Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

This mantra keeps being repeated but I would like to pose the question of if it is really true or not. Isn't a virus less likely to mutate and evade defenses if it is spreading easily?

Bacteria don't become antibiotic resistant (the ones that weren't to start with) until antibiotics are overused. I always thought that was an example of Darwinism. If the bacteria isn't being killed off by antibiotics, it has no need to evolve to resist them.

Is it the same with a virus with respect to vaccines? Delta is thriving. Doesn't a random mutation have just as much chance to make it less contagious as more and therefore, why would it "want" to mutate?

I'm genuinely asking the question so if there is a real expert in these things, please answer.

Viruses rely on replication errors to mutate. The more chances the virus has to replicate, the more it has to mutate. Viruses, compared to bacteria, have a very limited genome, so it needs as many chances as possible to develop a useful mutation that gives it some kind of competitive advantage. The vast majority of mutations, though, make the resulting virus much less infectious, and hence, never get a chance to replicate. Drive those numbers into the ground with vaccination, and vaccine and anti-viral (for those viruses that we have antiviral treatment) resistance becomes less likely. This is largely the reason we were able to control HIV. With so few viral replications, the chances for the virus to develop resistance to the broad array of medications we use to fight the disease dropped significantly.

Bacteria, though, have much larger genomes and therefore many more potential mechanisms to develop antibiotic resistance. Sustained, selective evolutionary pressure is more important for them to develop resistance than raw numbers of replications. Unlike viruses, who mostly only need to evade the various tools of the immune system to replicate, individual bacteria cells also directly compete against each other to sustain themselves. So, the random mutation that produces antibiotic resistance will not only allow that bacteria and it's progeny to evade the effects of the antibiotic, but will then be able to out-compete those lines who haven't developed the resistance.

 

[Lilofan]

Not vaccinated. Five trips to FL since last July. I've seen the flights go from 38 people to 180 people during those trips. Everyone was wearing masks, and everyone was keeping their social distance. I've seen Main Street at Disneyworld go from 30 people to 800 people; same deal. I don't know who walked out of those situations and became sick, but I didn't. I'm not in the greatest shape as a 50+ person, but I still will not get a vaccine until it's out of emergency status. Up to this point, I put it in God's hands.

You are risking your life and the life of others by not getting the vaccine. The hospitals are overloaded with unvax patients with covid effects and also victims of this pandemic of the unvaccinated are also the medical professionals stressed beyond belief addressing the situations.

 

[danlb_2000]

White House won't rule out future lockdowns, school closures if CDC says so

The White House has no power to impose lockdowns and school closures except maybe for federal facilities.

 

[lazyboy97o]

This mantra keeps being repeated but I would like to pose the question of if it is really true or not. Isn't a virus less likely to mutate and evade defenses if it is spreading easily?

Bacteria don't become antibiotic resistant (the ones that weren't to start with) until antibiotics are overused. I always thought that was an example of Darwinism. If the bacteria isn't being killed off by antibiotics, it has no need to evolve to resist them.

Is it the same with a virus with respect to vaccines? Delta is thriving. Doesn't a random mutation have just as much chance to make it less contagious as more and therefore, why would it "want" to mutate?

I'm genuinely asking the question so if there is a real expert in these things, please answer.

Evolution isn’t based in need. Mutations aren’t triggered.

Nothing stop a bacteria from naturally being resistant to antibiotics. That mutation just might not spread as much because without antibiotics there is no advantage in survival. Introduce antibiotics and now there is an advantage, that mutation is the last man standing and able to reproduce without competition.

There are almost certainly mutations occurring with Delta viruses that make it less contagious, but those viruses are out done by the more contagious viruses. In order for Delta to be supplanted by something less contagious it would in some other way have to be better at surviving such that it out competes Delta.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Not vaccinated. Five trips to FL since last July. I've seen the flights go from 38 people to 180 people during those trips. Everyone was wearing masks, and everyone was keeping their social distance. I've seen Main Street at Disneyworld go from 30 people to 800 people; same deal. I don't know who walked out of those situations and became sick, but I didn't. I'm not in the greatest shape as a 50+ person, but I still will not get a vaccine until it's out of emergency status. Up to this point, I put it in God's hands.

