Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

I was very recently in Missoula and I can confirm that there is essentially no mitigation of any kind. The problem with mitigating until enough people are vaccinated is that it doesn't seem like there are that many people still getting vaccinated, at least not at a rate that the end date will be measured in months. The only significant increase will come from whoever decides to vaccinate their 5-11 year old children once that is an option.

People talk about FL like nobody here does anything. Compared to the areas I was in in MT, FL is in lockdown. Eating and shopping in Missoula, maybe 15% of people wore masks and this is a place that had a mask mandate until late May. I attended an outdoor concert and I could probably count the total number of attendees wearing masks on my hands and feet out of more than 15,000 people.

This was all fine with me as psychologically I feel less safe when people around me are masking and I felt this way before I was vaccinated. I know that it isn't the case but that's how I feel. The kind of anxiety that some people feel when others aren't masked, I feel when they are.

Were you at Trampled by Turtles and Caamp, by chance? If so, nice - and a killer show! Kettlehouse is a great place for a show - and dang good beer.

Also, as our Canadian friends like to point out, holding on to mitigations but illustrating when they’ll be scaled back actually works to speed up the progress of vaccination.

 

[SteveAZee]

I wanted to get to a desktop and illustrate a few points in just my state of MT. Since nobody lives here, but those that do live in just a few pockets. I still laugh when people refer to "the big city," when it's barely a Cincinnati suburb where I grew up. I have recently visited or live in each of these areas for youth fencing and swim tournaments, so can speak to local attitudes. Hospitalizations per county are pointless, as we do so much transferring and intake of underserved, ultra-rural areas.

Gallatin County (Bozeman, MT State Univ., gateway to Yellowstone travel): 34.4 people/mi^2. 48% total fully vaccinated, 55% 12+, 57% 18+. About the best you can ask a rural state in terms of non-vaccine mitigation. 24 cases/100k, 8.4% positivity.

Yellowstone County (Billings, big shopping hub for Wyoming and ND folks to avoid sales tax): 49.1 people/mi^2. 41%, 49%, 52%. People masking roughly matches those vaccine numbers and businesses couldn't care less. 38.5/100k, 10% positivity.

Missoula County (Univ of MT, easiest airport to Glacier, serves a large # of native counties for healthcare needs): 42.1/mi^2. 55%, 63%, 64%. 40.4/100k, 17% positivity. People let their guard down, mitigation used to be awesome here. The youngest ages groups have the highest spread, so it appears schools (K-college) are driving the recent outbreak there.

Looking at these rates across the three "big cities," it's not an either/or. It really is both. If it were just vaccines, Missoula would be wiping the other two across the floor. Bozeman has hit a better middle ground, for now. Either via businesses or government, mitigations need to be enforced until enough people are vaccinated. At a minimum, until parents can choose whether or not to vaccinate their children. Because <5 may take a long while yet, let's meet in the middle and say 5-11 needs EUA for a few months' time before we really let our collective apathy run wild. At least with everyone over 5 eligible that would get us to 93% of all Americans that could have a shot, and nearly 100% of those at risk for the worst of COVID.

I'm in Oregon and most of the cases and deaths are from the more rural counties. Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties, those that surround Portland, are doing well, certainly compared to the more rural counties. Just FYI.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Top states for hospitalizations per capita. The average for the U.S. is 29 per 100K.

View attachment 582628

The top states for deaths per capita. The U.S. average is .35 deaths per 100k...

View attachment 582629

Surprising, said no one.

 

[Club34]

"Suppression is the goal for viruses that go dormant and the immune system can never completely clear, like HIV and the herpes virurses. COVID-19 is not one of these viruses. The goal of a COVID treatment would be to block some portion of its replication cycle, giving the cells of the immune system a better chance to erradicate the viral particles before any severe damage occurs. More like the goal of antibiotic treatment against bacteria or tamiflu with influenza.

Thank you for the continued sharing of information.

 

[Heppenheimer]

More data about Florida being “the worst”:

Despite some of the tone, I really want Florida to do better, for many reasons. I'd much rather do employer-reimbursed CME at the Grand Floridian, than online in my home office (while my dogs and toddler desperately try to get my attention). Or in some non-COVID infested, but completely blah location like the Chicago downtown Sheraton (nothing against Chicago or Sheraton in particular, but in general, I'm not a fan of most US cities). I'm just baffled that at least some of the Florida political leadership isn't doing everything in their power to slow this wave down, and even appear to be doing the exact opposite in some cases.

 

[Virtual Toad]

The point of quoting past presidents is to show how throughout our nation’s history we have risen to conquer challenges, enemies and obstacles. Nothing is perfect, but shrugging our shoulders and doing nothing is far worse:

“The U.S. is projected to see nearly 100,000 more COVID-19 deaths between now and Dec. 1, according to the nation’s most closely watched forecasting model. But health experts say that toll could be cut in half if nearly everyone wore a mask in public spaces.

In other words, what the coronavirus has in store this fall depends on human behavior.

