• Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.You can use your Twitter or Facebook account to sign up, or register directly.

Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yes, mutations are a concern, but what can really be done about it at this point? The specter of a possible immunity resistant mutations isn't going to convince many hold outs to get the vaccine, and even if we did get a high vaccination rate in the US, it's going to take years to get the rest of the world vaccinated and if a mutations pops up there it's only a matter of time before it gets here.
I am hopeful that we have already reached a high enough vaccination rate in a lot of places and we aren’t done vaccinating yet. In my local county of 830,000 people 5 of the 7 days last week had single digit new cases and 1 day had just a single new case reported. We have about 64% of the total population vaccinated with at least 1 dose and well north of 75% of adults. I know some people feel the decline in cases is more tied to seasonality, but even at our low points last Summer our best numbers were over 25 cases a day. I definitely think the vaccines are working.

I agree we can’t do a whole lot more to get more people vaccinated, but I’m not giving up yet either. We are at 65.3% of adults with one dose per the CDC. Last Saturday we were at 64.3%. 1% a week isn’t great but it’s not nothing. Slow (very slow) but somewhat steady pace. I do think we will exceed 70% of adults eventually, but not likely by July 4th. I think the pace of teens being vaccinated has dropped off due to the vaccine scares so I’m not sure how that factors into the overall plan. We may need more adults vaccinated if less teens go.

The worldwide situation is depressing. It does feel a bit shallow of a ”victory” to celebrate WDW returning to somewhat normal when the majority of the rest of the world is in such bad shape. I do think it’s OK to be happy about the little things, but we have a way to go before the worldwide end of this pandemic. Mutations are a concern but even if 100% of eligible Americans were vaccinated right now that would still be the case worldwide.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I am hopeful that we have already reached a high enough vaccination rate in a lot of places and we aren’t done vaccinating yet. In my local county of 830,000 people 5 of the 7 days last week had single digit new cases and 1 day had just a single new case reported. We have about 64% of the total population vaccinated with at least 1 dose and well north of 75% of adults. I know some people feel the decline in cases is more tied to seasonality, but even at our low points last Summer our best numbers were over 25 cases a day. I definitely think the vaccines are working.

I agree we can’t do a whole lot more to get more people vaccinated, but I’m not giving up yet either. We are at 65.3% of adults with one dose per the CDC. Last Saturday we were at 64.3%. 1% a week isn’t great but it’s not nothing. Slow (very slow) but somewhat steady pace. I do think we will exceed 70% of adults eventually, but not likely by July 4th. I think the pace of teens being vaccinated has dropped off due to the vaccine scares so I’m not sure how that factors into the overall plan. We may need more adults vaccinated if less teens go.

The worldwide situation is depressing. It does feel a bit shallow of a ”victory” to celebrate WDW returning to somewhat normal when the majority of the rest of the world is in such bad shape. I do think it’s OK to be happy about the little things, but we have a way to go before the worldwide end of this pandemic. Mutations are a concern but even if 100% of eligible Americans were vaccinated right now that would still be the case worldwide.
Even in FL where people aren't exactly falling all over themselves to get vaccinated, around 150k people were newly vaccinated last week. Slow but that's still a pace of 1 million new people in less than 7 weeks (a little under 5% of the population).

Using the FL weekly report which only includes FL residents and the estimated 2020 population of 21.73 million, I calculate 49% of FL residents currently have at least one shot. If the vaccination pace stays steady, it is possible to get to the 60% Israel benchmark in 14 weeks (by 9/24).

Who knows, combined with immunity from infections, the 50% vaccinated number might be enough to get to herd immunity. There are 2,310,881 cases reported to date in FL residents. Estimates from studies are that there were 2-3 times the reported cases in actual infections. Even if we use the low number, that's 21% of the population that potentially has natural immunity and that is skewed to the least vaccinated age groups.
 

DonniePeverley

Active Member
With the more transmissible Delta Indian variant coming - it may have been prudent to wait a few more months till all data of the Delta Indian variant was seen before abandoning ALL measures, especially face masks indoors. As i've said the UK has seen cases shoot up 300% in a few weeks with the Delta variant.

In my opinion abandoning all safety measures is wreckless and dangerous. A warning from India is that they thought the pandemic was over, they relaxed all restrictions, held large events, and then bang within a few weeks everything got out of control again.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
With the more transmissible Delta Indian variant coming - it may have been prudent to wait a few more months till all data of the Delta Indian variant was seen before abandoning ALL measures, especially face masks indoors. As i've said the UK has seen cases shoot up 300% in a few weeks with the Delta variant.

