Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

from a Wall Street Journal column ( https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/cd...side-effects-hospitalization-kids-11626706868 )

“A tremendous number of government and private policies affecting kids are based on one number: 335. That is how many children under 18 have died with a Covid diagnosis code in their record, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet the CDC, which has 21,000 employees, hasn’t researched each death to find out whether Covid caused it or if it involved a pre-existing medical condition.”

“My research team at Johns Hopkins worked with the nonprofit FAIR Health to analyze approximately 48,000 children under 18 diagnosed with Covid in health-insurance data from April to August 2020. Our report found a mortality rate of zero among children without a pre-existing medical condition such as leukemia.

“The hospitals, located in Little Rock and Springdale, said 24 pediatric patients were hospitalized with Covid-19 on Wednesday, a 50% increase over any previous peak during the pandemic. Of the 24 children, seven are in intensive care and two are on ventilators, the hospital said”

Arkansas Children's hospitals report record high number of children hospitalized with Covid-19 | CNN

Arkansas Children's hospitals report a record number of children are hospitalized with Covid-19 as the illness continues to prey upon the state's unvaccinated population.

www.google.com

I tend to think we should avoid transmitting diseases to kids that will stick them into ICU’s on ventilators.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Worldwide the vaccination rate isn't even possible right now. For the USA, there is a percentage who won't be convinced. They'd rather risk serious illness or death than have their "DNA modified" or other insane beliefs.

Not disagreeing with your point being made in this post. There are a lot of insane beliefs. I just don’t believe the “solution “ is to let it run it’s course and just kill off people. Some of those will be family members or friends and I can’t get on board with it. All this so I don’t have to wear a mask in a store when picking up bananas? There’s worse things in life if our final fight here is because we hate wearing masks.

 

[DisneyFan32]

This factor kind of argues to let delta rip as quickly as possible through the unvaccinated (and whatever breakthroughs occur) to get to herd immunity and end the pandemic. It seems to me that flattening the curve will accomplish nothing but keep Delta around longer and lead to more reinfections and possibly breakthroughs.

I'm suggesting this worldwide, not just in the USA. There is no chance to get enough people vaccinated to get near herd immunity in less than 180 days. I realize there will be illness, death, etc. I don't know what the better suggestion is to be honest.

I hope this is not gonna happen with reinfections and breakthroughs like it's gonna end of the world anytime soon, because we all going to die very soon that is going to be madness of death in the future because I don't want to die very soon as fully vaccinated. We need to vaccinating all people of United States before end of the year.

 

[pixie225]

NYC Mayor DeBlasio is now offering $100 debit cards at state-run sites to get people vaccinated. While that might not be enough incentive, hopefully for some the $100 will help them decide to get it.

De Blasio offers $100 incentive for New Yorkers who get COVID vaccine

New Yorkers who receive their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine at a city-run site will be given $100 — the latest desperate measure in City Hall’s ramped-up effort to get more residents inoculated.…

nypost.com

 

[Muffinpants]

Letting the masses be infected won't work.. the virus is mutating and fast. Soon with enough hosts to do so it will be a variety that dosnt get stopped by the current vaccine. It's already starting to get the children. .

 

[DisneyCane]

Using data from worldometers.info, I charted the first 41 days of the Delta Variant outbreaks in the UK and in FL. While not exactly the same, the shape of the curves are strikingly similar. On a case per 100k basis, FL is probably around 2.5x but I'm just analyzing the shape of the outbreak curve. The UK seven day rolling average peaked on Day 64 of my data. If FL continues to follow the UK curve, I'd expect the peak on or about August 21st. I don't think the daily average for FL will reach the worst case projections but I do think it will peak around 44k.

Hopefully the UK continues to drop off at the current rate and FL will follow the UK pattern once the peak is reached.

 

[SamusAranX]

Here’s the issue no one’s answering. The people requiring hospitalization and/or dying are the unvaccinated adults. They are adults, meaning they’ve have had three months at a minimum to get their vaccines. They chose not to do so and now they are paying the price, like adults do. Why penalize those who took responsibility and got fully vaccinated?