“Behavior is really going to determine if, when and how sustainably the current wave subsides,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. “We cannot stop delta in its tracks, but we can change our behavior overnight.””

100,000 more COVID-19 deaths expected unless U.S. changes its ways

Deaths are running at over 1,100 a day on average, turning the clock back to mid-March.

www.tampabay.com

 

[Lilofan]

Were you at Trampled by Turtles and Caamp, by chance? If so, nice - and a killer show! Kettlehouse is a great place for a show - and dang good beer.

Also, as our Canadian friends like to point out, holding on to mitigations but illustrating when they’ll be scaled back actually works to speed up the progress of vaccination.

Montana seems like an interesting place but some exotic cars owners that own Lamborghinis and Ferraris like Montana for a reason. For example some register their cars as of a few years ago with Montana license plates without even visiting MT for tax purposes.

 

[Kman]

I will take that and the public health care that comes with it minus the Canadian winters.

they're not too bad depending on where you live...there are definitely some northern States that have worse winters than where we live in Southern Ontario

The cloud and "gloom" are the worst. The snow is not a huge issue

 

[Lilofan]

they're not too bad depending on where you live...there are definitely some northern States that have worse winters than where we live in Southern Ontario

The cloud and "gloom" are the worst. The snow is not a huge issue

The only snow I like seeing is when watching the Winter Olympics on TV or back in the day when the snow fell from the rooftops on the Streets of America at DHS during the Osborne Family from Arkansas 5 million lights spectacular.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Montana seems like an interesting place but some exotic cars owners that own Lamborghinis and Ferraris like Montana for a reason. For example some register their cars with Montana license plates without even visiting MT for tax purposes.

Higher speed limits, maybe? More open roads that allow you to actually experience the capabilities of the car?

Even in Germany, where portions of the Autobahn network have no speed limits, you really can't take advantage of a high performance car unless traffic is relatively light. I found that the only roads where I could really drive a whole lot faster for long stretches of road than in the US tended to be in some of the rural areas of eastern Bavaria, or the sparsely populated regions of the northeast. In the densely populated west, good luck even maintaining 120 km/hr.

 

[Heppenheimer]

The only snow I like seeing is when watching the Winter Olympics on TV or back in the day when the snow fell from the rooftops on the Streets of America at DHS during the Osborne Family from Arkansas 5 million lights spectacular.

You would hate Vermont...

 

[Kman]

I do wonder if our delayed schedule for second doses, which results in a stronger antibody response, and the higher uptake, is really showing the benefit. We may be one of the countries to watch.

I just listened to a podcast discussing that yesterday...could be interesting. I was so frustrated early on that I had to wait 12 weeks (turned out to be 8) but maybe it was a good thing in hindsight!

 

[Kman]

The only snow I like seeing is when watching the Winter Olympics on TV or back in the day when the snow fell from the rooftops on the Streets of America at DHS during the Osborne Family from Arkansas 5 million lights spectacular.

lol...then you better stay south! I like winter (within reason) and actually wished I lived in a snow belt. I find our winters somewhat depressing here. I love it when we get a big storm which is not even annually in recent history. That being said, by early March I'm done with it!

 

[Heppenheimer]

they're not too bad depending on where you live...there are definitely some northern States that have worse winters than where we live in Southern Ontario

The cloud and "gloom" are the worst. The snow is not a huge issue

I sort of lived unofficially in southern Ontario for about a year. Except for some areas directly susceptible to lake effect weather, I was surprised how snowy it wasn't. The colors brown and beige predominated far more than white.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I just listened to a podcast discussing that yesterday...could be interesting. I was so frustrated early on that I had to wait 12 weeks (turned out to be 8) but maybe it was a good thing in hindsight!

It's always frustrating to feel like you are waiting while others are not, but I do think it was the right move.

Not only to ensure more people got first doses while the variants weren't as bad, but now it means a lot of us have a much stronger second dose response during a much worse variant called Delta.

Dr. Bonnie Henry did mention several times that based on other vaccines with two-dose intervals, plenty of data supports a history of a stronger response from a longer interval.

We have to remember that the short interval is a result of these companies needing to move the trials faster, and they chose the shortest but safest interval they could

 

[sullyinMT]

Higher speed limits, maybe? More open roads that allow you to actually experience the capabilities of the car?

Even in Germany, where portions of the Autobahn network have no speed limits, you really can't take advantage of a high performance car unless traffic is relatively light. I found that the only roads where I could really drive a whole lot faster for long stretches of road than in the US tended to be in some of the rural areas of eastern Bavaria, or the sparsely populated regions of the northeast. In the densely populated west, good luck even maintaining 120 km/hr.

Not that much higher (80 on interstates). There are a few stretches where I can cruise at 100 when not towing, but I’ve seen more than one out of state Vette and exotic get surprised by I-90’s mountain passes .

 

[Club34]

I don't understand what people mean when they say "what is the plan" regarding vaccinations.

