Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

We know vaccinated people are continuing to contract the virus (it's not an impenetrable shield), and the virus is replicating well enough for people to test positive.

Not an impenetrable shield is an important point. In many areas, it was an even more important 5 months ago when spread was much higher.

Combine that with this map.

Someone in a blue low transmission are, the vaccine is probably all the mitigation needed. Someone unvaccinated, good ventilation is probably enough too.

Someone in a high area though, it's more questionable. Some extra mitigation beyond the vaccine is probably a good idea when in poorly ventilated areas with unknown people.

If it's raining, and the vaccine is a rain coat. In a light rain, it's more than enough. In a stronger downpour, having an umbrella too would be nice. If it's a hurricane, both may still not be enough to keep you completely dry.

From that map, I don't think there's a hurricane level of transmission anywhere in the US. Perhaps MO is trending towards that.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Selfishly I hope that a lot of people who planned to go to WDW take your lead so that it's less crowded when I visit.

You won’t find those people at WDW.

 

[Trauma]

Depends how much you drive, how carefully you drive. Depends if you're in an area of high community Covid spread, depends on whether you take any precautions, depends on which if any vaccine.




Many of those ways are indeed within our control, as a community. If schools have decent security, then they are far less likely to have an active shooter situation.
If everyone in a community gets vaccinated, then that significantly reduces the risk of breakthrough infections.




Do you wear a seatbelt?

So... precautions are PART of NORMAL life.

I don’t understand your point. Yes I wear a seatbelt.

Is the vaccine not the equivalent of a seatbelt ?

I can still die in a car accident with my seat belt on following all the rules of the road due to someone else’s recklessness. Sounds familiar right?

Doesn’t mean I stop driving just because no matter how safe I am I can still die. I do what’s in my power.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Oh no, the seatbelt argument. Again. The flu can’t be far behind.

 

[Trauma]

Oh no, the seatbelt argument. Again. The flu can’t be far behind.

Someone asked me if a wear a seatbelt, I have no idea what that has to do with the virus but I answered.

 

[havoc315]

I don’t understand your point. Yes I wear a seatbelt.

Is the vaccine not the equivalent of a seatbelt ?

I can still die in a car accident with my seat belt on following all the rules of the road due to someone else’s recklessness. Sounds familiar right?

Doesn’t mean I stop driving just because no matter how safe I am I can still die. I do what’s in my power.

But you don't JUST use the seatbelt -- Your car also has airbags. Cars are being designed with better and better crash protection, collision avoidance, anti-lock breaks. Lots and lots of measures to protect your safety. Then we have laws for safe driving, like speed limits, stop signs, etc. You don't stop at JUST the seatbelt.

Same with Covid -- Individual vaccination is just level of protection. Depends on various factors, additional measures of protection may be appropriate.

Nobody here is saying that because of Covid, you should continue to lock yourself in your home.
-- Encouraging community vaccination
--Masking in higher risk situations where there is wide community spread
-- Continued improvement in ventilation and avoidance of poorly ventilated large gatherings

This is all the equivalent of the driving comparison:
-- Speed limits and driving laws: Requiring/encouraging others to get vaccinated
--Seatbelts in addition to airbags: Masks in addition to vaccine, in some situations
-- Improving ventilation, pushing gatherings to well ventilated areas: Anti-lock breaks, crash avoidance systems, etc.

We live normal life with precautions every day.

 

[Trauma]

What’s the actual data on this I think that would be helpful to this discussion.

I think it’s agreed that the chance of you catching it after mRNA is 5-6% correct?

What percentage of those cases are hospitalized?

What percentage die?

Are these infected vaccinated people spreading the virus to other vaccinated people?

It would also be Interesting to know the facts of the vaccinated deaths. What is the age and overall health condition of these deaths?

 

[Archie123]

Oh no, the seatbelt argument. Again. The flu can’t be far behind.

The flu kills more than CV. Happy?

 

[Trauma]

But you don't JUST use the seatbelt -- Your car also has airbags. Cars are being designed with better and better crash protection, collision avoidance, anti-lock breaks. Lots and lots of measures to protect your safety. Then we have laws for safe driving, like speed limits, stop signs, etc. You don't stop at JUST the seatbelt.