Because in uncommon cases we can still carry the variant, and do not want to contribute to overloading hospitals, nor spreading to people who have legitimate reasons they cannot get vaccinated.

It sucks, but so does most of life. Get over it and wear the damn cloth

 

[lazyboy97o]

Using data from worldometers.info, I charted the first 41 days of the Delta Variant outbreaks in the UK and in FL. While not exactly the same, the shape of the curves are strikingly similar. On a case per 100k basis, FL is probably around 2.5x but I'm just analyzing the shape of the outbreak curve. The UK seven day rolling average peaked on Day 64 of my data. If FL continues to follow the UK curve, I'd expect the peak on or about August 21st. I don't think the daily average for FL will reach the worst case projections but I do think it will peak around 44k.

Hopefully the UK continues to drop off at the current rate and FL will follow the UK pattern once the peak is reached.

View attachment 575775

And AdventHealth is lying about their capacity and will do just fine, right?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wonder what makes Cap Cod so different? In some places the spikes are as little as 10 percent vaccinated. Maybe the high number vaccinated so very few unvaccinated to infect? Serious question.

Mass holes?

…I kid…I kid…

 

[Touchdown]

According to the CDC the R0 of delta is 7-9, up from 2-3 for other varients. That means on average infected individuals infect 7-9 people. That’s why the curves are so pronounced. Vaccinated people have a 10 fold decrease in severe cases but only a 4-6 fold decrease in active disease and those people have the same R0. That’s why the recommendations are the way they are. Glad I don’t have any trips to Florida soon, I would cancel based on that. The only reason I’m not canceling October is that the wave should be over. Yikes, stay safe out there folks.

CDC document warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection

The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the US appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal CDC document.

www.cnn.com

 

[DisneyCane]

And AdventHealth is lying about their capacity and will do just fine, right?

What does that have to do with the data I posted? The point of my post was to show how similar the Delta outbreak appears to be in different places around the world (I didn't take the time to add India but based on other charts it will be similar) and that the cases aren't likely to increase in perpetuity. Most likely, a peak will be hit within about 3 weeks and the cases will come down again.

I don't recall suggesting that AdventHealth is lying. Maybe I typed that in white text?

 

[disneygeek90]

What does that have to do with the data I posted? The point of my post was to show how similar the Delta outbreak appears to be in different places around the world (I didn't take the time to add India but based on other charts it will be similar) and that the cases aren't likely to increase in perpetuity. Most likely, a peak will be hit within about 3 weeks and the cases will come down again.

I don't recall suggesting that AdventHealth is lying. Maybe I typed that in white text?

In the other instances, did something cause or contribute to the drop in cases? (i.e. masks, lockdowns etc). I genuinely don't know. We can talk how we expect cases to drop back like the others all we want, but in a stubborn state like Florida and when majority of the theme parks are only encouraging masks, it seems like it could cause this to linger longer than everyone else.

 

[DisneyCane]

Of course….it’s all a hoax

and Florida “figured it out” in may of 2020…probably why their Governor was saying stupid things on camera instead of dealing with it again yesterday?…I think it was in Utah this time?

For the five thousandth time, there is nothing to "figure out." It is a virus. Viruses spread and infect people and make them sick. All mitigation does is delay the inevitable. You can argue that they bought time until the vaccines were available. Now they are available so there's nothing to buy time for.

As I remember saying a long time ago when the lockdown started, "what good are lockdowns because as soon as you open up it's just going to start spreading again."

According to the CDC the R0 of delta is 7-9, up from 2-3 for other varients. That means on average infected individuals infect 7-9 people. That’s why the curves are so pronounced. Vaccinated people have a 10 fold decrease in severe cases but only a 4-6 fold decrease in active disease and those people have the same R0. That’s why the recommendations are the way they are. Glad I don’t have any trips to Florida soon, I would cancel based on that. The only reason I’m not canceling October is that the wave should be over. Yikes, stay safe out there folks.

CDC document warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection

The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the US appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal CDC document.

www.cnn.com

Where do you live? I ask because the way the CDC community transmission map keeps changing, I'd be shocked if there was any county that isn't ultra rural does not reach "orange" level within a couple of weeks. The orange and red are rapidly encroaching on the northeast.