The plan is get everyone vaccinated! Yes, you can still get Covid, but vast majority will have mild symptoms and WON'T BE HOSPITALIZED. That's the end-game. Punch it down to a mild disease that we can actually live with.

I would assume by people, you are referring to me as I don't recall reading it here from anyone else. It is ok to tag me and engage in a discussion. As a side note, this board has a weirder vibe (not in a good way) than the now-extinct political board which I was a "regular". I digress.

Then let me clarify by saying it's what is the plan with the pandemic. Vaccines are a part of it to be clear. And thank you for sharing your vision or your goal which appears to be 'we will continue with this forever in some fashion'. That's not a knock per se. I guess I would ask was this your goal/vision from day 1? If it wasn't, what was your original vision? If it did change, when and why did it change?

My goal would be closer to polio, where your grandkids are someday going to ask "what's polio?"

I would also add that when I say what is the goal, it is more out to the ether or to our so-called leaders which do not really talk about goals except for vaccination rates and even that has changed over the course of the pandemic. Maybe it's me, but they sometimes seem like they don't even know what they are doing. Others may feel differently.

Again, I am not anti-vax. I was a reluctant earlier adopter and was fully inoculated by the first week of February (I think) 2021. But we are more or less in a single prong attack it would appear (although there are widening opportunities of antibody treatments or infusions? and we are now even doing them regularly in my hospital which I suppose is a good thing). One does not need to be a scientist to reasonably consider that a single prong approach may not get us beyond the level of your goal later agreed upon by our resident physician. Hence why I shared the articles/data from the other countries.

Asking the question wasn't me pointing a finger to say stop taking the vaccine because it doesn't work (although I am certain there are swaths of people who take that position or approach). But that appears to be other people's problem or assumption and that is not my problem. Although folks here (and IRL) seem hellbent on making it my problem or the problem. It's projection.

No, this was just questioning the goal. The goal does not appear to be about eradication. This may be (at best perhaps) about containment. Now was this planned or just how the cookie crumbled? Could this have been reasonably predicted? Perhaps we were supposed to assume it was a fluid goal of getting the R 0 (am I formatting that right?) down and then the cookie crumbles to either containment or eradication. I don't know. I'm the dumbest person here. But I am up for the discussion. Are we allowed to question authority anymore? The vibe these days feels like 'no'.

 

[Club34]

David Axe of the Daily Beast is reporting the covid surge in Iceland is due mainly to the unvaccinated ( 16 years old and younger ).

I don't know if this is the article you were referencing but there is a lot of stuff in here. I enjoyed the article (I mean as much as you can enjoy an article about a pandemic). I don't, in a fact check sense, know if it is correct but taken at face value there is a lot of interesting angles and considerations to be had here. Recommended to all... kick it around and see what you think.

Delta COVID Surge in Iceland Is Very Bad News for the U.S.

A surge of COVID cases in one of the world’s best-protected countries shows that initial herd immunity predictions may have been way too optimistic.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Club34]

I’m going to nit pick a bit, so I apologize in advance.

Although I understand the point you are making, the comparisons don’t really work, especially the first two. Those first two succeeded because of what I believe are two or even three very important things.

WWII - The US had a very clear and definable goal…the unconditional surrender of the axis powers. Boom, pretty much clear as day. And even though FDR said “however long it takes” the day after the attack on Pearl Harbor, within weeks there was a clear and definable timeline to the goal. Germany first, with invasions of Africa in 1942 and then Europe in late 1943 to mid 1944…all while playing the defensive in the Pacific until the US industrial might could come on line, then island hop to Japan sometime in 1945. All definable goals with timelines. In addition, the enemy had names, faces and agendas. Humans have an easier time coming together and fighting something like that.

The Moon - Kennedy set the mark by telling congress “First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth.” Goal and timeline, in one simple sentence. He also tied the moon goal to the evil and tyranny of the USSR. Again, anyone can see the moon on a lot of nights. It’s right there. And the threat of the USSR had been looming for years

9/11 - No definable goal, and certainly no definable timeline. No desire to be political, but one only need look at the news today.

I’m not saying your overall sentiment is wrong, and I’m certainly not saying we should be doing nothing…I’ve made several points about that, but it’s important to understand human nature in tackling something with no definable goal/timeline and without a face or known agenda. It’s just different. It doesn’t mean we stop trying, but the comparisons aren’t necessarily accurate.

Yet I am chastised (as I'm sure others are too) for asking what is the plan as if I am some nefarious alt-media subversive.

This attitude is why we are failing just as much as any limitations of or miscalculations by actual science. And for the record that is not a knock on science. It's the acceptance that we are learning as we go. We will get stuff right and we will get stuff wrong.

 

[correcaminos]

The Mayo clinic has a 14-day forecast for their model. My state (Ohio) shows between a 47% and a 383% increase and the country between a 19% and 54%. Depressing.

OH:
View attachment 582632

US:
View attachment 582633

other projections I've seen aren't as bad

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org