danlb_2000
Premium Member
File that under "things we knew a year ago, Alex"
Also,
RIP Alex.
Did we? There seems to be good scientific evidence got both sides...
File that under "things we knew a year ago, Alex"
Also,
RIP Alex.
My understanding has been that there's no definitive evidence either way, but that it's rather suspicious that we haven't found the crossover animal yet. (Found for SARS and MERS in one and three months.)Did we? There seems to be good scientific evidence got both sides...
My understanding has been that there's no definitive evidence either way, but that it's rather suspicious that we haven't found the crossover animal yet. (Found for SARS and MERS in one and three months.)
My understanding has been that there's no definitive evidence either way, but that it's rather suspicious that we haven't found the crossover animal yet. (Found for SARS and MERS in one and three months.)
Read the article, it goes a bit into virus makeup and markers and makes a solid case as to why it's not natural.
I've read arguments supporting each side.Read the article, it goes a bit into virus makeup and markers and makes a solid case as to why it's not natural.
People sure seem to be in love with proving they are smart by taking the maxim to "question everything" to the point of absurdity. This time by a breast cancer researcher and a retired physicist (previously known as a former-climate change skeptic), who are apparently now experts in virology of coronaviruses of likely bat origin. And others like to prove they are smart by accepting obscure theories as facts.Meanwhile on the origins front, WSJ published an op-ed by two scientists that it’s more likely then not that not only did the virus escape from a lab, but that it wasn’t naturally occurring or originated.
If you don't want someone to respond, don't post. Now, if China believed they did nothing wrong, why not let the US or EU investigate at the beginning? They have something to hide and everyone knows that. It could easily have been just a lab error and not something nefarious. I believe that is the likely cause, just a terrible mistake. Plus, the reason for not allowing anyone inside was to protect the contracts with US and other groups which funded the lab. In any case, even if the cause were natural, China needed to protect those providing the lab funding. So I am very happy to learn that it was the US that helped pay for China's research and technical advances rather than fund the experiments here with US scientists. US bureaucrats always look out for what is best for the citizens of the US and never do anything unethical or illegal.People sure seem to be in love with proving they are smart by taking the maxim to "question everything" to the point of absurdity. This time by a breast cancer researcher and a retired physicist (previously known as a former-climate change skeptic), who are apparently now experts in virology of coronaviruses of likely bat origin. And others like to prove they are smart by accepting obscure theories as facts.
Since I was on vacation when the lab leak stuff resurfaced, I missed the previous discussion. I've spent a little time over the last day or two, and all I've learned is how easily humans will accept misinterpretations and misrepresentations in order to avoid the threats that come with uncertainty. We really want to know how this happened, and the prospect of never knowing, or that it will take a decade+ like SARS did is intolerable.
The phrases that keep popping up is "never seen before in nature" and "we still haven't found..." The amount of hubris contained in those phrases, to me is overwhelming. The investigation into SARS revealed hundreds of unknown bat coronaviruses, and that was only one species' coronaviruses. The SARS scientists searched bat caves for 8 months and found nothing and thought they were looking in the wrong place, until they decided to look for antibodies, not active virus, which turned up 3 samples that helped direct their research which included another 5 years of heavy sampling at the cave where they eventually found the evidence they needed to prove the origin. And we're convinced that 15 months is too long. Also, when that paper was published there were the same concerns of how SARS got from a bat cave in Yunnan to Guangdong without the people living around the cave in Yunnan from getting sick or having antibodies. What we are learning, is that for as much as we know about coronaviruses there are still mountains of things we don't know, and tons of things occurring in nature all the time that we don't know about because there isn't the impetus or the financing to support it. The newly reported dog-intermediate species-coronavirus should be a hint of all of what we don't know.
