Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

Yeah...MA is low community spread, but rising very quickly. We've got a high vaccination rate (thankfully), but this is why I'm posing the questions I am. I haven't seen a single soul (aside from me and my 10-year-old) still masking up and it's very concerning.

Small numbers and percentages are working against you here for the reporting. It sounds like it's ramping up faster than it really is as each case is a larger percent on it's own of the prior ones. The vaccination rate being high will help keep the rate slow, giving you more time.

From the CDC site from July 1 to July 21, the 7 Day Case Rate per 100K changed:
MA from 6.2 to 33.92 a 5.5 times increase
FL from 59.94 to 290.45 a 4.8 times increase

The reporting would focus on the 5.5 vs the 4.8 and make it sound like MA was in shambles.

While the MA one isn't where we want it to be, it's also not out of control yet. The high vaccination will like keep it from getting to far.

The FL one in contrast, started in a bad spot and it's just way worse now.

For an unvaccinated kid, better to be in MA than FL.
For a vaccinated person, MA is a light rain still able to largely ignore while FL is a steady rain and you've got a good umbrella.

 

[Disney Experience]

Israel data announced today: Pfizer effective in preventing covid Delta variant is 40%, but good at preventing serious covid and hospitalization. It is noted that a few factors may be confounding the results causing effectiveness to be lower than it would be for the general popukation( Hotspots are where testing / sequencing was done, less young people tested)

Israel reports COVID vaccine effectiveness against infection down to 40%; data might be skewed

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[DisneyCane]

Israel data announced today: Pfizer effective in preventing covid Delta variant is 40%, but good at preventing serious covid and hospitalization. It is noted that a few factors may be confounding the results causing effectiveness to be lower than it is.( Hotspots are were testing / sequencing was done, less young people tested)

Israel reports COVID vaccine effectiveness against infection down to 40%; data might be skewed

***

www.haaretz.com

There is something wrong with how these Israeli studies are being done. 40% effectiveness would be considered very poor yet nobody from the US CDC or NIH has been saying that the vaccines are not effective against the Delta variant.

Also, there is absolutely no way that Orange County, FL could have so few breakthrough infections if the vaccines were that ineffective against the Delta variant. 80%+ of cases are Delta now but with around half of the population fully vaccinated, they report less than 5% of cases are in vaccinated people. That does not jibe with vaccines at 40% effectiveness.

 

[Disney Experience]

There is something wrong with how these Israeli studies are being done. 40% effectiveness would be considered very poor yet nobody from the US CDC or NIH has been saying that the vaccines are not effective against the Delta variant.

Also, there is absolutely no way that Orange County, FL could have so few breakthrough infections if the vaccines were that ineffective against the Delta variant. 80%+ of cases are Delta now but with around half of the population fully vaccinated, they report less than 5% of cases are in vaccinated people. That does not jibe with vaccines at 40% effectiveness.

Israel did show good protection against serious covid from delta . The data does have some issues

Other data from Israel showed that people vaccinated in Jan had a much higher chance of getting covid in the last month than those who were vaccinated in May. The problem with that analysis is that in Israel the demographics of who was vaccinated in Jan is much different than in May

But data from labs, UK, and US do not seem to line up with Israel.(40%) Not sure if they are measuring the same thing.

 

[lisa12000]

There is something wrong with how these Israeli studies are being done. 40% effectiveness would be considered very poor yet nobody from the US CDC or NIH has been saying that the vaccines are not effective against the Delta variant.

Also, there is absolutely no way that Orange County, FL could have so few breakthrough infections if the vaccines were that ineffective against the Delta variant. 80%+ of cases are Delta now but with around half of the population fully vaccinated, they report less than 5% of cases are in vaccinated people. That does not jibe with vaccines at 40% effectiveness.

The studies from the uk are much higher than this - there is a suggestion that this may be due to the 8 week 2nd dose regime being a sweet spot for protection - I’ll try and find the article suggesting it

 

[GoofGoof]

From the article on Israel:
One medical expert who is consulting the Health Ministry said that the data is still too distorted to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infection and mild symptoms.

It is devastating to the effort to get more people vaccinated for this type of information to be spread around. Most people won’t read the details they will just see 40% in the headline and say, why bother with a vaccine that doesn’t work. It is tragic to see and I’m not sure what motivates people to put stuff like this out and also spread it.

 

[DisneyFan32]

From the article on Israel:
One medical expert who is consulting the Health Ministry said that the data is still too distorted to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infection and mild symptoms.

It is devastating to the effort to get more people vaccinated for this type of information to be spread around. Most people won’t read the details they will just see 40% in the headline and say, why bother with a vaccine that doesn’t work. It is tragic to see and I’m not sure what motivates people to put stuff like this out and also spread it.

I hope by Fall/Winter things will be much better than last year's horrible COVID-19 surges.

 

[willtravel]

Israel data announced today: Pfizer effective in preventing covid Delta variant is 40%, but good at preventing serious covid and hospitalization. It is noted that a few factors may be confounding the results causing effectiveness to be lower than it would be for the general popukation( Hotspots are where testing / sequencing was done, less young people tested)

Israel reports COVID vaccine effectiveness against infection down to 40%; data might be skewed

***

www.haaretz.com

When I see an article like this, I can see why people don't want to get a shot. I am starting to think science (experts) should keep there mouth shut.

 

[danlb_2000]

Well the reduced replication certainly is comforting.

