We have seen quite a few but mainly asymptomatic or very mild cases - I guess this is what vaccines are meant to do stop us dying of it rather than not contracting it
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Depends.
Do you live alone?
Do you live with a bunch of vaccinated people?
Do you live with vulnerable people?
Do you live or work or interact with unvaccinated people you would rather not die despite being unvaccinated?
In the fist two, the “more” is probably irrelevant. In the last two, you probably want to be more careful. It may be super rare, but if you’re the one it happens to, that’s not going to be any comfort. That’s the problem with high impact events, even when rare.
Do you live or work or interact with unvaccinated people you don’t care live or die despite being unvaccinated? Use your best humanity for this decision on its importance.
Chomama
Well-Known Member
It feels like that answer is still fluid. It’s gonna be ok for vaccinated people but they may likely get mild Covid in low vax areas. I currently know 14 people within 3 blocks of my house who have Covid. 65% of them are vaxxed. The rest are kids under 12. Yesterday I knew 4. It’s exploding here and we have a very low vaxxed state (worst in country. Yay). I assume most people here will get infected and those of us with a vaccine will be better off. School starts in 12 days. Masks won’t be required and contact tracing has been officially resigned. We are screwed. It’s gonna burn thru the kids. We are also the highest for test positivity in the country. Am I worried about my own death? No. Am I worried about my kids? Yes. Worried about my community? Very very.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
So Fauci is lying? He said it’s very rare in multiple interviews. So did the CDC director.
Chomama
Well-Known Member
I think he will not be sticking with the “rare” statement. If he doesn’t I say he is lying, unfortunately
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
That aligns with what they learned from the outbreak on Cape Cod. 75% of the cases from that outbreak were in vaccinated people.
Chomama
Well-Known Member
Yeah. Not awesome. No one wants to hear it but I live somewhere with a real world control group. We have under 40% of adults vaxxed and 10% of kids 12-17. In the last 3 days I have gone from knowing no one with Covid to knowing dozens. Everywhere I go people are talking about Covid. A month ago we were all essentially back to normal. 4 local camps closed early this week and parents had to go pick up their kids. Sports teams are shutting down practices. I will keep sharing my anecdotes from the “front lines” and I am grateful the rest of family doesn’t live in Alabama. I am very aware that my stories are not hard data but I also know that the reality on the ground here has drastically changed this week
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
It's very scary...and it's infuriating and sad that so many don't want to listen.
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
I have a niece and nephew both too young to be vaccinated
it’s on my mind a lot
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Because underselling the seriousness of the situation that we are facing has been so effective in getting people vaccinated, and for getting everyone else to be in the right mindset to face Delta?
Delta is so serious that even vaccinated people may experience some collateral damage. That is the message that people need to understand. If people are going to take that to mean they should ditch available layers of protection, that is on them for playing around on their health. Racecar drivers don't look at the danger they are placing themselves in, and think, "Oh, I'm going to go out there with no helmet, or fire retardant suit, take off that roll cage."
The way we are letting people indulge in that kind of nonsensical thinking, goes right in the same trash bin as the rest of it. And I'm tired of it. There is no way to "sell" any of this. It should be the truth, and people just have to deal. But even here, anytime the CDC said to take something seriously, people were, "Don't be so negative." And whenever people couldn't imagine that things could be the way the CDC indicated was possible but unknown because novel virus, people attacked their motives and said they were lying.
No, rare is rare.
The report, consistent with what they said, is less rare. That's not “not rare”, just less. Just like “reduce” isn’t none, but less.
Its the risk impact side that matters here. If the risk impact was a broken toe, go wild its rare, and then impact if you're unlucky is relatively small. Hence, my 4 examples. In your case, with 1 unvaccinated family member, just like me, I would be more careful in areas of high transmission than before. Not stay home, just more careful.
For instance, we’re going on vacation next week. Into what looks like a red county. We’re changing our plans some, to be more careful. We’re not canceling though.
Even people on the same sides still need to argue and prove right to each other.
Why do you care how we get to the end? What's the difference if we have to "play nice" with anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, who care if we have to "reward them"?
What's the difference as long as it ends??? Do you want it over or do you want to be "right"?
I honestly have to bow out from Covid talk. It's exhausting and in the end I feel like both extremes would rather be "right" than see it all just end.
News alert - nobody is a "winner" in this.
Why do you care how we get to the end? What's the difference if we have to "play nice" with anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, who care if we have to "reward them"?
What's the difference as long as it ends??? Do you want it over or do you want to be "right"?
