Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Even in FL where people aren't exactly falling all over themselves to get vaccinated, around 150k people were newly vaccinated last week. Slow but that's still a pace of 1 million new people in less than 7 weeks (a little under 5% of the population).

Using the FL weekly report which only includes FL residents and the estimated 2020 population of 21.73 million, I calculate 49% of FL residents currently have at least one shot. If the vaccination pace stays steady, it is possible to get to the 60% Israel benchmark in 14 weeks (by 9/24).

Who knows, combined with immunity from infections, the 50% vaccinated number might be enough to get to herd immunity. There are 2,310,881 cases reported to date in FL residents. Estimates from studies are that there were 2-3 times the reported cases in actual infections. Even if we use the low number, that's 21% of the population that potentially has natural immunity and that is skewed to the least vaccinated age groups.

The 60% is just a benchmark too. In Israel their steep drop off occurred around when they hit 55% of the total population vaccinated. Not saying that’s a magic number or that Israel is a perfect match to the US but it is a benchmark we have to look at for ballpark analysis.

Looking at FL today, the last remaining covid mitigations that were put in place by either local governments or businesses directly have rolled off or will soon and the trajectory is still downward on cases. If we look at last Summer it was around this time that cases spiked big time. So far so good this year

 

[lisa12000]

India didn't have 45% of the population fully vaccinated. India also didn't have a vaccine which is extremely effective against the Delta variant available to anybody who wants it and walks into a Walmart store.

If it gets out of control in the US again, it will be among people who chose not to be vaccinated. No reason to continue to have restrictions to protect people who elect not to protect themselves.

India does have a vaccine extremely effective against delta - studies have shown that health workers that had had AZ were NOT infected with the virus or into health few cases got it very mildly! In uk our over 60 rates have hardly gone up at all suggesting high efficacy of AZ

 

[StaceyH_SD]

The issue with the US is that vaccination rates aren’t uniform. So in some places like the Northeast and California you have a lot of people getting the vaccine so those areas should do pretty well on knocking down covid, including the delta variant. However, many other states and even certain areas in states (for example many of the northern and non-coastal counties in CA) the vaccine rate is much lower. Those areas are just going to keep cycling covid outbreaks, and likely spawning and spreading and variants, until enough people in those areas are vaccinated.

I don’t have much concern or sympathy for any adult who refuses to get vaccinated at this point, unless they can’t be vaccinated due to a medical condition. I was just at a restaurant having lunch today when a guy in the booth behind me says, “I would rather retire than get the vaccine”. Ok, dude, but don’t complain to me when covid knocks you on your .

 

[DisneyFan32]

15% of India’s population has at least 1 dose of the vaccine today and that number was smaller when the variant took hold there. They had no good reason to believe the pandemic was over. The US vaccination rate is currently 53.2%. Big difference. In the UK they had a higher percentage vaccinated than India, but their spike in cases is not as extreme as what happened in India. In the UK today 96% of the new delta variant infections are coming in people who are not fully vaccinated. When the variant began to grow they were not vaccinating anyone under 30 yet. That has changed now.

We have no way of knowing if the Delta variant will become a major issue here or if it will follow the path of the UK variant and become the dominant strain but not result in a long term or widespread new wave of infections. So far the mRNA vaccines look to be highly effective vs all variants so people should get vaccinated and then there’s much less to worry about.

I'm scared about Delta variant now. I hope it's worse by fall/winter at end of this year.....is NJ and NY will be safe from Delta variant by this fall/winter?

 

[DonniePeverley]

The 60% is just a benchmark too. In Israel their steep drop off occurred around when they hit 55% of the total population vaccinated. Not saying that’s a magic number or that Israel is a perfect match to the US but it is a benchmark we have to look at for ballpark analysis.

Looking at FL today, the last remaining covid mitigations that were put in place by either local governments or businesses directly have rolled off or will soon and the trajectory is still downward on cases. If we look at last Summer it was around this time that cases spiked big time. So far so good this year

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.

At least NJ and NY are safe for now with no more masks and social distancing forever.

 

[Touchdown]

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.

At some point you need to let it fly. Why should I be punished for someone else’s stupidity? I still am willing to give a little due to children but 2 months after they can get the shot I will be fully in the camp of open this thing up and let the idiots gamble with their lives.

*Again, so sorry immunosuppressed people, I’m all for things like vaccine passports to protect you but sadly we’re the minority opinion.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Why should I be punished for someone else’s stupidity?