(My brain automatically went "Oh, we gave it a partial vasectomy" )

There is also a benefit to a vaccinated person being re-exposed to the virus, it works as a natural booster since you immune system needs to ramp back up to fight the infection.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We are back to masking up for sure when in stores and getting in and out asap. In all stores I've been in during the past two weeks, except for some clearly privately owned establishments, employees are masked, though there is currently no state mandate.
Our vaccination rate is pretty good, but I still get looks from unmasked people, which I read as disapproval, which is weird.
IMO, either they think I am unvaxed, or, that there is no mandate/legal requirement to mask, why would I do so (overprotective , Ha Ha If no mandate, it can't be that serious)? But, that's pure speculation on my part, as no sounds are exchanged.
I'm fully vaxed, but I still don't know who else is, and why invite Delta further than I need to when in the general public?
My vaccination provides a level of comfort to going out and doing things vs. just having things delivered.

The look is that you are unvaccinated…hence the disdain…

but I bet few of the unvaccinated are masking…they are either in the cult of dumb or the cult of distrust

 

[GoofGoof]

When I see an article like this, I can see why people don't want to get a shot. I am starting to think science (experts) should keep there mouth shut.

I think they should at least wait until they have actual data to draw proper conclusions. If the vaccines are really not very effective then we need to know but that does not appear to be the case at all. I don’t know Israel’s political situation very well, but something seems fishy about all of this. I know there’s a push from some people there to reinstate the vaccine passport system they had. I wonder if this is an attempt to disparage the vaccines to avoid that step. If the vaccine is only 40% effective that all but eliminates any usefulness of a vaccine passport. Just a theory.

 

[dreday3]

From the article on Israel:
One medical expert who is consulting the Health Ministry said that the data is still too distorted to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infection and mild symptoms.

It is devastating to the effort to get more people vaccinated for this type of information to be spread around. Most people won’t read the details they will just see 40% in the headline and say, why bother with a vaccine that doesn’t work. It is tragic to see and I’m not sure what motivates people to put stuff like this out and also spread it.

The report also says this "The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing hospitalizations and severe symptoms stands at 88 percent and 91 percent, respectively, the ministry said."

But of course that won't be the headline. Also that the data comes from a majority older population in hotspots. OF COURSE it's skewed...

 

[havoc315]

I think they should at least wait until they have actual data to draw proper conclusions. If the vaccines are really not very effective then we need to know but that does not appear to be the case at all. I don’t know Israel’s political situation very well, but something seems fishy about all of this. I know there’s a push from some people there to reinstate the vaccine passport system they had. I wonder if this is an attempt to disparage the vaccines to avoid that step. If the vaccine is only 40% effective that all but eliminates any usefulness of a vaccine passport. Just a theory.

Nobody in Israel is claiming the vaccine is only 40% effective --- The article and study cite only 40% effective at avoiding infection (asymptomatic and low symptom). The article and study continue to find the vaccine is very effective (over 85%) at preventing serious infection, hospitalization and death.
The article and study are not anti-vax -- Quite the opposite, they are pro-vax. Get the vaccine to avoid serious infection, hospitalization and death.
Their study -- which does have some questions in the data collection -- merely suggests the vaccines aren't as effective as generally avoiding Delta infection.

"The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing hospitalizations and severe symptoms stands at 88 percent and 91 percent, respectively, the ministry said. "

(Additionally, the source, Haaretz is perhaps the most liberal pro-vax news source in Israel... it's their Huffington Post)

Now, whether or not 40% is accurate, there is indeed growing evidence that the vaccine is indeed less effective in terms of infection, compared to prior variants. The CDC is no longer officially reporting on breakthrough infections -- only breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations.
But there is still evidence of increasing breakthrough infections with Delta. I spoke with one virologist who actually expects at this point, that even most vaccinated people will eventually get infected with Delta, though the vast majority would be asymptomatic or low symptoms.

At this juncture, there is limited value to any mitigation, apart from policies that encourage (or mandate) vaccination.

 

[havoc315]

Why Vaccinated People Are Getting ‘Breakthrough’ Infections (Published 2021)

The vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness and death, but they are not a golden shield against the coronavirus.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DisneyFan32]

Why Vaccinated People Are Getting ‘Breakthrough’ Infections (Published 2021)

The vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness and death, but they are not a golden shield against the coronavirus.

www.nytimes.com

I'm doomed......

 

[Andrew C]

Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against COVID-19 Delta variant: study

Those who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine are 88% protected against severe cases of then Delta variant — now the dominant coronavirus strain in the US — according to one new s…

nypost.com

 

[KrzyKtty]

I think at this point most people just need to accept that they will get some sort of variant of the virus at some point in their lives. It's not going anywhere. We've had the flu vaccine for decades, and guess what, people still get the flu. But like it has been pointed out multiple times, if you're vaccinated against it, the likelihood of you dying from it is astronomically low. At that point, it's not something you should be worried about anyway.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I am fascinated at the use of the words “Breakthrough infections.” The vaccine will not stop you from getting infected. The vaccine enables your body to have an immune response when you are infected, to help your body to fight off the infection.

All the other stuff we should be doing like; washing your hands, self awareness of what you touch and not touching your face, frequent use of hand sanitizer, trying to distance, staying home when you are sick, these are things we need to keep doing!

 

[Trauma]

I think at this point most people just need to accept that they will get some sort of variant of the virus at some point in their lives. It's not going anywhere. We've had the flu vaccine for decades, and guess what, people still get the flu. But like it has been pointed out multiple times, if you're vaccinated against it, the likelihood of you dying from it is astronomically low. At that point, it's not something you should be worried about anyway.

I know people will disagree strongly with you but I think your right.

This is Endemic.

Get you vaccine.

Your booster when necessary.

Hope for the best.

 

[correcaminos]

I'm doomed......

It's a paywall for me, so I cannot read. No one vaccinated is doomed though. NYT likes to be a hint sensationalized too