When all of this started, and people were talking about how they must have had it in December, my feeling was that another virus was circulating and I guessed that if SARS-CoV-2 didn't exist we would be identifying and talking about that. I was wrong. I think since it wasn't killing people at a high enough rate we would have not investigated the origins and instead chalk it up to the something like 47% of illnesses that are of unknown origin. There would have been no investigation, no surveillance unless someone decided to look for something. Like the scientists who discovered the dog-coronavirus because they got curious to what gave patients in their area Covid-type symptoms but wasn't Covid. All we know is that of what we have bothered to genetically sample and research, it's not there.
This particular theory sounds impressive to lay people because we know we don't have the knowledge to immediately counter the claims, never seen before CGG-CGG except human manipulation. An alternate hypothesis that I have seen postulated by virologists, is that the human coronavirus, HKU1, does have CGG-CGT, a one nucleotide difference. Also a feline coronavirus has a CGG-CGA, sequence. What would nature due with a recombination of bat coronavirus and one of these other species coronavirus? They also point out that the much maligned wet market there is photographic evidence of several species of animals that are susceptible to coronaviruses, like HKU1. The SARS intermediary was confirmed because they tested the animals that were in proximity to the people who contracted SARS, and identified the civet as a likely candidate. In this case, China denies live animals and illegal animals were even present at the market. So what are the odds that all of the potential animals that were there were properly sampled? Or what if the animals of consequence weren't at that particular market but somewhere else in Wuhan (there was more than one market associated with early cases, as well as the potential at an animal farm)? People suspect that the severity of the original outbreak was greater in scale than China reported, so did dealing with the effects of human surveillance from trying to bring the infections under control, impede investigators from conducting the massive animal surveillance that needed to occur? One of the virologists I saw, was frustrated that pangolins were given so much attention early on, that turned out to be a dead end, when there were likelier candidates in their estimation.
China obviously fubar-ed this from the start. IMO, what that proves is Chinese officials are susceptible to the same lay-person ideas that humans, in general, ran with. They had to make some decisions early, for when the International investigators started poking around, and a lab leak was likely at the top of list, and reacted. It was also at the top of Dr. Shi's list, which is why she dove into the samples under study at the WIV. But unlike Dr. Shi who has the experience to decisively eliminate what didn't happen, I suspect the officials hedged...what if despite her saying it wasn't a lab leak, it was? I have no doubt evidence that would have helped prove what happened, has been destroyed. That somebody (likely not a scientist) was worried about the list of "correlations that are not causations" that would be shiny objects for lay people, like them, to grab onto, were manipulated in attempt to minimize the correlations; as well as evidence of things that they shouldn't have been doing that needed to go away. Another correlation that is making the news is the miner connection. I've also seen in virology twitter, that despite the genetic similarities there is no way that RaTG13 (the miner's virus) could actually be a genetic ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, even a human manipulated / Gain of Function one, so all the reports about releasing the medical records of the miners is another example of barking up the wrong tree, and the conspiracy is left without a base virus to manipulate into what was supposedly released.
Proving definitive zoonotic origins requires meticulous and extensive research. The paper confirming the civet genetic connection to SARS didn't come until 2007. The paper confirming the horseshoe bat connection didn't get published until 2017. Both of them had previous educated guesses. But even then, it lacked the necessary confidence until proof came for the civet in 2004 during a later outbreak, and the horseshoe bats to the cave in Yunnan after 5 years of sampling. But they had a solid place to start. This is more like, to bring up a local to me now case, the Jon-Benet Ramsey investigation where during the original investigative period was so messed up that to make another cultural reference, we don't even know "if we're digging in the right place," regarding which animal to search, making the needle in a haystack hunt much harder.
If you don't want someone to respond, don't post. Now, if China believed they did nothing wrong, why not let the US or EU investigate at the beginning? They have something to hide and everyone knows that. It could easily have been just a lab error and not something nefarious. I believe that is the likely cause, just a terrible mistake. Plus, the reason for not allowing anyone inside was to protect the contracts with US and other groups which funded the lab. In any case, even if the cause were natural, China needed to protect those providing the lab funding. So I am very happy to learn that it was the US that helped pay for China's research and technical advances rather than fund the experiments here with US scientists. US bureaucrats always look out for what is best for the citizens of the US and never do anything unethical or illegal.