I honestly have to bow out from Covid talk. It's exhausting and in the end I feel like both extremes would rather be "right" than see it all just end.
News alert - nobody is a "winner" in this.
Last edited:
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
For those who'd like to read up on what we're talking about...
This is about the Cape Cod outbreak caused by parties and lots of tourists in Provincetown on July 4th...
abcnews.go.com
This is the CDC document covered in the WaPo article...
WaPo article...
Los Angeles County was the first major metropolitan region to reimpose a mask mandate in indoor public settings amid a spike of coronavirus cases. (Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images)
By
Yasmeen Abutaleb
,
Carolyn Y. Johnson
and
Joel Achenbach
Today at 7:42 p.m. EDT
The delta variant of the coronavirus appears to cause more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal federal health document that argues officials must “acknowledge the war has changed.”
The document is an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC and obtained by The Washington Post. It captures the struggle of the nation’s top public health agency to persuade the public to embrace vaccination and prevention measures, including mask-wearing, as cases surge across the United States and new research suggests vaccinated people can spread the virus.
The document strikes an urgent note, revealing the agency knows it must revamp its public messaging to emphasize vaccination as the best defense against a variant so contagious that it acts almost like a different novel virus, leaping from target to target more swiftly than Ebola or the common cold.
It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.
“I finished reading it significantly more concerned than when I began,” Robert Wachter, chairman of the Department of Medicine at the University of California at San Francisco, wrote in an email.
CDC scientists were so alarmed by the new research that the agency earlier this week significantly changed guidance for vaccinated people even before making new data public.
The data and studies cited in the document played a key role in revamped recommendations that call for everyone — vaccinated or not — to wear masks indoors in public settings in certain circumstances, a federal health official said. That official told The Post that the data will be published in full on Friday. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky privately briefed members of Congress on Thursday, drawing on much of the material in the document.
One of the slides states that there is a higher risk among older age groups for hospitalization and death relative to younger people, regardless of vaccination status. Another estimates that there are 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
The document outlines “communication challenges” fueled by cases in vaccinated people, including concerns from local health departments about whether coronavirus vaccines remain effective and a “public convinced vaccines no longer work/booster doses needed.”
The presentation highlights the daunting task the CDC faces. It must continue to emphasize the proven efficacy of the vaccines at preventing severe illness and death while acknowledging milder breakthrough infections may not be so rare after all, and that vaccinated individuals are transmitting the virus. The agency must move the goal posts of success in full public view.
The CDC declined to comment.
“Although it’s rare, we believe that at an individual level, vaccinated people may spread the virus, which is why we updated our recommendation,” according to the federal health official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “Waiting even days to publish the data could result in needless suffering and as public health professionals we cannot accept that.”
The presentation came two days after Walensky announced the reversal in guidance on masking among people who are vaccinated. On May 13, people were told they no longer needed to wear masks indoors or outdoors if they had been vaccinated. The new guidance reflects a strategic retreat in the face of the delta variant. Even people who are vaccinated should wear masks indoors in communities with substantial viral spread or when in the presence of people who are particularly vulnerable to infection and illness, the CDC said.
The document presents new science but also suggests a new strategy is needed on communication, noting that public trust in vaccines may be undermined when people experience or hear about breakthrough cases, especially after public health officials have described them as rare.
Matthew Seeger, a risk communication expert at Wayne State University in Detroit, said a lack of communication about breakthrough infections has proved problematic. Because public health officials had emphasized the great efficacy of the vaccines, the realization that they aren’t perfect may feel like a betrayal.
“We’ve done a great job of telling the public these are miracle vaccines,” Seeger said. “We have probably fallen a little into the trap of over-reassurance, which is one of the challenges of any crisis communication circumstance.”
The CDC’s revised mask guidance stops short of what the internal document calls for. “Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant,” it states.
The document makes clear that vaccination provides substantial protection against the virus. But it also states that the CDC must “improve communications around individual risk among [the] vaccinated” because that risk depends on a host of factors, including age and whether someone has a compromised immune system.
The document includes CDC data from studies showing that the vaccines are not as effective in immunocompromised patients and nursing home residents, raising the possibility that some at-risk individuals will need an additional vaccine dose.
The presentation includes a note that the findings and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the CDC’s official position.
The internal document contains some of the scientific information that influenced the CDC to change its mask guidance. The agency faced criticism from outside experts this week when it changed the mask guidance without releasing the data, a move that violated scientific norms, said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
“You don’t, when you’re a public health official, want to be saying, ‘Trust us, we know, we can’t tell you how,’” Jamieson said. “The scientific norm suggests that when you make a statement based on science, you show the science. … And the second mistake is they do not appear to be candid about the extent to which breakthroughs are yielding hospitalizations.”
