to the newest way deaths and cases are counted. The CDC implemented the change earlier this month, causing occasional one-day aberrations like the 901 additional deaths on Thursday and 726 more deaths reported Monday."

"There were 16,833 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida on Thursday, according to data reported to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services from 256 Florida hospitals. That is 331 fewer patients than Wednesday’s COVID patient population.

COVID-19 patients also accounted for 28.76% of all hospital patients.

Of the hospitalized in Florida, 3,688 people were in intensive care unit beds, an increase of 54. That represents 55.28% of the state’s ICU hospital beds from 256 hospitals reporting data."

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For all those curve watchers out there.

After the CDC updated it's numbers today to include 8/25, I downloaded the daily case and death data sets. I did this after the 8/22, 8/23, and 8/24 updates too.

Comparing the data set with 8/25 and the set through 8/22 we can see that:
  • The daily case count for almost every date from 1/29/2021 through 8/22 is different between the two sets.
  • The 7 day moving average and 7 day case rate both updated for all those dates in line with the new case counts.
  • There's still lots of changes to dates prior to 1/29 just not "almost all".
  • The oldest date with new case numbers in the 8/25 data set is 6/16/2020, a change of 1 new case from over a year ago.
  • The Deaths data set is less volatile. There were a bunch of March 2020 changes.
  • Excluding those, there were 5 dates in July 2021 before 7/25/2021 that changed.
  • Every date 7/26/2021 to current changed.
This doesn't mean looking at the curve changes is bad. But, if you looked at it yesterday and today, the entire shape is going to be different all the way back to February 2021. Some may be subtle shifts, some may not change the shape just shift it as a whole, but some could change the shape.

It's only as accurate as it looks right now. Comparing today to 3 days ago means reevaluating what 3 days ago really was, not what we saw and remember 3 days ago.

It also means they're able to hide all kinds of changes in the data someplace in the past. Since how many people really look back more than a day or two. An extra case here, a dozen there, a hundred stuffed in one a day for the last hundred days. They all just kind of disappear, unless you're only tracking the cumulative number.

FL Reported 8/25 - 21,765 From DCBaker above.
CDC 8/25 - 21,183
Left over 582 cases spread out through the last year. Do that every week and we're talking some real missing numbers.
 
James J

James J

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
dreday3 said:
Well that sucks.

Is it possible it's a different part of the UK this time having a wave?
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It seems that it's most of the country, unfortunately. Case are continuing to rise in all regions of England except London and Yorkshire & the Humber. London is actually now the place with the lowest rates, which is good going as it had the highest in earlier waves. I live in the South West which is now the worst area in the country, so yay us. Other UK countries are going through a similar rise.

The worry is that with more and more festivals set to take place and schools due to return in the next week or two, we're going to see a further significant surge.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
dreday3 said:
Except if people's symptoms are mild enough that they aren't getting tested...vaccine is working and that's good news.

Maybe? :D
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My coworker was positive two weeks ago. Confirmed on PCR test. Unclear if her husband also got tested, but both him and her two sons all had symptoms, sons were never tested but obviously had it.
 
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dreday3

Well-Known Member
disneygeek90 said:
My coworker was positive two weeks ago. Confirmed on PCR test. Unclear if her husband also got tested, but both him and her two sons all had symptoms, sons were never tested but obviously had it.
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Hopefully they were vaccinated and had mild cases! If the kids weren't eligible yet, I sure it hope it happens soon...
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
dreday3 said:
Hopefully they were vaccinated and had mild cases! If the kids weren't eligible yet, I sure it hope it happens soon...
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They were not! Much to my dismay because I had several discussions with that coworker for months. Oh well.. I tried. She only started feeling a little better yesterday.
 
Vegas Disney Fan

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
AEfx said:
Especially when you realize that the actual number is obviously higher - because that's out of the people that actually go get tested.
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Wouldn’t it be the opposite?

The 20% positivity rate would be 20% of people who felt sick or showed enough symptoms to get tested. Which is a small fraction of the total population.

Among the majority not getting tested, because they show no symptoms, there’s undoubtedly some positive case but they’d be at a much lower rate than of those showing symptoms, perhaps a couple percent, factor them in and the rate should go way down.

I’m not arguing the rate isn’t horrible, just arguing the logic that it’s higher rather than lower.
 
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