Deaths are hard to predict because they are lagging stats. Despite the increase in cases here we haven’t seen deaths increase. Here’s the US graph:
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As you said, lots of the high risk people are vaccinated. We are nearing 90% of 65+ vaccinated and age was a large factor in severe Covid cases. Most Covid deaths occurred in people who were hospitalized so an uptick in hospitalizations would make you think there may be a future uptick in deaths. Here is the hospitalization graph:
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As you can see there is a small uptick but still well below the level we were at at any time prior to the vaccination rollout. Time will tell, but it seems like even with the current uptick in cases there is not a proportional increase in hospitalization and death. That is what would be expected too.
For months many of us were saying we thought that cases would drop as more people got vaccinated but there was a good chance we would see future waves of covid infections, especially among the unvaccinated, but that hospitals shouldn’t be overrun and deaths shouldn’t soar due to most of the high risk people being vaccinated. So far that seems to be playing out. Fingers crossed that continues
The 1st and 2nd waves of Covid In the US had 3 month arcs but the 3rd mini-wave in March when the UK variant became dominant was shorter and less steep. The question now is will we see a peak in the next few weeks and a quicker drop down or will we see the full 3 month arc that won’t end until September. Time will tell but either way let’s hope hospitalizations an deaths stay in check.