Drinking lots during Epcot Food and Wine may dull the senses and not think about what has changed but still keep some with a happy face.Fellow Disney fans I believe everything will work out it ain't fast but progress has been steady. COVID19 arrived, WDW and the rest of Disney did what was deemed necessary and Disney has been prevailing. On the good side temp checks (No More), masks (requirements reduced and soon to be gone), social distancing (what?). On the down side the waiting for parades, pyro, character meet and greets, interactive character dining, stage shows and full on dessert parties is a big irritation. Soooo folk's all of that won't solve all the problems of the world but some Dole Whip or maybe something a little stronger and some ever so brief (time does pass quickly when enjoying things) moments at WDW will do for me.
There was one of these studies last year too. But the samples were destroyed in the process so there was no way to re-test to make sure that it was actually SARS-CoV-2 the test found and not another similar coronavirus. Looking at your link, it looks like it is the same thing but as PP mentioned they have a 2nd paper, with only the January 2020. I bet the media conflated the two...again.
I wouldn’t get too attached to the alternate conspiracy theory that it arrived earlier than we thought. As we’ve seen, consistently, where there is actual COVID, the bodies follow. This is not the evidence that disproves lab leak, although that seems to be today’s primary Twitter purpose.
People sure seem to be in love with proving they are smart by taking the maxim to "question everything" to the point of absurdity. This time by a breast cancer researcher and a retired physicist (previously known as a former-climate change skeptic), who are apparently now experts in virology of coronaviruses of likely bat origin. And others like to prove they are smart by accepting obscure theories as facts.
Since I was on vacation when the lab leak stuff resurfaced, I missed the previous discussion. I've spent a little time over the last day or two, and all I've learned is how easily humans will accept misinterpretations and misrepresentations in order to avoid the threats that come with uncertainty. We really want to know how this happened, and the prospect of never knowing, or that it will take a decade+ like SARS did is intolerable.
The phrases that keep popping up is "never seen before in nature" and "we still haven't found..." The amount of hubris contained in those phrases, to me is overwhelming. The investigation into SARS revealed hundreds of unknown bat coronaviruses, and that was only one species' coronaviruses. The SARS scientists searched bat caves for 8 months and found nothing and thought they were looking in the wrong place, until they decided to look for antibodies, not active virus, which turned up 3 samples that helped direct their research which included another 5 years of heavy sampling at the cave where they eventually found the evidence they needed to prove the origin. And we're convinced that 15 months is too long. Also, when that paper was published there were the same concerns of how SARS got from a bat cave in Yunnan to Guangdong without the people living around the cave in Yunnan from getting sick or having antibodies. What we are learning, is that for as much as we know about coronaviruses there are still mountains of things we don't know, and tons of things occurring in nature all the time that we don't know about because there isn't the impetus or the financing to support it. The newly reported dog-intermediate species-coronavirus should be a hint of all of what we don't know.
When all of this started, and people were talking about how they must have had it in December, my feeling was that another virus was circulating and I guessed that if SARS-CoV-2 didn't exist we would be identifying and talking about that. I was wrong. I think since it wasn't killing people at a high enough rate we would have not investigated the origins and instead chalk it up to the something like 47% of illnesses that are of unknown origin. There would have been no investigation, no surveillance unless someone decided to look for something. Like the scientists who discovered the dog-coronavirus because they got curious to what gave patients in their area Covid-type symptoms but wasn't Covid. All we know is that of what we have bothered to genetically sample and research, it's not there.