In my opinion abandoning all safety measures is wreckless and dangerous. A warning from India is that they thought the pandemic was over, they relaxed all restrictions, held large events, and then bang within a few weeks everything got out of control again.
India wasn’t vaccinated, most of the UK wasn’t fully vaccinated, we do t know what’s going to happen, but so far we are still doing ok, 5 weeks later.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
With the more transmissible Delta Indian variant coming - it may have been prudent to wait a few more months till all data of the Delta Indian variant was seen before abandoning ALL measures, especially face masks indoors. As i've said the UK has seen cases shoot up 300% in a few weeks with the Delta variant.

In my opinion abandoning all safety measures is wreckless and dangerous. A warning from India is that they thought the pandemic was over, they relaxed all restrictions, held large events, and then bang within a few weeks everything got out of control again.
15% of India’s population has at least 1 dose of the vaccine today and that number was smaller when the variant took hold there. They had no good reason to believe the pandemic was over. The US vaccination rate is currently 53.2%. Big difference. In the UK they had a higher percentage vaccinated than India, but their spike in cases is not as extreme as what happened in India. In the UK today 96% of the new delta variant infections are coming in people who are not fully vaccinated. When the variant began to grow they were not vaccinating anyone under 30 yet. That has changed now.

We have no way of knowing if the Delta variant will become a major issue here or if it will follow the path of the UK variant and become the dominant strain but not result in a long term or widespread new wave of infections. So far the mRNA vaccines look to be highly effective vs all variants so people should get vaccinated and then there’s much less to worry about.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
With the more transmissible Delta Indian variant coming - it may have been prudent to wait a few more months till all data of the Delta Indian variant was seen before abandoning ALL measures, especially face masks indoors. As i've said the UK has seen cases shoot up 300% in a few weeks with the Delta variant.

In my opinion abandoning all safety measures is wreckless and dangerous. A warning from India is that they thought the pandemic was over, they relaxed all restrictions, held large events, and then bang within a few weeks everything got out of control again.
India didn't have 45% of the population fully vaccinated. India also didn't have a vaccine which is extremely effective against the Delta variant available to anybody who wants it and walks into a Walmart store.

If it gets out of control in the US again, it will be among people who chose not to be vaccinated. No reason to continue to have restrictions to protect people who elect not to protect themselves.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Even in FL where people aren't exactly falling all over themselves to get vaccinated, around 150k people were newly vaccinated last week. Slow but that's still a pace of 1 million new people in less than 7 weeks (a little under 5% of the population).

Using the FL weekly report which only includes FL residents and the estimated 2020 population of 21.73 million, I calculate 49% of FL residents currently have at least one shot. If the vaccination pace stays steady, it is possible to get to the 60% Israel benchmark in 14 weeks (by 9/24).

Who knows, combined with immunity from infections, the 50% vaccinated number might be enough to get to herd immunity. There are 2,310,881 cases reported to date in FL residents. Estimates from studies are that there were 2-3 times the reported cases in actual infections. Even if we use the low number, that's 21% of the population that potentially has natural immunity and that is skewed to the least vaccinated age groups.
The 60% is just a benchmark too. In Israel their steep drop off occurred around when they hit 55% of the total population vaccinated. Not saying that’s a magic number or that Israel is a perfect match to the US but it is a benchmark we have to look at for ballpark analysis.

Looking at FL today, the last remaining covid mitigations that were put in place by either local governments or businesses directly have rolled off or will soon and the trajectory is still downward on cases. If we look at last Summer it was around this time that cases spiked big time. So far so good this year 🤞🤞🤞
 

lisa12000

Well-Known Member
India didn't have 45% of the population fully vaccinated. India also didn't have a vaccine which is extremely effective against the Delta variant available to anybody who wants it and walks into a Walmart store.

If it gets out of control in the US again, it will be among people who chose not to be vaccinated. No reason to continue to have restrictions to protect people who elect not to protect themselves.

India does have a vaccine extremely effective against delta - studies have shown that health workers that had had AZ were NOT infected with the virus or into health few cases got it very mildly! In uk our over 60 rates have hardly gone up at all suggesting high efficacy of AZ
 
The issue with the US is that vaccination rates aren’t uniform. So in some places like the Northeast and California you have a lot of people getting the vaccine so those areas should do pretty well on knocking down covid, including the delta variant. However, many other states and even certain areas in states (for example many of the northern and non-coastal counties in CA) the vaccine rate is much lower. Those areas are just going to keep cycling covid outbreaks, and likely spawning and spreading and variants, until enough people in those areas are vaccinated.