Isn’t that why we have lap bars on splash and doors on parking lot trams?

 

[Touchdown]

Isn’t that why we have lap bars on splash and doors on parking lot trams?

Yup, but this time I won’t, the only solution is hiring a bunch of people with blow darts and the J&J vaccine to fix things.

 

[lisa12000]

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.

Where do you get that anywhere in India is highly vaccinated - it really is not the case at all and especially when delta hit india.

You do seem to think you know a lot about the uk? We have 80% first doses and 58% second doses - our over 60 rates are very very low, so our vaccines are working, our hospitalisations are low, we are finding that those going into hospital are less poorly, and are often in for a day or two and then leaving - we have 10,000 cases a day rather than 2,000 a day 6 weeks ago yet hospital rates are not going up anywhere near the expected rate and long May it continue.

yes we have kept restrictions on personal and social life - yet 20,000 Scotland fans went to london and partied, we have full houses at formula one and golf coming up, full capacity at Wimbledon, 45,000 at the football - so our restrictions seem to be just penalising the individual rather than corporate abd sporting events - so hey people can gather for events that are good for our profile and for middle class sporting events - but hey we can’t have more than 30 at weddings until Monday and they can’t dance and they can’t sing even when more can attend - we can’t have more than 6 people in our homes, we aren’t allowed to leave our country basically without hoop jumping and we are testing a million people a day, schoolchildren twice a week, surge testing everywhere etc

I know where I would rather be! Your country have a greater urge for normality than we will ever have, you will to overcome this is greater (imo), so many people in the uk are still very very afraid - yoy will be in a much better position than we are

 

[GoofGoof]

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.

As far as s FL, they are middle of the pack. Not a top performer but far from the worst state. Right now FL is at 63% of adults with at least 1 dose. So if FL doesn‘t have a high vaccine rate at 63% of adults, but Mumbai in India dose, then are you saying Mumbai has significantly more than 63% of adults vaccinated? What is the vaccine rate in Mumbai? Do you have anything you can post that shows that?

 

[correcaminos]

Major metropolis cities like Mumbai in India had high vaccination rates in India, yet the delta virus still sweeped through - because they also had a huge amount unvaccinated. As one poster said, there are huge pockets that aren't vaccinated in America (and i hate to say it Florida doesn't have a high rate). The same scenario is being played out in the UK. There is no evidence to suggest 65-70% achieves herd immunity either.

What it all points down to is the following - if people refuse the vaccine, and the virus sweeps through this population what will be the response? If you have cases going out of control again, there is bound to be more restrictions put back. Surely the sensible approach would be to keep some light restrictions in place for a few more months NOW - like masks. Not down the road when things get out of control again.

No where in India was there high vaccination rates. When they were hit roughly 5% IIRC has their first shot. Mumbai has about 17.5% with one dose https://www.thehindu.com/news/natio...-of-population-vaccinated/article34854171.ece

 

[GoofGoof]

No where in India was there high vaccination rates. When they were hit roughly 5% IIRC has their first shot. Mumbai has about 17.5% with one dose https://www.thehindu.com/news/natio...-of-population-vaccinated/article34854171.ece

Well ok then. That answers my question.

I guess we all have different definitions of high vaccination rate

 

[correcaminos]

Well ok then. That answers my question.

I guess we all have different definitions of high vaccination rate

I chalked it up to incorrect statement being heard somewhere. Let's be real, their decline in cases is due to natural immunity now, not vaccines.

 

[GoofGoof]

I chalked it up to incorrect statement being heard somewhere. Let's be real, their decline in cases is due to natural immunity now, not vaccines.

It’s tragic to see. I have a few co-workers with family over there and some of their stories remind me of our worst nightmares during the pandemic with hospitals overrun and people dying in the streets.

 

[correcaminos]

It’s tragic to see. I have a few co-workers with family over there and some of their stories remind me of our worst nightmares during the pandemic with hospitals overrun and people dying in the streets.

My family no longer lives there but we still have ties through work. Absolutely devastating to watch. Felt so helpless during it all too. I might have sounded crass above, but it was said with sadness watching people suffer so.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

You gotta take the vaccines to the people

"The health district and partners have sought to make shots convenient by bringing pop-up clinics into the community, in settings both traditional and novel — schools and recreation centers, a topless bar and the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign."