This particular theory sounds impressive to lay people because we know we don't have the knowledge to immediately counter the claims, never seen before CGG-CGG except human manipulation. An alternate hypothesis that I have seen postulated by virologists, is that the human coronavirus, HKU1, does have CGG-CGT, a one nucleotide difference. Also a feline coronavirus has a CGG-CGA, sequence. What would nature due with a recombination of bat coronavirus and one of these other species coronavirus? They also point out that the much maligned wet market there is photographic evidence of several species of animals that are susceptible to coronaviruses, like HKU1. The SARS intermediary was confirmed because they tested the animals that were in proximity to the people who contracted SARS, and identified the civet as a likely candidate. In this case, China denies live animals and illegal animals were even present at the market. So what are the odds that all of the potential animals that were there were properly sampled? Or what if the animals of consequence weren't at that particular market but somewhere else in Wuhan (there was more than one market associated with early cases, as well as the potential at an animal farm)? People suspect that the severity of the original outbreak was greater in scale than China reported, so did dealing with the effects of human surveillance from trying to bring the infections under control, impede investigators from conducting the massive animal surveillance that needed to occur? One of the virologists I saw, was frustrated that pangolins were given so much attention early on, that turned out to be a dead end, when there were likelier candidates in their estimation.
China obviously fubar-ed this from the start. IMO, what that proves is Chinese officials are susceptible to the same lay-person ideas that humans, in general, ran with. They had to make some decisions early, for when the International investigators started poking around, and a lab leak was likely at the top of list, and reacted. It was also at the top of Dr. Shi's list, which is why she dove into the samples under study at the WIV. But unlike Dr. Shi who has the experience to decisively eliminate what didn't happen, I suspect the officials hedged...what if despite her saying it wasn't a lab leak, it was? I have no doubt evidence that would have helped prove what happened, has been destroyed. That somebody (likely not a scientist) was worried about the list of "correlations that are not causations" that would be shiny objects for lay people, like them, to grab onto, were manipulated in attempt to minimize the correlations; as well as evidence of things that they shouldn't have been doing that needed to go away. Another correlation that is making the news is the miner connection. I've also seen in virology twitter, that despite the genetic similarities there is no way that RaTG13 (the miner's virus) could actually be a genetic ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, even a human manipulated / Gain of Function one, so all the reports about releasing the medical records of the miners is another example of barking up the wrong tree, and the conspiracy is left without a base virus to manipulate into what was supposedly released.
Proving definitive zoonotic origins requires meticulous and extensive research. The paper confirming the civet genetic connection to SARS didn't come until 2007. The paper confirming the horseshoe bat connection didn't get published until 2017. Both of them had previous educated guesses. But even then, it lacked the necessary confidence until proof came for the civet in 2004 during a later outbreak, and the horseshoe bats to the cave in Yunnan after 5 years of sampling. But they had a solid place to start. This is more like, to bring up a local to me now case, the Jon-Benet Ramsey investigation where during the original investigative period was so messed up that to make another cultural reference, we don't even know "if we're digging in the right place," regarding which animal to search, making the needle in a haystack hunt much harder.
However, since we are indulging in speculation...and please, no one respond to this, I can't help but notice that this lab leak re-examination reached critical mass the same time as discussion into the commission into the events of January 6th, and wonder if this is all *squirrel* to things certain factions don't want dominating the news cycle. Bonus points for the anti-China narrative.
I just find it fascinating and compelling that it's possible. I have no dog in the political and nationalism fight. just interested in the outcome, as this would be interesting history if it was a lab issue.People sure seem to be in love with proving they are smart by taking the maxim to "question everything" to the point of absurdity. This time by a breast cancer researcher and a retired physicist (previously known as a former-climate change skeptic), who are apparently now experts in virology of coronaviruses of likely bat origin. And others like to prove they are smart by accepting obscure theories as facts.