Same with Covid -- Individual vaccination is just level of protection. Depends on various factors, additional measures of protection may be appropriate.

Nobody here is saying that because of Covid, you should continue to lock yourself in your home.
-- Encouraging community vaccination
--Masking in higher risk situations where there is wide community spread
-- Continued improvement in ventilation and avoidance of poorly ventilated large gatherings

This is all the equivalent of the driving comparison:
-- Speed limits and driving laws: Requiring/encouraging others to get vaccinated
--Seatbelts in addition to airbags: Masks in addition to vaccine, in some situations
-- Improving ventilation, pushing gatherings to well ventilated areas: Anti-lock breaks, crash avoidance systems, etc.

We live normal life with precautions every day.

Ok so let’s say if everyone wore their seatbelt
no one would die in a car accident making further mitigation pointless.

However for some reason 30% of people refuse to wear them for “reasons”

Should we all have to pay 7k more for our car because they have to add additional mitigation for that 30%?

 

[havoc315]

What’s the actual data on this I think that would be helpful to this discussion.

I think it’s agreed that the chance of you catching it after mRNA is 5-6% correct?

No. The chances of you “catching” it are dependent on the level of community spread, which variants, etc.

For Delta, Your chances of “catching it” are about 88% lower than someone unvaccinated, in the same community, with the same level of precautions.

So if there is low community spread with reasonable precautions — so the chances of an unvaccinated person “catching” it is only 1%… then the risk to a vaccinated person is less than 0.1%.

If there is wide community spread with poor precautions, so the risk to a unvaccinated person is 50%… then the risk to a vaccinated person is about 5%.

All depends on the community spread and precautions. Which is why we need to continue to be mindful of community spread and precautions.

For example, speaking for myself, my community mow has very low transmission. About 1/100,000.
I don’t wear a mask any longer in most situations, but I do mask In crowded poorly ventilated situations.

What percentage of those cases are hospitalized?

What percentage die?

Are these infected vaccinated people spreading the virus to other vaccinated people?

It would also be Interesting to know the facts of the vaccinated deaths. What is the age and overall health condition of these deaths?

 

[havoc315]

Ok so let’s say if everyone wore their seatbelt
no one would die in a car accident making further mitigation pointless.

However for some reason 30% of people refuse to wear them for “reasons”

Should we all have to pay 7k more for our car because they have to add additional mitigation for that 30%?

??? To answer your question— cars do indeed add lots of other safety features beyond seatbelts.

Are you saying you want all other safety measures stripped out of cars?

and let’s remember, neither seatbelts nor vaccines are 100% effective.

 

[mmascari]

So I keep reading about all then unvaccinated people that Im suppose to be so concerned about because they can’t take 10 minutes out of their day to get a free shot.

You probably didn't mean it this way, but there's been a ton of posts along the same lines. As a parent of an 11 year old, every time I read one of these, this is what I see:

So I keep reading about your kid and I don't give a crap if they catch COVID. They should just roll the dice and if they're unlucky and have a bad outcome, that's just statistics. If they're unlucky have and have long term issues but not death instead, also just statistics. Your kid doesn't mean anything to me and I don't care about them at all. It's their choice to not be 12 and not take 10 minutes to get a free shot.

I have to assume that this same group of people never used car seats for their kids. Just rolled the dice that riding in a car was safe enough without them. Or, they just don't have kids.

I can tell you, as a parent of a kid who is not eligible for vaccination, knowing the community spread level is very important. Areas where it's low enough, I'm very comfortable taking them to events with good ventilation. For instance, we're going to a professional soccer game, sitting in crowded stands, no masks, in an area of low transmission, basically like normal. We did the same when transmission was a little higher, distance and no mask in the stands, masks in the crowded concourse. Earlier when transmission was even higher, we didn't do crowded or poor ventilation. Even now with low transmission, we don't do poor ventilation.

 

[Parker in NYC]

The flu kills more than CV. Happy?

No, I don’t get my kicks off death statistics.

 

[Archie123]

No, I don’t get my kicks off death statistics.

What can I say, I have a morbid sense of humor.

 

[dreday3]

Also, I am curious. I thought it was very rare for a virus to mutate to something more deadly (against it's nature - wants to survive). More easily transmissible, yes, but I thought more deadly was rare.