God put the vaccine in our hands to get us out of this. Don't turn your back on a miracle.

 

[danlb_2000]

This factor kind of argues to let delta rip as quickly as possible through the unvaccinated (and whatever breakthroughs occur) to get to herd immunity and end the pandemic. It seems to me that flattening the curve will accomplish nothing but keep Delta around longer and lead to more reinfections and possibly breakthroughs.

I'm suggesting this worldwide, not just in the USA. There is no chance to get enough people vaccinated to get near herd immunity in less than 180 days. I realize there will be illness, death, etc. I don't know what the better suggestion is to be honest.

Flattening is still needed to keep hospitals from getting overloaded. Overall health outcomes for everyone are going to get worse if a hospital is overloaded.

 

[drizgirl]

Not vaccinated. Five trips to FL since last July. I've seen the flights go from 38 people to 180 people during those trips. Everyone was wearing masks, and everyone was keeping their social distance. I've seen Main Street at Disneyworld go from 30 people to 800 people; same deal. I don't know who walked out of those situations and became sick, but I didn't. I'm not in the greatest shape as a 50+ person, but I still will not get a vaccine until it's out of emergency status. Up to this point, I put it in God's hands.

Maybe God sent you the vaccine and you're saying no.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Not vaccinated. Five trips to FL since last July. I've seen the flights go from 38 people to 180 people during those trips. Everyone was wearing masks, and everyone was keeping their social distance. I've seen Main Street at Disneyworld go from 30 people to 800 people; same deal. I don't know who walked out of those situations and became sick, but I didn't. I'm not in the greatest shape as a 50+ person, but I still will not get a vaccine until it's out of emergency status. Up to this point, I put it in God's hands.

I put it in God’s hands too. That’s why I got vaccinated. So glad scientists used their God-given intellect and care for the common good to develop the vaccine!

 

[danlb_2000]

Letting the masses be infected won't work.. the virus is mutating and fast. Soon with enough hosts to do so it will be a variety that dosnt get stopped by the current vaccine. It's already starting to get the children. .

Compared to some other viruses, COVID actually doesn't mutate that fast. This virus has been around for almost 2 years, has infected 100's of millions of people and has had plenty of chances to mutate, but we still haven't seen a variant that is significantly escaping vaccine or prior-infection protections. Not saying it can't happen, but there is no reason to over react right now. If it does happen, we have a proven platform for developing a vaccine, so a new one could be developed to fight the variant pretty quickly.

 

[Touchdown]

I’ll leave it in Gods hand

So you don’t want to kept alive on a ventilator or have me perform CPR to bring you back to life?

No, no I want everything done! I’m not done living!

(to myself I question if they realize I’m not God)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I got it in God’s hands too. That’s why I got vaccinated. So glad scientists used their God-given intellect and care for the common good to develop the vaccine!

The lady that gave me mine worked at CHOP…she wore a sweater

and I’ve been to several Pfizer facilities…they’re the real deal…like lab coats and microscopes and really cool computers

 

[dreday3]

Am I the only one who gets itchy when people start intermixing God and science?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’ll leave it in Gods hand

So you don’t want to kept alive on a ventilator or have me perform CPR to bring you back to life?

No, no I want everything done! I’m not done living!

(to myself I question if they realize I’m not God)

…don’t chase the rabbit down that hole

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Am I the only one who gets itchy when people start intermixing God and science?

Is that the same as me getting nauseous?

 

[EricsBiscuit]

No point in mandates or lockdowns when you can get vaccinated and be perfectly safe:

 

[dreday3]

Is that the same as me getting nauseous?

Comparable, yes.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Am I the only one who gets itchy when people start intermixing God and science?

I get itchy when people expect God to trump his own natural laws.