Since I was on vacation when the lab leak stuff resurfaced, I missed the previous discussion. I've spent a little time over the last day or two, and all I've learned is how easily humans will accept misinterpretations and misrepresentations in order to avoid the threats that come with uncertainty. We really want to know how this happened, and the prospect of never knowing, or that it will take a decade+ like SARS did is intolerable.
The phrases that keep popping up is "never seen before in nature" and "we still haven't found..." The amount of hubris contained in those phrases, to me is overwhelming. The investigation into SARS revealed hundreds of unknown bat coronaviruses, and that was only one species' coronaviruses. The SARS scientists searched bat caves for 8 months and found nothing and thought they were looking in the wrong place, until they decided to look for antibodies, not active virus, which turned up 3 samples that helped direct their research which included another 5 years of heavy sampling at the cave where they eventually found the evidence they needed to prove the origin. And we're convinced that 15 months is too long. Also, when that paper was published there were the same concerns of how SARS got from a bat cave in Yunnan to Guangdong without the people living around the cave in Yunnan from getting sick or having antibodies. What we are learning, is that for as much as we know about coronaviruses there are still mountains of things we don't know, and tons of things occurring in nature all the time that we don't know about because there isn't the impetus or the financing to support it. The newly reported dog-intermediate species-coronavirus should be a hint of all of what we don't know.
When all of this started, and people were talking about how they must have had it in December, my feeling was that another virus was circulating and I guessed that if SARS-CoV-2 didn't exist we would be identifying and talking about that. I was wrong. I think since it wasn't killing people at a high enough rate we would have not investigated the origins and instead chalk it up to the something like 47% of illnesses that are of unknown origin. There would have been no investigation, no surveillance unless someone decided to look for something. Like the scientists who discovered the dog-coronavirus because they got curious to what gave patients in their area Covid-type symptoms but wasn't Covid. All we know is that of what we have bothered to genetically sample and research, it's not there.
This particular theory sounds impressive to lay people because we know we don't have the knowledge to immediately counter the claims, never seen before CGG-CGG except human manipulation. An alternate hypothesis that I have seen postulated by virologists, is that the human coronavirus, HKU1, does have CGG-CGT, a one nucleotide difference. Also a feline coronavirus has a CGG-CGA, sequence. What would nature due with a recombination of bat coronavirus and one of these other species coronavirus? They also point out that the much maligned wet market there is photographic evidence of several species of animals that are susceptible to coronaviruses, like HKU1. The SARS intermediary was confirmed because they tested the animals that were in proximity to the people who contracted SARS, and identified the civet as a likely candidate. In this case, China denies live animals and illegal animals were even present at the market. So what are the odds that all of the potential animals that were there were properly sampled? Or what if the animals of consequence weren't at that particular market but somewhere else in Wuhan (there was more than one market associated with early cases, as well as the potential at an animal farm)? People suspect that the severity of the original outbreak was greater in scale than China reported, so did dealing with the effects of human surveillance from trying to bring the infections under control, impede investigators from conducting the massive animal surveillance that needed to occur? One of the virologists I saw, was frustrated that pangolins were given so much attention early on, that turned out to be a dead end, when there were likelier candidates in their estimation.
China obviously fubar-ed this from the start. IMO, what that proves is Chinese officials are susceptible to the same lay-person ideas that humans, in general, ran with. They had to make some decisions early, for when the International investigators started poking around, and a lab leak was likely at the top of list, and reacted. It was also at the top of Dr. Shi's list, which is why she dove into the samples under study at the WIV. But unlike Dr. Shi who has the experience to decisively eliminate what didn't happen, I suspect the officials hedged...what if despite her saying it wasn't a lab leak, it was? I have no doubt evidence that would have helped prove what happened, has been destroyed. That somebody (likely not a scientist) was worried about the list of "correlations that are not causations" that would be shiny objects for lay people, like them, to grab onto, were manipulated in attempt to minimize the correlations; as well as evidence of things that they shouldn't have been doing that needed to go away. Another correlation that is making the news is the miner connection. I've also seen in virology twitter, that despite the genetic similarities there is no way that RaTG13 (the miner's virus) could actually be a genetic ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, even a human manipulated / Gain of Function one, so all the reports about releasing the medical records of the miners is another example of barking up the wrong tree, and the conspiracy is left without a base virus to manipulate into what was supposedly released.