Is Delta variant more deadly or it's just affecting the more vulnerable which makes it seem more deadly?

 

[Trauma]

??? To answer your question— cars do indeed add lots of other safety features beyond seatbelts.

Are you saying you want all other safety measures stripped out of cars?

and let’s remember, neither seatbelts nor vaccines are 100% effective.

It’s called a hypothetical. If just everyone wearing a seatbelt would prevent all deaths and hospitalizations from crashes.

Similar to how if we had 100% vaccination rate we wouldn’t be talking about this virus.

 

[Parker in NYC]

What can I say, I have a morbid sense of humor.

Then this was certainly your year(s).

 

[Trauma]

You probably didn't mean it this way, but there's been a ton of posts along the same lines. As a parent of an 11 year old, every time I read one of these, this is what I see:


I have to assume that this same group of people never used car seats for their kids. Just rolled the dice that riding in a car was safe enough without them. Or, they just don't have kids.

I can tell you, as a parent of a kid who is not eligible for vaccination, knowing the community spread level is very important. Areas where it's low enough, I'm very comfortable taking them to events with good ventilation. For instance, we're going to a professional soccer game, sitting in crowded stands, no masks, in an area of low transmission, basically like normal. We did the same when transmission was a little higher, distance and no mask in the stands, masks in the crowded concourse. Earlier when transmission was even higher, we didn't do crowded or poor ventilation. Even now with low transmission, we don't do poor ventilation.

Before my daughter was able to be vaccinated we took full precautions to keep her safe. Many effected our quality of life but oh well we did what we need to do.

No one forced me to have kids I have to accept whatever responsibilities come along with that.

 

[DisneyCane]

But you don't JUST use the seatbelt -- Your car also has airbags. Cars are being designed with better and better crash protection, collision avoidance, anti-lock breaks. Lots and lots of measures to protect your safety. Then we have laws for safe driving, like speed limits, stop signs, etc. You don't stop at JUST the seatbelt.

Same with Covid -- Individual vaccination is just level of protection. Depends on various factors, additional measures of protection may be appropriate.

Nobody here is saying that because of Covid, you should continue to lock yourself in your home.
-- Encouraging community vaccination
--Masking in higher risk situations where there is wide community spread
-- Continued improvement in ventilation and avoidance of poorly ventilated large gatherings

This is all the equivalent of the driving comparison:
-- Speed limits and driving laws: Requiring/encouraging others to get vaccinated
--Seatbelts in addition to airbags: Masks in addition to vaccine, in some situations
-- Improving ventilation, pushing gatherings to well ventilated areas: Anti-lock breaks, crash avoidance systems, etc.

We live normal life with precautions every day.

Based upon the breakthrough infection data, during a period of time with MUCH higher community spread than currently exists, the risk of death from COVID to a fully vaccinated person was statistically irrelevant to the risk of the same person dying from any cause over the following twelve months. How low does the risk need to be in your eyes?

If you want to try and have zero risk then the only thing you can do is cut off all human contact and stay home. That's not zero risk either since the building you are in could collapse while you are sleeping (RIP to those residents).

The only way to have zero risk of dying is to already be dead.

 

[Trauma]

No. The chances of you “catching” it are dependent on the level of community spread, which variants, etc.

For Delta, Your chances of “catching it” are about 88% lower than someone unvaccinated, in the same community, with the same level of precautions.

So if there is low community spread with reasonable precautions — so the chances of an unvaccinated person “catching” it is only 1%… then the risk to a vaccinated person is less than 0.1%.

If there is wide community spread with poor precautions, so the risk to a unvaccinated person is 50%… then the risk to a vaccinated person is about 5%.

All depends on the community spread and precautions. Which is why we need to continue to be mindful of community spread and precautions.

For example, speaking for myself, my community mow has very low transmission. About 1/100,000.
I don’t wear a mask any longer in most situations, but I do mask In crowded poorly ventilated situations.

Now this is a great post I truly appreciate this.

So basically if things are bad my chances of infection are around 5%.

Now I would like to learn my chances of death if that happens.

Btw I’m not asking this because I’m lazy it’s just so confusing to find honest data now I don’t know where to look.