Not a "scholar," but a working (well, mostly retired) Supreme Court practitioner. Who also likes Disney.
They are compatible.
It's actually a very well-written decision, and interesting because it goes into complicated areas like the First Amendment and the dormant commerce clause. And it fits right into the trend both on the Supreme Court and in the lower courts (which I've discussed in other threads) that the deference shown to government officials' decisions early in the pandemic (when the urgency was great, information lacking, and remedies non-existent) has subsided, so the government has to prove its case using specific evidence rather than just speculating about the public interest.
See, e.g.,
Roman Catholic Diocese of Brooklyn v. Cuomo, 141 S. Ct. 63, 592 US __, (2020) (striking lockdown rules where the result was readily-apparent violations of the First Amendment because of a lack of narrow tailoring of the rules).
I may write more later if needed, but for right now, the
NCL opinion, without citing it, uses the proper standard of review under
Jacobson and the First Amendment cases (
see, e.g.,
Americans for Prosperity Fndtn/Thomas More Legal Center v. Bonta, July 1, 2021), and under that standard finds:
1)
Compelling governmental interest: Compelled speech is judged under strict scrutiny except in very limited circumstances (where exacting scrutiny is required). Judge Williams pointed out that the statute was directed at the CONTENT of the compelled speech ("Here's my documentation that I've been vaccinated"). That's pretty much saying the government loses. Florida claimed two governmental interests: protecting medical privacy and protecting the unvaccinated from discrimination. It did not provide any evidence demonstrating its rule protected either one, just like in
AFPF/TMLC; and,
2)
Narrowly-tailored remedy: Florida blocked the cruise lines from requiring documentation of vaccination but allowed oral statements to the same effect, so they lost the case right there. Judge Williams went on with the narrow tailoring review, but the case was already done. Could they revise the Executive Order and legislative ratification? Sure, but then they'd have to prove their new rule met the same strict scrutiny standard. Can they? Not likely.
As to whether the Supreme Court will uphold this case? Likely won't even take it up, because there's no conflict among the circuits. Now that we're further into the pandemic, we're back to the traditional Supreme Court focus on uniformity of law and jurisprudence across the country, and every court is upholding vaccination mandates under
Jacobson. But assuming they thought it was an important enough vehicle to instruct the lower courts yet again about the legal doctrines that control these reviews, if they reversed this one it would confuse the lower courts about
Diocese of Brooklyn and other pandemic precedent. So, nothing to do with conservative/libertarian/liberal Court (we don't have a 6-3 Court right now, we have a 3-3-3 Court), just the traditional way the Court does business.