The breakthrough cases are to be expected, the CDC briefing states, and will probably rise as a proportion of all cases because there are so many more people vaccinated now. This echoes data seen from studies in other countries, including highly vaccinated Singapore, where 75 percent of new infections reportedly involve breakthrough cases.
The CDC document cites public skepticism about vaccines as one of the challenges: “Public convinced vaccines no longer work,” one of the first slides in the presentation states.
Walter A. Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said he was struck by data showing that vaccinated people who became infected with delta shed just as much virus as those who were not vaccinated. The slide references an outbreak in Barnstable County, Mass., where vaccinated and unvaccinated people shed nearly identical amounts of virus.
“I think this is very important in changing things,” Orenstein said.
A person working in partnership with the CDC on investigations of the delta variant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak, said the data came from a July 4 outbreak in Provincetown, Mass. Genetic analysis of the outbreak showed that people who were vaccinated were transmitting the virus to other vaccinated people. The person said the data was “deeply disconcerting” and a “canary in the coal mine” for scientists who had seen the data.
If the war has changed, as the CDC states, so has the calculus of success and failure. The extreme contagiousness of delta makes herd immunity a more challenging target, infectious-disease experts said.
“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”
The document underscores what scientists and experts have been saying for months: It is time to shift how people think about the pandemic.
Kathleen Neuzil, a vaccine expert at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said getting more people vaccinated remains the priority, but the public may also have to change its relationship to a virus almost certain to be with humanity for the foreseeable future.
“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”
This is about the Cape Cod outbreak caused by parties and lots of tourists in Provincetown on July 4th...
CDC mask decision followed stunning findings from Cape Cod beach outbreak
The CDC's mask decision followed stunning findings from a Cape Cod beach outbreak. The viral load of vaccinated beachgoers changed what we know about the delta variant.
abcnews.go.com
This is the CDC document covered in the WaPo article...
WaPo article...
‘The war has changed’: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe
The internal presentation shows that the agency thinks it is struggling to communicate on vaccine efficacy amid increased breakthrough infections
Los Angeles County was the first major metropolitan region to reimpose a mask mandate in indoor public settings amid a spike of coronavirus cases. (Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images)
By
Yasmeen Abutaleb
,
Carolyn Y. Johnson
and
Joel Achenbach
Today at 7:42 p.m. EDT
The delta variant of the coronavirus appears to cause more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal federal health document that argues officials must “acknowledge the war has changed.”
The document is an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC and obtained by The Washington Post. It captures the struggle of the nation’s top public health agency to persuade the public to embrace vaccination and prevention measures, including mask-wearing, as cases surge across the United States and new research suggests vaccinated people can spread the virus.
The document strikes an urgent note, revealing the agency knows it must revamp its public messaging to emphasize vaccination as the best defense against a variant so contagious that it acts almost like a different novel virus, leaping from target to target more swiftly than Ebola or the common cold.
It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.
“I finished reading it significantly more concerned than when I began,” Robert Wachter, chairman of the Department of Medicine at the University of California at San Francisco, wrote in an email.
CDC scientists were so alarmed by the new research that the agency earlier this week significantly changed guidance for vaccinated people even before making new data public.
The data and studies cited in the document played a key role in revamped recommendations that call for everyone — vaccinated or not — to wear masks indoors in public settings in certain circumstances, a federal health official said. That official told The Post that the data will be published in full on Friday. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky privately briefed members of Congress on Thursday, drawing on much of the material in the document.
One of the slides states that there is a higher risk among older age groups for hospitalization and death relative to younger people, regardless of vaccination status. Another estimates that there are 35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.
The document outlines “communication challenges” fueled by cases in vaccinated people, including concerns from local health departments about whether coronavirus vaccines remain effective and a “public convinced vaccines no longer work/booster doses needed.”
The presentation highlights the daunting task the CDC faces. It must continue to emphasize the proven efficacy of the vaccines at preventing severe illness and death while acknowledging milder breakthrough infections may not be so rare after all, and that vaccinated individuals are transmitting the virus. The agency must move the goal posts of success in full public view.
The CDC declined to comment.
“Although it’s rare, we believe that at an individual level, vaccinated people may spread the virus, which is why we updated our recommendation,” according to the federal health official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “Waiting even days to publish the data could result in needless suffering and as public health professionals we cannot accept that.”