 

[GoofGoof]

According to the CDC the R0 of delta is 7-9, up from 2-3 for other varients. That means on average infected individuals infect 7-9 people. That’s why the curves are so pronounced. Vaccinated people have a 10 fold decrease in severe cases but only a 4-6 fold decrease in active disease and those people have the same R0. That’s why the recommendations are the way they are. Glad I don’t have any trips to Florida soon, I would cancel based on that. The only reason I’m not canceling October is that the wave should be over. Yikes, stay safe out there folks.

CDC document warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection

The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the US appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal CDC document.

www.cnn.com

Maybe the variant circulating in FL is different than the one they are talking about (serious possibility). According to Orange County over a recent 5 day period:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New info on breakthrough cases in Orange County:<br><br>7/26: 1213 cases, 98.3% unvaxxed (21 breakthrough)<br>7/25: 602 cases, 95.34% unvaxxed (28 breakthrough)<br>7/24: 960 cases, 100% unvaxxed<br>7/23: 1049 cases, 99% unvaxxed (11 breakthrough)<br>7/22: 943 cases, 99.2% unvaxxed (8 breakthrough)</p>&mdash; Lauren Seabrook (@LSeabrookWFTV) <a href="">July 29, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Based on my math that’s 68 breakthrough infections out of 4,767 total or 1.4% of total cases. We know Orange County is about 50/50 on vaccinations so that doesn’t add up to only 4-6 fold increase in protection. Seems like in the real world the vaccine is still protecting much better or at least in Orange County FL it is. I’m sure someone will dismiss that as lack of testing or bad data or something. Believe what you want.

Who knows what is right, but looking at headlines and news coverage this “leaked report” could be the most damaging blow to the vaccination effort since the JnJ blood clots. People who were hesitant are going to see this as “the vaccines don’t work”. I‘m talking about the real hesitant people who were actually on the fence about going in not the anti-vaxx and politically motivated. Really a terrible situation.

Before everyone jumps all over me for saying this, no I’m not saying they should have held back info or lied. A study is a study, but it should be presented in the proper context. The sensationalized news story is the CDC withheld this report and it leaked out. Bad optics there. The CDC director and other officials said the occurrence is a rare event. What happened in the Cape Cod event is not the rule it’s the exception. We are not seeing 75% of infections in vaccinated people. The media should be presenting the story this way. Instead the picture that’s painted leads people to believe the vaccines don’t work very well anymore to prevent infection or spread. Simply not true.

Last word on this. If this narrative is true and if this variant renders the vaccines much less effective and if vaccinated people are spreading Covid regularly then this wave won’t end any time soon under our current lifestyles. Returning to indoor masks isn’t going to move the needle. We should probably consider a return to stay at home orders and capacity restrictions and full masks all the time along with travel quarantines and recommendations to avoid elderly family and friends and anyone high risk. We are essentially back to March 2020 except this is apparently the most contagious disease known to man now. The really sobering reality is a 3rd booster shot is also useless against it. Another shot of the same vaccine isn’t going to help. We will need a whole new vaccine developed (if one can even be created) and that will take a minimum of 6 months to design, produce and test. Really grim stuff. For me I’ll continue to hope the vaccines still work and these situations are just rare occurrences and not the norm and hopefully we follow the same path as the UK and India where the wave comes and goes. The alternative is too difficult to consider. It goes well beyond the mask fight.

 

[crawale]

The White House has no power to impose lockdowns and school closures except maybe for federal facilities.

No problem with closing all Federal facilities including Congress.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Maybe God sent you the vaccine and you're saying no.

A story I’ve heard a few versions of:

There was a man who lived in a house on low ground and a major storm was coming. People were told to evacuate but the man stayed for the Lord would watch over him. As the rains came a group in a Jeep came and offered him a ride out. He said, “No thank you, the Lord will watch over me.” The flood waters rose and he had to take shelter on his second floor. A man in a boat came and offered to evacuate him. He said, “No thank you, the Lord will watch over me.” The waters continued to rise until he was on his roof. A helicopter came and still he said, “No thank you, the Lord will watch over me.” The waters continued to rise and eventually he drowned. Finding himself in heaven, the man ask God “I believed. Why didn’t you watch over me?” To which God replied, “I sent you a Jeep, a boat and a helicopter. What else did you want me to do?”