 

[DisneyCane]

In the other instances, did something cause or contribute to the drop in cases? (i.e. masks, lockdowns etc). I genuinely don't know. We can talk how we expect cases to drop back like the others all we want, but in a stubborn state like Florida and when majority of the theme parks are only encouraging masks, it seems like it could cause this to linger longer than everyone else.

As far as I'm aware, the UK was reducing restrictions during the spike. India I have no idea but I know that vaccination couldn't explain the drop there.

I think it is the opposite. With less mitigation, if anything, the spike will be shorter. It will peak higher but the duration shouldn't be longer.

 

[Touchdown]

For the five thousandth time, there is nothing to "figure out." It is a virus. Viruses spread and infect people and make them sick. All mitigation does is delay the inevitable. You can argue that they bought time until the vaccines were available. Now they are available so there's nothing to buy time for.

As I remember saying a long time ago when the lockdown started, "what good are lockdowns because as soon as you open up it's just going to start spreading again."

Where do you live? I ask because the way the CDC community transmission map keeps changing, I'd be shocked if there was any county that isn't ultra rural does not reach "orange" level within a couple of weeks. The orange and red are rapidly encroaching on the northeast.

Wisconsin. Im going to wait for the announcement from CDC offically but if this report is true I’m canceling my August travel immediately. Those numbers are terrifying, and it will be time to hunker down and wait for this wave to pass. Seriously, that will be my official medical opinion. Basically vaccinated people will have the same chance as catching delta as you did of catching of Covid a year ago and infecting others (although thankfully with a far less risk of severe disease.).

 

[disneygeek90]

Anecdotal... WDW CM that I'm friends with on social media is in a 2 hour covid test line. Both of their roommates tested positive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wisconsin. Im going to wait for the announcement from CDC offically but if this report is true I’m canceling my August travel immediately. Those numbers are terrifying, and it will be time to hunker down and wait for this wave to pass. Seriously, that will be my official medical opinion. Basically vaccinated people will have the same chance as catching delta as you did of catching of Covid a year ago and infecting others (although thankfully with a far less risk of severe disease.).

This was my “non-medical” interpretation from the cdc “leak” this morning as well…

…I was hoping I was wrong.

sigh…and now it’s back to a political play…the vaccine window “honeymoon” is over

 

[Heelz2315]

According to the CDC the R0 of delta is 7-9, up from 2-3 for other varients. That means on average infected individuals infect 7-9 people. That’s why the curves are so pronounced. Vaccinated people have a 10 fold decrease in severe cases but only a 4-6 fold decrease in active disease and those people have the same R0. That’s why the recommendations are the way they are. Glad I don’t have any trips to Florida soon, I would cancel based on that. The only reason I’m not canceling October is that the wave should be over. Yikes, stay safe out there folks.

CDC document warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection

The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the US appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal CDC document.

www.cnn.com

Just out of curiosity why do you think the wave will be over by then? Also I did the math. Out of 162M people fully vaxxed there were 35000 breakthrough cases. That is .02%. That's not great but not bad either. I have to think the total number of breakthroughs that are spreading it could be less than that.

Bottom line is get vaccinated!!!

 

[dreday3]

Legitimate question ahead :

I understand why we are masking again, no questions there. But I do wonder why those vaccinated seem to be in alarm over this development - alarm for themselves.

From reading the reports today - yes, we can now spread this variant as easily as the unvaccinated can, so thus the need for masks which I fully support, but your risk of severe disease is still very, very low. Vaccines are still 90% effective.

Why are we acting now as if suddenly vaccines don't work? They are working exactly as they are supposed to. They taught our bodies to fight Covid and it's working.

If anything, the news today should just offer stronger proof how dumb it is to NOT get vaccinated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just out of curiosity why do you think the wave will be over by then? Also I did the math. Out of 162M people fully vaxxed there were 35000 breakthrough cases. That is .02%. That's not great but not bad either. I have to think the total number of breakthroughs that are spreading it could be less than that.

Bottom line is get vaccinated!!!

I think there’s probably a lot more of asymptomatic breakthroughs…

but the story is still unfolding. There’s no guarantee it will get worse…or better as it stands.