Nevada to offer prizes to boost coronavirus vaccinations

Nevada officials are hoping to entice more residents to get vaccinated against COVID-19 with prizes like fishing licenses, college scholarships and $1 million in cash. Nearly 2,000 winners will get a share of raffle prizes worth ...

lasvegassun.com

 

[GoofGoof]

You gotta take the vaccines to the people

"The health district and partners have sought to make shots convenient by bringing pop-up clinics into the community, in settings both traditional and novel — schools and recreation centers, a topless bar and the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign."

Nevada to offer prizes to boost coronavirus vaccinations

Nevada officials are hoping to entice more residents to get vaccinated against COVID-19 with prizes like fishing licenses, college scholarships and $1 million in cash. Nearly 2,000 winners will get a share of raffle prizes worth ...

lasvegassun.com

Whatever it takes

 

[Flugell]

Where do you get that anywhere in India is highly vaccinated - it really is not the case at all and especially when delta hit india.

You do seem to think you know a lot about the uk? We have 80% first doses and 58% second doses - our over 60 rates are very very low, so our vaccines are working, our hospitalisations are low, we are finding that those going into hospital are less poorly, and are often in for a day or two and then leaving - we have 10,000 cases a day rather than 2,000 a day 6 weeks ago yet hospital rates are not going up anywhere near the expected rate and long May it continue.

yes we have kept restrictions on personal and social life - yet 20,000 Scotland fans went to london and partied, we have full houses at formula one and golf coming up, full capacity at Wimbledon, 45,000 at the football - so our restrictions seem to be just penalising the individual rather than corporate abd sporting events - so hey people can gather for events that are good for our profile and for middle class sporting events - but hey we can’t have more than 30 at weddings until Monday and they can’t dance and they can’t sing even when more can attend - we can’t have more than 6 people in our homes, we aren’t allowed to leave our country basically without hoop jumping and we are testing a million people a day, schoolchildren twice a week, surge testing everywhere etc

I know where I would rather be! Your country have a greater urge for normality than we will ever have, you will to overcome this is greater (imo), so many people in the uk are still very very afraid - yoy will be in a much better position than we are

I totally agree with your first 2 paragraphs and have some sympathy with the delay of “freedom day” whilst other things seem to be allowed for corporate sporting events. Though personally I am relieved that individual freedoms are somewhat curtailed as I have no desire to attend such events, or visit pubs or restaurants at the current time. Loving the football on the TV though! Remaining in the U.K. at the moment and avoiding holidays abroad seems eminently sensible both for our citizens and those of the countries we may visit, though I agree very frustrating! I am aware of the financial hardship this may/will cause here and/or abroad but it is of lesser consequence than allowing the disease to spread again.
However I disagree that I would rather be in the USA at the current time, not because I don’t love visiting the country because I do but because of the rather resigned attitude to getting people vaccinated indicated by some on this forum. In the states they are not providing pop up vaccination centres at the rate that we are as far as I can tell. Some states, it appears are resorting to bribery, which if it works is fair enough but we are not in that position. The people are still being vaccinated willingly and in large numbers. To wait an extra four weeks will allow those numbers to increase and should mean that the spread of infection can be contained more successfully.
It is a tough call to make and I appreciate that there are diametrically opposing opinions.
Just to make it clear, as far as I can the capacity and status of the sports events are explained here.

Coronavirus: Prime Minister Boris Johnson extends Covid-19 restrictions with Euro 2020 pilot events to continue

Government says there will about 40,000 fans for final four matches at of Euro 2020 at Wembley; Wimbledon finals on Centre Court to be played at maximum capacity with F1s British GP held at Silverstone under consideration to become test event

www.skysports.com

As for the Scots who chose to come to London for a football match they didn’t have a ticket to, words fail me as they would do in pre COVID times! Maybe a few more expletives now though!

 

[DisneyCane]

You gotta take the vaccines to the people

"The health district and partners have sought to make shots convenient by bringing pop-up clinics into the community, in settings both traditional and novel — schools and recreation centers, a topless bar and the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign."

Nevada to offer prizes to boost coronavirus vaccinations

Nevada officials are hoping to entice more residents to get vaccinated against COVID-19 with prizes like fishing licenses, college scholarships and $1 million in cash. Nearly 2,000 winners will get a share of raffle prizes worth ...

lasvegassun.com

I guess you could always get shots at a topless bar now it's just a slightly different kind.