Proving definitive zoonotic origins requires meticulous and extensive research. The paper confirming the civet genetic connection to SARS didn't come until 2007. The paper confirming the horseshoe bat connection didn't get published until 2017. Both of them had previous educated guesses. But even then, it lacked the necessary confidence until proof came for the civet in 2004 during a later outbreak, and the horseshoe bats to the cave in Yunnan after 5 years of sampling. But they had a solid place to start. This is more like, to bring up a local to me now case, the Jon-Benet Ramsey investigation where during the original investigative period was so messed up that to make another cultural reference, we don't even know "if we're digging in the right place," regarding which animal to search, making the needle in a haystack hunt much harder.
However, since we are indulging in speculation...and please, no one respond to this, I can't help but notice that this lab leak re-examination reached critical mass the same time as discussion into the commission into the events of January 6th, and wonder if this is all *squirrel* to things certain factions don't want dominating the news cycle. Bonus points for the anti-China narrative.
Amen brother. It‘s great to see the progress being made towards returning to normal. For the average American WDW is probably an after thought but to the people it matters to it’s a symbol of hope and a symbol of joy returning to the world. Little things like seeing your favorite restaurant come back or seeing the plexiglass being removed from your favorite ride or seeing characters return to meals and other venues are all signs of the slow and steady return to normal. It seems like night shows and other entertainment are coming back soon as well.Fellow Disney fans I believe everything will work out it ain't fast but progress has been steady. COVID19 arrived, WDW and the rest of Disney did what was deemed necessary and Disney has been prevailing. On the good side temp checks (No More), masks (requirements reduced and soon to be gone), social distancing (what?). On the down side the waiting for parades, pyro, character meet and greets, interactive character dining, stage shows and full on dessert parties is a big irritation. Soooo folk's all of that won't solve all the problems of the world but some Dole Whip or maybe something a little stronger and some ever so brief (time does pass quickly when enjoying things) moments at WDW will do for me.
You misunderstood that when I said don’t respond, I was referring to only the final bit about the timing of the sudden media interest in the US. To save some headaches for the thread mods.If you don't want someone to respond, don't post. Now, if China believed they did nothing wrong, why not let the US or EU investigate at the beginning? They have something to hide and everyone knows that. It could easily have been just a lab error and not something nefarious. I believe that is the likely cause, just a terrible mistake. Plus, the reason for not allowing anyone inside was to protect the contracts with US and other groups which funded the lab. In any case, even if the cause were natural, China needed to protect those providing the lab funding. So I am very happy to learn that it was the US that helped pay for China's research and technical advances rather than fund the experiments here with US scientists. US bureaucrats always look out for what is best for the citizens of the US and never do anything unethical or illegal.
As long as people are willing to accept evidence that it wasn’t a lab leak even if it takes years, with the same fervor that they are falling over themselves with now. Zoonotic, comparatively, will be boring and time consuming and not the stuff that tickles the fancy of theorists. I am concerned that people have already decided it MUST be a lab leak and any evidence to the contrary is proof of the extent of the conspiracy.I just find it fascinating and compelling that it's possible. I have no dog in the political and nationalism fight. just interested in the outcome, as this would be interesting history if it was a lab issue.
Also, didn't they find patients as far back as November (France I believe) with COVID?
This is the attitude - We can't stop living to prevent dying. Fortunately lockdowns were in place to prevent the spread .The evidence on lockdowns is inconclusive. For every legit study that shows correlation there is a legit study that shows the opposite. It will take years of analysis to figure out whether the lockdown experiment worked
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