Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

For sure the worst states have much higher spread right now. However, things are fluid so the current really bad states may enter a decline as the currently good states ramp up. I bet nobody ever thought that South Dakota would have the lowest level of community spread at any time during the pandemic! If it stays that way I think we can say that natural immunity does work against Delta.

Yeah, who knows what happens. We will have to see how cases move elsewhere. It’s possible every state has similar case ramp up, but it’s not a guarantee. When the alpha wave came through in Mar/Apr cases spiked in Michigan and most of the Northeast but not in places like Texas and the middle of the country that seem to be spiking with this wave. So while it’s possible every other state ramps up and it’s just a timing difference it’s also possible they don’t ramp up as much. We are also being told that the vaccines still work very well at stopping symptomatic spread so the more people vaccinated the lower the peak in cases. If every state ramps up similar to “the big 4“ today then that’s very bad news for the vaccines and probably means the efficacy is failing faster than we thought

 

[ctrlaltdel]

Florida right now on pace to have their worst wave of the whole pandemic.

 

[James J]

The latest vaccine numbers are looking good on this side of the pond:

Now that we're getting into the under 30's being able to get their second doses, we should hopefully get those first and second dose percentages a lot closer together in the coming weeks! I'll be getting my second this Wednesday which I am incredibly glad about.

 

[LittleBuford]

Florida right now on pace to have their worst wave of the whole pandemic.

I can't wrap my head around the fact that theme parks are operating against this background. The dissonance is bewildering.

 

[Disney Experience]

From the study: ( note the 83.7 is for the subjects four months+)

So it is possible ti extrapolate at 6 months Pfizer VE ( efficacy) may be 78% against original variant for symptomatic. ( Though for a confidence index of 95% the VE at four months had a wide range )

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I can't wrap my head around the fact that theme parks are operating against this background. The dissonance is bewildering.

Agreed. Cue the “you must hate cm’s and want them to get laid off!”

 

[Touchdown]

I can't wrap my head around the fact that theme parks are operating against this background. The dissonance is bewildering.

Not only that, it makes no sense given Florida’s reported vaccinated/non vaccinated ratio of hospital admissions and cases vs shots in arms. It’s doing worse then AL, MO, LA, and the rest of the Southeast despite similar climates. There has to be incorrect data, it makes no congnitive sense.

I think a lot of snowbirds who claim other states as their main residence, but lied and said it was FL when they got vaxxed, and travelers from other countries falsely propped up Florida’s vaccine rate. It’s got to be 10-20% lower then what’s reported. Again, it doesn’t make sense.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

I can't wrap my head around the fact that theme parks are operating against this background. The dissonance is bewildering.

The most insane part to me is that this is mostly unvaccinated folks (which is still a large portion of the population, even in FL) especially the ones going to hospitals with serious illness.This is gonna rip through the rest of the country the same way it is in Florida and if you are unvaccinated and not taking major precautions you will very likely get it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Interesting discussion on who the unvaccinated are and what may help get them to go in.

Who Are the Unvaccinated in America? There's No One Answer.

As coronavirus cases rise across the United States, the fight against the pandemic is focused on an estimated 93 million people who are eligible for shots but have chosen not to get them. These are the Americans who are most vulnerable to serious illness from the highly contagious delta variant...

www.yahoo.com

 

[ctrlaltdel]

Not only that, it makes no sense given Florida’s reported vaccinated/non vaccinated ratio of hospital admissions and cases vs shots in arms. It’s doing worse then AL, MO, LA, and the rest of the Southeast despite similar climates. There has to be incorrect data, it makes no congnitive sense.

I think a lot of snowbirds who claim other states as their main residence, but lied and said it was FL when they got vaxxed, and travelers from other countries falsely propped up Florida’s vaccine rate. It’s got to be 10-20% lower then what’s reported. Again, it doesn’t make sense.

Could be. I work with my County’s Health Department frequently (in WNY with a LOT of FL snowbirds) and they believe we have likely 5-10% more of the population than is stated in the data vaccinated due to this, especially due for o the timing when older folks could get the shot (still down in FL for the winter/early spring).

 

[ctrlaltdel]

Interesting discussion on who the unvaccinated are and what may help get them to go in.

Who Are the Unvaccinated in America? There's No One Answer.

As coronavirus cases rise across the United States, the fight against the pandemic is focused on an estimated 93 million people who are eligible for shots but have chosen not to get them. These are the Americans who are most vulnerable to serious illness from the highly contagious delta variant...

www.yahoo.com

Luckily we are seeing vaccinations increase again due to the delta wave, especially in hard hit areas. I think it gave a push to many on the fence/intially skeptical. Still nowhere near our highs in daily rates and it won’t help much with this wave, but still the increase in vaccinations will likely save 1000s of lives later on.

 

[mellyf]

The Oasis of Yellow in the northeast keeps shrinking. Outside of extremely rural counties, I'd expect just about the entire country to be at least at "orange" level within a week.

View attachment 576098

I'm many pages behind currently, but I've been keeping tabs on Illinois where I live, and the yellow is definitely shrinking. Just days ago, the red was almost entirely in the southern and lower central portions of Illinois, but the county where I work just moved to substantial risk a couple of days ago, joining most of the surrounding counties that were already there.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Not only that, it makes no sense given Florida’s reported vaccinated/non vaccinated ratio of hospital admissions and cases vs shots in arms. It’s doing worse then AL, MO, LA, and the rest of the Southeast despite similar climates. There has to be incorrect data, it makes no congnitive sense.

I think a lot of snowbirds who claim other states as their main residence, but lied and said it was FL when they got vaxxed, and travelers from other countries falsely propped up Florida’s vaccine rate. It’s got to be 10-20% lower then what’s reported. Again, it doesn’t make sense.