The presentation came two days after Walensky announced the reversal in guidance on masking among people who are vaccinated. On May 13, people were told they no longer needed to wear masks indoors or outdoors if they had been vaccinated. The new guidance reflects a strategic retreat in the face of the delta variant. Even people who are vaccinated should wear masks indoors in communities with substantial viral spread or when in the presence of people who are particularly vulnerable to infection and illness, the CDC said.
The document presents new science but also suggests a new strategy is needed on communication, noting that public trust in vaccines may be undermined when people experience or hear about breakthrough cases, especially after public health officials have described them as rare.
Matthew Seeger, a risk communication expert at Wayne State University in Detroit, said a lack of communication about breakthrough infections has proved problematic. Because public health officials had emphasized the great efficacy of the vaccines, the realization that they aren’t perfect may feel like a betrayal.
“We’ve done a great job of telling the public these are miracle vaccines,” Seeger said. “We have probably fallen a little into the trap of over-reassurance, which is one of the challenges of any crisis communication circumstance.”
The CDC’s revised mask guidance stops short of what the internal document calls for. “Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant,” it states.
The document makes clear that vaccination provides substantial protection against the virus. But it also states that the CDC must “improve communications around individual risk among [the] vaccinated” because that risk depends on a host of factors, including age and whether someone has a compromised immune system.
The document includes CDC data from studies showing that the vaccines are not as effective in immunocompromised patients and nursing home residents, raising the possibility that some at-risk individuals will need an additional vaccine dose.
The presentation includes a note that the findings and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the CDC’s official position.
The internal document contains some of the scientific information that influenced the CDC to change its mask guidance. The agency faced criticism from outside experts this week when it changed the mask guidance without releasing the data, a move that violated scientific norms, said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
“You don’t, when you’re a public health official, want to be saying, ‘Trust us, we know, we can’t tell you how,’” Jamieson said. “The scientific norm suggests that when you make a statement based on science, you show the science. … And the second mistake is they do not appear to be candid about the extent to which breakthroughs are yielding hospitalizations.”
The breakthrough cases are to be expected, the CDC briefing states, and will probably rise as a proportion of all cases because there are so many more people vaccinated now. This echoes data seen from studies in other countries, including highly vaccinated Singapore, where 75 percent of new infections reportedly involve breakthrough cases.
The CDC document cites public skepticism about vaccines as one of the challenges: “Public convinced vaccines no longer work,” one of the first slides in the presentation states.
Walter A. Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said he was struck by data showing that vaccinated people who became infected with delta shed just as much virus as those who were not vaccinated. The slide references an outbreak in Barnstable County, Mass., where vaccinated and unvaccinated people shed nearly identical amounts of virus.
“I think this is very important in changing things,” Orenstein said.
A person working in partnership with the CDC on investigations of the delta variant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak, said the data came from a July 4 outbreak in Provincetown, Mass. Genetic analysis of the outbreak showed that people who were vaccinated were transmitting the virus to other vaccinated people. The person said the data was “deeply disconcerting” and a “canary in the coal mine” for scientists who had seen the data.
If the war has changed, as the CDC states, so has the calculus of success and failure. The extreme contagiousness of delta makes herd immunity a more challenging target, infectious-disease experts said.
“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”
The document underscores what scientists and experts have been saying for months: It is time to shift how people think about the pandemic.
Kathleen Neuzil, a vaccine expert at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said getting more people vaccinated remains the priority, but the public may also have to change its relationship to a virus almost certain to be with humanity for the foreseeable future.
“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”
hopemax
Well-Known Member
You also missed the bit about people more than 180 days past first infection (6 months) may be more likely to be re-infected than with Alpha. Since we're supposed to be paying attention when and what happens when neutralizing antibodies start to wane.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Same for my youngest...he's only 10.
One I know battled covid last year and he refused to get vaccinated . He thinks once he got it, he won't get it again.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Apparently rare isn’t rare or maybe it is. I honestly can’t figure out what’s going on anymore. Maybe the vaccines are a bust, maybe we should just go back into lockdown, maybe that guy who thinks the pandemic will end if we all just pretend it’s not happening is right. I’ve hit my limit on thinking about it. Nothing more to say.
This thread is the only place where "sky is falling" hyperbole is the normal. Everything else I read, from the NY Times to other message boards for other hobbies, have a much more rational and science based thought process on the Delta concerns. This thread essentially is ready to send us into an Australia style lockdown over risks that equate to tenths of a percent.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
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New COVID-19 cases in Orange County hit all-time high
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What Other Deadly Things Will Ron DeSantis Joke About?
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