I don’t have much concern or sympathy for any adult who refuses to get vaccinated at this point, unless they can’t be vaccinated due to a medical condition. I was just at a restaurant having lunch today when a guy in the booth behind me says, “I would rather retire than get the vaccine”. Ok, dude, but don’t complain to me when covid knocks you on your ***.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
15% of India’s population has at least 1 dose of the vaccine today and that number was smaller when the variant took hold there. They had no good reason to believe the pandemic was over. The US vaccination rate is currently 53.2%. Big difference. In the UK they had a higher percentage vaccinated than India, but their spike in cases is not as extreme as what happened in India. In the UK today 96% of the new delta variant infections are coming in people who are not fully vaccinated. When the variant began to grow they were not vaccinating anyone under 30 yet. That has changed now.

We have no way of knowing if the Delta variant will become a major issue here or if it will follow the path of the UK variant and become the dominant strain but not result in a long term or widespread new wave of infections. So far the mRNA vaccines look to be highly effective vs all variants so people should get vaccinated and then there’s much less to worry about.
I'm scared about Delta variant now. I hope it's worse by fall/winter at end of this year.....is NJ and NY will be safe from Delta variant by this fall/winter?
 

DonniePeverley

Active Member
The 60% is just a benchmark too. In Israel their steep drop off occurred around when they hit 55% of the total population vaccinated. Not saying that’s a magic number or that Israel is a perfect match to the US but it is a benchmark we have to look at for ballpark analysis.

Looking at FL today, the last remaining covid mitigations that were put in place by either local governments or businesses directly have rolled off or will soon and the trajectory is still downward on cases. If we look at last Summer it was around this time that cases spiked big time. So far so good this year 🤞🤞🤞

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.
At least NJ and NY are safe for now with no more masks and social distancing forever.:D:cool:
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.
At some point you need to let it fly. Why should I be punished for someone else’s stupidity? I still am willing to give a little due to children but 2 months after they can get the shot I will be fully in the camp of open this thing up and let the idiots gamble with their lives.

*Again, so sorry immunosuppressed people, I’m all for things like vaccine passports to protect you but sadly we’re the minority opinion.
 

lisa12000

Well-Known Member
Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.
Where do you get that anywhere in India is highly vaccinated - it really is not the case at all and especially when delta hit india.

You do seem to think you know a lot about the uk? We have 80% first doses and 58% second doses - our over 60 rates are very very low, so our vaccines are working, our hospitalisations are low, we are finding that those going into hospital are less poorly, and are often in for a day or two and then leaving - we have 10,000 cases a day rather than 2,000 a day 6 weeks ago yet hospital rates are not going up anywhere near the expected rate and long May it continue.

yes we have kept restrictions on personal and social life - yet 20,000 Scotland fans went to london and partied, we have full houses at formula one and golf coming up, full capacity at Wimbledon, 45,000 at the football - so our restrictions seem to be just penalising the individual rather than corporate abd sporting events - so hey people can gather for events that are good for our profile and for middle class sporting events - but hey we can’t have more than 30 at weddings until Monday and they can’t dance and they can’t sing even when more can attend - we can’t have more than 6 people in our homes, we aren’t allowed to leave our country basically without hoop jumping and we are testing a million people a day, schoolchildren twice a week, surge testing everywhere etc

I know where I would rather be! Your country have a greater urge for normality than we will ever have, you will to overcome this is greater (imo), so many people in the uk are still very very afraid - yoy will be in a much better position than we are
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.
As far as s FL, they are middle of the pack. Not a top performer but far from the worst state. Right now FL is at 63% of adults with at least 1 dose. So if FL doesn‘t have a high vaccine rate at 63% of adults, but Mumbai in India dose, then are you saying Mumbai has significantly more than 63% of adults vaccinated? What is the vaccine rate in Mumbai? Do you have anything you can post that shows that?
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.
No where in India was there high vaccination rates. When they were hit roughly 5% IIRC has their first shot. Mumbai has about 17.5% with one dose https://www.thehindu.com/news/natio...-of-population-vaccinated/article34854171.ece
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Top Bottom