Look at MA...overall, as a state, our vaccination rate is pretty good. But the county I live in only has 55% of the total population fully vaxxed.

ETA: My county is not rural by any stretch of the imagination. It ranges from small cities, to mostly suburbs with some areas of farms and more spread out populations...but it's definitely primarily suburbs.

 

[GoofGoof]

I can't wrap my head around the fact that theme parks are operating against this background. The dissonance is bewildering.

One thing Disney has going for it is the majority of people visiting WDW are not from FL. Some of the states that draw large number of guests to WDW are amongst the most vaccinated and also the lowest case numbers right now. WDW also tends to skew towards the wealthier demographic that tends to be more vaccinated as well. Adding to that WDW hasn’t started selling annual passes again so there are probably less locals there then at some points in the past (people can still renew APs but cannot buy new ones). With the return to indoor masking at WDW exclusively many of the locals (or out of state visitors) who are opposed to masks and also more likely to be unvaccinated will choose to go to Universal or Sea World instead to avoid masks. On the flip side WDW CMs are still majority local except for the college program kids who had to be vaccinated to stay in dorms with roommates. Based on all of this WDW May not be the biggest problem out there. A bar or club in a FL beach town that is packed with locals mostly under 30 (which is the least vaccinated demographic) is far more of a problem than WDW right now. Everything is relative to what you compare it to.

 

[LittleBuford]

One thing Disney has going for it is the majority of people visiting WDW are not from FL.

That makes things even worse in my view. Travelling to and from a contagion hotspot where one can't avoid mixing with crowds of strangers is, to my mind, profoundly unwise.

 

[GoofGoof]

Luckily we are seeing vaccinations increase again due to the delta wave, especially in hard hit areas. I think it gave a push to many on the fence/intially skeptical. Still nowhere near our highs in daily rates and it won’t help much with this wave, but still the increase in vaccinations will likely save 1000s of lives later on.

I am firmly in favor of a 3 prong plan to get vaccinations way up.

1. Full FDA approval (likely coming by mid-August)
2. A final stimulus check of at least $1,000 per person tied directly to vaccination
3. A strong recommendation from the CDC and Federal government for corporations to require vaccinations for employees to return to physical work (with the usual health and religious exemptions)

On the 3rd one I’m not opposed to allowing an option to let employees be tested frequently (weekly or several times a week) at the employee‘s expense as opposed to proof of vaccination. I think if we had these 3 things happen in conjunction with the EUA for kids under 12 we could get to 80%+ of the total population fully vaccinated by the end of the year. No clue if that would be enough but that’s what we have to shoot for at this point.

 

[GoofGoof]

That makes things even worse in my view. Travelling to and from a contagion hotspot where one can't avoid mixing with crowds of strangers is, to my mind, profoundly unwise.

Mixing with crowds applies to any vacation spot though. So far the CDC hasn’t recommended people stop traveling. That could change but hasn’t yet. My point is that just because WDW is located in a hotspot doesn’t mean everyone there is contagious. Traveling to Florida and going to a club filled mostly with locals is a lot more problematic than going to a theme park with a National daw.

 

[mellyf]

Speaking of movies. We just got back from watching Jungle Cruise at our Alamo Drafthouse. We just saw Black Widow two weeks ago. For BW, there was no signs of masks anywhere, and every seat was being sold. When we bought our tickets for this, they were blocking out 2 seats on both sides of your party. This showing was designated "kid-friendly" when we bought the tickets and masks were required. 95% of people entered the theater with their masks on despite no signage or employee standing guard (we were the first two to arrive, so I was watching). And in our row, at least, people put them back on when they finished eating.

And Jungle Cruise was a solid B movie. It is exactly what you would expect it to be, and a respectful homage to the ride, and all of Adventureland. Relied a little too much of previous examples of this type of movie, so there would have been room for some new twists.

We were going to go see BW today, but the theater that we were going to go to is in a "substantial transmission" county, and I told my husband I just wasn't sure if I wanted to sit for 2 hours in a theater, even with our masks on (and we're both vaccinated). I don't know...it probably would have been fine. Right?

 

[Disney Analyst]

I can't wrap my head around the fact that theme parks are operating against this background. The dissonance is bewildering.

Have you seen this…

Lollapalooza continues Friday amid rising COVID cases in Chicago

Lolla 2021 continues Friday in Grant Park with COVID-19 protocols in place as cases rise in Chicago.

abc7chicago.com

 

[Flugell]

Because a more vaccinated population offers far more overall protection than whatever small advantage there is to spacing out the doses. We’re talking an extra month of unnecessary delay, during which young people are mixing without masks or distancing. The policy made sense when there weren’t enough doses to go around; it no longer does.

ETA: To clarify, I think a month’s gap makes more sense under the present circumstances. It follows the manufactures’ own recommendations (though the Pfizer shots are technically meant to be taken three weeks apart) and gets more people double vaccinated as soon as possible.

Maybe the irresponsible ones are mixing without masks or distancing but the 24 year olds- 30 year olds I know , surprisingly many for an old soul, are doing the exact opposite! They are avoiding mixing with people they don’t know/trust, distancing, wearing masks at all times- even inside if they visit us, taking the freely available home tests 3 times per week and before visiting us (husband immunocompromised). I realise USA have gone for a shorter time but the research is still showing that a longer gap gives better protection and that is obviously advantageous to those who have the doses. There could be a case made for reduced time to allow more people to be vaccinated but only in areas with poor vaccination take up, sorry but it’s primarily London, whereas seems unnecessary where I live. Everyone over the age of 18 has had 2 months to get their first dose so 8 weeks gap was definitely feasible for everyone.
Totally agree the more vaccinated the better!
Stay safe!